IGB- Basin Focal Project

Project Leader: Peter McCornick

Outline

1. Brief overview of IGB

2. What we know on Poverty, Water availability and

Access and Water productivity in IGB?

3. What IGB BFP work packages will do?

Note: Details presented here may change following the

inception workshop, scheduled for March 18-19th in

Kathmandu

IGB profile• Basin Area: 225 million-ha

• Population (2001): 747 million

• Percentage rural population (2001)– India: 75

– Pakistan: 68– Pakistan: 68

– Bangladesh: 80

– Nepal: 86

• Percentage of population below

High Potential

Lo Prod cti it

poverty line (2000) : 30.5%

• Net cropped area: 114 mha.

W t i i lt 91 4%Low Productivity • Water use in agriculture: 91.4%

SOME NUTS AND BOLTS

• Very large basins, so we have to be realistic

• Data, or lack thereof, especially hydrology data in the p y y gyGanges, presents a challenge

• Broad brush overview in the first “phase” and then pfocus down to two or three “sub-basins” -- to be finalized at inception meeting.p g

WORK PACKAGES

WP1 – Water Poverty AnalysisWP1 – Water Poverty Analysis

WP2 – Analysis of Water Availability and Access

WP3 – Analysis of Agricultural Water Productivity

WP4 – Institutional AnalysisWP4 Institutional Analysis

WP5 – Intervention Analysis

WP6 – Development & Application of the Knowledge

Base

INTERLINKAGES & INTEGRATION OF WORKPACKAGES

Production HydrologyBasin scale

OF WORKPACKAGES

Systems

CropsLivestock

FishAgroForestry

Hydrology

Water Accounting

Poverty

IncomeLivelihood

Geographical disaggregation

Spatially disaggregated water balance

Geographical disaggregation

Water Productivity

Factors of Land and Water Productivity,

d P t

(Water &)Poverty Analysis

Institutional Analysis

and Poverty

Potential Interventions

What we know on IGB

WP 1: Water Poverty AnalysisNational estimates are available• National estimates are available

• Regional estimates are available using HCES or HLSS surveys– India: State/regions– Pakistan: Provinces/Districts– Bangladesh: DistrictsBangladesh D str cts– Nepal: Regions

• Small area estimates are available for some countries • Small area estimates are available for some countries • Compatibility of data/estimates are issues to address

Sub-national rural poverty in IndiaState level headcount ratio (of India %)

1983-1984 1993-1994

River basin

Headcount ratio (%)0 - 55 - 1010 - 15

River basinboundaries

2005-2006

15 - 2020 - 2525 - 3030 - 3535 - 4040 - 4545 501999-2000 2005 2006 45 - 5050 - 5555 - 70

• Regional to district level estimates are availableavailable

• District level accuracy ???

Questions?

1. Where are the poor?

2. What is the contribution from agriculture (or non-agriculture) economic activities to poverty alleviation?

3 Wh t i t t f ti l li k f A il bilit A d3. What is extent of spatial linkages of Availability, Access andQuality of Water in conjunction with other assets (Land, wealth, skills, demography and access to infrastructure) for productive agriculture or non-agriculture economic activities and hence poverty alleviation?

4 What are the determinants of decreasing poverty in IGB?4. What are the determinants of decreasing poverty in IGB?

5. What were the patterns of agrarian transformation, linkages p g , gwith gender equality and women empowerment, and linkages with poverty alleviation?

IGB BFP – Work package 1 work plan

WP 1: Water Poverty Analysis 2008 2009 Primary responsibility/responsibility/Partners

1.1. Sub national poverty maps of IGB Nov Upali,Samad AlanSamad, Alan, Hakeem, Dhurba, ICAR

1.2. Spatial linkages of Water, Land Oct Upali, p g ,and agriculture and incidence of poverty and determinants of poverty alleviation in IGB

p ,Samad, Alan, Hakeem, Dhurba, ICAR

1.3 Agrarian transformation, gender equality and empowerment and poverty

Oct Samad,ICAR, Hakeemq y p p y

alleviation in IGB

What we know on IGB

WP2: Analysis of Water Availability and Access

IGB countries Per capita water resources (m3/person)1990 2000 2025 2050

TRWR (km3)

India 1985 2352 1971 1429 1254Pakistan 223 2008 1561 892 639Bangladesh 105 960 761 504 412

IGB b i P it t ( 3/ )TRWR

Bangladesh 105 960 761 504 412Nepal 210 11121 8934 5556 4137

IGB basins Per capita water resources (m3/person)1990 2000 2025 2050

Indus- India 97 2487 2109 1590 1732

TRWR (km3)

