indonesia : e conomic outlook 20 10-11 faisal basri 29 juli 2010
DESCRIPTION
INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010. Part I The World Economy. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011. * Projection Source s : IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010. Leading economic indocators kian membaik. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
INDONESIAINDONESIA::EECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20CONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-1110-11
Faisal Basri 29 Juli 201029 Juli 2010
Part IPart IThe World EconomyThe World Economy
The world economic outlook, 2009-2011The world economic outlook, 2009-2011
Description 2009 2010* 2011*World GDP growth, % -0.6 4.2 4.3
-United States -2.4 3.1 2.6
-Euro Area -4.1 1.0 1.5
-Japan -5.2 1.9 2.0
-Developing economies 2.4 6.3 6.5
-China 8.7 10.0 9.9
-India 5.7 8.8 8.4
-Asean-5 1.7 5.4 5.6
World trade growth, % -10.7 7.0 6.1* ProjectionSources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010
Leading economic indocators kian membaikLeading economic indocators kian membaik
Oil prices Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.have roughly doubled since Feb.Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
03:58 p.m EDT
US$76.81 =
Oil prices and stock marketOil prices and stock market
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
= 10,497.88
Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
= $1165.9
The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest
Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4th OPEC International SeminarVienna, March 18, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809.pdf)
Now … governments are the problemsNow … governments are the problemsMaastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP - Debt/GDP ratio < 60%
Bagian IIBagian IIPerekonomian IndonesiaPerekonomian Indonesia
Economic temperature Economic temperature coolercooler .. ..
02468
1012141618
perc
ent
2003 2004
4.6
Source: BPS.
2005
Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %Target BI: 5% + 1%
18.4
2006
14.6
2007
2008
2009
5.0
2010
Inflation remains high in the regionInflation remains high in the region
Source: World Bnak, September 2009
August inflation, y.o.y
BI Rate BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persenbertahan di 6.5 persen
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
(BI Rate, percent)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7%
Money market rates vs. BI rateMoney market rates vs. BI rate
Anomali ….Anomali ….
Level of credits to GDP, 2009Level of credits to GDP, 2009
Perbandingan sektor keuangan di Asia-pasifikPerbandingan sektor keuangan di Asia-pasifik
Belanja pemerintah masih seret
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Rekening Pemerintah di BI
Inter Bank Rate
BI Rate
percentRp Trn
Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas.
Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.
Heart beat has been Heart beat has been appreciating ...appreciating ...
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
8-A
pr
2-A
ug
4-N
ov
15-F
eb
23-M
ay
24-A
ug
1-D
ec
6-M
ar
12-J
un
14-S
ep
22-D
ec
29-M
ar
4-Ju
l
4-O
ct
24-J
an
30-A
pr
4-A
ug
11-N
ov
Feb
-19
May
-28
Sep
-01
8-D
ec
17-M
ar
21-J
un
Source: Bank Indonesia
(Rupiah per US$)
Foreign reserves Foreign reserves increasedincreased more than more than $$77 bil. bil.
30000.00
35000.00
40000.00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
70000.00
75000.00
80000.00
W1-
JaW
2-Fe
W3-
Ma
W4-
Ap
W1-
JnW
2-Jl
W3-
Ag
W4-
Sep
W1-
Nov
W2-
Dec
W3-
Jan
W4-
Feb
W1-
Apr
W2-
May
W3-
Jun
W4-
Jul
W1-
Sep
W2-
Oct
W3-
Nov
W4-
Dec
W2-
Apr
31-A
ug31
-Jan
29-J
un31
-Aug
5-O
ct15
-Nov
19-D
ec31
-Jan
6-M
ar15
-Apr
23-M
ay30
-Jun
7-A
ug15
-Sep
24-O
ctFe
b-27
Jul-3
130
-Dec
31-M
ay
Source: Bank Indonesia.
(US$ million)
Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIsForeign ownership in bonds and SBIs
Source: Bank Indonesia and MoF.
