industrial investment banking round-up · 2021. 4. 16. · industrial investment banking round-up...

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpPaper and PackagingAs of January 15th, 2021

Earning Announcements

• Ennis reported earnings: Sales declined 20% to $92 million; Adjusted EBITDA declined 17% to $16 million

Mergers & Acquisitions

Private Equity

• Domtar entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Personal Care business to American Industrial Partners for $920 million

• TricorBraun agreed to be acquired by Ares Management and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board

• SK Capital Partners acquired Lacerta Group, a manufacturer of specialty thermoformed packaging solutions

• Drew Foam and Huntington Foam, owned by Wynnchurch Capital, acquired Insulation Corporation of America

• Altamont Capital Partners acquired Specialized Packaging Group, a manufacturer of protective packaging

• Gen Cap America acquired Frontier Packaging

• Circle Graphics, owned by H.I.G. Capital, acquired Graphik Dimensions

• Selig Group, owned by CC Industries, acquired Performance Systematix

• H.I.G. Capital acquired Action Point and Signature Flexible Packaging

• Doxim, owned by GI Partners, acquired Laser Print Plus

• Imperial Dade, owned by Bain Capital, entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Industrial Soap Company

• Circle Graphics, owned by H.I.G Capital, concluded an association agreement with Prismaflex International

• Kelso & Co. acquired Inmark, a distributor of rigid container and life sciences packaging, from Quad-C

• Drew Foam, owned by Wynnchurch Capital, acquired Huntington Solutions from Mill Point Capital

• Berlin Packaging, owned by Canada Pension Plan and Oak Hill Capital, acquired Newpack in Savona, Italy

• Imperial Dade, owned by Bain Capital, entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Paper Chemical Supply

• Novatech , owned by Trivest Partners, acquired United Laser

• Morgan Stanley Capital Partners acquired AWT Labels & Packaging and Citation Healthcare Labels from Mason Wells

• Novolex, owned by The Carlyle Group, acquired the business of B&H Bag Company

Strategic

• Glatfelter Corporation signed a definitive agreement to purchase Georgia-Pacific’s U.S. nonwovens business for $175 million

• BluEdge acquired Vernon Display Graphics

• Vault Promotions acquired the assets of Gateway Marketing Concepts, also known as GMCline

• Graphic Dimensions acquired certain assets of SpeedFlo Business Forms of Lexington, KY

• Revere Plastics Systems acquired Alliance-McAlpin NY and Alliance-McAlpin MX from Alliance Precision Plastics Corporation

• Avery Dennison acquired the business of Ohio-based ACPO Ltd. for $88 million

• Ennis entered into a Letter of Intent to acquire the assets and assume some liabilities of Infoseal LLC

• Primary Packaging acquired Packaging Horizons

• Bunzl Canada acquired Snelling Paper & Sanitation and its subsidiary Sur-Seal Packaging

• Signet acquired Sheridan Specialty Bindery, the assets formerly operated as Kingsport Book, from CJK Group

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpBuilding ProductsAs of January 15th, 2021

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

Feb-21 Apr-11 May-31 Jul-20 Sep-08 Oct-28 Dec-17(60%)

(45%)

(30%)

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Feb-21 Apr-11 May-31 Jul-20 Sep-08 Oct-28 Dec-17

Building Products Market Perspective• Economic conditions reeled last week as the Labor Department reported 965,000 new unemployment claims, well above

economists’ estimates of 800,000 and the prior week’s total of 784,000

– This week represented the highest level of initial unemployment claims since the week of August 22nd

– The Labor Department also reported continuing unemployment claims of 5.27 million, an increase of 199,000. This week represented the first week of increasing unemployment claims since late November

– Economists are predicting a slow start in 2021, with conditions steadily improving as the COVID-19 vaccine achieves mass distribution

• Median home prices for the last 4 weeks grew 13.6% compared to the prior year, marking the 22nd consecutive week of double-digit price growth

– With mortgage rates approaching record lows, homebuyers are less concerned with rising home prices as their monthly mortgage payments remain low and affordable

– The average time on market for listings fell by 12 days compared to the prior year, demonstrating homebuyers continued demand

• Associated Builders and Contractors’ (ABC) Construction Backlog Indicator improved modestly to 7.3 months in December, an increase of 0.1 months from November

– ABC’s Construction Confidence Sales Index rose above 50, signaling that contractors expect sales to grow over the next six months despite lower backlog and profit margins compared to the prior year

– Contractors are anticipating growth throughout this year and the next due to the U.S. economy gradually reopening in the latter half of 2021 as well as pent-up consumer demand driving a robust backlog throughout the rest of the year and into 2022

• Builders FirstSource completed its merger with BMC Stock Holdings, creating a premier building products distributor with combined sales of ~$12 billion and a network of 550 distribution centers across 44 of the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas

Sources: CNBC, Realtor.com, Wall Street ResearchNote: Market data as of 01/13/2021; Manufacturing (Large Cap): ALLE, AOS, ASX:JHX, CSL, FBHS, HUBB, IR, LII, MAS, MHK, NYSE:CNR, OC, SHW, SWK; Manufacturing (Mid Cap): AAON, AMWD, AWI, AYI, BCC, CREE, CVCO, DOOR, FRTA, GFF, JELD, LPX, NYSE:LCII, PATK, ROCK, SSD, TILE, TREX, TSX:OSB, WMS; Manufacturing (Small Cap): AFI, APOG, CSTE, DXYN, IIIN, LYTS, NX, NYSE:SKY, PGTI, TGLS; Distribution / Installation: BECN, BLD, BLDR, BMCH, BXC, FBM, GMS, HDS, IBP, POOL, SIC, SITE, TSX:HDI, UFPI, WSO


For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the individuals listed below:Building Products Team

Public Company Stock Performance Since February 21 Public Company Trading Performance Since February 21

15%

16%

14%

15%

14.7x

10.1x

Manufacturing (Large Cap) Manufacturing (Mid Cap) Manufacturing (Small Cap) Distribution / Installation S&P 500

13.4x47%

Pat CurryManaging Director

Head of Building Products

212.476.7428

[email protected]

J.R. Doolos Managing Director

Industrial M&A

216.689.7674

[email protected]

Cole MorrisonAnalyst

Building Products

212.476.7477

[email protected]

Ali Zahrieh Associate

Building Products

212.476.7467

[email protected]

(Enterprise Value / Next-Twelve-Months EBITDA)(Indexed to 0%)

10.0x

Jan-13 Jan-13

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpChemicals & Materials

As of January 15th, 2021

Chemicals & Materials Market Perspectives• The Chemicals indexes powered through the year-end strongly, with Specialties up 6.6% and Commodities / Diversifieds up 9.3%

