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50
th
IG
C
50th
INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE
17th
– 19th
DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India
PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL OF GUWAHATI CITY
B, Sharma1, Assam Engineering College, [email protected],
M, Doley2, Assam Engineering College, [email protected]
ABSTRACT
This paper presents assessment of the liquefaction potential of Guwahati City, in Assam. The assessment
was done for saturated cohesionless deposits. Standard penetration test and simplified procedures has
evolved as a standard of practice for evaluating the liquefaction potential of soils through the works of
Seed and Idriss (1971, 1982) and Seed et al. ( 1983,1985), Cetin et al (2004) and the Idriss and
Boulanger (2004) method. In the context of probabilistic analysis this methods are known as deterministic
methods. Probabilistic method of liquefaction assessment is done in terms of probability of liquefaction.
In this paper an attempt has been made to predict the liquefaction susceptibility of Guwahati city based
on corrected SPT values using probabilistic performance based approach of Toprak et al. (1999) and
Zuang et al. (2002). Both the methods are based on logistic regression analysis. Selection of the two
probabilistic method is done arbitrarily and the methodology and procedures of the methods are
explained and assessment of liquefaction susceptibility done. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) N values,
engineering properties of the soils and depth of water table were taken from a data base of 200 boreholes
upto 30 meter depth covering an area of 262 km2 in Guwahati city. To determine the N value of the soil
with depth standard penetration test was done at every 1.5 m interval . Undisturbed and disturbed soil
samples were collected to determine the engineering properties of the soils in the laboratory. Guwahati
falls in zone V according to the seismic zoning map of India, so a design peak ground acceleration of 0.36
g was used . In this study the soil layers that were identified for liquefaction analysis are fine to medium
sand and silty sands that have classification of SP, SW, SC, SM, SP-SC. Inorganic silt of classification
ML, ML-CL and non plastic inorganic silts were also analysed for liquefaction susceptibility.
Liquefaction susceptibility from the methods is presented as a GIS based map showing zones of levels of
risk of liquefaction. It has been found that the two logistic regression probabilistic approach have yielded
different results. In all the bore holes it is seen that Zuang et al. (2002) is showing consistently lower
values of probability compared to Toprak et al.(1999). Results have also been presented in the form of
graphs showing probability of liquefaction with depth. Comparison of the two methods in the
probabilistic approach have shown a difference in the values of probabilities in the same depth. This is
shown in Fig.1. It is seen that Juang et al. (2002) is showing lower values of probability compared to
Toprak et al. (1999) for the bore holes 5 and 8. For an earthquake magnitude of 6 the variation is seen to
be more compared to an earthquake magnitude of 7.5 and 8.1. This observation is consistent in 30 bore
holes but only the degree of under estimation varies.However it is seen that the probabilities obtained
from logistic regression are influenced by the form of the function adopted for the regression, and by the
data set used in the regression. The percentage variation with respect to Juang et al. (2002) for an
earthquake magnitude of 7.5, being 63.9% to -13.3%.
1Sharma_Binu1, Civil Engineering, Professor, Guwahati, India, [email protected]
2Doley_Monalisha2, Civil Engineering, M.E.student, Guwahati, India, [email protected]
Binu Sharma, Monalisha Doley
14
12
10
8
6
0 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 6
Juang et al. (2002), M = 6
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 7.5
Juang et al. (2002), M = 7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 8.1
Juang et al. (2002), M = 8.1
Fig.1 Comparison of probability between Toprak et al. (1999) and Juang et al. (2002) for borehole 8.
Fig.2 shows the probabilistic liquefaction potential map of Guwahati city for an earthquake
magnitude of 7.5 according to Juang et al. (2002). The map shows zones of different levels of risk of
liquefaction. It is observed from the map that the southern bank of river Brahmaputra with the areas of
Palashbari, Azara, Jhalukbari, Pandu, Bharalumukh and Uzanbazar, some areas in G.S.Road, Gorchuk
area and areas near Chandmari have probabilities of liquefaction greater than 50%. Some areas in the
northern bank of the city are also susceptible to liquefaction.
Keywords: Liquefaction, Probability, Standard penetration test.
