indian economy 2011
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Home > VMW Research > Indian Economy 2011: Economic Expansion Would Be Fragile But It
Is Expected That Growth Would Be Inclusive & Sustainable.
Friday, 22 October, 2010 VMW Blog! Leave a comment Go to comments
Global economies are broadening from the economic downturn since year 2009 and still
continues, although the growth is categorically fragile and needs to be proctor by the government
until the shift in Business Cycle. Withal, VMW sees a lame foreign policy towards Pakistan would be a troublesome for India in the long run.
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Important: VMW Research Team is considering to superannuate this research due to
non-relevance of the facts in the current economic context. Please peruse our latest research
on the global economy.
Key Stats for India
Overspending : 2.91%
Inflation : 8.90%
Trade Deficit : $23.1 billion
Industrial Production : 13.76%
Equity Returns (YTD) : 16.85%
Read the latest VMW-Sift Research on India’s Economic Outlook.
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Major Forewarn
To ensure basic education to all. Education is still a major challenge and India should
expand their budget towards the education and to make sure to provide at least basic
education (high school) to all. VMW believes, expansion of education budget is extremely
important for India to sustain at a level of higher economic growth and to supply quality
human resource for the next generation.
Heavy investments in Social Infrastructure. Since Indian government has already
committed to invest up to $1 trillion in infrastructure, however the pace of development is
very slow in proportion to the economic growth. Asia’s third largest economy is attracting
billions of dollars in terms of portfolio investments and foreign direct investments
and transforming itself as a best investment and market destination for the investors but to
keep up the momentum, infrastructure development needs to step up moderately.
Invest in Entrepreneurism: Make India as a source of new innovation to lead the next
generation. Indian government should start focus on the entrepreneurism to give people a
platform to exhibit their bright ideas which enables to transform their ideas into the
potential corporation.
Good times are, seemingly, ahead with the sustainable
growth amid persisting higher inflation, appreciation of currency against the US Dollar,
trade gap and ameliorating tax policy. On the above key stats, overspending or fiscal deficit for
the fiscal year 2010-11 at 2.91 per cent of the total GDP till Jun, 2010 and VMW estimated total
fiscal deficit at 3.9 per cent. It is indeed lower than the budgeted estimates - largely supported by
the auction of 3rd generation mobile technology spectrum, which yields the Indian Government
about $22 billion. Apparently, fiscal deficit (was a preliminary problem) is not a cause of concern
since the government is sitting on an ample amount of cash and could expand their spending on a
much-needed social infrastructure such as Unique Identification or UID system for the Indian
citizens to get them eligible for the several government schemes (prevailingly benefited for the
lower-income group people). Most importantly, however, on the other side, India’s geo-political
relations would be nagger, which the VMW is seriously cogitating and seeing it as one of the
major challenge for India going forward. Pakistan, indubitably, is the major challenge for India
to handle the fragile relations with the western border sharing country. Since 2008 Mumbai
Attacks, relations between both countries has strained and needs an urgent resolution to abate the
rising threat of unamicable situation between the nuclear holders and it could disrupt the trade as
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well as diplomatic relations. India as a “state” is a competitive economy and a representative
political system. The recent most sensitive judgment on Ayodhya‘s Disputed Land lawsuit filed
by the several parties for the title of land ownership has proved India’s efficiency towards the
system of justice, socio-economic, sustainable security, stability in politics via quality
leadership and signaling further strong civilization in the country, which is extremely important
for an economy which is attracting investments round the world.
Debate Over Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2)
Economic challenges for the United States might be prodigious, however the recent policies
should not be a solution for the US to re-emerge from the painful unemployment situation in the
country. The overstated tone of the US President in the past few months have sparked a thought
of “Protectionism“. US, which is always known for its dynamic economy, biggest corporations
and avant-garde entrepreneurs is now becomes a propagandist towards the protectionism. Indeed,
the United States is a pillar of the global economy but there is an urgent need of consistentgovernment policies to promote trade, tax holiday to the smaller companies to improve
employment opportunity and pacified business financing for smoother function of business. For
that purpose, central bank’s involvement in every government policy is desperately needed. In
India, central bank, Reserve Bank of India have revised interest rates to curb rising inflation but
the inflation is not a concern for the industrialized economies and there is an urgent need of
expansion of money supply since there is no room for further rate cut as the central banks
running on the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).
