Indonesian ElectionsIndonesian Elections

Dr Greg FealyDr Greg Fealy

ANUANU

Parties and PlatformsParties and Platforms

38 parties contesting legislative election38 parties contesting legislative election Categorising them is difficultCategorising them is difficult

– Often classified according to religion or ideology (eg, Often classified according to religion or ideology (eg, nationalist, Christian, Islamic) but boundaries between nationalist, Christian, Islamic) but boundaries between these categories are blurredthese categories are blurred

– Growing centrism in Indonesian politics resulting in Growing centrism in Indonesian politics resulting in part from increasing use of polling and national mediapart from increasing use of polling and national media Lots of parties blend religious and ideological messagesLots of parties blend religious and ideological messages

– Many parties are largely personal vehicles for wealth Many parties are largely personal vehicles for wealth and powerful politiciansand powerful politicians

‘‘Nationalist’ PartiesNationalist’ Parties

PD (Democrat Party) was PD (Democrat Party) was created as electoral created as electoral vehicle for SBYvehicle for SBY– Chaired by son-in-law and Chaired by son-in-law and

SBY’s wife dominant figureSBY’s wife dominant figure– Many members drawn from Many members drawn from

military and bureaucratic military and bureaucratic backgroundsbackgrounds

– 7% of vote in 20047% of vote in 2004– Recent polls have PD as Recent polls have PD as

high as mid-20%high as mid-20%– No real ideological No real ideological

coherence to partycoherence to party

‘‘Nationalist’ PartiesNationalist’ Parties

PDI-P (Indonesian PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Democratic Party of Struggle)Struggle)– Megawati is chair and Megawati is chair and

presidential nomineepresidential nominee– 19% in 2004; 34% in 199919% in 2004; 34% in 1999– Main opposition party since Main opposition party since

2004 and prospered in polls 2004 and prospered in polls because of thatbecause of that

– Polls range from about 15-Polls range from about 15-25%25%

– Mega both plus and minusMega both plus and minus

‘‘Nationalist’ PartiesNationalist’ Parties

GolkarGolkar– Former regime party of Former regime party of

Soeharto but remade itself Soeharto but remade itself since 1998since 1998

– Led by vice-president Led by vice-president Yusuf KallaYusuf Kalla

– 22% of vote in 1999 and 22% of vote in 1999 and 20042004

– Most experienced and Most experienced and hard-headed party hard-headed party machine in Indonesiamachine in Indonesia

– Polling suggests b/w 15-Polling suggests b/w 15-23% of vote23% of vote

‘‘Nationalist’ PartiesNationalist’ Parties

Hanura party of ex-General WirantoHanura party of ex-General Wiranto Gerindra party of former General and Gerindra party of former General and

Soeharto son-in-law Prabowo SubiantoSoeharto son-in-law Prabowo Subianto Both parties draw heavily on leaders’ former Both parties draw heavily on leaders’ former

army networks and are lavishly fundedarmy networks and are lavishly funded– Prabowo set new standards for political Prabowo set new standards for political

advertising on TVadvertising on TV Both parties have good chance of clearing Both parties have good chance of clearing

threshold but probably below 5%threshold but probably below 5%

Islamic PartiesIslamic Parties

Two types: ‘pluralist’ and IslamistTwo types: ‘pluralist’ and Islamist Pluralist Islamic parties rely on support of Pluralist Islamic parties rely on support of

mainstream Islamic organisations and use mainstream Islamic organisations and use Islamic symbols but do not promote sharia Islamic symbols but do not promote sharia agendasagendas– Formal ideological basis is Pancasila, not IslamFormal ideological basis is Pancasila, not Islam

Islamist parties have more ideological Islamist parties have more ideological Islamic agenda, including support for sharia Islamic agenda, including support for sharia implementationimplementation– Often more exclusivist in orientationOften more exclusivist in orientation

Pluralist Islamic partiesPluralist Islamic parties

PKB (National Awakening PKB (National Awakening Party) founded by Party) founded by Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) and based on Dur) and based on Nahdlatul Ulama communityNahdlatul Ulama community– 12% of vote in 1999; 11% in 12% of vote in 1999; 11% in

20042004– Constant leadership ructions; Constant leadership ructions;