50
th
IG
C
50th
INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE
17th
– 19th
DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India
PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL OF
GUWAHATI CITY
Binu Sharma, Professor, Assam Engineering College, [email protected]
Monalisha Doley, Student, Assam Engineering College, [email protected]
ABSTRACT: This paper presents assessment of the liquefaction potential of Guwahati City, in Assam. The
assessment was done for saturated cohesionless deposits. Standard penetration test and simplified procedures has
evolved as a standard of practice for evaluating the liquefaction potential of soils. In the context of probabilistic
analysis this methods are known as deterministic methods. Probabilistic method of liquefaction assessment is done
in terms of probability of liquefaction. In this paper an attempt has been made to predict the liquefaction
susceptibility of Guwahati city based on corrected SPT values using probabilistic performance based approach of
Toprak et al. (1999) and Juang et al. (2002). Both the methods are based on logistic regression analysis. Corrected
SPT N values and engineering properties of the soils were taken from a data base of 200 bore holes of Guwahati
city covering an area of 262 km2. Guwahati falls in zone V according to the seismic zoning map of India, so a
design peak ground acceleration of 0.36 g was used. Liquefaction susceptibility from the methods is presented as a
GIS based map showing zones of levels of risk of liquefaction. It has been found that the two logistic regression
probabilistic approaches have yielded different results. In all the bore holes it is seen that Juang et al. (2002) is
showing consistently lower values of probability compared to Toprak et al. (1999). Results have also been
presented in the form of graphs showing probability of liquefaction with depth. Comparisons of the two methods in
the probabilistic approach have shown a difference in the values of probabilities in the same depth. However it is
seen that the probabilities obtained from logistic regression are influenced by the form of the function adopted for
the regression, and by the data set used in the regression.
Keywords: Liquefaction, Probability, Standard penetration test.
INTRODUCTION In the deterministic approach, evaluation of
liquefaction potential is done by the simplified
methods that follow Seed and Idriss (1971,1982)
and Seed et al (1983,1985).These methods were
developed from field performance case histories at
level ground sites together with in situ tests data at
these sites such as the standard penetration test (
SPT). In this approach, factor of safety (Fs),
defined as the ratio of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR)
over cyclic stress ratio (CSR) is evaluated and
liquefaction of a soil is predicted to occur if the
factor of safety (Fs) is less than or equal to 1. Due
to the uncertainties that exist in the adopted model
and the input data, the computed factor of safety
(Fs) is often required to be greater than a limiting
value. According to the Building Seismic Safety
Council [BSSC] 1997, the limiting value of factor
of safety (Fs) is required to be greater than 1.2 – 1.5
to ensure that no liquefaction will occur. A sound
engineering judgement is required to decide upon a
suitable value of factor of safety (Fs). Compared to factor of safety, the probability of
liquefaction is more suitable as an index for
assessment of liquefaction potential and for
liquefaction potential mapping. Determination of
the probability of liquefaction is important for
assessment of the performance based earthquake
engineering. Several researchers have contributed
to the work of statistical/probabilistic evaluation of
liquefaction potential. Liao et al. 1988, Youd and
Nobel 1997, Toprak et al. (1999) and Juang et al.
(2000, 2002) have done logistic regression analysis
of field records to established empirical equation to
Binu Sharma, Monalisha Doley
calculate probability of liquefaction. Haldar and
Tang 1979, Yegian and Whitman, 1978 have
applied probability and statistics to deal with
uncertainties that are associated with the simplified
methods. Cetin et al. (2004) have developed
stochastic models for assessment of seismic soil
liquefaction developed within a Bayesian
framework. Juang et al. (2002) and Juang et al.
(2012) proposed a new approach to evaluate the
probability of liquefaction by using a Baysian
mapping function that depends on a particular
deterministic approach.
The logistic regression approaches are
developed based on field data and the form of
logistic function. The equation for liquefaction
probability established by the logistic regression is
independent of the deterministic methods based on
standard penetration test or the cone penetration
test.
In this paper comparison of probabilities
obtained by the logistic regression of Toprak et al.