The recent controversial move by the US Central Bank, Federal Reserve to expand the country’s
money supply by purchasing treasury bonds worth $600 billion have sparked the debate andfacing dissent from the emerging nations like China, Brazil and the advanced nations like France
and Germany, however the Fed’s move is absolutely best in the US’ interest and it should be keep
in mind that the stability in the US economy is absolutely necessary for the global economic
growth. Although, it might be a problem for the emerging nations since they’re worrying about
their economy being flooded with the fresh hot money, however this could be a solution for a
continous stable recovery. Japan, the world’s third largest economy, which is fighting against the
sharp rise in Yen (ISO 4217 Code: JPY) and Deflation, its central bank, Bank of Japan too has
cut rates to around zero. Bank of Japan also committed to buy $60 billion worth of Japanese
securities, which is clearly giving the signal of infusion of fresh money into the system, which isa bolster for the Japan’s ailing economy.
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Data Source: VMW Analytic Services (©
2011. VMW. See copyright notice)
India Economy 2011 Prospect With Global Economy In Contrast!
India has never faced as worst situation as the western economies have faced. It was just an
experience of slower export, bad liquidity condition which hampered the developing economy to
keep on the spectacular growth. Now, Indian economy is prospering with its own sturdy domestic
demand amid high level of poverty. Corruption is still a matter of concern and mismanagement at
the organization is also a crucial part which is impacting the sustained economic growth. India’s
accounts reporting system is letting tens of thousands of companies evading tax. According to the
VMW Research, India’s tax department is losing almost $11 billion in terms of tax revenue
every year and unorganized sector is the major contributor to the tax evasion. Despite of recent
developments in the last 15 years, when the Indian taxation system has undergone tremendous
reforms, but lack of transparency in the tax policy is still leading to the higher loss of tax
revenue, which should be meliorate with the moderate tax policies. The recent debate over the
implementation of Direct Tax Code or DTC from FY2012-13 would improve the tax laws and
simplifies it further. India still has a long way to bring taxation reforms in order to prop-up tax
revenue to cut the fiscal deficit because, year 2010 cannot be repeated again and again, where the
government was able to raise hunky amount of cash through the sale of 3rd generation
mobile technology to the mobile operators and most importantly, India was able to cut its
overspending (fiscal deficit).
Liquidity Update: Stock of Money, Inflation and Overnight Lending Rates. India needs
long term foreign investment inflows.
Inflation in India is one of the principal subject for the policy makers. Even inflation at eight per
cent – RBI is at sixes and sevens to fix the price crisis amid disquietude for the stable and target
of double-digit growth rate for the economy. While the food price inflation is over 16 per cent
and the wholesale price inflation is over eight per cent, it makes a fuss since both benchmarks are
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passe and needs to be reconstructed or revamped with newer commodities. Government officials
says, food prices will come down in the next few months, but is there any hope for the same?
Food prices are rising, thanks to the watchword of fastest growing economy, since the domestic
demand is rising without pause (and would continue to rise) and at the same time, supply would
not be able to conform to the rising demand. The rise in food prices are realistic and could not
seem to be pacify in the next few months, however the good monsoon this year might be a
solution for the rising food prices, though the RBI’s monetary policy has different facet. RBI is
fixing the inflation problem by tightening the money supply and demand side problem (food
price inflation index) cannot be fixed straightaway. Consequently, going forward, inflation would
continue to be problematic for the central bank as it is not expected that the inflation would come
down to below five per cent in the next couple of months due to volatility in commodity prices
and strong local demand. RBI’s policy stance would be inflation hawk but it is not certainly
pointing towards the consistent rise in interest rates. There are other several measures, which are
available with the central bank and it is expected that the RBI would target the foreign inflows to
certain extent to contain the swift appreciation in Indian Rupee (ISO 4217 Code: INR) or
sell enormous amount of Indian currency to impede further wild appreciation against the US
Dollar (ISO 4217 Code: USD).
On the monetary situation, RBI, since Oct-2009, revising interest rates to ensure that the excess
liquidity in the market would not be use in a risky assets since the economic recovery is too
fragile. RBI has revised its policy rates by more than 300 bps and room for further tightening is
still available with the RBI. It is now clearly visible that the commercial banks have started
borrowing from the RBI’s repo window and many of them have revised their lending rates and
deposit rates to keep up their capital adequacy ratio and sufficient liquidity for a proper credit
growth for the sustainable economic growth.
