india hopes high for next elections on 17th july, 2017… · india (rbi). on the commodity market...

WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC

(For private circulation only)

INDIA HOPES HIGH FOR NEXTPRESIDENT OF INDIA ELECTIONS ON 17TH JULY, 2017

2017: Issue 588, Week: 17th - 20th July

Bra

nd s

mc

412

Broking - Equity, Commodity & Currency | Wealth Management | Insurance Broking |

Real Estate Advisory | Mortgage Advisory | Distribution of IPOs, Mutual Funds, FDs & Bonds |

Investment Banking | NBFC Financing | AIF-II | PMS | Institutional Broking |Clearing Services |

NRI & FPI Services | Research

Call Toll-Free

1800 11 0909

NSE INB/INF/INE 230771431, BSE INB/INF 011343937, MSEI INB/INF 260771432 INE 260771431, CDSL/NSDL-IN-DP-130-2015 (SMC Global Securities Ltd.), NCDEX/MCX (8200)/NMCE/ICEX-INZ000035839 (SMC Comtrade Ltd.), PMS INP000003435 (SMC Investments and Advisors Ltd.) IRDAI Regi: No: DB 272/04 License No. 289, Valid upto 27/01/2020 (SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.), Merchant Banker INM000011427 (SMC Capitals Ltd.)

SMC Global Securities Ltd., CIN No.: L74899DL1994PLC063609 | SMC Comtrade Ltd., CIN : U67120DL1997PLC188881 | REGISTERED OFFICE: 11/6-B, Shanti

Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi - 110005, Tel +91-11-30111000 | Email us at: [email protected]

DELHI | MUMBAI | KOLKATA | AHMEDABAD | CHENNAI | BENGALURU | DUBAI | NEW YORK | ATLANTA | ORLANDO

Follow us on

employees

2,850+Workforce of

2,500+Large network of

sub-brokers & authorised persons

cities across India,

UAE & USA

500+ Covers

unique clients

18,00,000+Serving over

as on 31st March, 2017

Awarded by:

PROPERTY CONSULTANT OF THE YEAR - RESIDENTIAL

BEST EQUITY BROKINGHOUSE-DERIVATIVE

SEGMENT

INDIA'S BESTMARKET ANALYST

(COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL)

Awarded by:

AWARDEDTHE BESTTIME ANDAGAIN.

www.smcindiaonline.com

triverse

From The Desk Of Editor

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC has applied with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

tock markets globally made fresh highs, as investors lapped up equities after U.S.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the Fed won't rush to Stighten monetary policy as inflation remains persistently below target. Also hopes of

a strong earnings season lifted the sentiments of the investors. The recent data from US

showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for the first time

in a month and producer prices unexpectedly rose in June. Reflecting global demand, Chinese

exports rose 17.3 percent in the month of June and Imports rose at a pace of 23.1 percent.

Chinese authorities will release second quarter GDP numbers next week on 17th July.

Back at home, breaking boundaries, both Sensex and Nifty moved higher as inflation hit a

record low, offering the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) leeway for a policy rate cut. Also the

positive global cues post dovish statement from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on

further rate hike supported the bulls. However, some nervousness also played on market

participants' minds following muted earnings posted by the country's largest software

exporter TCS. India's retail inflation fell to a new low in June as consumer prices rose 1.53

percent in June, compared to last year, slower than the 2.18 percent increase seen in May.

At below 2 percent, inflation has now fallen below the lower bound of the RBI's flexible

inflation target of 4 percent (+/- 2 percent). With weak inflation and Industrial growth that

came a rate of 1.7 percent for the month of May compared to 2.8 percent recorded in the

prior month, expectations of further cut in interest rates have risen by the Reserve bank of

India (RBI).

On the commodity market front, CRB index saw five months continuous decline and July is

already trading in negative zone and this is a concern for the market. However, in the last

week market saw some recovery owing to some upside in bullion, energy pack and some

industrial commodities, but recovery was marginal. Surging global stock markets is

dampening the safe haven demand of gold. Gold can face resistance near $1250 in COMEX

and 28600 in MCX while it has support near $1180 in COMEX and $27000 in MCX. Overall

crude oil can trade in the range of 2700-3100 in MCX. GDP of China, CPI of Newzeland, ECB

Bank Lending Survey, CPI of UK, Euro-Zone ZEW Survey, German ZEW Survey, BOJ Outlook

Report, BOJ Policy Balance Rate, Unemployment Rate of Australia, ECB Rate Decision, ECB

Asset Purchase Target, CPI of Canada etc are data and events, which are schedule this

week, hence it is advised to keep an eye on these triggers while trading in commodities.

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

FD Monitor 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.

REGISTERED OFFICES:

11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.

Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365

MUMBAI OFFICE:

Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor ,

Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway,

Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063

Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697

KOLKATA OFFICE:

18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001

Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004

AHMEDABAD OFFICE :

10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,

C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat

Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03

CHENNAI OFFICE:

Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,

Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.

Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111

SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:

206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,

Secunderabad - 500003

Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536

DUBAI OFFICE:

2404, 1 Lake Plaza Tower, Cluster T, Jumeriah Lake Towers,

PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE

Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781

Email ID : [email protected]

[email protected]

NEW YORK OFFICE:

Alliance Bernstein Building

1345 Avenue of the Americas

Second Floor, New York, NY 10105

Phone: (212) 878-3684

Toll-Free: (855) 589-1915

Fax: (866) 852-4236

Printed and Published on behalf of

Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address

11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005

Website: www.smcindiaonline.com

Investor Grievance : [email protected]

Printed at: S&S MARKETING102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)

Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: [email protected]

DERIVATIVES

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)

The Market Undertone remained bullish with support of consistent FII buying and short covering. Nifty is trading near 9900 level and all the major sectors like

Banks, Metals, Auto & reality are supporting the market trend. Sector rotation is likely to continue further. Just after start of July series we have seen put writers

aggressively selling ATM puts and call writers unwinding short call positions. Put OI concentration has shifted towards 9700 from 9500 after start of July series in

recent trading sessions. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was down and closed at 9.46% while that for put options closed at 9.32%. The Nifty VIX for the week

closed at 11.25% and is expected to remain sideways. Overall market's cost-of-carry is on the lower side. Among Nifty Call options, the 10000-strike call has the

highest open interest of 45 lakh shares followed by the 9900-strike call which have OI of over 44 lakh shares. On put side, 9700-strike put has the highest open

interest of over 60 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.57 from 1.29, which indicates OTM put writing. In the July

option contracts we are seeing options open interests building up in 10000 calls and 9700 puts, which indicates range of 9700-10000 this expiry. On the technical

front 9800-9840 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 9950-9980.

In lakhs

In 10000 In 10000

CESC (JUL FUTURE)

Buy: Around `896

Target: `915

Stop loss: `886

ONGC

BUY JUL 160. PUT 4.00SELL JUL 155. PUT 2.00

Lot size: 3750BEP: 158.00

Max. Profit: 11250.00 (3.00*3750)Max. Loss: 7500.00 (2.00*3750)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURE

JUSTDIAL

BUY JUL 350. PUT 7.70SELL JUL 340. PUT 5.00



DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

INDIANB (JUL FUTURE )

Buy: Above `318

Target: `328

Stop loss: `313

BULLISH STRATEGY

ACC

BUY JUL 1780. CALL 27.50SELL JUL 1800. CALL 21.80



ICIL (JUL FUTURE)

Sell: Below `162

Target: `157

Stop loss: `165

BEARISH STRATEGY

Call Put

20

.27

10

.32

3.6

0

5.1

7

6.3

3

13

.89 19

.18

22

.42

36

.38

39

.28 44

.47

4.2

8

27

.92

26

.62 3

3.5

9

47

.66

51

.58

63

.42

62

.23

51

.74

21

.34

13

.60

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

8000 9000 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000

Call Put

-0.4

5

-0.7

2

-0.8

4

-1.7

2

-3.3

8

-8.5

5

-12

.38

-18

.36

-2.1

6

17

.49

6.4

7

-0.5

0

-2.2

5

-0.7

4

-12

.68

-10

.93

-11

.62

6.3

8

42

.27

43

.75

18

.93

-0.7

7

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

8000 9000 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000

Call Put

9.4

1

1.2

0

5.2

8

2.3

3 11

.24

46

.78

6.8

8

7.0

7

57

.03 7

4.3

0

11

.16

6.7

8 19

.34

31

.62

58

.56

15

8.1

4

39

.58

6.0

9

5.5

2 14

.00

2.0

6

1.8

2

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500 23700 23800 24000 24500 25000

Call Put

-0.3

7

-0.0

3

-0.1

2

-0.7

8

-2.7

7

-11

.54

0.2

5

1.4

9 10

.93

56

.45

2.7

7

-1.0

8

0.3

8

-45

.45

-38

.51

40

.60

11

.26

4.6

2

5.0

8

7.0

4

-0.2

2

-0.0

4

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500 23700 23800 24000 24500 25000