(1999) and Juang et al. (2000, 2002) is presented of
Guwahati city. A soil database from 200 boreholes
of Guwahati city was used for the purpose. The soil
database was from a project funded by the
Directorate of Science and Technology, India for
microzonation of Guwahati City.
According to Toprak et al. (1999) SPT-based
probabilistic liquefaction boundary curves were
developed using logistic regression analyses. The
logistic regression equation, obtained from the
world wide liquefaction database (total number of
data points = 440) is given by the following
equation
(1)
Where CSR = cyclic stress ratio and MSF =
magnitude scaling factor.
In Eq. (1) CSR were calculated according to Youd
and Idriss (1997). All CSR were adjusted to Mw =
7.5 using the Idriss (1999) magnitude scaling factor
(MSF). (N1)60cs is determined according to Youd
and Idriss (1997). In logistic regression, the
classification or prediction is generally considered
a success for a liquefied case if PL > 50%, whereas
the prediction is considered a success for a
nonliquefied case if PL < 50%.
Probability of liquefaction, according to Juang et
al. (2002), was calculated using two different
approaches. One was by the logistic regression and
the other was by the Bayesian mapping. Logistic
regression is a well-established statistical
procedure, whereas Bayesian mapping is a
relatively new application of the Bayes’ theorem to
evaluate probability of soil liquefaction. Logistic
regression was performed on a database of 243
cases with SPT measurements that were taken from
a database of field performance cases compiled by
Fear and McRoberts (1995). The logistic
regression analysis of these data gave the following
probability equation:
(2)
Where PL = probability of liquefaction.
The cyclic stress ratio (CSR) in Eq. (2) is
calculated according to Seed and Idriss (1985). In
the formulation of CSR in Eq. (2), the term rd,
which provides an approximate correction for
flexibility of the soil profile, are calculated using
the Liao et al. (1988) equation:
for z < 9.15m (3a)
for 9.15m < z < 23m (3b)
(4)
where Mw is the moment magnitude.
The normalized SPT N-values in the relationships
(1) and (2) were corrected for overburden pressure
CN, for the energy ratio of the hammer CE, for bore
hole diameter CB, for rod length CR and for
correction for samplers with or without liners CS as
shown below
(5)
Where N = measured standard penetration
resistance; CN = factor to normalize N to a
50
th
IG
C
50th
INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE
17th
– 19th
DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India
common reference effective over burden stress; CE
= correction for hammer energy ratio(ER); CR =
correction factor for rod length; CS = correction for
samplers with or without liners; CB = correction for
bore hole diameter. The equivalent clean sand
corrected N values i.e. the (N1)60cs values are
obtained according to Youd and Idriss (1997).
For evaluation of (N1)60cs, the following
equation was developed by I. M. Idriss with the
assistance of R. B. Seed (1985).
(6)
Where α and β = coefficients were determined
from the following relationships:
for FC (7a)
for (7b)
for FC (7c)
for FC (8a)
for (8b)
for FC (8c)
Equations (5) and (6) and (7a) to (8c) are
incorporated in Youd and Idriss (1997).
Soil study of Guwahati city
Guwahati city lies between latitude 26.1833o N and
longitude 91.733o E. The mighty river
Brahmaputra flows to its north, the south and the
eastern sides are surrounded by two rows of semi-
circular hillocks. A soil database from 200
boreholes was used to determine probability of
liquefaction for areas in Guwahati city. The soil
database was from a project funded by the
Directorate of Science and Technology, India for
Microzonation of Guwahati City. The project was
to study the soil properties of Guwahati City. For
this, bore holes of 30 m depth were made in 200
locations covering an area of 262 km2. The bore
hole location map along with the river
Brahmaputra in Guwahati city is shown in Fig. --.
Standard penetration test was done at every 1.5 m
interval to determine the N value of the soil with
depth. SPT-N value of the soils varied from 4 to >
50 (refusal). Undisturbed and disturbed soil
samples were collected to determine the
engineering properties of the soils in the
laboratory.
