india economic monitor covid-19 february 2021 update

COVID-19India Economic MonitorFebruary 2021 Update

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COVID-19 Executive Summary

Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis

Trends across key economic indicators• Industrial Activity: Daily avg. power consumption continued to witness a 5% YoY growth in Jan'21; fuel consumption YoY gap widened to -4% in Jan'21

compared to -2% YoY in Dec'20; Index of Industrial Production improved to 1% YoY growth in Dec'20 after witnessing contraction in Nov'20• Trade: In Jan'21, Merchandize exports & imports saw YoY growth (6% & 2%); Services imports YoY gap improved while exports YoY gap marginally widened in

Dec'20• Logistics: FASTag transactions increased 7% vs. Dec'20 in Jan'21; E-way bills grew at 10% YoY in Jan'21; JNPT traffic continued to grow YoY in Jan'21; Air & rail

passenger traffic improved in Dec'20-Jan'21 vs. previous months, however still significantly far from pre-COVID levels• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months; YoY growth rate dipped in the last week of Jan'21 vs previous weeks;

Value of UPI transactions continued to hit all time high levels, reaching INR 4.31 Tn (~100% YoY growth) in Jan'21• Sector-wise Impact: PVs, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow YoY in Jan'21 (PV sales grew 2%, 2W sales grew 10%, tractor sales grew 48% YoY), 3W continued

to see YoY de-growth; Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year in Dec'20; Fertilizer sales continued to see a contraction vs. last year levels, though YoY gap improved in Jan'21; Consumption of steel continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. last year; Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed an uptick vs. last year levels in Jan'21

• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections continued to grow vs. last year for the 5th month in Jan'21, hitting record high levels; MGNREGA work demand & employment trended at 30%+YoY levels

• Sentiment: Urban consumer sentiment improved while rural remained at the same level in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20, rural sentiment remained better than urban sentiment; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI remained beyond the 50-point mark in Jan'21 (57.7 & 52.8 respectively), witnessing an uptick vs. Dec'20 levels; Improvement in value of stock market transactions in Jan'21 vs. previous months; Mutual funds AUM continued to grow vs. last year levels in Jan'21

Jan'21 continued to show recovery across indicators. Select indicators hit record high levels (e.g., GST collections, UPI transactions, forex reserves). Merchandize trade witnessed positive YoY growth; Auto sales, steel consumption, insurance premium grew vs. last year levels; CPI (inflation rate) eased to 4.06% vs. 6+% highs in the previous months; GDP projections saw an upward revision at 6-10% YoY contraction for this financial year.

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0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

20-Dec

20-Jan

20-Feb

20-Sep

20-Jun

Total cases

20-Jul

20-Aug

20-0ct-20

20-Nov

2.8x2.3x

1.8x

1.4.x1.2x

1.1x 1.0x 1.0x

Deaths Recovered Active cases

Total cases 5.4M 10M

Active cases 1M 302k

Days Doubling Rate 34 282

Recovery Rate 80.1% 95.5%

Test Positivity Rate 8.5% 6.2%

Fatality Rate 1.6% 1.5%

Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis

7.6M

739k

88

88.8%

7.9%

1.5%

Active COVID-19 case count on a decline with improvement in recovery rate and days doubling rateData as of 20 Feb

1.1M

401k

18

62.8%

8.0%

2.4%

2.9M

690k

29

74.3%

8.7%

1.9%

9M

442k

186

93.6%

6.9%

1.5%

10.6M

189k

518

96.7%

5.6%

1.4%

142k

10.9M

626

97.2%

5.2%

1.4%

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.India's Investment Climate in 20202

