indraprastha gas ltd. buy -...

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Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - 1 - Monday, 22 nd February, 2015 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `691 CMP `528 FY17E P/E10.7x Index Details We believe that IGL represents a compelling story to play the City Gas Distribution (CGD) business. The recent SC directive led traction around reducing pollution in the NCR region should provide a fillip to CNG gas volumes. Also with only 16% out of 40+ lakh households receiving piped gas, there exists significant scope for continuous growth of PNG volumes. Further, investments in other CGD geographies and bids for new geographies should improve visibility around sustainable growth over the medium to long term. At the CMP of Rs 528, IGL is available at 10.6X FY18 earnings. We initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X FY18 EPS of Rs 49.4) representing a potential upside of 31% over next 18 months. Our optimism stems from the following: Over the period FY12-FY15, CNG volumes have been growing at a lacklustre 4% CAGR. But with the SC verdict, a sweeping change in the fuel consumption pattern is expected with a substantial ramp up in CNG sales volumes. We expect CNG sales to grow at a 13% CAGR to Rs 4,339.8 crore in FY18 from Rs 3,002.42 crore reported in FY15 given that No new diesel passenger vehicles will not be registered in Delhi, Registration of diesel vehicles more than 10 years old will not be renewed, Entry tax (on diesel CVs) has been raised, There could be a complete ban on entry of diesel vehicles once the necessary infrastructure has been created. Delhi and Pune pollution levels are at alarming level and thus may push NGT to adopt CNG aggressively. Conversion of CV into CNG growing at a brisk pace Renewed thrust on improved public transport to lead to higher demand for CNG buses CNG stations to get a fillip with the SC decision Sensex 23,789 Nifty 7,234 Industry Oil and Gas Scrip Details MktCap (` cr) 7,393 BVPS (`) 149.9 O/s Shares (Cr) 14 AvVol 0.4 52 Week H/L 607/376 Div Yield (%) 1.1 FVPS (`) 10.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 45.0 DIIs 21.6 FIIs 20.5 Public 12.9 Total 100.0 IGL vs. Sensex 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Sensex IGL of Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Mar Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (`) EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2015 3,681.0 797.7 437.7 31.3 21.5 20.9 30.5 16.9 9.1 2016E 4,026.2 817.3 447.9 35.2 12.5 19.8 26.6 15.0 8.9 2017E 4,509.4 967.3 577.5 41.6 18.4 19.7 26.9 12.7 7.5 2018E 5,254.3 1,132.3 680.8 49.4 18.7 19.6 25.9 10.7 6.4

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Page 1: Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/IGL_Ventura_PYT.pdf · initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY

- 1 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price `691 CMP `528 FY17E P/E10.7x

Index Details We believe that IGL represents a compelling story to play the City Gas

Distribution (CGD) business. The recent SC directive led traction around

reducing pollution in the NCR region should provide a fillip to CNG gas

volumes. Also with only 16% out of 40+ lakh households receiving piped

gas, there exists significant scope for continuous growth of PNG

volumes. Further, investments in other CGD geographies and bids for

new geographies should improve visibility around sustainable growth

over the medium to long term.

At the CMP of Rs 528, IGL is available at 10.6X FY18 earnings. We

initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

FY18 EPS of Rs 49.4) representing a potential upside of 31% over next

18 months.

Our optimism stems from the following:

Over the period FY12-FY15, CNG volumes have been growing at a

lacklustre 4% CAGR. But with the SC verdict, a sweeping change in

the fuel consumption pattern is expected with a substantial ramp up

in CNG sales volumes. We expect CNG sales to grow at a 13% CAGR

to Rs 4,339.8 crore in FY18 from Rs 3,002.42 crore reported in FY15

given that

No new diesel passenger vehicles will not be registered in Delhi,

Registration of diesel vehicles more than 10 years old will not be

renewed,

Entry tax (on diesel CVs) has been raised,

There could be a complete ban on entry of diesel vehicles once the

necessary infrastructure has been created.