Guwahati soil mostly consists of alluvial deposits
with alternating layers of both fined grained and
coarse grained soils. There is a great deal of
variation in the thickness of these layers. The fine
grained fraction mostly consists of red, brown and
gray colored silty clay and clay of classification
CL, CI and CH. In some locations inorganic silt of
classification ML and MI and CL–ML and non
plastic inorganic silts were also encountered. The
coarse grained fraction is mostly of classification
SP, SW, SC, SM, SP-SC. Gravel deposits were
also encountered in certain bore holes. Some bore
holes were found to consist of fine grained deposits
of cohesive soils up to the full depth of 30 m. The
200 boring logs showed the water table to be
within 0–6 m meter of the ground surface. The
depth to ground water table in Guwahati city is
given in Sharma and Hazarika (2013).
Results and Discussion
The hazard associated with soil liquefaction during
earthquakes has been known to be encountered in
deposits consisting of fine to medium sands and
silty sand and sands containing low plasticity. Seed
et al. (1983) stated that based on both laboratories
testing and field performance, the great majority of
cohesive soils will not liquefy during earthquakes.
The soil layers that were identified for liquefaction
analysis are fine to medium sand and silty sands
that have classification of SP, SW, SC, SM, SP-
SC. Inorganic silt of classification ML, ML-CL
Binu Sharma, Monalisha Doley
and nonplastic inorganic silts were also analyses
for liquefaction susceptibility.
Guwahati city is situated along the river
Brahmaputra in the North Eastern region of India.
The Indian standard code of practice (IS 1893)
identified North East India including Assam as a
highly seismic zone by placing it in the highest
seismic zonal level i.e. zone V. The peak ground
acceleration specified for Guwahati city is 0.36 g.
This is for an 8.1 magnitude earthquake occurring
on a fault at an epicentral distance of 50 km from
Guwahati city. The probability of liquefaction is
determined for the bore holes susceptible to
liquefaction using the logistic regression equation
of Toprak et al. (1999) and the logistic regression
equation of Juang (2000, 2002). For both the
methods, (N1)60 is calculated using the corrected N-
value for overburden pressure using Eq. (3). The
equivalent clean sand corrected N values i.e. the
(N1)60csvalues were determined according to Eq.4.
The Cyclic stress ratio produced by an earthquake
is calculated according to Youd and Idriss (1997)
and Youd et al (2001).
For the analysis according to Toprak et
al.(1999), first the magnitude scaling factors were
calculated according to Idriss(1999). The cyclic
stress ratios were calculated according to Youd and
Idriss (1997). For the analysis of probability
according to Juang et al. (2002), the cyclic stress
ratios were calculated according to Seed and Idriss
(1985). Using Eq. (1) and (2) the probability of
liquefaction were finally calculated. The values
were then adjusted for earthquake magnitudes 6
and 8.1. Of the 200 sites, 49 sites in Guwahati have
been found to be susceptible to liquefaction
according to the Toprak et al. (1999) method of
probability analysis and 50 according to Juang et
al. (2002) method of analysis. The rest of the sites
where the bore holes are located are not susceptible
to liquefaction. Although the probabilities are
calculated for all the 200 bore holes, Figs. 1, 2 and
3 show the probability of liquefaction with depth of
only three bore holes for earthquake magnitude 6,
7.5 and 8.1 for the Toprak et al. method.
14
12
10
80 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 6
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 8.1
Fig.1 Probability with depth for borehole 5
(Toprak et al. (1999))
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
60 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 6
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 8.1
Fig.2 Probability with depth for borehole16
(Toprak et al. (1999))
14
12
10
8
6
0 50 100
Dep
th (m
)
Probability (%)
Toprak et al. (1999), M=6
Toprak et al. (1999), M=7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M=8.1
Fig.3 Probability with depth for bore hole8
(Toprak et al. (1999))
Similarly Figs. 4, 5 and 6 show the same according
to the Juang et al. (2002) method.