– COVID vaccines and additional government stimulus continue to support strong market performance

• M&A volumes continue to build coming into the New Year, supported by strong leveraged financing markets. Corporates continue to pursue M&A – both

acquisitions and divestitures – at an active pace

– PPG will acquire Karl Worwag

– Recochem acquired Paint Over Rust Products

– United Mining Supply acquired Alteo Holding

– Wynnchurch acquired Insulation Corporation of America

– PPG will acquire VersaFlex

– USALCO acquired Al Chem Specialties / CalChem

– PPC acquired Vertellus

– Ascend acquired Eurostar Engineering Plastics

– Neogen Corporation acquired Megazyme

– ICP acquired Gardner-Gibson

– Albi Protective Coatings acquired Dux Paints

– Oqema acquired Claus Nitsche & Sohn

– NDS Group acquired Sola Shipping

– Akzo acquired New Nautical Coatings

– Seal for Life acquired Canusa from Shawcor

– Aceto acquired IsleChem

– Brenntag Canada acquired Alpha Chemical

– PPG made an offer to acquire Tikkurila

– One Rock will acquire a division/manufacturing site of BASF

(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Jan-20 Jan-21

Specialties Commodities / Diversified S&P 500

10-Yr. Avg 1-Yr. Avg 3-Mon. Avg. 1-Mon. Avg.

Specialties 10.8x 14.7x 15.7x 16.0x

Commodities / Diversified 7.0x 8.4x 9.1x 9.4x

9.6x

Sources: Capital IQ as of 1/14/2021

Commodities / Diversified: ASIX, ENXTPA:AKE, ASH, XTRA:BAS, BOVESPA:BRKM5, CBT, SWX:CLN, CE, NYSE:CF, CINR, NYSE:CMP, XTRA:1COV, NYSE:UAN, Dow, EMN, XTRA:EVK,NYSE: FOE, HUN, IPHS, TASE: ICL, KPLUY, ENXTAM:DSM, KOP,

KRA, KRO, LXS, LYB, TSX:MX, MTX, TSX:NTR, OLN, BMV:ORBIA *,AVNT, SASE:2010,SOLB, LSE:SYNT,CC,NYSE:MOS,NYSE:MOS,TSE,TROX,VNTR,WLK, XTRA:WCH,OB:YAR

Specialty: NasdaqGS:AGFS, APD, ENXTAM:AKZA, ALB, AVD, AXTA, BCPC, CCMP, CBM,LSE:CRDA, NYSE:CTVA,NYSE:DD,ECL, ESI, ENTG, FMC, GIVN, FUL, HXL, XTRA:HEN3,NGVT, IFF, ENXTPA:AI, LIN, LONN, NEU, PPG, KWR, RPM, SXT, SY1,

SHW, GRA

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank

N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report

was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a

complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial

situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

Trading Perspectives by Sector

For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the individuals listed below:

Chemicals and Materials Team

Chris Hogan

Managing Director

Chemicals M&A

216.689.3447

[email protected]

Luke Korney

Associate

Chemicals & Materials

216.689.4716

[email protected]

Trent Glasser

Analyst

Chemicals & Materials

216.689.3318

[email protected]

David Ruf

Managing Director

Head of Chemicals & Materials

212.476.7424

[email protected]

Share Price Performance by Sector Enterprise Value / NTM EBITDA

16.4x

7.0x

25.7%

16.7%

% of 52-Week High: 99.3%

% of 52-Week High: 97.0%

10.7x

10-Yr. Avg.

10-Yr. Avg.

16.0%

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

Jan-20 Jan-21Specialties Commodities / Diversified

10-Yr. 1-Yr. 3-Mon. 1-Mon.

Specialties 177.6% 25.7% 10.3% 6.6%

Commodities / Diversified 11.3% 16.7% 21.7% 9.3%

S&P 500 194.6% 16.0% 9.2% 4.5%

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpDiversified IndustrialsAs of January 15th, 2021

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

Sources: Wall Street Research; Capital IQ market data as of 1/12/21Capital Goods: CFX, GNRC, LECO, MTW, THR, TNC; Construction: ASTE, CAT, DE, MTW, TEX; Engineered Components: EPAC, HI, KMT, NPO, NVT; Flow Control / Water: AOS, AQUA, BMI, FELE, PNR, WTS, XYL; Food Equipment: ITW, JBT, MIDD, WBT; Industrial Technology: CTS, GGG, IEX, LFUS, NDSN; Large Cap Diversifieds: AME, DOV, EMR, ETN, HON, ITW, JCI, PH; Power Transmission: AIMC, RBC, RXN, TKR; Diversified Index: Average of all indexes


For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the individuals listed below:Diversified Industrials Team

Marco PalacioVice President

216.689.3096

[email protected]

Luke KorneyAssociate

216.689.4716

[email protected]

Chris RoehmManaging Director

312.730.2708

[email protected]

TJ MonicoManaging Director

216.689.3079

[email protected]

Jeff JohnstonManaging Director, M&A

216.689.4115

[email protected]

Connor WillseyAnalyst

312.730.2790

[email protected]

21.1x

Diversified Industrials EV / LTM EBITDA Trading Dashboard

19.6x

17.8x

24.5x

20.7x

19.5x

12.5x13.2x

18.7x

Overall, diversified industrials sector valuations have fully recovered, and in most cases exceeded pre-pandemic levels

Category Current1-Month

Avg.r vs.

1-MonthLTM Avg.

r vs. LTM

Industrial Technology 24.5x 23.4x 1.2x 19.0x 5.6x

Food Equipment 21.1x 20.5x 0.6x 16.5x 4.6x

Construction 20.7x 19.3x 1.5x 13.6x 7.1x

Capital Goods 19.6x 18.3x 1.3x 13.7x 5.8x

Flow Control / Water 19.5x 18.3x 1.2x 15.2x 4.4x

Diversified Index 18.7x 17.8x 0.9x 13.8x 4.9x

Large Cap Diversifieds 17.8x 17.3x 0.5x 13.9x 3.9x

Power Transmission 13.2x 12.6x 0.7x 9.8x 3.4x

Engineered Components 12.5x 11.8x 0.7x 10.1x 2.4x

Recent Trends in ManufacturingHistorical Y/Y Industrial Production by Sub-Sector

Industrial Production Continues Improving Trend• Industrial Production in November 2020 declined (5.5%) y/y vs. (5.0%) in

October 2020’s revised reading of (5.0%)

• The Manufacturing Index fell (3.6)% y/y vs. an October y/y figure of (3.5%) and has now been negative y/y for 17 consecutive months