Delhi and Pune pollution levels are at alarming level and thus may

push NGT to adopt CNG aggressively.

Conversion of CV into CNG growing at a brisk pace

Renewed thrust on improved public transport to lead to higher

demand for CNG buses

CNG stations to get a fillip with the SC decision

Sensex 23,789

Nifty 7,234

Industry Oil and Gas

Scrip Details

MktCap (` cr) 7,393

BVPS (`) 149.9

O/s Shares (Cr) 14

AvVol 0.4

52 Week H/L 607/376

Div Yield (%) 1.1

FVPS (`) 10.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 45.0

DIIs 21.6

FIIs 20.5

Public 12.9

Total 100.0

IGL vs. Sensex

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Feb

15

Mar 1

5

Ap

r 1

5

May 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb

16

Sensex IGL

of Key Financials (` in Cr)

Y/E Mar Net

Sales EBITDA PAT

EPS

(`)

EPS

Growth (%)

RONW

(%)

ROCE

(%)

P/E

(x)

EV/EBITDA

(x)

2015 3,681.0 797.7 437.7 31.3 21.5 20.9 30.5 16.9 9.1 2016E 4,026.2 817.3 447.9 35.2 12.5 19.8 26.6 15.0 8.9 2017E 4,509.4 967.3 577.5 41.6 18.4 19.7 26.9 12.7 7.5

2018E 5,254.3 1,132.3 680.8 49.4 18.7 19.6 25.9 10.7 6.4

Page 2: Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/IGL_Ventura_PYT.pdf · initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

- 2 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

We expect PNG demand to grow at a CAGR of 7.9% to 41.5 crore SCM

by FY18. Consequently, revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of

11.5% to Rs 1,453 crore by FY18. The triggers for volume growth are as

under

Significant latent demand waiting to be tapped

Falling prices should boost CNG usage by industrial and

commercial consumers

NCR household growth signifies strong demand potential

Exploration in newer cities to drive incremental revenue growth

Revenues from CUPGL, Kanpur are expected to grow at a CAGR of

7% to Rs 228 crore by FY18 from Rs 186.8 crore in FY15 and PAT is

expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% to Rs 30.5 crore from Rs 26.2

crore in FY15 over the same period

Revenues from MNGL are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% to Rs

742 crore by FY18 from Rs 455.8 crore in FY15 and PAT is expected

to grow at a CAGR of 21% to Rs 90 crore crore from Rs 50.6 crore in

FY15 over the same period

Submitted bids to supply CNG into three new locations viz; Revadi,

Yamunanagar and North Goa. These steps towards geographical

diversification would benefit the company in the long run as its core

NCR region is increasingly becoming saturated after 16 years of

operation.

Page 3: Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/IGL_Ventura_PYT.pdf · initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

- 3 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

Incorporated in 1998, IGL took over the Delhi City Gas Distribution Project in 1999

from GAIL (India) Limited. IGL continues to augment its infrastructure so as to

meet the increasing demand of CNG arising out of growing number of CNG

vehicles in Delhi. The growth drivers for increase in demand of CNG are - car

manufacturers coming up with CNG variants and Delhi Government’s directive

making it mandatory for all LCVs operating in Delhi to run on CNG.

On the PNG front, IGL has planned to expand its business activities in Delhi and its

neighboring towns like Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad. IGL is also working

towards expanding its PNG network to cover all charge areas of Delhi. Industrial

and commercial segments would be the focus areas for the organization in the

future.

Key Investment Highlights

CNG volumes get fillip from SC dictate

Over the period FY12-FY15, CNG volumes have been growing at a lacklustre 4%

CAGR. But with the SC verdict, a sweeping change in the fuel consumption pattern

is expected with a substantial ramp up in CNG sales volumes. We expect CNG

volumes to grow at 8% CAGR to 136.3 crore kgs in FY18 from 107.3 crore kgs in

FY15.

Our bullishness stems from the following.