Economic Indicators1

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Sector-wise ImpactCement Production MT -25% -15% -4% 3% -7% -10% NASteel Sales MT -23% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18% 13%Passenger Vehicle Sales k -50% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7% 2%Tractor Sales k -50% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41% 48%Two-wheeler Sales k -36% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11% 10%Fertilizer Sales MT 18% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14% -5%Gross Premium (Life) INR -32% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3% 4%Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR -11% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12% 7%Pharma. Sales INR 9% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8% NAChemical Production Index Index -2% -4% 0% 3% 5% 5% NAMacroeconomic IndicatorsTotal GST Collection INR -8% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12% 8%Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 3.7 NAMGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs 2% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56% 39%MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -1% 63% 65% 83% 47% 47% 32%No. of Tenders Announced k -4% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253% 68%FDI Inflow USD Bn 4.9 18.7 4.1 5.1 6.9 NA NAFII USD Bn -15.0 5.6 1.4 3.0 9.8 NA NASentimentIndia VIX Index 64.4 22.8 19.5 24.8 19.8 21.1 25.3PMI (Manufacturing) Index 51.8 52.0 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4 57.7PMI (Services) Index 49.3 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8

Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for India VIX, PMI, Central govt. expenditure, FDI, and FII where absolute values are represented)Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis

Summary: Jan'21 trends continued to show improvement across most indicators, with most indicators exceeding last year levels

Industrial Activity

Power Consumption MU -10% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5% 5%

Petroleum Consumption MT -18% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2% -4%

Index of Industrial Prod. Index -18% -7% 1% 4% -2% 1% NA

Trade

Services Export USD 1% -10% -1% -6% -5% -6% NA

Services Import USD -2% -20% -9% -12% -12% -8% NA

Merchandize Export USD -35% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1% 6%

Merchandize Import USD -29% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8% 2%

Logistics

E-Way Bills Generated Mn -26% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16% 10%

Railway Freight Originated MT -14% 4% 16% 15% 9% 9% NA

JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -13% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10% 9%

Air Freight kT -32% -30% -16% -14% -13% -9% NA

Air Passenger Traffic Mn -38% -79% -70% -62% -57% -50% NA

Rail Passengers Booked Mn -39% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73% -67%

Financial Services

UPI Transactions Mn 24% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105% 99%

Total Bank Credit INR 6.1% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3%

Total Bank Deposits INR 8.5% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% 11.3%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Indicator Unit Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Indicator Unit Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Jan

2020 20212020 2021

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Daily Average Power Consumption Volume ('000s MUs)

IIP1 (Index of Industrial Production) & ICI2 (Index of Core Industries)3

1

0

3

4

2

3.9

2.8

3.8 3.73.2

Apr-2

0

3.8

3.3

3.2

May

-20

Oct

-20

4.0

3.6

Jun-

20

3.7

Jul-2

0

3.6

Aug-

20

3.6

3.7

3.8

Sep-

20

3.6 3.3N

ov-2

0

3.3

3.5

Dec

-20

3.2

3.4

Jan-

21

Mar

-20

3.6

2019-20 2020-21

-20% -9%

5

0

10

15

20

Mar

-20

17.8

Apr-2

0

Dec

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

15.5

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

9.4

15.4 16.1 15.6 15.517.9 18.6 18.0

15.9

-49%

Consumption of Petroleum Products (in MMT)4

-13%

Power consumption continued to grow & fuel consumption continued to dip YoY in Jan'21; IIP improved in Dec'20, witnessing YoY growth

INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY

1

1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)3. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months4. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis CellSource: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis

-16%YoYgrowth -3%2%-16% -4%-10% -2%-3% 3% 10% 4%

117

90

108118 117

124 129 126136

133

81

108116

123 120 121 126 127134

0

50

100

150

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov

-20

Apr-2

0

Jun-

20

Aug-

20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

54

-11%-57% -17%-33% -7%

IIP ICIIIPYoY growth

1% 4% -2%5% 5% -4%1%-2%-25%-10% -19% -19%

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Merchandize trade improved, registering YoY growth in Jan'21; Services import YoY gap improved in Dec'20

MERCHANDIZE & SERVICES TRADE

2

Apr-20 May-20 Nov-20

33.4

Jun-20

17.1

Jul-20

21.4 22.721.1

Oct-20Sep-20

42.6

33.629.5

Aug-20 Dec-20Mar-20

27.5

Jan-211

28.5

10.3

19.1

42.0

22.221.9

31.223.6 27.6

30.324.9 23.5

26.9

Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports

1. Jan'21 Merchandize Import & Export numbers, Dec'20 Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 15th Feb'21Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis

Merchandize Trade (USD Bn) Services Trade (USD Bn)

-60% -36% -12%ExportsYoY growth

-10%

-60% -52% -48%ImportsYoY growth

-28%

-13%

-26%

Jul-20

16.4

May-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

10.1

Sep-20Jun-20

18.7

10.0

Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20

9.6

16.518.2

9.3

16.8 16.6

9.9

17.0

10.0

17.0 17.3

9.5

17.1

11.510.1

Mar-20

11.1

Services Exports Services Imports

-9% -8%-10%

-18% -15%-20%

-11%

-22%-20%

6% -10%

-20%

-1%

-9%

-5%

-12%

-6%

-12%

-9%

-13% 8%

-1% -5%

-12%

6%

2%

-6%

-8%

-35%

-29%

1%

-2%

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.85

1055

82 87 97

30

0

150

60

90

120

Apr-2

0

Jul-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Aug-

20

110

Sep-

20

122

Mar

-20

Oct

-20

125

Nov

-20

138

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

149

+7%

50

0

70

10

20

30

40

60

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Dec

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

49.4Se

p-20

8.6

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

64.2

Jan-

2125.5

43.448.4

57.464.1

57.762.9

Mar

-20

40.7

Aug-

20

-2%

-84% 18% 437% 48%MoMgrowth

YoYgrowth

-53% 6%-7%

E-way bill & FASTag transaction volumes grew YoY in Jan'21;Rail freight continued to grow vs. last year & previous months in Jan'21

3

1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. As per announcement by NHAI; 3. High YoY growth due to drop in e-way bills in Jun-19; due to new provision introduced limiting generation of E-Way bills if the GST Return filing pending for last 2 monthsSource: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis

E-way bills1 generated(Mn)

FASTag transaction volume (Mn)

Railway freight traffic originating (Mn Tons)

12%-4% 9% 14%

30

0

60

90

120

103.1

65.4

93.6

Apr-2

0

118.3

82.6

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Jun-

20

95.2 94.6

Aug-

20

102.3

Sep-

20

108.3

Oct

-20

110.1

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-20

+7%

-35% -21% -8%YoYgrowth

-5% 4%21% 11% 16%

LOGISTICS

8% 15%2% 11%16% 9%10% 7% 9%-14%-23%-26%

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.

0

350

10050

300

150200250

400450500

284

Dec

-20

Apr-2

0

275

May

-20

Jun-

20

344

Jul-2

0

380353

Aug-

20

Sep-

20423

Mar

-20

Oct

-20

414

Nov

-20

460 465

Jan-

21

410

289133

4076

107 123 128 144 148 142 150

77

7

5669 76

95 111 101 107180150

0

120

3060

270240210

90

Dec

-20

258

May

-20

239

Aug-

20

Apr-2

0

19

Jun-

20

210

Sep-

20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

47

95

163192 204

259244

Mar

-20

-37% -39% -29% -83% -68%YoYgrowth

YoYgrowth

Domestic International

-13% -20% -40% -34%

JNPT traffic continued to improve in Jan'21; Air Freight YoY gap improved in Dec'20 vs. Apr-Nov'20 levels, though below last year levels

LOGISTICS

3

JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1) Air Freight (k Tons)

1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall)Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis

-19% -5% -30%5% -16% -14%8% -13%10% -9%9% -32%

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YoYgrowth

Air & rail passenger traffic saw improvement vs. Apr-Nov'20 levels, though still significantly below last year levels

LOGISTICS

3

Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis

3

15

4 4 6 810

13 14

30

0

May

-20

010

Apr-2

0

11

14

0 0 0

Jun-

20

1

Jul-2

0

1

Aug-

20

1

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

1 1

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

18

4 56

811

16

Mar

-20

InternationalDomestic

Air Passengers (Mn)

-100% -98% -85% -84% -79%

436

-8 -4

4 15 22 3962

122

190239

0

150

250

400350300

-50

50100

200

450

Jun-

20

Sep-

20

Jul-2

0

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Aug-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-20

Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)

-101% -101% -100% -98% -97% -94%

Negative volume represents net higher

refunds as compared to new bookings in that

month

-70% -91%-62% -57% -83% -73% -67%-50%-38% -39%

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11.1 11.0 10.912.0

10.5 10.5 10.110.8 10.9 11.3 11.3 11.4

0

15

0

5140

10

150

145

147.