• No subsectors were positive contributors to the Y/Y Index in November, although Automotive was neutral (0.0%) during the month

• The largest declines were seen in Mining / O&G (1.8%), Other Durables (1.4%), Utilities / Other (1.1%), Nondurables (0.9%), and Machinery (0.3%)

• Prior y/y Industrial Production down cycles (since the early 1970s) have averaged ~16 consecutive months vs. the current trend of 15 months

Industrial Themes for 2021

Swing Factors

Vaccine Distribution: The inoculation rate is the primary input to the pace of economic recovery

New Administration Policy Action: Timing and scope of policy changes and initiatives surrounding infrastructure, climate, trade, and tax, could have meaningful implications on several industrial subsectors

Varied Cycle Valuations by Vertical: Conflicting opinions on earlier cycle verticals warranting true mid-cycle multiples (e.g., truck, auto, residential construction)

Potential Risk

Tough Comps for COVID-19 Beneficiaries:Those with meaningful sales contribution from COVID-19 applications in 2020, such as providers of janitorial / sanitization equipment, may have one-time voids to fill

Interest Rates & Inflation: Potential tightening of monetary policy and / or above trend inflation may impact business investment, particularly in 2H

Ongoing COVID-19 Headwinds: Accelerating cases could result in extended facility closures and delay the anticipated recovery in industrial activity

Potential Opportunity

Cyclical Reacceleration: Optimism for the economy reopening as vaccines become available supports positive cyclical inflection in 2021 and improving fundamentals for longer-cycle industrials

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow: Names with balance sheet optionality to take advantage of growth opportunities, potentially elevated M&A activity, and / or share buybacks

Sector Rotation: Continued rotation from growth to value sectors could provide price support into 2021

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpIndustrial & Business Services

As of January 15th, 2021

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its

licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our

research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied

upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This

report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the individuals listed below:

Industrial & Business Services Team

Ed Hertz

Director, I&BS

216.689.5006

[email protected]

Steve Meehan

Associate, I&BS

216.689.3494

[email protected]

Luke Korney

Associate, I&BS

216.689.4716

[email protected]

Industrial & Business Services Subsector Median Trading Multiples

Steve Hughes

Managing Director, I&BS

216.689.4101

[email protected]

Field Services Construction Services Engineering & Consulting

Waste & Environmental Staffing / Training / Security Rental Services

Trent Glasser

Analyst, I&BS

216.689.3318

[email protected]

Jeff Johnston

Managing Director, M&A

216.689.4115

[email protected]

Industrial & Business Services Market Perspectives

In a year-end rush, Congress reached a deal on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package and a $1.4 trillion appropriations package

which will fund government agencies and construction programs through September 2021; levels of construction spending were

generally held at levels similar to 2020. However, with the new Presidential Administration and Democratic control of both houses

of Congress, industry executives are hopeful that additional infrastructure investment can be passed

• While the omnibus spending bill held the highway obligation ceiling at the 2020 level of ~$46 billion, the coronavirus relief bill

included $10 billion to help state highway agencies make up for losses in state fuel taxes due to the pandemic-related drop in

traffic during 2020

– The bill enumerates several uses for the money, including preventative or routine maintenance, capital projects, operations and other

personnel expenses

– Industry groups believe that the new funding should keep a number of road projects from getting cancelled or delayed

• According to CDC guidelines for distribution of the coronavirus vaccines, many Industrial & Business Services employees will

qualify for phase 1c of rollout as essential workers in fields like construction, infrastructure, utilities and transportation

– This phase is expected to start between February and March 2021, if the vaccination program goes smoothly

• Fiber installation connecting macro cell sites is expected to increase in 2021 as providers prepare to bring 5G to smaller cities

to help meet continued demand for bandwidth and remote access well into 2021 and beyond

– Everstream has announced a fiber buildout in the Midwest to connect cities across Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio

• Security firms are using visual analytics tools to better manage foot traffic and limit crowd size in an effort to help control spread

of the coronavirus without shutdowns

– A lidar-powered system has been installed at the Orlando International Airport to help improve adherence to social distancing protocols

7.4x 8.8x

10.1x 11.2x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

5.8x 5.6x

7.8x 8.2x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

11.8x 12.4x 13.4x 14.3x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

12.2x 13.2x 13.5x 13.3x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

10.2x 11.3x

13.2x 13.5x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

10.3x 11.5x

13.3x 13.7x

6/30/2020 9/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/13/2021

Industrial Investment Banking Round-UpDistributionAs of January 15th, 2021

Distribution Market Perspectives

• The final weeks of 2020 closed with emergency use authorizations for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to begin widespread distribution, with an estimated 32 million doses distributed globally as of January 13th

– Vaccinations within the U.S. began with front-line workers on December 14th with 10.8 million doses administered over the past month

• A Federal Reserve survey of U.S. business conditions found a majority of the country has experienced modest growth to start the year only the New York, Philadelphia and Cleveland districts reported weakened economic activity since mid-December

• Supplier deliveries continued to slow through December with the ISM Supplier Deliveries Index reaching 67.6, up from 61.6 in November (higher values indicate slowing deliveries) labor availability and increased uncertainty regarding future economic conditions have been the primary causes

– Recent spikes in COVID-19 outbreaks globally have caused significant supply chain issues, even as strong consumer demand drives production growth manufacturing achieved its seventh consecutive month of growth in December

• West Coast ports have started the new year with a similar trend to the back half of 2020 increased port volumes and labor shortages are causing congestion that is delaying nearly a quarter of all goods for more than five days

– Labor shortages in other industries, such as trucking and warehousing, have caused further slowing at ports and led to delays across entire supply chains recent survey respondents indicated that December was the most challenging labor month during the pandemic

• The 2021 BDO Manufacturing CFO Outlook Survey indicated that ~50% of all middle-market manufacturers plan to identify and utilize alternative and backup suppliers during the current year

– Additionally, a quarter of respondents indicated plans to relocate supply chains to a different country in 2021, with a majority listing Europe as the most stable market to relocate to outside of the U.S.

