indo lpkr 14 sept 2011 - lippo karawaci - 14 sept 2011.pdf · 2011’s hot property segment:...
TRANSCRIPT
13 September 2011
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1
INDONESIA EQUITY Investment Research
Lydia Suwandi +62 (21) 2509888 [email protected] Lippo Karawaci
BUY Ý Target 1,000 Previous - Price IDR730
Property LPKR is the biggest listed property company by market cap. Through a merger of 8 property related companies in 2004, the company’s portfolio now encompasses urban development, large-scale integrated developments, retail malls, healthcare, hotel and leisure, as well as a fee-based income portfolio.
Stock Profile/Statistics Bloomberg Ticker LPKR IJ Share Capital (m) 23,078 Market Cap (IDRbn) 16,847 52 week H│L Price (IDR) 870 470 3mth Avg Vol (‘000) 89,750 YTD Returns (%) 7.4 Beta (x) 1.03
Major Shareholders (%) Pacific Asia Holding 27.0 Fidelity Magellan fund 5.3 Capital bloom investment 4.9 Public 62.8
Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 1m -7.6 -7.2 3m 12.3 10.4 6m 28.1 17.1 12m 54.2 28.1 6M Share Price Performance
A Vibrant Integrated Business Initiate with a BUY, TP of IDR 1,000. Lippo Karawaci, Indonesia’s largest property company by market cap, is set to post an earnings CAGR of 18% from 2010-2013f. Anchored by its large and diversified landbank in prime locations in greater Jakarta, West Java and Makassar, as well as its solid recurring income and an asset light strategy, the group’s growth prospects look upbeat. We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY call and forecast a IDR 1,000 per share price target by end-2012, based on a 30% discount to the stock’s NAV of IDR 1,435 per share. Our TP offers a 37% share price upside potential from current levels, implying a PER12-13f of 30.5-28.4x and PBV12f of 2.5x. Always a real estate developer. Although more than 50% of the company’s revenue in the past 5 years has been from recurring income (malls, healthcare, hotels and property & portfolio management), 79% of LPKR’s NAV still lies in its development properties. The company currently has a landbank of 1,542 ha spread over 4 different locations. Assuming sale of around 100ha per annum, this landbank should be sufficient for another 10-15 years of development, hence generating annual revenue of around IDR 1.3trn over the next 3 years. The company is currently undertaking 2 large scale integrated high-rise developments in Kemang Village and St. Moritz on a total of 20.2ha of land. Altogether, it has launched 11 towers garnering marketing sales totaling IDR 3.6trn as of Jun ’11. Industrial estate the new rave. Supported by strong demand for Indonesia’s industrial estates since 2010, about 43% of the 6M11 pre-sales of IDR 1.6trn came from LPKR’s developments in Cikarang. The impressive take-up also pushed up Lippo Cikarang’s industrial land price to the current USD 60/sq m, higher by more than 30% from USD 45/sq m in FY10, yet still at a 15% discount to its neighboring MM2100 industrial estate. We believe that the value of the company’s properties is almost certain to go up after a direct toll road access becomes reality. The company owns 51.6% stake in LPCK and around 8% of LPKR’s estimated NAV comes from the development projects in Cikarang. Self-funded expansion. LPKR has projects worth around USD1bn in the pipeline that include 20 hospitals and 15 new malls. These projects are expected to yield an IRR of 20% and when stable, the company will recycle the properties through a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). Currently, the types of properties that can be recycled are hospitals (through First REIT) and malls (through Lippo Maple Tree REIT Trust). If all goes to plan, a hospital or mall recycled through REIT will generate sufficient funding to build another 2 hospitals or malls.
FYE December (IDR bn ) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Revenue 2,565 3,125 3,853 4,714 5,284 Net Profit 388 525 679 806 865 % chg y-o-y 4.6 35.4 29.2 18.6 7.4 Consensus 395 495 605 717 864 EPS(IDR) 22.4 24.3 27.7 32.8 35.3 Dividend yield, % 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.0 ROAE(%) 8.3 8.3 7.9 8.3 8.3 ROAA(%) 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.3 3.2 PER(x) 32.5 30.1 26.4 22.2 20.7 PBV(x) 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 EV/EBITDA(x) 19 19 17 14 11
Sources: Company and OSK research
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
14-F
eb-1
1
28-F
eb-1
1
14-M
ar-1
1
28-M
ar-1
1
11-A
pr-1
1
25-A
pr-1
1
9-M
ay-1
1
23-M
ay-1
1
6-Ju
n-11
20-J
un-1
1
4-Ju
l-11
18-J
ul-1
1
1-A
ug-1
1
15-A
ug-1
1
29-A
ug-1
1
12-S
ep-1
1
79% of company’s NAV in development properties.