Balance of paymentsBalance of payments (US$ million) (US$ million)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
2008 2009 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 126 10,746 2,508 2,480 2,157 3,602 1,554
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 22,916 35,133 6,884 8,365 8,488 11,395 7,930
1. Exports, f.o .b. 139,606 119,480 24,179 28,130 31,273 35,899 34,292
2. Imports, f.o.b. -116,690 -84,347 -17,295 -19,765 -22,784 -24,504 -26,362
B. Services, net -12,998 -14,108 -2,743 -3,310 -3,509 -4,546 -3,572
C. Income, net -15,155 -15,140 -2,742 -3,776 -4,072 -4,551 -3,965
D. Current Transfers, net 5,364 4,861 1,109 1,201 1,248 1,303 1,160
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -1,832 3,548 1,593 -1,822 2,507 1,270 4,297
A. Capital Account 294 96 19 29 34 14 18
B. Financial Account -2,126 3,453 1,574 -1,851 2,474 1,255 4,279
1. Direct investment 3,419 1,928 453 400 472 604 1,939
2. Portfolio investment 1,764 10,336 1,950 1,893 2,972 3,521 6,218
3. Other investment -7,309 -8,812 -829 -4,144 -970 -2,869 -3,877
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS -238 -1,788 -146 394 -1,118 -918 770
I V. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 -12,506 -3,955 -1,052 -3,546 -3,954 -6,621
Indonesia’s post-crisis journeyIndonesia’s post-crisis journey
-21
-19
-17
-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Source: BPS.
6.6
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
Crisis peak
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
Megawati: Consolidation and
acceleration
SBY: Throws awayMomentum, and then made
correction
4.2
6.4
5.7
5.4
Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6.5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6.3%
Low quality — Sectoral growth rateLow quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)
2008 2009 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q1-10 share
Tradable 3.4 2.2 2.9 4.5 2.4 52.6
Agriculture 4.8 4.1 3.3 4.6 2.9 16.0
Mining & Quarrying 0.5 4.4 6.2 5.2 3.5 11.2
Manufacturing 3.7 2.1 1.3 4.2 3.6 25.4
Non-Tradable 8.7 7.1 5.6 6.4 9.4 47.4
Electricity, Gas & Water 10.9 13.8 14.5 14.0 7.2 0.8
Construction 7.3 7.1 7.7 8.0 7.3 10.0
Trade, Hotel & Rest. 7.2 1.1 -0.2 4.2 9.3 13.9
Transport & Comm. 16.7 15.5 16.4 12.2 11.9 6.2
Finance 8.2 5.0 4.9 3.8 5.5 7.2
Services 6.4 6.4 4.2 5.7 4.6 9.3
GDP 6.1 4.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 100.0 Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 2000-200Low quality growth, 2000-2009*9* (%) (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: BPS.
Non-tradable
GDP
Tradable
GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)
* First quarterSource: BPS..
Description 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Private consumption 5,0 5,3 4.9 3.9
Government consumption 3,9 10,4 15.7 -8.8
Fixed investment 9,4 11,7 3.3 7.9
Domestic demand 6,0 7,4
Exports 8,5 9,5 -9.7 19.6
Imports 9,0 10,0 -15.0 22.6
GDP 6,3 6.1 4.5 5.7
Foreign merchandise tradeForeign merchandise trade
2007 2008 2009 2010* 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Total export 114.1 137.0 103.1 60.1 13.1 20.0 -15.0 47.7
Non-oil and gas 92.0 107.9 86.6 48.9 15.5 17.3 -9.7 39.9
Oil and gas 22.1 29.1 16.5 11.2 4.1 31.7 -34.7 95.1
Total import 74.5 129.2 96.8 51.2 21.9 41.1 -25.0 53.3
Non-oil and gas 52.5 98.6 77.9 40.5 24.8 42.4 -21.1 47.3
Oil and gas 21.9 30.6 19.0 10.8 15.5 38.0 -37.8 80.8
Surplus (Deficit) 39.6 7.8 16.5 8.9
Non-oil and gas 39.5 9.3 16.9 8.4
Oil and gas 0.2 (1.5) (0.4) 0.4
Billion US$ Growth (yoy)Description
Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m)
* January-MaySource: BPS.