Other manufacturers (22% of respondents) plan to address supply chain weakness by reshoring to the United States in 2021

• Distributors across industries continue to see positive performance in equity markets, with all sub-sectors achieving positive growth in the past 30 days with relatively flat valuations

Sources: Bloomberg, Supply Chain Dive, Industrial Distribution1 Leverage = Index Average Net Debt / NTM EBITDADisclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

Public Company 30-Day Stock Performance

(Indexed to 0.0%)

Public Company 30-Day Trading Performance

(EV / NTM EBITDA)

John [email protected]

Will [email protected]

Sam BeecherSenior [email protected]

TJ MonicoManaging DirectorHead of [email protected]

Jeff JohnstonManaging DirectorHead of M&[email protected]

For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the Distribution Team individuals listed below:

Note: Market Data as of 1/13//2020; BL / Ind MRO: AIT, BOSN, FAST, GWW, HDS, LAWS, MSM, PKOH, SYX; O&G: DXPE, MRC, DNOW; Tech / E / E: ARW, AVT, BDC, ECM, HWCC, RXL, SNX, TRNS, WCC; Food / Foods: BNZL, CHEF, CORE, PFGC, SYY, UNFI, USFD; Chem: BNR, DKSH, IMCD, UNVR; Vehicle: AAP, AZO, DORM, GPC, LKQ, MPAA, ORLY, SMP, UNS; BP: BECN, BMCH, BLDR, BXC, FERG, FBM, GMS, HDI, RCH; Other: POOL, SITE, WSO

Broadline / Industrial MROOil & Gas

Technology / Electronics / ElectricalFood / Foodservice

ChemicalsVehicle Aftermarket

Building ProductsOther Specialty Distributors

S&P 500

1-Mo. 1-Wk. 1-Yr.

24% 5% (33%)

11% 0% 4%

10% 1% 62%

9% 3% 35%

9% 2% 37%

8% 3% 11

6% 1% (3%)

4% 2% 16%

1% 1% 27%

Average

Today 1-Mo. 1-Wk. 1-Yr. Lev.1

26.4x 25.7x 26.8x 23.7x 1.2x

18.2x 17.7x 18.4x 16.9x 2.2x

16.5x 16.5x 16.6x 14.2x 1.5x

13.9x 13.5x 13.9x 13.1x 4.0x

12. 9x 12.4x 12.8x 12.8x 1.9x

12.5x 12.1x 12.4x 10.8x 2.2x

10.7x 10.9x 10.6x 10.5x 2.7x

9.8x 8.7x 9.2x 8.6x 3.2x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

Dec-14 Dec-24 Jan-03 Jan-13(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Dec-14 Dec-24 Jan-03 Jan-13

1

Global metals & mining review

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.,

Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed

securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does

not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general

information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

Aluminum▪ ELYSIS, a joint venture between Alcoa and Rio Tinto, has completed construction of a new R&D facility in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-

Jean, Quebec. The facility will be dedicated to developing carbon-free aluminum at commercial scale. Full scale R&D is

expected to begin in the 1H of 2021, with a target of commercializing the production technology by 2024

▪ Rio Tinto has announced plans to invest $8.4 million to construct an aluminum remelt furnace at its facility in Saguenay-Lac-

Saint-Jean, Quebec. The remelt furnace will have an initial capacity of 22,000 metric tons and produce secondary ingot for

downstream aluminum producers serving the packaging and automotive industries. The furnace will be fed by scrap generated

from rolling customers and Rio’s other operations in Quebec and is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2021

▪ Matalco announced it has begun production at its ~$80 million billet facility in Wisconsin Rapids, WI. The facility has an annual

capacity of ~109,000 metric tons, producing 6-xxx and 7-xxx series extrusion billet in diameters ranging from 7” – 16” and is

expected to cast rolling ingot in the future

Steel▪ AM/NS Calvert, a 50/50 joint venture between ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel Corp., has announced plans to invest ~$775

million to build a new EAF at its facility in Calvert, AL. The new furnace will produce HRC, CRC and coated sheet, at an annual

capacity of ~1.5 million metric tons. The EAF is expected to be completed by the 1H of 2023

▪ Nucor has started production at its $240 million rebar micro-mill in Frostproof, FL. The micro-mill will produce rebar from nearly

100% recycled content at an annual production capacity of up to ~318,000 metric tons to supply Florida’s construction market.

Production will continue to ramp through the 1Q of 2021 and is expected to reach full capacity in the 2Q of 2021

Copper, Lead and Zinc▪ LME copper pricing posted a 25% gain in 2020, hitting levels not seen since 2013 and remains defined by bullish sentiment.

Copper’s rally was driven by a significant pick up in demand through the 2H of 2020, particularly in China where refined copper

imports hitting an all-time high of 5.6 million metric tons. The ICSG estimates the global refined copper market was in a deficit of

~387,000 metric tons for the first 9 months of 2020 and the decline in inventories during the 4Q of 2020 suggests the market

remains at deficit heading into 2021

Specialty & Alloys▪ Domestic stainless sheet prices have increased ~10% MoM on significantly increased demand, higher surcharges and extended

mill lead times. According market participants demand has increased ~30% over the last month, and with mill lead times of 90-

120 days many distributors are implementing allocation policies which have incited some ‘panic buying.’ Pricing has also been

impacted by increased surcharges driven by higher nickel, copper, iron, chrome, manganese and molybdenum prices

Mining, Scrap and Materials▪ Investment in North American lithium carbonate production capacity remains strong. Albemarle announced it will invest $30 –

$50 million to double the lithium carbonate output at its brine-sourced production facility in Silver Peak, NV, while Lithium

Americas is expected to be granted regulatory approval for a lithium mine in Thacker Pass, NV. These investments in domestic

come as Chinese lithium pricing reaches a 14-month high on tight global supply. Although domestic pricing is down ~66% from

2017 highs, global demand is expected to outpace supply by ~228,000 metric tons by 2025

▪ Copper and brass scrap pricing is up significantly on increased demand. Copper scrap pricing has risen 34.9% YoY (see pg. 7)

and brass scrap pricing hit a record high in the first week of 2021. Pricing is being driven by producers restocking for 2021 and

strong export demand from Asian markets. Spreads are expected to widen in the 1Q of 2021 on continued demand

7.4%

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020

GD

P (

% c

ha

ng

e Q

oQ

)

2

Economic commentary

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (through December 2020)

The U.S. manufacturing PMI

increased to 60.7 in

December, from 57.5 in

November

The PMI was above 50.0 for

the 7th time since its April

low, driven by the on-going

recovery in the

manufacturing sector and

overall economy; An index

value over 50.0 indicates

expansion in the

manufacturing sector

Quarterly GDP – Annualized and Seasonally Adjusted (through 3Q of 2020)

According to the U.S. Bureau

of Economic Analysis,

annualized GDP increased

7.4% in the 3Q of 2020,

following a decrease of 9.0%

in the 2Q of 2020

Nominal GDP remains below

pre-pandemic levels, but is

expected to improve as the

economy recovers from the

Covid-19 induced recession

60.7

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20

ISM

Pu

rch

as

ing

Ma

na

ge

rs I

nd

ex

(P

MI)

667.0

792.5

$30

$130

$230

$330

$430

$530

$630

$730

$830

$930

Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

Billio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Residential Non-residential

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Oil v

s. G

as

(R

ig C

ou

nt)

Oil Gas

3

Economic commentary (continued…)

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management1 Horizontal drilling data includes directional drilling wells

Construction Put In Place – Annualized and Seasonally Adjusted (through November 2020)

According to the U.S.