LPKR holds 7,326 ha of development rights, of which 4,816 ha or 65% has been acquired. Currently, the company has 1,542 ha of landbank on hand that is sufficient for another 10-15 years of development. LPKR’s landbank is in Karawaci, Cikarang, Karawang, and one project outside Java (in Makassar). The company’s geographically diversified landbank allows for unique products and project launches ranging from landed residential units, apartments, industrial estate and funeral homes.
Exhibit 1: LPKR’s project locations
Source : Company
Exhibit 2: LPKR’s residential and urban development
Source : Company
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
2011’s hot property segment: Industrial estates LPKR’s 6M11 pre-sales reached an astonishing IDR 1.6trn, doubling from the 6M10 pre-sales of IDR 849bn. About 30% of the sales was from selling 94.2ha of industrial land plots in Cikarang, in tandem with the strong demand for Indonesia’s industrial market that started in 2010.
Exhibit 3: LPKR’s residential and urban developments
Source : Company
Based on research by colliers, total sales of national’s industrial estate sector reached 543ha during year 2010, beating its historic high sales in 2005. However, we expect the total land industrial land sales for the whole of 2011 to break the all-time high again, considering that in just six months this year, the land sold up to 2Q11 had already hit 566 ha. Most of the industrial land transactions were in Bekasi area, that includes Lippo Cikarang.
Exhibit 4: Annual national industrial land sales
Source : Colliers International Indonesia-Research
Located in East of Jakarta, Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) has development rights on a total of 2,940 ha, of which the company has cleared more than 2,600 ha. As of Jun ’11, its total land stock stood at around 735 ha. Some 20%, or equivalent to 136 ha, is inventory for industrial sales which possibly lasting for less than a year and a half. There is no plan to change the land use for the remaining landbank from residential to industrial since the rezoning can be complicated and time consuming. Thus, the company will only replenish the land sold with new land adjacent to the existing development. Based on the company’s guidance, there is still some 1,000ha land in Cikarang that can be acquired at an estimated cost of at less than USD 20/sq m, which may boost gross margins from industrial sales to more than 50%, considering that the strong take-up in the industrial market also helped lift LPCK’s industrial land price by 30% to USD 60/sq m.
315 254 345 294 101
177 314 414 569
700 52 49
92 202
119
56 62
70
95 74 795
817 401
1,097
629
1,394 1,497
1,322
2,256
1,624
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 6M11
in IDR bn
Apartment
San Diego Memorial Park
Tanjung Bunga
Lippo Cikarang
Lippo Village
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Exhibit 5: LPCK and the surrounding areas
Source : Company, Riset Kontan, interview with Ray White
Exhibit 6: LPCK master plan Source : Company, Riset Kontan, interview with Ray White
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
Exhibit 7: LPCK industrial park Source : Company
Exhibit 8: Breakdown of Lippo Cikarang’s tenants Source : Company
Exhibit 9: Breakdown of Lippo Cikarang’s tenants Source : Company
Japan 6%
Taiwan6%
Korea7%
Australia1%
Malaysia1%
Local77%
Other 2%
By country of originAutomotive
13% Electronics 5%
F&B1%
Warehouse7%
Plastics6%
Pharmaceutical3%
Others65%
By industry clusters
121 178 196 231 214
55
136 218
338 486
177
314
414
569
700
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 6M11
in IDR bn Residential Industrial
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
According to the management, the land price of USD 60/sq m is still at a 15% discount to its adjacent development, MM 2000. We estimate LPCK’s total projects (including residential properties) to be worth around IDR 5.9trn in view of the expected completion of the new direct access interchange by November 2012. We believe the new access road should further unlock the land value in LPCK, which will in turn boost margins. It was the same case with Alam Sutera, which saw prices double from IDR 1.2m to IDR 2.75m per sq m after the company announced plans to open direct access into its developments. Since the access was opened at end-2009, prices rose again by more than 20% per annum to IDR 5.3m/sq m currently.