50
th
IG
C
50th
INDIAN GEOTECHNICAL CONFERENCE
17th
– 19th
DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India
14
12
10
0 50 100
Probability (%)D
epth
(m
)
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 6
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 7.5
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 8.1
Fig.4 Probability with depth for borehole 5
(Juang et al. (2002))
14
12
10
8
6
0 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M=6
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M=7.5
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M=8.1
Fig.5 Probability with depth for borehole 8
(Juang et al. (2002))
18
16
14
12
10
8
60 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 6
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 7.5
Juang et al. (2002), LR, M = 8.1
Fig.6 Probability with depth for borehole 16
(Juang et al. (2002))
A comparison of probability between the two
methods are shown in Figs 7and 8. It is seen that
Juang et al. (2002) is showing lower values of
probability compared to Toprak et al. (1999) for
the bore holes 5 and 8. For an earthquake
magnitude of 6 the variation is seen to be more
compared to an earthquake magnitude of 7.5 and
8.1. This observation is consistent in 30 bore holes
but only the degree of under estimation varies. In
the rest of the bore holes, Juang et al. (2002) is
showing higher values of probability compared to
Toprak et al.(1999). The percentage variation with
respect to Juang et al. (2002) for an earthquake
magnitude of 7.5, being 63.9% to -13.3%.
14
13
12
11
10
9
80 50 100
Dep
th (m
)
Probability (%)
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 6
Juang et al. (2002), M = 6
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 7.5
Juang et al. (2002), M = 7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 8.1
Juang et al. (2002), M = 8.1
Fig.7 Comparison of probability between Toprak
et al. (1999) and Juang et al. (2002) for borehole 5.
14
12
10
8
6
0 50 100
Probability (%)
Depth
(m
)
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 6
Juang et al. (2002), M = 6
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 7.5
Juang et al. (2002), M = 7.5
Toprak et al. (1999), M = 8.1
Juang et al. (2002), M = 8.1
Fig.8 Comparison of probability between Toprak
et al. (1999) and Juang et al. (2002) for borehole 8.
Binu Sharma, Monalisha Doley
The SPT- based liquefaction evaluation
probabilistic procedures have been found to yield
significantly different predictions. Comparisons of
the two logistic methods in the probabilistic
approach have shown a difference in the values of
probabilities in the same depth. However it is seen
that the probabilities obtained from logistic
regression are influenced by the form of the
function adopted for the regression, and by the data
used in the regression. The comparison of the
probabilities of liquefaction obtained from
regression equations which are developed using
different data sets and/or different forms of logistic
function is not perfect.
Fig. 9 shows the probabilistic liquefaction
potential map of Guwahati city for an earthquake
magnitude of 7.5 according to Juang et al. (2002).
Fig.9 Probabilistic liquefaction potential map of
Guwahati city
The map shows zones of different levels of risk of
liquefaction. It is observed from the map that the
southern bank of river Brahmaputra with the areas
of Palashbari, Azara, Jhalukbari, Pandu,
Bharalumukh and Uzanbazar, some areas in
G.S.Road, Gorchuk area and areas near Chandmari
have probabilities of liquefaction greater than 50%.
Some areas in the northern bank of the city are also
susceptible to liquefaction.
CONCLUSIONS
Liquefaction potential of soil sites susceptible to
liquefaction have been determined using two SPT
based probabilistic approach. One is according to
the logistic regression approach of Toprak et al.
(1999) and the other is also a logistic regression
approach by Juang et a. (2002). Comparisons of the
two logistic methods in the probabilistic approach
have shown a difference in the values of
probabilities in the same depth. GIS based
probabilistic liquefaction map of Guwahati city
shows that the southern bank of river Brahmaputra
with the areas of Palashbari, Azara, Jhalukbari,
Pandu, Bharalumukh and Uzanbazar, some areas in
G.S.Road, Gorchuk area and areas near Chandmari
have probabilities of liquefaction greater than 50%.
Some areas in the northern bank of the city is also
susceptible to liquefaction.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Geotechnical data of the 200 boreholes were
taken from a project work given to Assam
Engineering College, titled ‘‘Liquefaction potential
determination of Guwahati city’’ funded by The
Directorate of Science and Technology, India for
Microzonation of Guwahati city. We acknowledge
the help and assistance given by DST, India for the
study.
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17th
– 19th
DECEMBER 2015, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Venue: College of Engineering (Estd. 1854), Pune, India
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