Census Bureau, November

2020 construction spending

totaled $1,459.5 billion, up

3.8% YoY

Gains are attributable to an

16.2% increase and only a

(4.7%) decrease in

Residential Construction and

Non-Residential

Construction, respectively

Oil & Gas Drilling Activity – U.S. 1 (December 31, 2020)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

% o

f T

ota

l R

ig C

ou

nt

% Horizontal % Vertical

$0.00

$2.50

$5.00

$7.50

$10.00

$12.50

$15.00

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

U.S

. $

/ l

b

Nickel

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00


U.S

.$ / l

b

Aluminum Copper Zinc

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200


U.S

. $

/ t

on

Rebar Merchant Bar

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


U.S

. $

/ t

on

HRC CRC HDG Plate

4

Base Metals Prices (through January 8, 2021)

Steel Prices (through January 8, 2021)

Source: American Metal Market

Note: Midwest quotes used for steel pricing

Industry fundamentals

Steel HRC CRC HDG Plate Rebar Merchant Bar

End of Month Price ($ / Ton) $1,042 $1,170 $1,275 $940 $755 $855

MoM % Change 6.6% 12.5% 11.4% 28.8% 9.4% 14.8%

YoY % Change 75.2% 51.0% 44.9% 46.9% 19.8% 24.8%

Base Metals Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc

End of Month Price ($ / lb) $0.92 $3.67 $8.12 $1.28

MoM % Change 0.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3%

YoY % Change 18.1% 44.1% 42.7% 26.4%

5

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute, Baker Hughes Investor Relations/Rig Data

Industry fundamentals (continued…)

U.S. Capacity Utilization (through December 31, 2020)

Idled N.A. Mill Operations (as of January 8, 2021)

ArcelorMittal ▪ Dofasco, Blast Furnace No. 3

Cleveland-Cliffs▪ Hot strip mill in Dearborn, MI

▪ Cleveland, Blast Furnace No. 6▪ Stainless mill in Mansfield, OH

Evraz ▪ Seamless pipe mill in Pueblo, CO

JSW Steel ▪ EAF and mill in Mingo Junction, OH ▪ Plate mill in Baytown, TX

Liberty Steel ▪ Wire rod mill in Georgetown, SC ▪ EAF and mill in LaPlace, LA

Tenaris▪ Billet mill in Koppel, PA

▪ Tubular operations in Ambridge, PA▪ Tubular operations in Baytown, TX

U.S. Steel▪ Granite City, Blast Furnace A

▪ Tubular operations in Lone Star, TX▪ Tubular operations in Lorain, OH

U.S. steel production

increased throughout

December with capacity

utilization ending the year at

72.3%, up from 70.6% in

November

Mills produced 78.8 million

tons in 2020 at an average

capacity utilization rate of

67.0%

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

60.0%

75.0%

90.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

Cap

acity

Utiliz

atio

n (%

)

To

ns

(000s

)

Total Production Capacity Utilization

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20

Mo

nth

ly P

rod

uc

tio

n (

'00

0s

To

ns

)

U.S. China Rest of World

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20

Av

g. D

aily

Sh

ipm

en

ts ('0

00

s T

on

s)

En

din

g In

ve

nto

ry (

'00

0s

To

ns

)

Ending Inventory Avg. Daily Shipments

6

Source: World Steel Association, Metals Service Center Institute

MSCI Ending Inventories & Average Daily Shipments (through November 30, 2020)

Monthly Steel Production (LTM through November 30, 2020)


('000s M T) U.S. China Rest of World World Total

LTM Production 73,365 1,047,442 701,422 1,822,229

MoM % Change (1.7%) (4.9%) (0.6%) (3.1%)

YoY % Change (13.7%) 9.2% 7.1% 7.2%

% of World Total 4.0% 57.5% 38.5% 100.0%

$0.00

$3.00

$6.00

$9.00

$12.00


U.S

. $

/ l

b

Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500


U.S

. $

/ t

on

Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto

159

205

(3)

($75)

$0

$75

$150

$225

$300

Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap

7

Ferrous & Non-Ferrous Scrap Prices (through January 8, 2021)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Metal Market1 Scrap trade data through 11/30/2020; $ in millions

Ferrous Monthly Scrap Net Exports 1 Non-Ferrous Monthly Scrap Net Exports 1

316

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20


Ferrous ($ / ton) Non-ferrous ($ / lb)

Scrap Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap

End of Month Price $425 $460 $0.65 $3.41 $4.40

MoM % Change 26.9% 24.3% 3.2% 3.5% 9.3%

YoY % Change 66.7% 54.9% 23.8% 34.9% 26.6%

Scrap Spread $617 $582 $0.27 $0.27 $3.72

December 21, 2020

Aerospace: 4Q20 "Plane Chain" Indicates Order

Increase Ahead, Remain Cautious on Wide Body

December 18, 2020

WOR: Raising Estimates on Steel Pricing

Volatility; Sector Weight

January 11, 2021

CMC - ALERT: 1Q21 (Nov.) Light of Our View in

North America, Beats Street

8

1 KeyBanc Capital Markets’ Industrial Research platform has consistently achieved a Top 3 ranking in Greenwich Associates annual survey of small / mid-cap fund

managers. In its June 2019 Analyst Awards, ThomsonReuters recognized Phil Gibbs as the #1 earnings estimator in the Metals & Mining sector

KeyBanc Capital Markets’ top-ranked 1 equity research team covers numerous companies across the Metals and Mining

sector. Selected recent research notes are provided below. Click on the respective ‘tear out’ to read the entire note.

Select KeyBanc Capital Markets’ equity research

Steel Weekend

Warrior

Aerospace

January 3, 2021

Steel Weekend Warrior - ALERT: 2021 U.S.