Exhibit 10: New direct access fires up land prices for ASRI
In IDR m per sq m 2007 2008 2009 2010 6M11 Residential 1.3 2.5 3.3 3.8 5.3 Commercial 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 7.0
Source : ASRI
Exhibit 11: Development progress of LPCK’s direct access as of Jul-11 Source : Company
Industrial estate peer comparison The three listed companies with large exposures to industrial property are Jababeka (KIJA), Lippo Cikarang (LPCK), and Surya Internusa (SSIA). All these companies posted strong revenue growth on the strong demand for industrial land that started in 2010. This was reflected in their 1H11 revenue from industrial sales, which grew by 5.7x compared with 1H10. Their stock prices have surged 87% to 419% YTD and are currently trading at a 56% discount to NAV with a PE12f of 7.5x. Among the 3, we still prefer LPCK despite the company’s lowest revenue growth in 1H11 and smallest estimated landbank in FY12. This was due to: i) our belief that the upcoming new direct access will further unlock the property value in Cikarang; ii) landstock for industrial sale might be scarce but LPCK still has 563ha land for residential use. We believe the strong demand for LPCK’s industrial estates will also attract demand for housing; iii) the company’s net cash position reflects its healthy balance sheet and will remain so since LPCK gets full support from its parent, LPKR; iv) the company’s PE12f is 3.7x is the cheapest among its peers and the industry average of 7.5x, and has the strongest ROE12f of 35.4%.
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
Exhibit 12: Industry peer comparison
Company Share Mkt.Cap NAV/ Disc. To PER ROAA ROAE
Price (IDR bn) Share NAV FY12 FY12 FY12 SSIA 420 1,976 570* 26% 10.8 6.8 14.9 KIJA 186 2,563 608** 69% 7.1 4.5 7.0 LPCK 2,050 1,427 8,423 76% 3.7 19.9 35.4 Average 57% 7.4 10.4 19.1 Weighted avg. 57% 7.5 9.0 16.4
* include non industrial assets (office, construction service, Hotel) ** per Dec'10, excluding powerplant
1H11 results Company Industrial landbank Industrial Revenue cash debt Net
(in ha) Revenue Growth y-o-y Gearing SSIA 482 554 1216% 598 463 -12.4% KIJA 200 134 306% 66 1,308 72.0% LPCK 91 237 176% 118 25 -14.0%
Source : Companies, Bloomberg consensus
Large scale developments: Kemang Village and St. Moritz Kemang Village was first launched in July 2007. Six apartment towers have been launched out of the planned 11 apartment towers. The total accumulated marketing sales value as of June 2011 was IDR 2.3trn, at an average selling price of Rp 22-23m/ sq m. The entire Kemang Village project is estimated at USD880m over the development period of 5-8 years.
Exhibit 13: Kemang Village master plan & construction in progress Source : Company
St. Moritz’s total area is around 11.4 ha. Like Kemang Village, the building concept is a “city within a city.” 5 towers have been launched from the planned 8 apartment towers, for total accumulated sales of IDR 1.4trn. The project is estimated to be worth USD1.2bn over a 5-10 year development period, with average selling prices currently at IDR 20-21m per sq m.
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 8
Exhibit 14: Progress of San Moritz’s masterplan & construction Source : Company
Despite the industrial property market hitting a peak, we believe the growth in the residential property market is likely to be more stable. This is due to: i) industrial land stock, particularly in the Bekasi region, which has better accessibility, becoming scarce due to continuous absorption. Thus we might expect sales activity in the next few years to slacken as companies need time to replenish land sold; ii) the lack of supply of residential units. The backlog of Indonesia’s national demand for housing totals 13.6m units while the annual demand for new housing is around 800,000, with property developers’ annual capacity possibly supplying only 200,000 housing units.