CNG Volumes to grow at CAGR of 8%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Kgs (in cr)

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 4 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Laws discouraging usage of diesel vehicles to give impetus to CNG vehicle sales

A string of developments to lower usage of diesel as a fuel have been introduced

1. The National Gas Tribunal (NGT) has ruled that new diesel passenger

vehicles will not be registered in Delhi,

2. Registration of diesel vehicles more than 10 years old will not be renewed,

3. To discourage entry of diesel commercial vehicles in the NCR region the

entry tax (on diesel CVs) has been raised,

4. At the same time the local government has also indicated that there could be

a complete ban on entry of diesel vehicles once the necessary infrastructure

has been created. This would boost demand for smaller CNG compliant

SCVs which would serve as feeder vehicles for local transportation

5. Delhi and Pune pollution levels are at alarming level and thus may push NGT

to adopt CNG aggressively.

Sharp growth in vehicle population has raised pollution to alarming levels

Sl. Years Annual Growth No. of Vehicles Per

No Number Increase (Per cent) 1000 Population

1 1999-00 31,63,565 1,42,582 4.72 253

2 2000-01 33,75,153 2,11,588 6.69 244

3 2001-02 36,17,853 2,42,700 7.19 256

4 2002-03 38,86,072 2,68,219 7.41 270

5 2003-04 41,60,760 2,74,688 7.07 284

6 2004-05 44,67,154 3,06,394 7.36 299

7 2005-06 48,30,136 3,62,982 8.13 317

8 2006-07 52,32,426 4,02,290 8.33 337

9 2007-08 56,27,384 3,94,958 7.55 356

10 2008-09 60,26,561 3,99,177 7.09 374

11 2009-10 64,66,713 4,40,152 7.3 393

12 2010-11 69,47,536 4,80,823 7.44 415

13 2011-12 74,52,985 5,05,449 7.27 436

14 2012-13 77,85,608 3,32,783 4.46 446

15 2013-14 82,58,284 4,72,676 6.07 465

16 2014-15 88,27,431 5,69,147 6.89 487

Vehicles

Source: Delhi Economic Survey 2014-15, Ventura Research

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- 5 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

These developments should speed up acceptance of CNG as fuel resulting in

healthy volume off take.

Conversion of CV into CNG growing at a brisk pace

Until now conversion of petrol / diesel vehicles to CNG has been growing at a

subdued pace. However since the SC ban, as per IGL sources, there has been a

pick up in demand for CNG kits by ~25% mom (average conversion rate to CNG is

~3500 vehicles per month).

And with the 15 day “odd-even rule” trial period having inconvenienced commuters,

we expect this trend to pick up going forward. If the odd - even rule is implemented

post the examination months (which is strongly gaining favour) there would be a

further spike in the monthly conversions to CNG compliant vehicles.

No of CNG Vehicles in NCR, Delhi

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Jun 15

Buses 18,839 18,826 19,566 19,421 19,639

Auto/LGV 1,59,123 1,93,852 2,06,352 2,28,002 2,33,072

RTV 13,007 14,062 14,039 13,538 13,434

Cars/Taxi 3,59,176 4,60,926 5,14,801 5,56,156 5,69,794

Total 5,50,145 6,87,666 7,54,758 8,17,117 8,35,939

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

NCR pollution woes have reached epic levels

S. No Years SO2 NO2 CO RSPM (PM)

1 2004-05 8.8 55.9 2541 168

2 2005-06 10.2 55.9 2531 177

3 2006-07 4 38 2460 161

4 2007-08 5 43.1 2461 201

5 2008-09 5 47.3 1768 248

6 2009-10 5 46 1937 249

7 2010-11 15 66 2020 281

8 2011-12 18.2 82.4 2020 293

9 2012-13 20.1 77.5 2100 282

10 2013-14 16.9 79 1700 318

Standard 50 40 2000

Ambient Air Quality (µg/m3)

s Source: Delhi Economic Survey 2014-15, Ventura Research

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- 6 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Renewed thrust on improved public transport to lead to higher demand for CNG buses

Nearly 20,000 buses ply on the roads of Delhi. Off this, DTC owns and operates

around 5,000, private operators (cluster buses, where fares are determined by

DTC) operate around 1,800 buses and balance comprises of private buses such as

those deployed by schools and corporates. Although the existing bus fleet

constitutes a paltry 4% of the total vehicles, they consume around ~200-225 m kg

of CNG annually (or 25-27% of IGL’s overall CNG sales). Addition of the stipulated

shortfall alone can ramp up CNG volumes significantly.