Ferrous Scrap Market to Start with a Bang

January 7, 2021

SCHN - ALERT: 1Q21 (November) EPS Nicely

Beats on Gross Margins

Carbon Steel

December 23, 2020

Carbon Steel - ALERT: China Further Loosens

Ferrous Scrap Import Restrictions

December 17, 2020

CLF - ALERT: Sell-Side Call Timely as China

Liberalizes Scrap Import Policy

December 17, 2020

X - ALERT: 4Q Guidance Looks Light; Outlook for

Significant Improvement as Expected

https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=ee8dd4c7-5231-4b78-9515-e64b18603346&mime=pdf&co=KBCM&[email protected]&source=libraryView

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https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=e8deaf24-6bdc-41eb-964a-9c2afb93d9bb&mime=pdf&co=KBCM&[email protected]&source=libraryView

https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=46c90418-2d50-48f5-90d8-294d394dedbd&mime=pdf&co=KBCM&[email protected]&source=libraryView

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https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=0128c157-670c-4d01-a051-2487c2385bcf&mime=pdf&co=KBCM&[email protected]&source=libraryView

33.8%

17.4%

(16.0%)

15.8%

(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500

103

156

301

474

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Sp

rea

d t

o M

atu

rity

A Index BBB Index BB Index B Index

9

Capital markets update

Source: Capital IQ

Investment Grade and High Yield Bond Spreads (through January 8, 2021)

All bond spreads

tightened slightly into

January; however,

changes were small

Index Performance (through January 8, 2021)

KeyBanc’s Global

Producers and Service

Centers indices have

outperformed the S&P

500 over the LTM, up

33.8% and 17.4% YoY,

respectively

Specialty Metals are

down by (16.0%)

10

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve1 SOFR is a secured overnight rate, currently without a term structure

FED Speak & Economic News

• Price movement in U.S. Treasuries was driven almost entirely by the outcomes of the two U.S. Senate races in Georgia held on January 12,

since control of the Senate will have an impact on fiscal stimulus. After both seats had been called for Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon

Ossoff, the yield curve immediately steepened as it is widely expected that further stimulus is likely and will require additional issuance by the

Treasury. The additional relief could come quickly given that Democrats now have control of the presidency and both houses of Congress

• Additional fiscal aid from the federal government continues to be at the forefront for market participants, arguably now more than in the

previous months, considering the jobs report result for December. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls declined

by ~140,000 in the month of December. This deterioration was not expected, reflected via the consensus expectation of ~50,000 job additions

in the month. The result marks the end of a seven-month run in which jobs were added, following the ~20 million plummet in jobs seen in

March and April at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although December’s job losses were mainly temporary positions within the service

sector, the December jobs report could serve as an additional point of reference for Congress to pass additional fiscal stimulus in short order

• Investors looked beyond the labor market deterioration in December and risk assets traded in the green in the first week of 2021, with all four

major equity indices advancing further. U.S. Treasuries sold off and yields increased along the curve, with most of the movement taking place

at the long end. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eclipsed 1% mid-week and finished the week at 1.12%, reflecting the highest level since

March 14, 2020. The spread between the 2- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields widened out to 98 bps at the end of the first week of 2021,

reflecting the widest margin dating back to 2017. This measure serves as a barometer for the growing expectation of an economic recovery in

2021 and beyond. USD swap rates followed an almost identical trend to U.S. Treasuries, increasing 1 – 20 bps along the curve. Despite the

material increase in long-term interest rates, short-term, floating rates remain at or near all-time lows. 1-month LIBOR finished last week at

0.13%, the all-time low for this designated maturity

Capital markets update (continued…)

Current Rate Snapshot (as of January 11, 2021) USD Swap Curve Steepening, Driven Long-term Rates

Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks,

largely driven by ongoing accommodative fiscal and monetary

policies. USD pay-fixed swap rates have followed a like trend,

with longer-dated maturities increasing from rates seen in

previous months. The 10-year USD swap rate has increased 47

and 20 bps from June and December 2020, respectively

Friday Prior Week Change

1-Month LIBOR 0.13% 0.14% (0.01% )

3-Month LIBOR 0.22% 0.24% (0.02% )

SOFR 1 0.10% 0.07% 0.03%

Fed Funds 0.25% 0.25% 0.00%

Fed Discount 2.75% 2.75% 0.00%

Prime 3.25% 3.25% 0.00%

US Treasury Yields

2-year Treasury 0.14% 0.12% 0.02%

5-year Treasury 0.48% 0.36% 0.12%

10-year Treasury 1.12% 0.92% 0.20%

Swaps vs. 3M LIBOR

2-year 0.21% 0.20% 0.01%

5-year 0.56% 0.43% 0.13%

10-year 1.13% 0.93% 0.20%

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

1M 6M 2Y 4Y 6Y 8Y 10Y 12Y 20Y 30Y

Curve: 1/8/2021 Curve: 6/1/2020 Curve: 12/31/2020

LIBOR Settings Swap Rates

11

Source: American Metal Market, The Daily Deal, MergerMarket

Select recent transaction activity

ClosedAcquirer

(Parent)

Target

(Seller)Highlights

1/4/2021 AZZ Inc. Acme Galvanizing

▪ AZZ has acquired Acme Galvanizing

▪ This transaction increases AZZ’s North American network of hot-dip galvanizing facilities to

40 and represents AZZ’s fourth transaction since 2019

1/4/2021 Russel Metals Sanborn Tube Sales▪ Russel Metals has acquired Sanborn Tube Sales

▪ This acquisition strengthens Russel’s value-added processing capabilities in tubing

1/1/2021 AllMetal Recycling Salina Iron and Metal

▪ AllMetal has acquired Salina Iron and Metal

▪ This transaction strengthens AllMetal’s presence in KS, complementing the Company’s 5

other facilities in the state

12/31/2020 Metalico Girard Assets of

Liberty Iron & Metal

▪ Metalico has acquired the Girard, OH auto shredding assets of Liberty Iron & Metal for

$13.2 million

▪ This transaction is part of Liberty’s plan to divest non-core assets and focus on its

operations in the Southwest U.S.

12/31/2020Norfolk Iron & Metal

(‘NIM’) Cd’A Metals

▪ NIM has acquired Cd’a Metals

▪ This acquisition adds three locations to NIM’s operations, expanding NIM’s reach into new

geographies in the Northwest U.S.

12/31/2020 TMS International Stein LLC▪ TMS International has acquired Stein and Stein Steel Mill Services

▪ This transaction expands TMS’ mill services business throughout the U.S.

12/31/2020

Wieland Metal

Services

(Wieland Group)

Wrisco Industries

▪ Wieland Metal Services, a division of Wieland Group, has acquired Wrisco Industries

▪ This acquisition supports Wieland’s growth in the aluminum market and expands

Wieland’s growing portfolio in the United States

12/23/2020

NP Falls Township

Industrial LLC

(NorthPoint

Development)

Keystone Industrial

Port Complex

(U.S. Steel)

▪ NP Falls Township Industrial (NorthPoint Development) has acquired U.S. Steel’s

Keystone Industrial Port Complex in Fairless Hills, PA for ~$160 million. The proceeds will

be used to fund U.S. Steel’s acquisition of Big River Steel

▪ This transaction is part of U.S. Steel’s strategy to extract value from its real estate portfolio

12/23/2020 KPS Capital PartnersHussey Copper

(Zohar III Ltd.)