Foreign merchandise trade: monthlyForeign merchandise trade: monthly
Composition of imports (%, Jan-May 2010)Composition of imports (%, Jan-May 2010)
Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas)
2008 2009 2010*Exports 7,787 8,906 5,024Imports 14,948 13,497 7,134Trade Balance -7,161 -4,591 -2,110% of Total Exports 7.2 9.1 10.3Imports 15.2 17.3 17.6Rank Exports 4 3 3Imports 1 1 1*January-AprilSources: BPS
US$ million
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals
Sources: BPS
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
650000
700000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Visitors:2008 = 6,234,4972009 = 6,323,7302010 (Jan-May) = 2,767,122
Growth:Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63%Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43%Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14.6%
2008 2009 2010
Indeks tendensi konsumen
90
100
110
Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis
90
100
110
120
Source: BPS.
Bagian IIIBagian IIIPeluang dan TantanganPeluang dan Tantangan
Pemerintahan BaruPemerintahan Baru
Red shirts make bloody protest
MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters-pour-blood
Protestors burn churches in Malaysia
In God's name?A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15271154
January 2010
Menuju keseimbangan politik baru?
Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet.
“Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi.
Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?
Faktor-faktor pengerem
Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014.
Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN.
Kekompakan kabinet terganggu.
Kompromi-kompromi politik
Agenda populisme mengedepan.
Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.
Bagian IVBagian IVProspek 2010-14Prospek 2010-14
Projections of GDP by several agenciesProjections of GDP by several agencies
No Agency Date 2010 2011
1 Gov’t of Indonesia April 2009 5.8 6.2
2 Bank Indonesia March 2010 5.7
3 World Bank March 2009 5.6 6.2
4 Economist April 2010 5.6 5.9
5 ADB April 2009 5.5 6.0
6 IMF April 2010 6.0 6.2
Projections of GDP by expenditureProjections of GDP by expenditure
* Actual** ProjectionSources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.
Description 2008* 2009* 2010**
Private consumption 5,3 4.9 4.8 – 5.3
Government consumption 10.4 15.7 9.6 – 13.2
Gross fixed capital formation 11.7 3.3 7.1 – 8.6
Exports of goods & services 9.5 -9.7 6.4 – 7.2
Minus: Imports of goods & services 10.0 -15.0 8.0 – 8.8
Gross Domestic Product 6.1 4.5 5.4 – 6.5
Projections of GDP by sectorProjections of GDP by sector
Sector 2008 2009 2010* 1. Agriculture 4.8 4.1 3.4-3.6 2. Mining 0.5 4.4 1.4-3.0 3. Manufacturing 3.7 2.1 3.5-5.0 4. Utilities 10.9 13,8 10.7-11.2 5. Construction 7.3 7.1 6.6-7.5 6. Trade and hospitality 7.2 1.1 4.6-6.5 7. Transport and communications 16.7 15.5 15.2-16.6 8. Finance 8.2 5.0 6.8-6.9 9. Services 6.4 6.4 6.4-6.5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.1 4.5 5.4-6.5 *ProjectionSources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.
Indonesia: selected economic indicatorsIndonesia: selected economic indicators
2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011*GDP gowth (y-o-y, %) 6.3 6.1 4.5 5.4 - 6.5 5.8 - 6.9Nominal GDP (current prices (Rp trillions) 3,951 4,951 5,613 6,225 6,866GDP per capita (current prices, US$) 1,938 2,270 2,590 2,800 3,100 Open unemployment rate (%) 9.8 8.6 7.9 7.5 7.0 Inflation rate (%, year end) 6.6 11.2 2.8 5.0 4.0BI rate (%, year end) 8.00 9.25 6.50 7.00 7.50 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -0.1 -1.6 -2.0 -1.8Public debt (% of GDP) 35.1 32.0 30.4 29.0 27.0 Currrency (Rp/US$, average) 9,163 9,767 10,350 9,000 - 9,250 8,500 - 9,000Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.5 0.1 1.9 1.2 1.0Reserves (US$ billions) 56.9 52.1 66.1 75.0 85.0S&P's Rating BB- BB- BB- BB BB+
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