There is an estimated shortage of 5500-6000 buses for DTC alone. This represents

an opportunity for traction in CNG volumes given that

Bus distribution in Delhi

CNG98%

Others2%

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

Significant scope for enhanced usage of CNG as a fuel

CNG19%

Others81%

Cars and Jeeps

27,90,566

32%

Motor Cycles & Scooters

56,81,265 64%

Buses and Others3,55,600

4%

No of units Significant AddressableMarket for CNG

Source: Delhi Economic Survey 2014-15, Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 7 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

the Delhi state government has plans to hire around 4000- 6000 private buses

(used for school/ office drop etc) immediately at a fixed charge for public

transport

it has also floated a global tender to add 1,500 new CNG buses by H1FY17;

CNG stations to get a fillip with the SC decision

The SC has decreed that by March 16, 100 existing petrol stations owned by the

PSU marketing companies should allow IGL to establish CNG dispensing units at

these pumps to improve the availability of CNG within the city. This decree comes

as a shot in the arm for IGL, as it was having difficulty sourcing land for its CNG

stations within the city limits.

The cost of these units would be not be more than INR 1.5 to 2 crore and we

believe that this should provide a good fillip to CNG volumes with immediate effect.

We believe that all the the above should help IGL post a healthy volume growth of

8% CAGR to 136.3 crore kgs by FY18. Consequently, CNG revenues are expected

to grow at a CAGR of 13% to Rs 4,339 crore by FY18.

Growth in CNG stations by IGL

Particulars Unit Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Jun 15

No of CNG stations Number 278.0 308.0 324.0 325.0 326.0 326.0

Compression Capacity Lakh kg/day 51.1 59.6 63.8 66.2 68.5 68.5

Average CNG Sale Lakh kg/day 16.7 19.2 20.7 21.2 22.1 22.2

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

CNG revenue to grow at 13% CAGR

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Rs in Cr

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

Hardly any traction in gas filling stations

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- 8 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

PNG is preferred choice of fuel

The convenience associated with PNG has already established it as the preferred

fuel and its demand is growing in domestic, commercial as well as industrial

segments. We expect PNG demand to grow at a CAGR of 7.9% to 41.5 crore SCM

by FY18. Consequently, revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5% to Rs

1,453 crore by FY18 given that

1. Significant latent demand waiting to be tapped

Currently, there are ~40+ lakh households in Delhi of which 6.5 Lakh are PNG

users with average consumption by each household of ~0.5 scm per day. GAIL

being the gas supplier not only assures IGL of receiving firm quantities but also

ensures priority supply in the event of any stoppage / disruption in domestic gas

supply. Firm allocation of domestic gas for the region allows IGL to provide

uninterrupted supply of PNG to domestic households at competitive rates.

PNG Volumes to grow at a CAGR of 5%

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16EFY17EFY18E

SCM (in cr)

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

PNG Revenues to grow at a rapid pace

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Rs in Cr

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

PNG users in Delhi

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Mar 16E

Domestic 3,32,844 3,86,696 4,59,467 5,60,752 5,76,566 6,40,863

Commercial 862 1,382 1,876 2,292 2,371 2,612

Total 3,33,706 3,88,078 4,61,343 5,63,044 5,78,937 6,43,475

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 9 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

2. Falling prices should boost CNG usage by industrial and commercial

consumers

In order to cater to the growing gas demand of industrial & commercial consumers,

IGL is procuring R-LNG, both on term & spot basis. In this regard, besides having

gas supply tie ups with GAIL and BPCL, IGL has signed a framework gas supply

agreement with other major R-LNG suppliers viz Shell Hazira LNG, IOCL and

GSPCL. Besides the new revised gas agreement with RasGas of Quatar on

favorable terms for lower prices should boost India’s gas economy.