Indus- Pakistan 190 1713 1332 761 545Ganga - India 663 1831 1490 969 773

Access to water: Extent of irrigated and rainfed areas

Net irrigated area - % of net sown area

• Substantial part ofSubstantial part of IGB is irrigated

• District level data• District level data are available

NIA - % of NSA0 - 1010 - 2525 - 4040 55

State boundariesRiver basin boundaries

40 - 5555 - 7575 - 100

Access to water: Sources of irrigation supply

Net canal irrigated area - % of Net irrigated area Net groundwater irrigated area - % of Net irrigated area

Net surface irrigated area -% of NIA

River basin boundaries

Net groundwater irrigated% f NIA

Riber basin boundaries

% of NIA0 - 1010 - 2525 - 5050 - 7575 - 100

area - % of NIA0 - 1010 - 2525 - 5050 - 7575 - 100

Water Use

11[4%]Water withdrawals (km3)

2 2 2%11[4%]17 [6%] Irrigation -

Surface

D&I -

2 [2%]

2, 2%

131

125[44%]

Surface

Irrigation -Groundwater57

37 [38%]

[46%]D&I Groundwater

[58%]

Indus basinGanga basin g

• Canal and Groundwater withdrawal data for Pakistan-Indus are available

Water Accounting of Indus and Ganga basins

Water Availability in the Ganga Basin

Not-

250 km3 [36%]

422 km3

[61%]275 km3

[39%]

NotUtilizable

Utilizable -SurfaceOver

lap

172 km3

[25%]

[61%][39%]

Utilizable -Groundwater

lap34 km3

Water accounting in Ganga basin

UnutilizedPUWR

Process

248 km3

[60%]174 km3

[41%]

26%

5%

9%

Processevaporation

Non-processevaporation

9% Unutilizedreturn flows

IGB BFP – Work package 2 work plan

WP 2: Water Availability and l i

2008 2009 Primary responsibility/access analysis responsibility/Partners

2 1 W t ti f IGB b i (i O t L n2.1 Water accounting of IGB basins (in all three countries)

Oct LunaBharat, ICAR

2.2. Details water balances for few sub- Oct LunabasinsWater availability vs. demand for current water use will be compared with the past as well as future water use scenarios

Bharat, ICAR

as well as future water use scenarios

What we know about WP 3in IGB

• Time series data of

Water productivity of grains (kg/ m3 of consumptive water use)

irrigation/rainfed cropping patterns area available

• Can estimate water productivity variation of cereal/ grain crops over time

Water productivity (kg/m3)River basin boundariesState boundaries

Water productivity (kg/m3)0.001 - 0.150.15 - 0.350.35 - 0.50.5 - 0.650.65 - 0.90.9 - 1.281

What we know about WP 3in IGB?

Contribution of yield and CWU to water productivity

Irrigated yield versus consumptive water use ofIrrigated yield versus consumptive water use of grains crops at the district level

6.0

7.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

ield

(ton

/ha)

0.0

1.0

2.0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Yi

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Consumptive water use (mm)

IGB BFP – Work package 3 work plan

WP 3: Water Productivity analysis 2008 2009 Primary responsibility/P tPartners

3.1. Spatial variations agriculture water productivity for Indus and G B i

Nov Mobin/BharatAlan, Hakim, ICIAR, DhrubaGanga Basin

(use both secondary and RS data)Dhruba

3.2. Assess spatial linkages with agriculture input, socio-economic and environmental factors and

Nov Mobin/Bharat

poverty3.3 Sub basin studies of water

productivity assessmentNov Bharat

ICAR, Hakim, Alanp y m , ,

Expected products of WP 4:

WP 4: Institutional Analysis

1. Present an overview of water Institutions andpolicies in the IGB/countries

– Literature synthesis of / Expert interviews etc.

2. Three sub-basin/local studies to assess how pro-poor institutional and policy instruments impactedon:

• productivity growth

• poverty alleviation

E• Environment

WP 4 – Case studies

Select 2-3 for detail studies:

1 Pro poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM) strategies1. Pro-poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM) strategies• Objective: Try to address causality issues of water and

poverty that WP 1 cannot address, and suggest water management strategies that can helpg g p

2. Energy irrigation nexus• Study policy/institutional instruments for addressing issues

i i i ( ) i i lt E t i t h t i in energy crisis (use) in agriculture. Extension to what is known from Tushaar/Aditi studies

3 Institutional requirements for emerging culture fisheries in IGB3. Institutional requirements for emerging culture fisheries in IGB

4. Under what conditions can international treaties between India and Nepal, Bangladesh can work and benefit both sides

IGB BFP – Work package 4 work plan

WP 4: Water Institutions analysis 2008 2009 Primary responsibility/responsibility/Partners