18

18-D

ec

143.

70

15-Ja

n

31-Ju

l

145.

83

140.

7914

-Aug

29-Ja

n

141.

75

144.

83

28-A

ug

142.

48

04-D

ec

11-S

ep

146.

25

142.

6225

-Sep

143.

02

144.

03

142.

92

06-N

ov

20-N

ov

01-Ja

n

09-O

ct

147.

98

23-O

ct

141.

60

11.4 11.1

YoY growth Aggregate bank deposits

5.7 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.75.1

5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.4 5.9

15

0

102

105

0

5

10

103.

39

106.

96

25-S

ep

06-N

ov

28-A

ug

105.

50

102.

2811

-Sep

102.

72

103.

4309

-Oct

23-O

ct

104.

19

102.

16

104.

35

102.

82

102.

20

105.

05

107.

05

04-D

ec

18-D

ec

31-Ju

l

01-Ja

n

15-Ja

n

29-Ja

n

106.

41

14-A

ug

20-N

ov

YoY growth Aggregate bank credit

Bank credit (INR Tn)

Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months, however the YoY growth rate dipped in the last week of Jan'21 vs previous weeks

FINANCIAL SERVICES

4

Total deposits value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks

Total credit outstanding value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks

Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis

YoY growth (%)Bank deposits (INR Tn) YoY growth (%)

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Value of UPI transactions in Jan'21 continued to spike by ~100% vs. previous year levels, hitting new milestones

4

Source: NPCI

0.0

1.8

2.7

4.5

3.6

0.9

2.06

Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

2.16

Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

4.16

2.23

Value of transactions in INR Tn

3.86

Aug-20

1.51

Jan-20 Feb-20

2.18

Mar-20

2.622.91

3.29

3.91

Jan-21

4.31

2.98 +99%

+4%

1.251.331.31 1.00 1.501.23 1.34

YoY%

Volume of Txn in Bn.

1.61

FINANCIAL SERVICES

1.80 2.07 2.21 2.23 2.30

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Consumption of steel continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. last year; Cement production fell in Dec'20 vs. last year levels

5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT

YoY growth

-15%

0.4

0

2

4

6

2.0

5.2

Jun-

20

Mar

-20

4.1

Apr-2

0

4.5

May

-20

3.5 4.0

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

4.7Ja

n-21

Sep-

20

4.5

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

5.7D

ec-2

05.5

Long Steel Consumption

Consumption of Long Steel (in MMT)

-43%

0

2

4

6

4.4

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Apr-2

0

Jul-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

0.6

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

2.1 2.53.8 4.0 3.8

4.4 4.5 4.9

Mar

-20

3.2

Flat Steel Consumption

Consumption of Flat Steel (in MMT)

-56% -51%-12% -6%

Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis

-5%-10% -7%6%

Cement Production (in MT)

0

10

20

30

27.0

Jul-2

0

22.4

May

-20

Apr-2

0

Jun-

20

24.226.424.220.9

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

27.5

Oct

-20

Mar

-20

25.3

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

24.8

4.3

Cement Production

-7%-21% -14% -15% -4%4%-3% 3%12%34% -7%19%18% -10%22% 4%-5% -90% -85%-25%-38%

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Passenger vehicle, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow vs. last year levels while 3W sales continued to dip in Jan'21 vs. last year

5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT

Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis

Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two-wheeler sales ('0000 units)

Tractor sales ('000 units) Three-wheeler sales ('000 units)