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Data Source & Projection:
VMW Analytic Services (©2011. VMW. See Copyright Notice)
Indian Economy so far has vastly exceeded expectations. Perhaps, the shining growth would
continue. apparently, VMW has revised the GDP growth estimates at 10 per cent for the fiscal
year 2012 and maintaining this growth rate. India could see the double-digit growth rate (refer to
the above figure of GDP over the past 60 years) backed by the immense foreign inflows,
unabating rising domestic demand, boosting agricultural output, government’s bolster for the
infrastructure development will spur the economic growth and employment opportunities furtherfor the next five years and it is certain that India would grow at double-digit growth rate. For this
fiscal year 2010-11, according to the government authorities, Indian economy is expected to
grow at 8.5 per cent and 9 per cent for the next fiscal. On the other side, Current Account of the
Balance of Payment (BoP) is expected to be at -2.7 per cent of the total GDP for this fiscal and
to expand further by 0.2 per cent to -2.9 per cent for fiscal 2011-12. India’s merchandise trade
deficit would hard hit due to local currency appreciation, anticipation of higher crude imports
and non-crude oil imports and VMW expects, Rupee will appreciate to INR42 for a US Dollar. In
this situation, RBI would intervene into the foreign exchange market (since INR is a managed
float type of currency) to curb appreciation and maintain uniformity.
Since the Agriculture & Allied sector is one of the most significant part of the Indian Economy,
dependency on monsoon is also higher. This year had a better than anticipated rainfall in the
prominent parts of the country and kharif crop will see a strong output this year along with the
signification availability of resources for the rabi crops, which will improve the farm sector
growth by at least 4 per cent and it will improve the overall economic outlook for the next fiscal
too. On the country’s industrial growth, service export, which accounts for 5.8 per cent of the
India’s GDP, will continue to be sluggish since the major export customers of the Indian IT
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Services are the United States and Western Europe, which are still fighting for the “sustainable
foundation” of economy. Mining sector on the other side has a robust growth in the past few
quarters and still progressing with higher growth prospect due to oil & gas activity, while growth
registered by the manufacturing sector largely driven by the domestic demand.
Capital Inflows, Financial Market & Overall Economic Outlook
2010 2011 2012
Real GDP
Growth9.70% 8.40% 10%
Consumer
Prices8.60% 5.70% 5.50%
Current
Account-3.1% -3.1% -2.3%
So far, year 2010 has attracted over $21 billion in terms of Portfolio Investments in the Indian
equity markets and over $15 billion have been raised through the initial public offerings. Since
the foreign investors pouring billions of dollars in emerging markets to earn good amount returns
over their investments. Right now, equity is one of the most favorable investment option, since it
is giving the handsome returns in a short span of time. As the US central bank, Federal Reserve is
planning to buy $500 billion worth of bonds, this would further expand the kitty of the investors,
which will come into the capital market. Furthermore, the corporate earnings, more or less,are better than expectations and supporting the anticipated rally in the equity markets. India will
see the further inbound foreign direct investments – would able to attract over $90 billion of
capital inflows, which will be use to finance to abate the current account deficit to certain extent,
thus India has no, but at least slight, problem as far as the macro economy is concerned. The
major tussle is inflationary pressure on the Indian economy, which is a rowdy challenge and
currently reading at two times of the comfort levels (set by RBI). VMW expects, that the
inflation would continue to put RBI on its toe and further tightening of liquidity is expected over
the next couple of quarters. More importantly, going forward, RBI would consider to curb
foreign inflows into the country to prevent heating-up of the economy, since India is the bestinvestment option from the global investments perspective.
Per the observation, global economy would continue to recover, though it would be flimsy,
however the world economies are set to see a major change in business cycle from the year 2012
and global economies would expand at a rapid pace with strong fundamentals framed by the
government authorities and revamped strong financial system.
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Comments (11) Trackbacks (2) Leave a comment Trackback
Lauran Salters
Tuesday, 25 October, 2011 at 17:49 | #1
Reply | Quote
I love your Blog, it’s nice when you can tell somebody actuallly puts effort into a blog, and
gives the blogs value.
1.
savino
Tuesday, 25 October, 2011 at 07:31 | #2
Reply | Quote
Hi Fantastic post here. I have been hunting more info about this. Pleased I ran across this. I
will bookmark it right now.
2.
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Hindustani
Friday, 21 October, 2011 at 16:56 | #3
Reply | Quote
What we are seeing today in India is only an organic growth. Also the growth we have seen
is not going to be there in year 2011 and 2012. India even today has poor infrastructure.Though there has been large scale funds being allocated for development we have to check
if this is really reaching the masses. Quality of education need to be improved in Govt
Schools, Roads connecting the highways in the state levels need to done up properly.
