India’s Approach to Climate Change Mitigation

Amit Garg

Presentation forInternational Climate Change Conference, Johannesburg

October 19, 2005

The Setting

India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km, over a billion people)

Vast sectoral and regional diversity in GHG emissions

Occupies 2.4% of the world’s land area but supports 16.2% of the world’s human population

Emitted 1205 million ton CO2-equivalent in 1994 and 1522 million ton CO2-equivalent in 2000

Emission growth rates are declining

Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system

Indian GHG Emission Trends

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2000 emissions (Mt-CO2-equivalent):

CO2 1030

CH4 412

N2O 68

F-gases 12

Total 1522 Mt-CO2-equivalent

MARKAL Model Applications for India

Four words sum up India’s approach to climate change mitigation

Climate Friendly Sustainable Development

Approach to MitigationEnergy efficiency in various sectors

Demand side management

Climate friendly initiatives

Policy reforms

Renewable energy

Millennium Development Goals, energy needs and GHG emissions

Carbon mitigation (achieved and future potential)

Some mitigation results

Energy Efficiency Improvements in Energy Intensive Industries

Average Consumption Sector Units 1990-91 1994-95

Best Technology 2003-2004

Cement Kwh/ ton 132 120.5 82 Paper Mwh/ ton 1.255 1.003 0.9 Caustic Soda Kwh / ton 3351 3130 2150 Aluminium Kwh/ ton 16763 16606 13100 Urea Kwh / ton 425.6 390 340 Steel G.Cal / ton 11.27 8.93 7.5

Energy Saving Potential

End-use type Potential Energy Savings (GWh)

Motors and drive systems (Industry and agriculture sector)

80000

Lighting (domestic, commercial and industrial sector)

10000

Energy intensive industries 5000

Total annual savings possible 95000

Potential for 130 Mt-CO2 emission mitigation per yearSource: Compiled from India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

Climate Friendly Initiatives

This ambitious Project:• improves driving conditions drastically• reduces traffic congestions• thus results in lower fuel consumption

Converting 13,146 km of existing road networks and 1000 km of port and other connectivity into four/ six-lane highways.

Cost US$ 11.8 billion

Annual socio-economic benefits estimated at US$ 2 billion/ year

National Highway Development Project

Estimated to result in about 3.2 million ton CO2 emission mitigation per year

Metro Rail in Large Cities

The Metro Rail in New Delhi uses state-of-the-art technology and would:• reduce congestion on roads• road to rail modal switching• save fuel• reduce local pollutants and GHG emissions

Eight other large Indian cities have also started similar projects

Biofuels – Ethanol and Biodiesel

Ethanol• At Present 5% Blend with gasoline will require 500 million liters

per year• 10% Blend will require 1.2 billion liters by 2006-07• 20% Blend will require 4 billion liters by 2012

2.5 Mt-CO2 mitigation per year by 2006-078 Mt-CO2 mitigation per year by 2012

10.485.242.6252.332006-07*

9.924.962.4849.562005-06*

9.404.702.3546.972004-05

@ 20 %@ 10 %@ 5 %

Bio-diesel requirements for blending (Million Ton)

Diesel Demand (Million Ton)

Year

Biodiesel: Indian Demand Profile

* Planning Commission EstimatesAbout 7 Mt-CO2 mitigation in 2006-07

We have nearly 60 million hectares of wasteland, of which 30 million hectares are available for energy plantations like 'Jatropha'. Once grown, the crop has a life of 50 years. Each acre will produce about 2 ton of bio-diesel at about Rs. 20 per liter. Bio-diesel is carbon neutral and many valuable by-products flow from this agro-industry. Intensive research is needed to burn bio-fuel in internal combustion engines with high efficiency

and this needs to be an urgent R&D program. India has the potential to produce nearly 60 million ton of biofuels annually, thus making a significant and important contribution to the goal of energy independence.

FROM THE ADDRESS TO THE NATION BY THE PRESIDENT OF INDIA DR. A.P.J. ABDUL KALAM ON THE EVE OF 59th INDEPENDENCE DAY August 14, 2005

Jatropha Plantation in India Jatropha plant

Jatropha plantation on reclaimed desert using sewage waste water in Middle East

Efficient and Cleaner Road Transport

Euro II equivalent standards in force now, Euro III from 2006 and Euro IV from 2008

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for all public transport in the 2 largest Indian cities - Delhi and Mumbai

CNG in other large cities, like Pune, Kanpur, Lucknow, Agra, Bareilly and Faridabad, over the next 2 years

Auto LPG is also being supplied in the 10 most polluted cities of India - Agra, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kanpur, Kolkata, Mumbai and Pune

REVA: The indigenously built electric car is commercially available

Climate Friendly Policy Reforms

The momentous economy wide reforms initiated in India in 1991 embraced the variety of sectors and activities that emit greenhouse gases as well as other pollutants.