-48% -45%

-2% 13% 9% 0.2% 11% 18%

-39%

-3% 13%

-41%YoY growth

27% 9% 48%

7% 11%

-35%41%

Aug

73

Oct

114

SepApr JulJunMay Dec Jan

62

12

65 6582

Nov

7152

7144

92116 124

6088

5190

72 5759

Mar

35

99

-80% 1% 20% 36% 65%

360305 286 266 251 259

276322

311 289 327

181

4 49130

217 254311 351 303 310

306314

NovOctSepJunApr May Jul Aug Dec JanMar

205

SepMar AugMayApr

182

Jun Oct JanJul Nov Dec

240

5

202

38

195121 146

181 182 196 218 165242171 193

135 150184 182169

109

11592 91 92 96 105 111 112 104 95 98

54

7 2036 33

54 61 69 61 61

10467

Aug OctSepApr NovJunMay Jul Dec JanMar

-66%-61%-78%-92%

-20%-38%-81%-98%-14%-51%YoY growth -99% -83%

2019 2020 2021

-36%48%

10%2%-50% -36%

-53%-50%

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Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year in Dec'20; Fertilizer sales continued to contract vs. last year levels in Jan'21

5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT

1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)Source: AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Finance, PIB, The Economic Times, Press search, BCG analysis

Pharmaceutical Sales (INR k Cr)

Fertilizer Sales (in LMT)

Indian Chemical Production Index1 (3mo. moving avg.)

YoY growth

Apr-2

0

Oct

-20

May

-20

Nov

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

2013.0

Dec

-20

Aug-

20

10.2 10.311.2

12.1 12.213.2 13.5 12.8

Mar

-20

11.8

10%-9% 2%-11% 0.2% -2% 4% 1% 8%

Apr-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov

-20

May

-20

40

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

49

Aug-

20

29

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

21

69

92

69

47

6674

61

Mar

-20

45% 98% 79% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14%

11598

85 87103

113 117 118 121 123

Apr-2

0

Nov

-20

May

-20

Aug-

20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-20

-16% -27% -26% -12% -4% 0% 3% 5% 5%-5%9% 18% -2%

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19%

Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed an uptick vs. last year levels in Jan'21

5

Life Insurance premium observed 4% growth in Jan'21 Non-Life1 Insurance premium grew 7% YoY in Jan'21

24,122

15,92214,586

16,04917,334

23,057

15,85514,981

17,936 18,488

Jan-20Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20Oct-20 Jan-21

+7%

1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis

20,05717,272

26,221 25,080

20,623

25,36622,776

19,159

24,38321,390

Nov-20Jan-20Nov-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

+4%

Number of policies

(‘000)

YoY growth rate for no. of policies

Premium (INR Cr.)

2648 3022

14%

SECTOR-WISE IMPACT

Premium (INR Cr.)

2343 2291

-2%

2237 2087

-7%

4018 2111

-47%

4691 3187

-32%

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Central Govt.'s revenue & expenditure continued to increase YoY in Dec'20; GST collections hit record high levels, growing 8% YoY in Jan'21

Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn)(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance)

Total GST Collections3 (INR Tn)(based on data from GST Council)

-38% -9%

ExpenditureYoY growth

1. Bloomberg Quint 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt capital receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, CessSource: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis

2

2 -1

0

0

3

4

6 1

8

10

-2

1.9

2.0

Mar

-20

May

-20

3.0

0.3

3.1

Nov

-20

2.4

Jul-2

0

Expe

nditu

re &

Rec

eipt

s (IN

R T

n)

1.6

Aug-

20

Apr-2

0

2.2

1.21.9

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

0.5 0.4

2.8

0.4

Oct

-20

0.8

1.40.2

Gross Fiscal D

eficit (INR

Tn)

1.12.4

3.7

0.81.4

2.0

1.8

1.2Se

p-20

2.9

3.2

-1.0

1.92.3

Non-Debt ReceiptsTotal Expenditure Gross Fiscal Deficit2

0.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jul-2

0

1.15

Nov

-20

0.32

1.05

Jan-

21

May

-20To

tal G

ST C

olle

ctio

ns (I

NR

Tn)

0.98

Sep-

20

Jun-

20

Aug-

20

1.05

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

0.62

0.91 0.87 0.860.95

1.20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

RevenueYoY growth

-15%

21% -21%

-72% -64%

46%

-24%

6%

-28%

6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

-12%YoY growth

4%-35%

-15%

10%-13%

-26%

1%47%

9%

12%

48%

58% 8%

29%

76% -72%-8%

80%

-2%

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MGNREGA work demand & employment trended at 30%+YoY levels after trending at 40%+ YoY levels in previous months