Government hospitals have to have good facility and clean envornment. Public distribution
system should be fool proof, Govt has to provide electronic ration card to people who are
enjoying free or discount food scheme, so that it can be confirmed that it is reaching the
right person and not sold in grey market. Similarly land refoms have to be done, today real
estate mafia has taken over the land and a normal man including a middle class a home has
become unafordable. Govt should give better income tax releif to salaried class including
subsidsed housing loan. Economic development should reach every sector and every
individual and not limited. India has a long way to go. What we read in Media is just a hype
and Iam sure things are not as good as we read or predict. Jai Hind
3.
KHR
Saturday, 12 November, 2011 at 23:09 | #4
Reply | Quote
I just read your comment on the above topic. I feel you are very clear about Indianeconomy and feel it has not developed up to the mark and it can still be developed.
Ramesh Kumar Nanjundaiya
Thursday, 20 October, 2011 at 19:16 | #5
Reply | Quote
YET ANOTHER VIEW – as recently appeared in the Economist London –
One-track bindOct 8th 2011 4:45 GMT
What is the current state of the Indian Economy – The Indian Paradox 2011
QUOTE
India’s economic growth rate in the past decade has been nothing short of spectacular. With
its GDP growth around 7 to 9 percent per year, India is the second-fastest-growing large
economy in the world. However, the country’s manufacturing sector accounts for a dismal
17 percent of its employment opportunities, as compared to 60 percent in agriculture and 23
percent in services.[1]This summer, the World Bank’s Indian Visiting Scholars Program*
4.
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invited two leading academics from Harvard University to visit India and to articulate
potential pathways to sustain the country’s growth trajectory. These 2 scholars are Ricardo
Hausmann, Professor of Economic Development at the John F. Kennedy School of
Government and Director of Harvard’s Center of International Development and Dani
Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at the Kennedy School. While there,
they interacted with the private sector and key policymakers, including senior officials of
the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, the Planning Commission, and the
Ministry of Finance. Hausmann argues that diversification in the economic structure, and
not necessarily specialization, may be a crucial factor for accelerating growth in India.
UNQUOTE
My response
What is the current state of the Indian Economy and where is it headed – While I fully
understand and appreciate Hausmann’s views that diversification in the economic structure,
and not necessarily specialization, may be a crucial factor for accelerating growth in India,
his observation that rich economies produce many products whereas developing economies
produce few products that are also made in rich economies calls for a discussion. It is true,
that this relationship exists not only between countries, but also between cities within acountry. What is therefore the secret of India’s economic growth rate in the past decade
which has been nothing short of spectacular? With its GDP growth around 7 to 9 percent
per year, India is the second-fastest-growing large economy in the world. Who is the driver
for this. Before we answer this, one needs to revisit the American Economic Historian
W.W. Rostow who in the sixties had suggested that countries passed through 5 stages of
economic development as Traditional Society, Transitional Stage, Take-off, Drive to
Maturity and High Mass Consumption., Would this today apply to India. Many
development economists argue that Rostows’s model was developed with Western cultures
in mind and not applicable to developing countries as India as it is generalised and policymakers are unable to identify the various stages as they seem to overlap each other. It
depends how you look at it. It is a growth model and we should examine if there is actual
all round development to witness the 9% GDP growth. One of the contributors for this is
the growing “Indian Middle Class”. While the reasons are varied, but one which has really
propelled up the Indian economy ( I would say, in the last 6 years) is the growing buying
power of people in the so called “Middle Income Group” which in the case of India, per my
estimation, represents almost 300 million people. This is a huge market to cater to and is
growing. This group is the one which is pushing demand locally and thus giving a boast to
the economy. It is a life cycle change in the population group. This is the group which isspending on all goods and related services. Because of such a growth demand for
goods/services, banks will certainly witness increase in their lending in the next couple of
years. This fuels continuous economic growth (notwithstanding inflation) The rosy side is
that when the economy grows, the equity markets become much more active and again adds
for the economy growth with more people coming into the “Middle Income Group of
People” or the people with buying power or cash to spend. Thus going back to W.W.
Rostow, we are somewhere in between stage 3 and 4. But at this stage, one needs to be very
careful. While India seems to be embarking on a high-growth strategy today, it must guard
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and overcome some global trends which include global warming, the falling relative price
of manufactured goods and rising relative price of commodities, including energy; swelling
discontent with globalization in advanced and some developing economies, the various
ongoing “scams” which could eat upto 2% of the GDP, the growing “young population”
which should not become a struggle (almost 400 million in the age group of 15 to 30 years)
to cope with and the ongoing mismatch between global problems—in economics, health,
climate change, and other areas—and weakly coordinated international responses.
Notwithstanding the challenges, the support of the global economy remains central for the
current Indian growth story or as they call it the – The India Paradox: Promoting
Competitive Industries in a High-Growth Country.