3. NCR household growth signifies strong demand potential

Over the past two decades, NCR households have been growing at a rapid rate of

30%. We expect this growth to continue at above 20% over next the decade as

well. This complies significant growth in PNG demand in the near future.

Rapid growth of residential household in NCR augurs well for PNG volumes

Sl. Years Households Growth Residential Houses Growth Difference

No (Lakh) (%) (Lakh) (%)

1 1991 18.62 17.14 1.48

2 2001 25.54 37.2% 23.17 35.2% 2.37

3 2011 33.41 30.8% 31.76 37.1% 1.65

Source: Delhi Economic Survey 2014-15, Ventura Research

PNG Distribution network in Delhi

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 10 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Exploration in newer cities to drive incremental revenue growth

IGL has been expanding its distribution network in newer cities in order to ramp up

its revenue growth.

1. It has acquired 50% stake in Central UP Gas Limited (CUGL) that supplies CNG

and PNG in and around Kanpur and Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh.

2. IGL has also acquired a 50% stake in the Maharashtra Natural Gas Limited

(MNGL) in FY15 for Rs 1.9 billion that distributes CNG and PNG in Pune. It is

expected that demand for CNG and PNG in Pune would escalate as Pune is the

fastest growing city in India today.

3. IGL has submitted bids to supply CNG in three new locations viz; Revadi,

Yamunanagar and North Goa. GAIL (promoter of IGL holding 22.5% stake)

already has a gas pipeline in North Goa.

Financial highlights of MNGL

Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net Sales 182.3 346.2 455.8 547.0 645.4 742.2

EBITDA 58.7 96.0 98.8 120.3 138.8 167.0

EBITDAM 32% 27% 22% 22% 22% 23%

Interest 1.6 4.7 5.4 7.1 9.0 9.6

PBDT 57.1 91.3 92.5 115.4 133.0 161.1

Depreciation 7.2 8.8 14.6 19.1 23.9 26.7

PBT 49.9 82.5 77.9 96.3 109.1 134.3

Tax exp 11.4 28.4 27.3 33.7 37.1 44.3

PAT 38.5 54.1 50.6 62.6 72.0 90.0

PATM 21% 16% 11% 11% 11% 12%

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

Financial highlights of CUPGL

Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net Sales 148.0 195.2 191.1 197.5 210.1 228.8

EBITDA 51.1 46.6 48.1 46.6 49.0 53.8

EBITDAM 34% 24% 25% 24% 23% 24%

Interest 11.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBDT 39.1 46.2 48.1 46.6 49.0 53.8

Depreciation 7.6 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.8 8.2

PBT 31.5 38.0 41.7 39.7 41.2 45.5

Tax exp 10.5 13.0 14.2 13.5 14.0 15.0

PAT 21.0 25.1 27.5 26.2 27.2 30.5

PATM 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13%

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 11 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

These steps towards geographical diversification would benefit the company in the

long run as its core NCR region is increasingly becoming saturated after 16 years of

operation.

Key Risks

End of exclusivity agreement to attract competition in NCR region IGL’s exclusivity to retail CNG to automobiles and piped cooking gas to households

in the National Capital has expired on January 1, 2012. Subsequent to this, the

company’s city gas distribution (CGD) network of pipelines is to be opened for

access by third parties. This can lead to higher competition in CNG distribution

network pressurizing the volumes of CNG sales for IGL. However, third parties

have to pay distribution fees to IGL.

Demand is elastic to pricing of fuel

Any sharp increase in prices of Natural Gas would impact conversion of CNG and

lower incentive to shift to PNG impacting volumes

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- 12 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Performance

IGL reported muted numbers during Q3FY16. Its net sales decreased by 1.6% YoY

to Rs. 929.2 crores. However, EBITDA de-grew marginally by 2% YoY to Rs. 187.3

crores as the company was able to maintain its margin at 20%. PAT decreased by

3% YoY to Rs. 105.1 crores. Depreciation increased due to expansion of operations

in Delhi and NCR region however, reduction in interest cost supported PAT during

the quarter.