• Energy Conservation Act 2001• Energy consumption norms for each industry• Energy labeling and standards for all electrical appliances• Establish energy efficient-building codes• Bureau of Energy Efficiency established

• Power sector reforms• Major thrust area• Electricity Act 2003• Generation, transmission and distribution unbundled

Climate Friendly Policy Reforms (contd.)• Power sector initiatives

• Super critical technology for NTPC mega power plants• IGCC (2 plants of 100 MW each) planned• Enhance hydro share to 27% by 2012 (add 32 GW hydro capacity by 2012 and 50 GW by 2017)

• Hydrocarbon sector reforms• Pricing reforms – dismantling of Administered Price Mechanism since 2002• Petroleum product pipeline policy • Auto fuel policy (efficient vehicles and cleaner fuels)

• Coal sector reforms• Pricing reforms - Colliery Control Order (2000), the prices for all grades of coking and non-coking coal have been deregulated• Coal bed methane exploitation• Privatizing of coal mining is under active consideration• R&D on CO2 capture and storage

Population Policy

Population control and family welfare policies have indirectly contributed to GHG emission abatement.

Population policy has resulted in reducing births by almost 40 million during the last 30 years.

At present average GHG emissions of 1.5 ton-CO2 equivalent per capita per year, this translates into 60 Mt-CO2 equivalent mitigation per year.

Carbon emissions =

Carbon intensity of energy X Energy intensity of GDP X Per capita GDP X Population

Renewable Energy

India has one of the most active renewable energy programmes in the world

3.26 million biogas plants34.3 million improved wood-burning stovesSolar (details on next slide) Wind (1507 MW – fifth in the world)Biomass (358 MW)Small, mini and micro-hydro (1406 MW)Municipal solid waste (15 MW)Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (140 MW) naphtha and solar based

10% of all new capacity additions by renewables till 2012

Solar Power Lights Rural India

350,000 solar lanterns177,000 home-lighting systems41,400 street-lighting systems1.17 MW power capacityOver 4200 solar-pumping systems

Bagasse-based power generation in

sugar industry

Small hydro projects

Renewable Power

MDG, Energy Needs and EmissionsMillennium development goals

and global targets India’s national targets Energy needed

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a dayTarget 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Double the per capita income by 2012

Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012

Reduce decadal population growth rate to 16.2% between 2001–2011 (from 21.3% during 1991–2001)

Quantify energy inputs needed for increased production and consumption. Quantify energy inputs needed for increased production and consumption.

Quantify energy needed for production, transportation, storage and distribution of family planning and maternal and child health supplies and personnel.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007

Increase in literacy rates to 75% by 2007 (from 65% in 2001)

Quantify energy needed for school lunches; roads and transportation; construction of buildings; production of books, teaching materials; drinking water, sanitation; lighting, fans, appliances

Carbon Savings in Year 2000 (Mt-C)

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Carbon Emissions Saved (Mt-C): Conservation and Renewable Energy

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Biogas StovesWind Small HydroEnergy Conservation

MARKAL Model Applications for India

Some Mitigation Results for India

Mitigation Options, Potentials and Costs Greenhouse Gas

Mitigation Options Mitigation Potential

2002-2012 (million tons)1

Long-term Marginal Cost

($/ Ton of carbonequivalent)1

Demand-side Energy Efficiency 45 $0-15 Supply-side Energy Efficiency 32 $0-12 Electricity T&D 12 $5-30 Renewable Electricity Technologies 23 $3-15 Fuel Switching - gas for coal 8 $5-20

Carbon

Forestry 18* $5-10**

Enhanced Cattle Feed 0.66* $5-30** Anaerobic Manure Digesters 0.38* $3-10** Low Methane Rice Varieties2 Marginal** $5-20

Methane (CH4)

Cultivar practices2 Marginal** $0-20 Improved Fertilizer Application2 Marginal** $0-20 Nitrous Oxide

(N2O) Nitrification Inhibitors2 Marginal** $20-40 Note: 1. All numbers, unless explained otherwise, are based on modeling exercises reported in Rana and Shukla (2001), Ghosh et. al. (2001) and Garg and Shukla (2002). * Estimated based on ALGAS (1998). ** Estimated based on discussions with Indian experts

Marginal Cost of Carbon Mitigation (1995-2035)

6 billion tons of mitigation below $25/ton of carbon

Carbon mitigation (billion ton)

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Methane Mitigation Cost Curve

CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions (IB2)

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Double Decoupling

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Energy Carbon Electricity GDP

Past Trends

Future Projections

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Electricity

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Past Trends Future Projections

Declining Intensities

Carbon Emissions ( Million Ton) Climate friendly initiatives have contributed to 410 Mt-CO2 mitigation during 1991-2000

Mitigate 8 Bt-CO2 over 2000-2030 to transit from BAU to Alternate developmental pathway

Welfare loss due to;

• Mitigation costs

• Other development paradigms follow BAU scenario (and not Alternate)

Better to follow climate friendly development path from the beginning

Development Path Transitions and CO2 Emissions

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BAU

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Thanks