Exhibit 15: Industrial estate sector’s cummulative supply, demand and take-up rates Source : Colliers International Indonesia-Research
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 9
Exhibit 16: Industrial land distribution area Source : Colliers International Indonesia-Research
Exhibit 17: National housing condition
Description Total Accumulated housing deficit, units
13.6m
New housing demand (per annum), units
800,000 Developers production capacity (per annum), units 200,000
Source : Various
Ample room for growth of healthcare industry The company currently has 7 hospitals with a total of 1,227 beds under the Siloam Hospital network. LPKR’s wholly owned subsidiary, Siloam, is one of Indonesia’s hospital chains accredited by US-based Joint Commission International (JCI). JCI accreditation is the worldwide recognition of international health service standards and quality. As part of the company’s plan to transform into a USD8bn property company, it has plans for 20 more new hospitals over the next 5 years. Out of this number, 6 hospitals are being built with capex expected to reach USD 22m-25m per hospital with a construction period of 2 years and another 2 years’ incubation to allow earnings to stabilize. Management advises that the total investment in 20 hospitals including investment in health equipment would cost it a princely sum of USD460m. The contribution of the healthcare business in terms of revenue to total 2010 revenue is 35%, with strong revenue growth of 65% since 2007, much higher than LPKR’s development property (urban and large scale integrated property), with a revenue growth of only 26% over the same period. In FY2010, LPKR’s healthcare business recorded 551,000 outpatient visits and 36,000 inpatient admissions, with average revenues of IDR 593,000 per visit for outpatients and IDR 3.7m per patient day inpatient. We believe there are plenty of opportunities for future growth in Indonesia’s healthcare industry since there are only around 1,200 hospitals (600 are government hospitals) serving more than 220m people in Indonesia. According to WHO statistics, total healthcare spending in Indonesia in 2007 was only 2.2% of GDP compared with the average 3.6% of GDP for the South East Asia Region. Total healthcare spending in Indonesia per capita for health only reached USD42 compared with Singapore’s US$1,148. As such, we expect LPKR’s revenue from healthcare to grow by 15% pa (excluding projects in the pipeline) with relatively stable gross margins and operating margins at 25% and 12%, respectively.
Jakarta, 10%
Tangerang, 5%Bogor, 2%
Karawang, 36%Bekasi, 26%
Serang, 21%
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 10
Exhibit 18: LPKR’s healthcare revenue from 2006 to 6M11
Source : Company
Exhibit 19: Healtchare expenditure as % of GDP
Source : WHO- World Health Statistic
Exhibit 20: Per capita total expenditure on health
Source : WHO- World Health Statistic
362 395 452 526 607 346
212 233 291
370 429
247
573 627 743
896 1,037
288
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6M11
in IDR bn OPD IPD
2
3.2 3.4 3.5 3.43.7
2.2
4.43.9
3.13.7 3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand SE Asia Region
in %2000 2007
16128
33
803
67 2042
307
63
1148
13641
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand SE Asia Region
in USD 2000 2007
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 11
Self-funded expansion Besides the 20 new hospitals, LPKR also has 15 new mall projects in the pipeline. These projects are estimated to be worth a total of around USD1bn and give an expected an IRR of 20%. Through its integrated business model, the company can recycle its properties through a REIT once they are revenue generating and stable and fulfill REIT requirement. Usually it takes 4-5 years before the assets can be recycled through a REIT (1.5 to 2 years for theconstruction period and 2-3 years of incubation). Currently, the types of property that can be recycled are hospitals(through First REIT) and malls (through Lippo Maple Tree REIT Trust). If all goes to plan, one hospital or mall recycled through the REIT will generate sufficient funding to build 2 more hospitals or malls. For example, in December 2010, the company completed a sale and leaseback agreement for Siloam Hospital in Lippo Cikarang with LPKR-managed First REIT. LPKR also assisted First REIT in acquiring Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Center (MRCCC) Siloam Semanggi in Jakarta. First REIT’s acquisition cost for those two Indonesian hospital assets was SGD 205.5m, from which LPKR made a one-time gain of IDR195bn (amortized over 15 years). Post-acquisition, First REIT’s assets increased by 74.3% to SGD 603.4m while LPKR continued to wholly-own, manage, and control the business enterprise and operations as part of its umbrella of seven hospital groupsunder the Siloam Hospitals brand. In addition, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Bowsprit Capital Corp Ltd, the company will receive management fee as the manager of First REIT (First Real Estate Investment Trust - Singapore’s first healthcare real estate investment trust). In June ’11, LPKR completed the acquisition of a 27.24% controling stake in Singapore-listed Lippo Mappletree Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT), increasing its stake to 29.5%. The transaction also includes the acquisition of 40% interest in LMIRT for USD159m to make it a wholly-owned subsidiary. The transaction is expected to propel LPKR's mall and asset management segment into a USD4bn business in 3-4 years and position LPKR as the largest mall owner/manager in Indonesia and among the largest in South-East Asia. For this transaction, Lippo Group (LIPPO) executed a back-to-back placement of 1.45 billion existing shares owned by its affiliate, Pacific Asia Holdings Limited (PAH), at the same price per share for USD112m to strategic institutional investors. In turn, PAH directly took up 1.45bn new shares issued by LPKR, raising approximately USD112m, at the same price as the private placement and a restrictive 12-month lock-up period. Thus, PAH's effective current shareholding in LPKR remains unchanged. LPKR’s USD112m proceeds from the issuance of new shares were used to fund 70.4% of the acquisition while the balance USD47.1m, or 29.6% of the acquisition cost, was funded by LPKR's own internal cash resources, which stood at IDR 2.98trn as of June 2011. Presently the company operates 25 malls, representing approximately 25% of the retail mall market in Indonesia. The company plans to expand up to a total of 50 malls under its portfolio by 2016.