In FY15, net sales stood at Rs. 3,681.0 crores, registering a degrowth of 6% YoY.

Its EBITDA, however, increased to Rs. 793 crores, while margins expanded by 150

bps YoY to 21.5%. PAT grew by 22% YoY to Rs. 437.7 crores, led by a decrease in

depreciation to Rs. 148.7 crores and lower finance costs. PAT margin expanded

270 bps to 11.9%

Quarterly Financial Performance (Rs crores)

Description Q3FY16 Q3FY15 FY15 FY14

Net Sales 929.2 944.4 3,681.0 3,913.8

Growth -1.6% -5.9%

Total expenditure 741.9 752.4 2,888.0 3,131.4

EBITDA 187.3 192.0 793.0 782.4

Margin 20.2% 20.3% 21.5% 20.0%

Depreciation 39.9 37.6 148.7 219.5

EBIT (Ex. OI) 147.4 154.5 644.3 562.9

Non-Operating Income 11.2 11.4 34.5 21.1

EBIT 158.6 165.8 678.9 583.9

Margin 17.1% 17.6% 18.4% 14.9%

Finance Cost 1.8 6.3 29.8 44.1

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBT 156.9 159.5 649.0 539.8

Margin 16.9% 16.9% 17.6% 13.8%

Prov. for Tax 51.7 51.3 211.3 179.5

PAT 105.1 108.2 437.7 360.3

Margin 11.3% 11.5% 11.9% 9.2%

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 13 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Outlook:

With continuous improvement in CNG demand and ramp up in new PNG customers

from existing areas, the growth trajectory in revenues (3 Yr CAGR of 13% to Rs

5,288 by FY18) should continue. IGL is expected to be the biggest beneficiary from

the SC dictate to ban new diesel vehicle registration, higher conversion of diesel

vehicles to CNG, increase in the DTC bus fleet and Delhi government’s thrust on

reducing air pollution. We expect net consolidated profit after tax to grow at a CAGR

of 15% to Rs 673.4 crore over the same period. The EBITDA margins (ex OI) and

PAT margins are expected to be at 21.6% and 12.7% respectively.

The consolidation of revenues from CUGL and MNGL with IGL will further lead to

increase in consolidated profit. This will further enable improvement in RoE and

RoCE of the company.

Consolidated Revenue, Gross and PAT margins

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16E

Mar

17E

Mar

18E

Net Sales EBITDA Margin PAT Margin

%Rs in Cr

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

RoCE and RoE to remain steady

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16E

Mar

17E

Mar

18E

ROE ROCE

%

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

Net working capital (in days)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16E

Mar

17E

Mar

18E

Debtor Days Creditor Days Inventory Days

No of days

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

IGL to soon be debt free

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16E

Mar

17E

Mar

18E

D/E

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

Page 14: Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/IGL_Ventura_PYT.pdf · initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

- 14 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Valuation

We initiate coverage on Indraprastha Gas Ltd as a BUY with a price objective of Rs

691 representing a potential upside of 31% from the CMP of Rs 528 over a period

of 18 months. We have used the PE multiple approach to value IGL and assigned a

multiple of 14X on FY18 consolidated EPS of Rs 49.4 to arrive at the target price.

We are upbeat on strong volume growth of gas off take given that :

Deterrent laws to discourage use of diesel capacity to a switch to CNG

Conversion of CNG growing at a brisk pace

Renewed thrust on improving public transport to lead to higher demand for

CNG buses

Availability of CNG dispensing centers

Increasing demand for PNG in domestic as well as commercial industry

Exploration into newer cities to drive incremental revenue growth

IGL P/E Trend

110

210

310

410

510

610

710

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

CMP 10X 13X 16X 19X 22X

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

IGL EV/EBITDA Trend

3,700

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

6,700

7,200

7,700

8,200

8,700

Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15

EV 7X 8X 9X 10X 11X

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

IGL P/B Trend

110

210

310

410

510

610

710

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

CMP 3X 3.5X 4X 4.5X 5X

Source: Indraprastha Gas Ltd, Ventura Research

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- 15 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 3681.0 4026.2 4509.4 5254.3 Adj. EPS 31.3 35.2 41.6 49.4