8

In lakhs

9

DERIVATIVES

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

13-Jul 12-Jul 11-Jul 10-Jul 07-Jul

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM -4.20 6.25 1.20 5.90 1.70

COST OF CARRY% 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.73

PCR(OI) 1.57 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.29

PCR(VOL) 1.31 1.34 1.18 1.19 1.13

A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 2.27 3.25 0.96 9.20 0.61

A/D RATIO (ALL FO STOCK)* 1.33 4.21 0.42 5.97 0.77

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 9.46 9.27 9.18 9.29 9.88

VIX 11.25 11.05 10.89 10.91 10.91

HISTORY. VOLATILITY 9.58 9.32 9.45 9.74 8.45

*All Future Stock

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

#All Future Stock

Top 10 short build upTop long build up

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

CHENNPETRO 393.85 8.38% 813000 103.00%

MGL 998.50 2.19% 733200 65.58%

MRPL 124.85 2.84% 8275500 49.15%

CHOLAFIN 1170.50 2.89% 629500 37.45%

NIITTECH 568.30 2.72% 951000 35.76%

GODFRYPHLP 1279.65 1.98% 839500 25.02%

UJJIVAN 351.55 9.76% 8208000 22.91%

NATIONALUM 72.95 7.44% 7872000 22.24%

PTC 113.05 12.10% 13832000 13.30%

INDUSINDBK 1575.75 3.47% 5343000 12.59%

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

AJANTPHARM 1480.80 -4.72% 616800 65.81%

REPCOHOME 800.55 -1.33% 374500 34.09%

COLPAL 1079.30 -1.09% 1626800 27.13%

SRTRANSFIN 1030.00 -5.98% 5604000 22.83%

NESTLEIND 6809.80 -1.23% 98400 18.13%

APOLLOTYRE 252.65 -2.51% 15612000 14.83%

GMRINFRA 18.05 -6.96% 313110000 12.46%

MANAPPURAM 98.85 -3.18% 14856000 10.78%

CANFINHOME 3219.10 -1.10% 529250 9.63%

IDFC 56.40 -5.76% 97759200 9.31%

In Cr. In Cr.

13-Jul 12-Jul 11-Jul 10-Jul 07-Jul

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM -9.25 25.80 32.75 -12.00 9.80

COST OF CARRY% 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.73

PCR(OI) 1.39 1.76 1.63 1.81 1.91

PCR(VOL) 1.11 1.73 1.29 1.47 1.96

A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 4.00 5.00 0.09 5.00 2.00

#A/D RATIO 1.22 10.00 0.05 10.00 0.91

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 11.75 11.52 11.27 11.96 12.41

VIX 11.25 11.05 10.89 10.91 10.91

HISTORY. VOLATILITY 11.96 11.70 11.85 12.08 11.57

- 55

1

- 53

3

14

7

16

4

- 54

4

- 76

1

- 10

00

94

-12

86

- 62

0

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

30-Jun 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul

23

87

13

41

70

9

14

22 1

96

5

- 11

37

51

20

85

- 11

85

29

56

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

30-Jun 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul

Mr. Anurag Bansal (Director, SMC Global Securities Ltd.) sharing his views during SME Activator Summit organized

by The Economic Times on 29th June 2017 at Hotel Trident, BKC, Mumbai.

To register, visit www.smcphc.in

Give us a missed call

9560 116 116

Broking - Equity, Commodity & Currency | Wealth Management | Insurance Broking | Real Estate Advisory | Mortgage Advisory |

Distribution of IPOs, Mutual Funds, FDs & Bonds | Investment Banking | NBFC Financing | AIF-II | PMS | Institutional Broking |

Clearing Services | NRI & FPI Services | Research

www.smcphc.in

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related document carefully before investing • Insurance is the subject matter of solicitation • All insurance products sold through SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt.

Ltd. • Investment Banking Services provided by SMC Capitals Ltd. • Equity PMS and Wealth management services provided by SMC Investments & Advisors Ltd. • IPOs and Mutual Funds distribution services are provided by SMC

Global Securities Ltd. only as a distributor. • Financing Services provided by Moneywise Financial Services Pvt Ltd. • Commodity broking services provided by SMC Comtrade Ltd. • Real Estate Advisory services are offered through

SMC Real Estate Advisors Pvt. Ltd. • The portfolio management service is not being provided for commodity trading.

NSE INB/INF/INE 230771431, BSE INB/INF 011343937, MSEI INB/INF 260771432 INE 260771431, CDSL/NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-130-2015 (SMC Global Securities Ltd.), NCDEX/MCX (8200)/NMCE/ICEX-INZ000035839 (SMC Comtrade Ltd.), PMS INP000003435 (SMC Investments and Advisors Ltd.) IRDAI Regi. No: DB 272/04 License No. 289, Valid upto 27/01/2020 (SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.), Merchant Banker INM000011427 (SMC Capitals Ltd.)

DELHI | MUMBAI | KOLKATA | AHMEDABAD | CHENNAI | BENGALURU | DUBAI | NEW YORK | ATLANTA | ORLANDO

SMC Global Securities Ltd., CIN No.: L74899DL1994PLC063609 | SMC Comtrade Ltd., CIN : U67120DL1997PLC188881 | REGISTERED OFFICE: 11/6-B, Shanti Chamber,

Pusa Road, New Delhi - 110005, Tel +91-11-30111000 | Email us at: [email protected]

Follow us on *T&

C a

pp

ly

triverse

MINUTES

Detailed portfolio analysis

Restructure investmentportfolio based onrisk-return profile

Latest news & updates on regular investments

Check health of yourequity & mutual funds portfolio

Simply upload yourConsolidated AccountStatement (CAS)

Choice to enter your portfolio manually

CHECK YOUR equity andmutual funds PORTFOLIO HEALTH

IN 2 MINuteS

CHECK YOUR equity and mutual funds PORTFOLIO HEALTH

IN 2 MINuteS(By simply uploading your CAS report)

india hopes high for next elections on 17th july, 2017… · india (rbi). on the commodity market...

Documents