RAMESH KUMAR NANJUNDAIYA
vijay vikram
Sunday, 9 October, 2011 at 09:32 | #6
Reply | Quote
vmw,endeavour to highlight current situations of, india’s as wellas world economy chaoses,
about inflation,fiscal deficit and world global economy,is really,appreciating fragile
situation need, preudent hobnobby, via global developing and developed nation to amicate
these aggravate crisis……..
5.
Vivek Verma
Saturday, 8 October, 2011 at 03:12 | #7
Reply | Quote
This projection is just an over anticipation . INDIA cannot shield itself from current
headwinds going strong in global economy. Greek debt crises has reached to a level where
default seems unavoidable. Euro zone is reeling heavily under Greek debt crises and this is
getting contagious, soverign Debt crises is looming largely over Spain, Ireland, Portugal
and Italy. US economy is succumbing to fiscal profligacy, political inertia, a lack of
leadership, & economic incompetence, troubling world economy including India. Chinese
economy has shown signs of slowdown and inflationary pressures are too high in India.
Germany has saved Greece temporarily, but they don’t have enough back to save Italy andby 2014 world will be under greatest ever economic depression becuase Italy is going to be
the next biggest casuality of euro debt crises. Considering global economic scenario Indian
economy will grow at 6-7% in next five years. Growth will not be inclusive but rather
oligarchic limited only to upper middle class. Unless and until India will not address its
systemic problems in governance like corruption and tax evasion growth will be below
anticipated mark. Domestic consumption will get suffocated due to high capital cost with
more tightening of monetary policies and high interest rates by RBI. India should increase
tax on riches because emerging country can’t afford high budget deficits with high inflation.
6.
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Time ahead us full of uncertainty as situation at ground level is not good, India is taking 2
steps forward and one and half step backward. Global financial institutions and biggest
global economise like Italy, Spain and Greece which so far are considered as too big to fail
are almost on the brink of collapse. India is not immune to global economic headwinds
which are getting stronger and stronger with each passing day. By 2014 another global
depression is certain and 6-7 percent growth for India should and must hold optimism but
India will not be able to drag all of its people from poverty no less than 2040.
rahul
Thursday, 11 August, 2011 at 17:21 | #8
Reply | Quote
May be yes, Indian economy is on the right path. Government really need to take concrete
steps towards the reforms in our country so that our economy can grow at the projected
pace. Indian economy is not so feeble, that it will stumble based on the crisis of some other
economy. It has withstood the test of time in the toughest recessions and hence is strongenough not to slide down..discuss more on this click here – http://sawaal.ibibo.com/politics
/you-think-indian-economy-on-right-path-1691389.html
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7.
vijaiyesh babuWednesday, 10 August, 2011 at 19:57 | #9
Reply | Quote
your projections are good. but all your blabbering about fiscal policy, GDP, Liquidity all
will be a false damn sure second recession waves gonna hit India soon.
If my prophecy is true , recession is already started!
8.
ShyamSunday, 31 July, 2011 at 18:49 | #10
Reply | Quote
true… not sure who said this, but it still rings true: I used to look down on the world for
being corrupt, but now I adore it for the utter magnificence of that corruption.
9.
samiran das10.
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Friday, 3 June, 2011 at 01:43 | #11
Reply | Quote
The indian economical growth can be raised more if we can bring some changes in the
system . i have an little idea about that change of system .
Sunday, 31 October, 2010 at 08:17 | #1
So, What Is The Forex Market? | World Money
1.
Sunday, 31 July, 2011 at 23:14 | #2
The BANK PO aspirants thread 2011 part -1 – Page 652 – PaGaLGuY.com – The
Everything of MBA in India and Abroad, CAT 2011, GMAT, XAT, MAT
2.
India’s Monetary Policy Update: The Impact of Monetary Tightening. Banks Are Under
Significant Liquidity Pressure. RBI Revised Repo Rate And Reverse Repo Rate To Contain
Inflation. Inflation Is A Big Disquiet For The Central Bank.
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Inflation rate in Oct 2011 (Based on Wholesale Price Index) jumped to 9.73 percent in comparingto 9.72 percent on a month over month basis (Sep 2011). Please Note: Inflation rate updates
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India's Foreign Reserves $4.26 billion at $304.37 billion for the week ended 25th Nov, 2011
vs. $308.62 billion week over week. It does seem that the RBI has supported the Indian currency
by purchasing the Rupee. Please Note: India's Foreign Reserves update every Friday evening and
last updated on 5th Dec, 2011.
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