% Chg. 9.4 12.0 16.5 Cash EPS 41.9 47.4 56.5 67.7

Total Expenditure 2883.3 3208.9 3542.1 4122.0 DPS 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0

% Chg. 11.3 10.4 16.4 Book Value 149.9 177.8 211.0 252.0

EBDITA 797.7 817.3 967.3 1132.3 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBDITA Margin % 21.7 20.3 21.5 21.6 Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Income 34.5 28.2 36.1 39.4 Current Ratio (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

PBDIT 832.3 845.5 1003.3 1171.7 ROE (%) 20.9 19.8 19.7 19.6

Depreciation 148.7 171.1 207.7 256.9 ROCE (%) 30.5 26.6 26.9 25.9

Interest 34.5 5.9 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 649.0 668.5 795.7 914.8 P/E 16.9 15.0 12.7 10.7

Tax Provisions 211.3 220.6 262.6 283.6 P/BV 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.1

Reported PAT 437.7 447.9 533.1 631.2 EV/Sales 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4

Share of Associates 0.0 0.0 44.4 49.6 EV/EBIDTA 9.1 8.9 7.5 6.4

PAT 437.7 447.9 577.5 680.8 Efficiency Ratio (x)

PAT Margin (%) 11.9 11.1 12.8 13.0 Inventory (days) 4.1 4.7 5.0 4.8

Other opr Exp / Sales (%) 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 Debtors (days) 23.3 23.0 25.0 24.0

Tax Rate (%) 32.6 33.0 33.0 31.0 Creditors (days) 23.9 22.0 23.5 23.0

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement

Share Capital 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 Profit Before Tax 649.0 668.5 795.7 914.8

Reserves & Surplus 1958.1 2349.6 2814.7 3388.5 Depreciation 148.7 171.1 207.7 256.9

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes 41.1 1.0 -27.3 -115.9

Long Term Borrowings 145.3 45.3 0.0 0.0 Others -175.1 -242.8 -298.6 -323.0

Deferred Tax Liability 127.2 50.7 63.0 62.4 Operating Cash Flow 663.8 597.7 677.4 732.8

Other Non Current Liabilities 11.3 16.2 14.9 44.0 Capital Expenditure -214.8 -439.5 -471.3 -633.2

Total Liabilities 2381.9 2601.8 3032.5 3634.9 Other Investment Activities -148.9 -22.6 -85.9 -46.0

Gross Block 3176.1 3615.7 4087.0 4720.2 Cash Flow from Investing -363.7 -462.2 -557.2 -679.2

Less: Acc. Depreciation 1220.3 1391.4 1599.1 1856.0 Changes in Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Block 1955.8 2112.3 2386.9 2792.6 Changes in Borrowings -207.2 -100.0 -45.3 0.0

Capital Work in Progress 254.1 304.9 426.9 512.3 Dividend and Interest -120.0 -106.7 -117.6 -117.6

Other Non Current Assets 249.7 294.1 343.6 403.9 Cash Flow from Financing -327.2 -206.7 -162.9 -117.6

Net Current Assets -90.2 -121.9 -137.3 -86.4 Net Change in Cash -27.1 -71.2 -42.7 -64.0

Long term Loans & Advances 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Opening Cash Balance 299.0 271.9 200.7 158.0

Total Assets 2381.9 2601.8 3032.6 3634.9 Closing Cash Balance 271.9 200.7 158.0 94.0

Page 16: Indraprastha Gas Ltd. BUY - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/IGL_Ventura_PYT.pdf · initiate coverage on IGL with a BUY with a target price of Rs 691 (14X

- 16 - Monday, 22nd

February, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

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