6

160

390

50

100

150

200

Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Nov-20Sep-20

20

Jan-21Jul-20

33

Aug-20 Oct-20

20

Dec-20Mar-2011 28 2120 18 21

80%YoYGrowth 56%-35%

Work Demand (households, in Mn)

Employment Provided (households, in Mn)

21 13

37 4532 24 24 24 23 27 26

01020304050

Apr-20 Nov-20Oct-20May-20 Jul-20Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Jan-21Mar-20

74%YoYGrowth 49%-37% 74%

83%

MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee ActSource: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis

63%

67%

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

65%

71% 89%

83%

50%

47%

56%

47%

39%

32%

2%

-1%

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Organized sector hiring & joining activity remained at similar levels in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 (based on select indicators)

6

1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 21-Sep-20; 3. Covers every establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each 4. Net EPF additions are revised monthly as per the EPFO dataSource: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis

Naukri Jobspeak Index dipped in Jan'21

Net New EPF Subscriber Trend

Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited and rejoined during the month as per records of the EPFO

Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per month are mandated to become members of the EPF upon joining

Net new EPF subscribers improved to ~1+ Mn (Sep-Nov'20), higher than last year & previous month levels

Naukri Jobspeak Index

Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on newly added job listings on Naukri.com every month

Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of white-collar jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector

100 101

82

40 3851 53 59

74 74 7383 81

0

50

100

150

Oct-20 Nov-20Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Jan-21Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Dec-20

Naukri Jobspeak Index

Jan-201

number taken as base for

index (100)

Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)

0.0

0.5

1.5

1.0

-0.5Sep’20

0.58

1.33

0.540.81

0.640.57

Mar’20

0.50

-0.21

Apr’20

0.31

-0.19

May’20

0.620.22

Oct’20Jun’20

0.690.34

Jul’20

0.73

Aug’20

1.060.83

1.01

Nov’20

2019

2020


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WPI increased from 1.22% to 2.03% while CPI eased again to 4.06% in Jan'21

6

1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commoditiesNote: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE

Monthly inflation rate (%)

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.2

2.82.0

1.2 1.20.3 0.0

2.83.5

2.3

0.2

1.3 1.5 1.6 1.22.0

5

-5

10

0

Feb-

19Ja

n-19

Apr-1

9M

ay-1

9

Oct

-19

Jun-

19Ju

l-19

Aug-

19Se

p-19

0.6

Nov

-19

May

-20

Dec

-19

Mar

-19

-0.6

Feb-

20

Jul-2

0

0.4

Mar

-20

Jan-

21

-1.6

Apr-2

0

-3.4

-1.8Ju

n-20

Oct

-20

Aug-

20Se

p-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

20

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1

2.62.9

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

4.0

7.47.6

7.2

6.3

6.26.7 6.7

7.37.6

6.9

4.1

8

6

2

0

4

Feb-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

19

Jun-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

Oct

-19

May

-19

Oct

-20

3.3

Feb-

20

Aug-

19

Dec

-20

Aug-

20

4.6

Dec

-19

5.5

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

6.6

5.8

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0M

ay-2

0Ju

n-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov

-20

4.6

2.0

Jan-

21

Sep-

19


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Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Jan-

21

Jan'21 repo, reverse repo rate and MCLR on bank borrowings remained at the same levels; base rate improved vs. Dec'20

1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was introduced from April 2016 for fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banksSource: CMIE, RBI DBIE

Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks (Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)

8.29

4.00

3

6

9

12

Nov

-20

Jun-

20

Feb-

20

Apr-2

0

Aug-

20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Policy rate %

3.35

Base rate 2 Reverse Repo rate4Repo rate3

7.32

8.40

6.05

3

6

9

12

Jan-

21

May

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Dec

-20

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Feb-

20

Apr-2

0

Jun-

20

Oct

-20

MCLR (%)

7.30

Total

Public Sector Banks Foreign Banks

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INR remained rangebound at ~73/dollar; Forex reserves continued to reach new peaks, at ~590 USD Bn in Jan'21

Source: CMIE, RBI

Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)