Exhibit 21: Structure of LPKR’s asset management business
Source: Company
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 12
Valuation. We derive our TP using a sum of the parts valuation. Most of the properties are valued based on NAV, the exception being the apartment sales’ revenue recognition, hospital, mall and portfolio & property management projects for which the DCF method was used and applying a WACC of 14.1%. Based on these calculations, we arrive at a TP of IDR 1,010 after deducting a 30% discount to our NAV of IDR 1,435/share. This provides a potential upside of 37% from the current share price, at a PE12-13f of 30.5-28.4x and PBV12-13F of 2.5-2.32x. This is admittedly high since the company completed a rights issue in June this year by issuing 1.45bn new shares.
Exhibit 22: NAV calculation ASSETS Area Utilization Price/sqm RNAV % RNAV
Ha Ratio ('000) Rp bn Own Rp bn URBAN DEVELOPMENT Lippo village 344 60% 7,164 14,787 100.0% 14,787
Lippo Cikarang 654 60% 1,264 4,961 51.6% 2,560
Tanjung Bunga 357 60% 1,560 3,342 50.3% 1,681
San Diego Hills 99 60% 5,289 3,142 100.0% 3,142
Micro suburbs 183 100.0% 183
Urban Development subtotal 22,352
LARGE SCALE INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
City of tomorrow 240 85.0% 204
Kemang Village 1,301 90.0% 1,171
St Moritz 1,111 100.0% 1,111
Simpruk 227 60.0% 136
Others devt. 1,276 100.0% 1,276
Large Scale subtotal 3,898
RETAIL MALLS Lease mall (Pejaten, Puri, PX, Binjai) 435 100.0% 435
Mall Bali 142 80.0% 114
Retail space inventory 593 100.0% 593
Retail malls subtotal 1,141
HOSPITALS 5 hospital -REIT FREIT 2,419
Balikpapan hospital 226 79.6% 180
Jambi Hospital 157 83.0% 130
Hospitals subtotal 2,729
HOTELS Lippo village-REIT FREIT 156
Jakarta, Medan, Pekanbaru 241 100.0% 241
Hotels subtotal 396
REIT units 779
Total Asset Value 33,856
Add: cash 2,655
Less: debt (3,389)
Est NAV 33,121
NAV/share 1,435
Discount 30%
Target price 1,000 Source: Company
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 13
FINANCIALS
BALANCE SHEET FYE Dec (IDRbn) FY09 FY10f FY11f FY12f FY13f Cash and cash equivalents 1,533 3,660 3,641 2,655 1,717 Trade accounts receivable 722 803 1,030 1,260 1,412 Inventories-net 5,893 7,069 8,078 9,861 11,368 Prepaid taxes & expenses 231 256 315 386 432 Fixed assets - net 1,246 1,206 1,548 1,866 2,197 Other asset 2,503 3,161 3,564 3,669 3,709 Total Assets 12,128 16,155 18,176 19,696 20,836 Loans 2,884 3,376 3,423 3,389 3,387 Trade payables 434 470 449 683 765 Accr exp. & Tax payable 628 690 794 971 1,088 Customers' advances 1,266 1,706 1,954 2,384 2,669 Deferred income 907 911 917 1,122 1,258 Other liabilities 720 823 768 707 646 Total Liabilities 6,839 7,976 8,304 9,256 9,813 Minority Interest 402 470 470 470 470 Capital Stock 1,730 2,163 2,308 2,308 2,308 Additional paid in capital 1,304 3,245 4,046 4,046 4,046 Others 74 48 315 315 315 Retained earnings 1,778 2,254 2,733 3,301 3,884 Total Equity 4,887 7,710 9,402 9,970 10,553 INCOME STATEMENT FYE Dec (IDRbn) FY09 FY10f FY11f FY12f FY13f Revenues 2,565 3,125 3,853 4,714 5,284 COGS 1,379 1,602 2,154 2,554 2,862 Gross profit 1,187 1,524 1,699 2,160 2,422 OPEX 706 802 875 1,070 1,199 Operating profit 481 721 825 1,090 1,223 EBITDA 584 832 981 1,269 1,426 Total Other Income (Expense) 31 (8) 74 (7) (35) Profit before associated co. 511 713 898 1,082 1,188 Profits of associated co 15 6 8 9 10 Profit before tax 527 719 906 1,091 1,198 Total Tax Expense-Net (90) (125) (193) (236) (264) Profit before Minority 436 595 713 856 934 Minority Interest (48) (69) (34) (50) (69) Net profit 388 525 679 806 865
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 14