Gus Dur now estranged from Gus Dur now estranged from partyparty

– Will continue to be a major Will continue to be a major partyparty

Pluralist Islamic PartiesPluralist Islamic Parties

PAN (National Mandate PAN (National Mandate Party) founded by Amien Party) founded by Amien Rais and based on Rais and based on Muhammadiyah Muhammadiyah communitycommunity– 7% of vote in 1999; 6% in 7% of vote in 1999; 6% in

20042004– Now led by ineffectual Now led by ineffectual

Soetrisno BachirSoetrisno Bachir– Plummeting support despite Plummeting support despite

massive funding by Bachirmassive funding by Bachir

Islamist PartiesIslamist Parties

PPP (United Development Party) based on both PPP (United Development Party) based on both NU and Muhammadiyah communitiesNU and Muhammadiyah communities– Currently led by Cooperatives Minister Suryadharma AliCurrently led by Cooperatives Minister Suryadharma Ali– 11% in 1999; 8% in 200411% in 1999; 8% in 2004– Demoralised party with lacklustre leadership; falling Demoralised party with lacklustre leadership; falling

supportsupport

PBB (Crescent Star Party) led by Forestry Minister PBB (Crescent Star Party) led by Forestry Minister MS KabanMS Kaban– About 2% in previous elections but party in declineAbout 2% in previous elections but party in decline

Islamist PartiesIslamist Parties

PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) is most interesting of Islamist is most interesting of Islamist partiesparties– Muslim Brotherhood inspired and Muslim Brotherhood inspired and

only genuine cadre party in only genuine cadre party in IndonesiaIndonesia

– 1% of vote in 1999; 7% in 20041% of vote in 1999; 7% in 2004– Best organised of Islamic parties Best organised of Islamic parties

and aiming at 15-20% in 2009and aiming at 15-20% in 2009– Likely to gain above 10%Likely to gain above 10%

Grim Islamic Party ProspectsGrim Islamic Party Prospects

Nearly all respected public opinion surveys over Nearly all respected public opinion surveys over last two years have suggested declining support last two years have suggested declining support for Islamic partiesfor Islamic parties– PKB: 4-7%PKB: 4-7%– PPP: 3-5%PPP: 3-5%– PAN: 3-5%PAN: 3-5%– PKS: 4-8%PKS: 4-8%– PBB: 1-2%PBB: 1-2%

Three factors: low public support for formal sharia-Three factors: low public support for formal sharia-isation (below 22%); internal ructions; poor isation (below 22%); internal ructions; poor leadershipleadership

Dynasties?Dynasties?

Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections

Importance of the 20%-25% thresholds for Importance of the 20%-25% thresholds for nominating candidatesnominating candidates– Limits tickets to 2 or 3Limits tickets to 2 or 3– Possibility of only one pair of candidatesPossibility of only one pair of candidates

All parties waiting for legislative election All parties waiting for legislative election results before finalising ticketsresults before finalising tickets– Highly fluid situation; few parties willing to Highly fluid situation; few parties willing to

commit themselves at this stagecommit themselves at this stage

SBYSBY

SBY is clear front-runnerSBY is clear front-runner– Approval ratings above 50% and some polls Approval ratings above 50% and some polls

have him with double the support of his nearest have him with double the support of his nearest challengerchallenger

– Seen as safe, steady, clean and decent, if a Seen as safe, steady, clean and decent, if a little boring and indecisivelittle boring and indecisive

– Reasonable economic results and success of Reasonable economic results and success of anti-poverty schemes have been key to his anti-poverty schemes have been key to his continuing popularitycontinuing popularity

– Running mate still undecidedRunning mate still undecided

MegawatiMegawati

In mid-2008, several polls had Mega in front In mid-2008, several polls had Mega in front of SBY but has now fallen well behind againof SBY but has now fallen well behind again– Has good political strategists but she continually Has good political strategists but she continually

fluffs attempts to remake her imagefluffs attempts to remake her image– Poor campaigner; often berates voters for not Poor campaigner; often berates voters for not

electing her in 2004electing her in 2004– Not a good coalition builderNot a good coalition builder

Has courted Sultan of Yogyakarta as Has courted Sultan of Yogyakarta as possible running matepossible running mate