3.1. Overview of basin institutions Nov TushaarAditi Alan HakimAditi, Alan, Hakim,

3.2. Case study results Nov TushaarAditi, Elena, Alan, HakimHakim

Expected products in WP 5:

WP 5: Intervention Analysis1 Overview of interventions in productivity improvements and poverty1. Overview of interventions in productivity improvements and poverty

alleviation• Physical (infrastructure development), technological, extension, capacity

building agronomical (practices quality of inputs)building, agronomical (practices, quality of inputs)• Study different aspects of interventions

• Nature, level (farm, watershed, system), location (agro-climatic zone), procedures ofimplementation, impacts

• Infrastructure development interventions

2. Impact assessment of few interventions using rapid appraisalsI ( /b fi ?)• Impacts (cost/benefits?)

• Adaptability in other locations• Scaling up issues

IGB BFP – Work package 5 work plan

WP 5: Intervention analysis 2008 2009 Primary responsibility/responsibility/Partners

5.1. Overview of interventions Nov TBD (ICAR), Bharat, Hakeem, Alan, Hakim, Dhruba

5.2. Impact assessment of interventions Nov TBD (ICAR), Bharat HakeemBharat, Hakeem, Alan, Hakim, Dhruba

Expected products in WP 6: Development of knowledge base

1. Integration of data into IDISAddi /i i d t d lt t IGB BFP b• Adding/improving data and results to a IGB BFP web pagein terms of work packages

2. Workshops• Project dissemination workshop (3)j p

IGB BFP – Work package 6 work plan

WP 6: Knowledge base 2008 2009 Primary responsibility/responsibility/Partners

6.1. IDIS web page for IGB BFP xxxx xxxx Bharat/Matin (IDIS)

6.2. Inception workshop Mar Peter

6 3 First year workshop Dec6.3. First year workshop Dec

6.4. Second year mid term workshop Jul

6.5. Final workshop Dec

KEY OUTPUTS FROM THE IGB-BFPTHE IGB-BFP

1. Inception Report2 Spatial variation of poverty in IGB2. Spatial variation of poverty in IGB3. Water, land & poverty linkages in IGB4. Water accounting of the IGBg5. Water balance for three sub-basins6. Assessment of Agricultural Water Productivity

(AWP)(AWP)7. Determination of AWP in three sub-sub-basins8. Overview of institutions within the IGB9. Institutions within sub-basins10. Overview of AWM interventions in the IGB11 Recommendation on priority interventions 11. Recommendation on priority interventions 12. Synthesis Report for the IGB BFP

IGB BFP

To whom are we producing IGB BFP results?• CPWF, CGIAR

• Our Partners

– Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)/

– PCAR/BCAR/NCAR

• Policy makers at National and State/Provincial levels

• System managersSystem managers

• NGO’s/ Civil Society

N i l/I i l h• National/International researchers

Thank you

Poverty trendsIndia PakistanIndia

40

50

60

ratio

(%)

Rural

Pakistan

30

40

atio

(%) Rural

Total

0

10

20

30

Hea

dcou

nt

Total

Urban10

20

Hea

dcou

nt ra

Urban

01973-1974

1983 1993-1994

1999-2000

2004-2005

Source: ADB 2004 based on Planning Commission estimates

0

FY93 FY94 FY97 FY99Source: ADB 2002, based on FBS estimates

Nepal

40

50

(%)

Rural

Bangladesh

50

60RuralTotal

10

20

30

Head

cou

nt ra

tio

Total

U b

20

30

40Urban

0

10

1995-1996 2003-2004

Urban

Source: National Planning Commission Secretariate

0

10

1883/84 1988/89 1991/92 1995/96 2000

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2002

Sun-national Poverty – Pakistan

Provinces 1995-1996 2003-2004 Change

Punjab 25.2 33.0 31

Northern Punjab 10.3 24.4 137

Central Punjab 27.5 31.0 13

Southern Punjab 31.6 38.9 23

Sindh 24.1 26.6 10

NWFP 35.5 42.6 20NWFP 35.5 42.6 20

Balochistan 28.6 22.8 -20

Source: ADB 2002 based on Federal Bureau of Statistics 2001Source: ADB 2002 based on Federal Bureau of Statistics 2001

Sub-national Poverty in Nepal

1995-1996 2003-2004 Change

NLSS regions

Katmandu 4.3 3.3 -23

Other urban 31.6 13.0 -59

Rural Western Hills 55.0 37.4 -32

Rural Eastern Hills 36.1 42.9 19

Rural Western Terai 46.1 38.1 -17

Rural EasternTerai 37.2 24.9 -33

Ecological regionsEcological regions

Mountains 57.0 32.6 -33

Hills 40.7 34.5 -35

Terai 40.3 27.6 -32

Sub-national Poverty in Bangladesh