▪ KPS Capital Partners has acquired Hussey Copper out of Zohar III’s Chapter 11 process

▪ This transaction establishes a new red metals production and fabrication platform for KPS

12/15/2020 Majestic Steel P&S Metals and Supply

▪ Majestic Steel has acquired P&S Metals and Supply

▪ This acquisition increases Majestic’s presence in the Western U.S., while enhancing the

Company’s downstream capabilities and product lines

12/15/2020Contractors Steel

(UPG)Borrmann Metal Center

▪ Contractors Steel, a division of UPG, has acquired Borrmann Metal Center

▪ This acquisition expands Contractor’s presence in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico,

while enhancing Contractor’s product offerings in new end-markets (e.g., aerospace)

12/14/2020 Olympic SteelAction Stainless &

Alloys

▪ Olympic Steel has acquired Action Stainless & Alloys

▪ This acquisition diversifies Olympic’s product offerings in its specialty metals segment and

will expand its specialty metals segment into new geographies

12

Source: American Metal Market, The Daily Deal, MergerMarket

Recent capital markets’ activity

Closed Company Gross Offering Size Highlights

12/15/2020 TimkenSteel$46 million Convertible

Senior Notes

▪ $46 million, 6.000% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025

▪ This transaction exchanged notes previously due 2021. The Company did not

receive any cash proceeds from the transaction

13

Source: CapitalIQ, ThomsonReuters, SEC Filings

Note: Outlying EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples were excluded from average and median calculations

Metals public operating & trading statistics

$ in millions, except per share data Prices

as of Market Enterprise LTM CY 2021 LTM CY 2021

Company Ticker 1/8/2021 Cap Value Sales EBITDA % Margin EPS EBITDA EPS EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio

ArcelorMittal ENXTAM:MT $24.86 $28,676 $37,241 $54,600 $3,751 6.9% ($2.07) $6,790 $2.03 9.9x NM 5.5x 12.3x

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 7.20 9,940 15,323 5,230 1,276 24.4% 0.59 1,581 0.36 12.0x 12.2x 9.7x 20.0x

Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR3 4.51 7,718 10,053 7,382 1,030 13.9% 0.16 1,453 NA 9.8x 28.1x 6.9x NA

Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. AMEX:SIM 12.29 1,899 1,557 1,656 261 15.8% 0.29 241 NA 6.0x NM 6.5x NA

PAO Severstal LSE:SVST 18.45 15,221 17,014 7,080 2,291 32.4% 1.08 2,683 1.87 7.4x 17.0x 6.3x 9.9x

SSAB AB (publ) OM:SSAB A 3.72 3,827 5,171 7,961 221 2.8% (0.24) 790 0.22 NM NM 6.5x 16.8x

Tata Steel Limited 500470 9.72 11,143 24,247 18,079 2,314 12.8% (0.34) 3,741 1.07 10.5x NM 6.5x 9.1x

thyssenkrupp AG XTRA:TKA 10.91 6,794 1,062 35,389 1,510 4.3% (4.73) 1,449 (0.96) NM NM NM NM

Average $10,652 $13,959 $17,172 $1,582 14.1% $2,341 9.3x 19.1x 6.8x 13.6x

Median $8,829 $12,688 $7,671 $1,393 13.4% $1,517 9.8x 17.0x 6.5x 12.3x

Commercial Metals Company CMC $22.56 $2,748 $3,290 $5,476 $646 11.8% $2.36 $455 $1.82 5.1x 9.6x 7.2x 12.4x

Nucor Corporation NUE 56.02 17,002 19,664 20,011 2,102 10.5% 2.38 2,373 3.41 9.4x 23.5x 8.3x 16.4x

Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD 39.49 8,309 9,758 9,371 1,092 11.6% 2.30 1,314 3.49 8.9x 17.2x 7.4x 11.3x

United States Steel Corporation X 22.29 4,913 8,162 10,003 (78) (0.8%) (6.51) 1,204 (0.77) NM NM 6.8x NM

Average $8,243 $10,218 $11,215 $940 8.3% $1,337 7.8x 16.8x 7.4x 13.4x

Median $6,611 $8,960 $9,687 $869 11.1% $1,337 7.8x 17.2x 7.3x 12.4x

Olympic Steel Inc. ZEUS $15.02 $176 $342 $1,222 $20 1.6% ($0.57) $46 $0.80 NM NM 7.5x 18.8x

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 131.29 8,371 9,431 9,126 942 10.3% 7.49 1,032 8.86 10.0x 17.5x 9.1x 14.8x

Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 18.58 1,171 1,511 2,246 102 4.6% 0.32 139 1.21 14.8x NM 10.9x 15.4x

Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 15.72 599 1,297 3,575 151 4.2% (1.03) 203 1.37 8.6x NM 6.4x 11.5x

Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 55.84 2,946 3,094 2,810 314 11.2% 0.23 361 3.79 9.8x NM 8.6x 14.7x

Average $2,653 $3,135 $3,796 $306 6.4% $356 10.8x 17.5x 8.5x 15.0x

Median $1,171 $1,511 $2,810 $151 4.6% $203 9.9x 17.5x 8.6x 14.8x

ALBA SE DB:ABA $82.66 $818 $730 $348 ($2) -0.5% ($1.35) NA NA NM NM NA NA

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 37.18 1,008 1,098 1,712 108 6.3% 0.27 151 NA 10.2x NM 7.3x NA

Sims Limited ASX:SGM 11.02 2,257 2,171 3,820 42 1.1% (0.66) 227 0.34 NM NM 9.5x NM

Average $1,361 $1,333 $1,960 $49 2.3% $189 10.2x NM 8.4x NM

Median $1,008 $1,098 $1,712 $42 1.1% $189 10.2x NM 8.4x NM

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI $18.71 $2,373 $3,458 $3,342 $290 8.7% ($0.88) $236 ($0.42) 11.9x NM 14.7x NM

Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS 33.25 1,606 2,081 1,949 183 9.4% 0.68 154 NA 11.4x NM 13.5x NA

Haynes International, Inc. HAYN 24.75 314 275 381 13 3.5% (0.52) 7 NA NM NM NM NA

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 107.08 1,755 1,843 1,269 174 13.7% 3.61 237 6.03 10.6x 29.6x 7.8x 17.8x

Materion Corporation MTRN 67.78 1,424 1,456 1,184 96 8.1% 5.25 121 2.91 15.1x 12.9x 12.0x 23.3x

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. USAP 8.58 76 137 204 8 3.8% (1.24) 6 (0.95) NM NM NM NM

