inflation and deflation
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Inflation and Deflation. How do we define inflation?. “A continuing increase in the general price level”. But let’s focus on some key words in the definition. Inflation defined…. Continuing means the increase must be occurring over a period of time, not just a one time increase - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Inflation and Deflation
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How do we define inflation?
“A continuing increase in the general price level”. But let’s focus on some key words in the definition
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Inflation defined….
Continuing means the increase must be occurring over a period of time, not just a
one time increaseIncrease refers to the rising price level of
goods and services on average, not every good and service in the economy
General price level is an average of prices of goods and services in the entire
economy
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How do we define deflation?
“A continuing decrease in the general price level”. (the same descriptions
apply here as in the definition of inflation)
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How are inflation and deflation expressed?
As a percentage change of the general price level that has occurred over the
course of a year (although shorter time periods are also calculated).
Inflation is much more commonly seen than deflation
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Changes in the price level vs. changes in rate of
inflation Consider this: In one year we have an
increase in the general price level of 5%, followed the next year by an
increase in the general price level of 7%.
What can we say is happening to the price level and inflation rate in both
years?
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Changes in the price level vs. changes in rate of
inflation Now assume we have an increase in the general price level of 10%, followed
the next year by an increase in the general price level of 7%.
What can we say is happening to the price level?
What can we say about the rate of inflation?
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Causes of inflation
There are three causes of inflation. Can you recall any or all of these?
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Demand-pull inflation
This type of inflation is caused by increases in AD which move the
economy beyond the equilibrium level of real GDP and the equilibrium price
level. Demand-pull inflation is associated
with an inflationary gap, and the unemployment rate falls below the
natural rate of unemployment.
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Demand-pull inflation
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How to deal with demand-pull inflation?Simple, just reduce AD by enacting contractionary fiscal policy or “tight-
money” monetary policy. This should bring the AD curve back to
the equilibrium level of real GDP and lower the average price level.
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Cost-push inflation
This type of inflation is caused by increases in costs of production which
move the economy below the equilibrium level of real GDP and above
the equilibrium price level. You can also think of this as the
negative supply-shock phenomenon as input costs rise and firms supply less
output.
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Cost-push inflation
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How to deal with cost-push inflation?
It depends. If increasing wage rates are the root of the problem, the supply-
side folks have lots of ideas.If the problem is caused by increasing
commodity prices (like oil), efforts to reduce oil consumption could lead to lower prices, as demand for oil falls, but this won’t happen overnight…
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More sources of cost-push inflation
Monopolies and/or oligopolies may behave in a manner as to increase prices to raise profits. Supply-side
policies to dismantle these firms may be in order.
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More sources of cost-push inflation
A depreciating domestic currency may increase input costs for firms if they
use foreign goods in production. Efforts to reduce reliance on imports
could solve this problem.
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Excessive growth in the money supply
Monetarists argue that changes in the money supply affect the general price
level. They use the quantity equation on the
next slide to express their views…
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Quantity Equation
M X V = P X QWhere M = money supply
V= velocity of money (or circulation)P = price
Q = quantity of output
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M X V = P X Q
M X V = total spending in the economyP X Q = nominal value of GDP
Because total spending and the value of GDP are equal as we learned when
discussing the three methods of calculating GDP, the equation is true.
Now let’s go further…
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M X V = P X Q
Monetarists make two assumptions: V is stable over short periods of time
Q is determined by quantity and quality of factors of production, not the
supply of money or the price levelSo any change in M will directly affect
P
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Inflation due to increase in money supply
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Inflation due to increase in money supply
Monetarists argue that increasing the money supply (M) will shift AD to the right as C and I spending increase.
In the short-run, output increases and price level does too, but in the long-run, output returns to the equilibrium level and all we have is a higher price
level (P)
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Monetarists believe:
The long-run happens quickly, so gains in output are short-lived
Demand-side policies can’t increase real GDP in the long-run
In benchmarks for increasing money supply (GDP grows by 3%, increase the
money supply by 3%)
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Last word on monetarism
The monetarist conclusions are subject to debate. Their conclusions about the
relationship b/w money supply and inflation holds in the long-run, but not
so much in the short-runOne thing is clear, if you want
hyperinflation, you must increase the money supply!
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Costs of inflation
One cost is the loss of purchasing power. If your income remains
constant and the general price level rises, your purchasing power has
decreased. You can no longer buy the same quantity of goods if the price level is
increasing more rapidly than your real income
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Costs of inflation
Inflation redistributes income from one group to another. If you have a fixed
income and the inflation rate begins to rise, you end up with less money than
before. Who fits in this category?
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Fixed income folks
Workers with fixed wage contractsPensionersLandlords
Welfare recipients
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Other Inflation losers
Holders of cashPeople who save moneyPeople who lend money
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Inflation Winners
BorrowersPayers of fixed incomes or wages
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Other Inflation Problems
Firms get antsy when it is difficult to predict what is happening with the general price level. They may be
unwilling to invest in new capital goods if they fear customers may lose purchasing power in the future.
This general level of uncertainty may slow economic growth.
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Other Inflation Problems
Menu costs suggest that firms will incur large printing costs as the general
price level fluctuates. Sounds silly, but this can still be a real
expense for a firm if they have to constantly redo their pricing lists.
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Other Inflation Problems
A “money illusion” may fool people into thinking they are doing better than
they really are. If you get a 10% raise at work, but the
inflation rate is 15%, you are obviously worse off, but if you are not paying close attention to the general price level, you might make some foolish
spending decisions
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Other Inflation Problems
If a country is experiencing inflation, it’s exports become more expensive to
foreign nations and imports become cheaper than domestically produced
goods.This can severely disrupt a country’s
trade position and balance of payments
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Hyperinflation
Inflation gone wild. If the price level increases by 50% a month, you have
hyperinflation. An inflationary spiral results and a
massive disruption of economic activity occurs. The barter system may take over and significant social problems
often follow
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Causes of deflation
Deflation is a very rare occurrence for several reasons:
Worker’s wages rarely fall, so firms tend to not lower the price of the goods
they sellOligopolies abhor price warsFirms try to avoid menu costs
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Causes of deflation
Decreases in AD may eventually lead to a decrease in the general price level.
Unfortunately, recession often accompanies this change, as do falling incomes and output, as well as cyclical
unemployment. This is what happened during the Great
Depression of the 1930s.
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Decreasing AD
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How to deal with less AD?
Obviously expansionary fiscal policy and “easy” monetary policy would be in order to shift the AD curve back to
the original position
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Increases in AS
The “good” deflation may occur when the AS curve shifts to the right, thus
lowering the average price level while output increases.
Economic expansion, rising incomes and output, increasing employment and economic growth may all occur.
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Costs of deflation
Redistribution of income (opposite as during inflation)
Uncertainty for firms may lead to lack of investment
Menu costs again…..A deflationary spiral may result as borrowers
are discouraged from taking loans, and spending slows by consumers as they expect prices to continue to fall and AD continues to
fall….
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Add it all up….
With deflation, the real value of debt rises, the economy is in recession,
incomes are falling and bankruptcies result as borrowers are unable to pay
back loans. A major financial crisis could easily
occur.