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS FYE Dec (IDRbn) FY09 FY10f FY11f FY12f FY13f Net profit 388 525 679 806 865 Depreciation 120 109 156 180 204 Minority 42 68 - - - Changes in working capital 291 (1,223) (1,256) (1,273) (1,281) Operating cash flow 841 (521) (420) (287) (212) Capital expenditure (691) (142) (659) (428) (441) Investing cash flow (691) (142) (659) (428) (441) Net changes in debt (315) 492 47 (33) (3) Changes in share capital (1) 2,347 1,213 - - Dividend - (50) (200) (238) (282) Financing cash flow (316) 2,789 1,060 (271) (285) Total cash flow movement (167) 2,127 (19) (986) (938) Beginning cash balance 1,700 1,533 3,660 3,641 2,655 Ending cash balance 1,533 3,660 3,641 2,655 1,717 KEY RATIOS FYE Dec (IDRbn) FY09 FY10f FY11f FY12f FY13f Profitability ratios (%) Gross margin 46 49 44 46 46 Operating margin 19 23 21 23 23 EBITDA margin 23 27 25 27 27 Net margin 15 17 18 17 16 ROAA 3 4 4 4 4 ROAE 8 8 8 8 8 Liquidity rations (x) Current ratio 3 3 3 3 3 Quick ratio 1 1 1 1 1 Activity ratios (days) Account receivable turnover 76 76 76 76 76 Inventory turnover 1,539 1,589 1,350 1,390 1,430 Account payable turnover 77 62 55 45 35 Leverage ratios (%) Gearing 59 44 36 34 32 Net gearing 28 (4) (2) 7 16 Debt/capital 24 21 19 17 16
OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 15
OSK Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing. However, information and opinions expressed will be subject to change at short notice, and no part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. We do not accept any liability directly or indirectly that may arise from investment decision-making based on this report. The company, its directors, officers, employees and/or connected persons may periodically hold an interest and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned. Distribution in Singapore This research report produced by OSK Research Sdn Bhd is distributed in Singapore only to “Institutional Investors”, “Expert Investors” or “Accredited Investors” as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an “Institutional Investor”, “Expert Investor” or “Accredited Investor”, this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd (“DMG”). All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be used or re-produced without expressed permission from OSK Research. Published and printed by :- PT OSK NUSADANA SECURITIES INDONESIA
Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore
Jakarta Shanghai Phnom Penh
Shanghai Office OSK (China) Investment
Advisory Co. Ltd. Room 6506, Plaza 66
No.1266, West Nan Jing Road 200040 Shanghai
China Tel : +(8621) 6288 9611 Fax : +(8621) 6288 9633
PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia
Plaza CIMB Niaga, 14th Floor,
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.25, Jakarta Selatan 12920,
Indonesia. Tel : (6221) 2598 6888 Fax : (6221) 2598 6777
Malaysia Research Office OSK Research Sdn. Bhd.
6th Floor, Plaza OSK Jalan Ampang
50450 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
Tel : +(60) 3 9207 7688 Fax : +(60) 3 2175 3202
Hong Kong Office OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd.
12th Floor, World-Wide House
19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong
Tel : +(852) 2525 1118 Fax : +(852) 2810 0908
Singapore Office DMG & Partners
Securities Pte. Ltd. 10 Collyer Quay
#09-08 Ocean Financial Centre
Singapore 049315
OSK Indochina Securities Limited No. 263, Ang Duong Street (St. 110),
Sangkat Wat Phnom, Khan Daun Penh, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Tel: (855) 2399 2833 Fax: (855) 2399 1822