Average $1,258 $1,542 $1,388 $128 7.9% $127 12.2x 21.3x 12.0x 20.6x

Median $1,515 $1,649 $1,227 $135 8.4% $138 11.6x 21.3x 12.8x 20.6x

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Source: CapitalIQ, ThomsonReuters, SEC Filings

Metals public credit statistics

$ in millions

Total Net Total Debt / Net Debt / Total Debt / Net Debt / EBITDA /

Company Ticker Debt Debt EBITDA EBITDA Cap (book) Cap (book) Interest

ArcelorMittal ENXTAM:MT $13,384 $6,767 3.6x 1.8x 25.8% 13.0% 2.5x

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 6,719 5,134 NM 4.0x 87.9% 67.1% 3.8x

Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR3 3,631 2,293 3.5x 2.2x 38.5% 24.3% 3.8x

Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. AMEX:SIM 0 (343) NM NM 0.0% NM NM

PAO Severstal LSE:SVST 2,563 1,779 1.1x 0.8x 50.3% 34.9% 15.9x

SSAB AB (publ) OM:SSAB A 1,990 1,331 NM NM 22.0% 14.7% 1.0x

Tata Steel Limited 500470 15,188 12,765 NM NM 63.1% 53.0% 2.2x

thyssenkrupp AG XTRA:TKA 7,962 (6,178) NM NM 39.9% NM 0.8x

Average $6,430 $2,943 2.7x 2.2x 40.9% 34.5% 4.3x

Median $5,175 $2,036 3.5x 2.0x 39.2% 29.6% 2.5x

Commercial Metals Company CMC $1,084 $542 1.8x 0.9x 36.5% 18.2% 9.8x

Nucor Corporation NUE 5,526 2,247 2.6x 1.1x 34.9% 14.2% 14.4x

Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD 2,719 1,451 2.5x 1.3x 39.3% 21.0% 10.2x

United States Steel Corporation X 4,890 3,194 NM NM 58.6% 38.3% NM

Average $3,555 $1,859 2.3x 1.1x 42.3% 22.9% 11.5x

Median $3,804 $1,849 2.5x 1.1x 37.9% 19.6% 10.2x

Olympic Steel, Inc. ZEUS $171 $166 NM NM 36.4% 35.3% 2.3x

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 1,644 1,053 1.7x 1.1x 24.6% 15.7% 14.8x

Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 435 340 4.3x 3.3x 37.6% 29.4% 3.5x

Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 961 839 6.4x 5.6x 87.9% 86.4% 1.8x

Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 708 (6) 2.5x NM 46.3% NM 9.5x

Average $784 $478 3.7x 3.3x 46.6% 41.7% 6.4x

Median $708 $340 3.4x 3.3x 37.6% 32.4% 3.5x

ALBA SE DB:ABA $23 ($88) NM NM 13.4% NM NM

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 104 87 1.3x 1.1x 13.4% 11.1% 9.1x

Sims Limited ASX:SGM 91 (86) 2.1x NM 5.6% NM 3.5x

Average $73 ($29) 1.7x 1.1x 10.8% 11.1% 6.3x

Median $91 ($86) 1.7x 1.1x 13.4% 11.1% 6.3x

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI $1,541 $969 NM 3.6x 47.1% 29.6% 2.9x

Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS 694 475 3.8x 2.6x 33.0% 22.6% 6.3x

Haynes International, Inc. HAYN 9 (39) 0.4x NM 2.7% NM 15.2x

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 838 88 4.8x 0.5x 53.8% 5.6% 4.8x

Materion Corporation MTRN 149 31 0.9x 0.2x 19.6% 4.1% NM

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. USAP 62 62 NM NM 21.0% 20.9% 2.5x

Average $549 $264 2.5x 1.7x 29.5% 16.6% 6.3x

Median $421 $75 2.4x 1.5x 27.0% 20.9% 4.8x

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Client Business Description

Deal Value

($ mm) Type Closed

American Securities -

NN Life Sciences

Manufactures high-precision metal and plastic

components $750 Buy-Side Advisor Aug-20

NN Life SciencesManufactures high-precision metal and plastic

components $485 Senior Secured Credit Facility Aug-20

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Processor and distributor of metals $900 Senior Notes Jul-20

Ryerson Inc. Processor and distributor of metals $500 Senior Secured Notes Jul-20

Kymera International Producer of specialty, non-ferrous metal powders $185Senior Secured Credit

FacilitiesMar-20

NN Inc.Manufacturer of metal bearing components, plastic and

rubber components, and precision metal components$345

Senior Secured Credit

FacilitiesDec-19

Zochem Manufacturer of zinc oxide $70Senior Secured Revolving

Credit FacilityDec-19

Navajo Transitional Energy Company Miner of coal reserves on the Navajo Nation $25 Senior Revolving Credit Facility Oct-19

Venture Metals LLC Processor of non-ferrous scrap metal $125+Senior Secured Revolving

Credit FacilitesSep-19

Versatile Processing Group Processor of non-ferrous scrap metal ND Sell Side Advisor Jul-19

Johnstown Wire Technologies Producer of cold-drawn steel wire products ND Sell Side Advisor Jun-19

ATI Manufacturer of complex forgings for blue-chip OEMs ND Sell Side Advisor Jun-19

Ellwood GroupGlobal manufacturer of high-quality, engineered, heavy

metal components$150

Senior Unsecured Revolving

Credit FacilitiesMay-19

Kymera International Producer of specialty, non-ferrous metal powders $275 Senior Secured Credit Facilites Oct-18

Palladium Equity Partners -

Kymera InternationalProducer of specialty, non-ferrous metal powders $275 Buy Side Advisor Oct-18

NN Inc.Manufacturer of metal bearing components, plastic and

rubber components, and precision metal components$230 Follow-On Sep-18

Aleris International Manufacturer of aluminum rolled products $400Senior Secured Junior Priority

NotesJun-18

Conuma Coal Resources Limited Miner of metallurgical coal in British Columbia $200 Senior Secured Notes Apr-18

Main Steel LLCWhite metals toll processor, specializing in stainless

steel coil polishing ND Sell Side Advisor Nov-17

15

Select transaction experience

For additional information about KeyBanc Capital Markets, contact:

Metals & Mining Team

Eric Klenz

216.689.3974

[email protected]

Arindam Basu

216.689.4262

[email protected]

Barry Stormer

216.689.7921

[email protected]

Alex Leszcz

216.689.5011

[email protected]

Donald Bleifuss

216.689.8404

[email protected]

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.,

Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed

securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does

not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general

information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

industrial investment banking round-up · 2021. 4. 16. · industrial investment banking round-up...

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