74.6773.89 73.89

72.97 73.02

20-D

ec-2

0

27-D

ec-2

0

6-D

ec-2

0

1-N

ov-2

0

13-D

ec-2

0

29-N

ov-2

0

8-N

ov-2

0

22-N

ov-2

0

15-N

ov-2

0

3-Ja

n-21

10-Ja

n-21

17-Ja

n-21

24-Ja

n-21

80

31-Ja

n-21

70

75

Exchange Rate (INR/USD)

73.01

546 552 555 561 561 568 573 575 575 579 579 581 581 585 586 584 585 590

2-O

ct-2

0

9-O

ct-2

0

16-O

ct-2

0

13-N

ov-2

0

23-O

ct-2

0

20-N

ov-2

0

30-O

ct-2

0

6-N

ov-2

0

15-Ja

n-21

27-N

ov-2

0

4-D

ec-2

0

11-D

ec-2

0

18-D

ec-2

0

25-D

ec-2

0

1-Ja

n-21

8-Ja

n-21

22-Ja

n-21

29-Ja

n-21

Forex reserves (USD Billion)

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Both Manufacturing and Services PMI saw an uptick in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 levels, remaining above the 50-point mark

SENTIMENT –MFG. & SERVICES PMI

7

Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession.Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis

Manufacturing PMI reached 57.7 in Jan'21, an uptick from the Dec'20 mark

Services PMI improved to 52.8 in Jan'21, compared to the 52.3 mark in Dec'20

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

Possible expansion

in the sector

Possible contraction in the sector

49.3

33.7

49.854.1 53.7 52.3 52.8

05

10152025303540455055

Sep-

20

Jul-2

0

Mar

-20

May

-20

Nov

-20

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr-2

0

Jun-

20

Aug-

20

Dec

-20

12.6

41.850

34.2

5.4

51.847.2

46.0

52.056.8 58.9

56.3 56.4 57.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr-2

0

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Dec

-20

Jun-

20

Aug-

20

Oct

-20

30.8

50

27.4

Possible expansion

in the sector

Possible contraction in the sector

Manufacturing PMI exceeded the global PMI levels of 53.5 in

Jan'21

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Consumer sentiment still far below pre-COVID levels;Rural sentiment remained better than urban sentiment in Jan'21

SENTIMENT-CONSUMER SENTIMENT

7

Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey

CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index

109 106 97

49 44 45 45 51 50 56 55 56 56

0

50

100

150

May

’20

Jan’

20

Oct

’20

Mar

’20

Feb’

20

Apr’2

0

Jun’

20

Jul’2

0

Aug’

20

Sep’

20

Nov

’20

Dec

’20

Jan’

21

-49%

102 104 96

40 37 40 40 38 40 47 46 48 50

0

50

100

150

Feb’

20

Jan’

20

Mar

’20

Apr’2

0

May

’20

Jun’

20

Jul’2

0

Aug’

20

Sep’

20

Oct

’20

Nov

’20

Jan’

21

Dec

’20

-50%

Sample Size• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969

villages surveyed over 4 months

Methodology• Longitudinal survey: Same set of

households surveyed in batches over time

• Scoring based on 5 questions:– Perception of current well-being– Expectations of future well-being– Perceptions of current economic

conditions of the country – Perceptions of prospective

economic conditions of the country

– Household's propensity to spend on consumer durables

Urban Consumer Sentiment Index

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Majority sectors showed decline in Jan'2021; PSU, CPSE & Utilities saw maximum decline

SENTIMENT – BSE SECTORAL INDICES

7

1. Growth rate vs. 01-Feb-202. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology & telecommunications sector3. CPSE- Central Public Sector EnterprisesSource : BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis

BSE Sectoral Indices Descending order of performance1

50

60

-10

-50

70

-40

-30

-20

0

10

20

30

40

19-F

eb

01-F

eb

01-Ju

n

14-D

ec

18-Ju

n

31-D

ec

12-O

ct

11-M

ar

12-M

ay

15-Ja

n

Change (%)

30-M

ar

22-A

pr

10-Ju

l

27-Ju

l

11-A

ug

11-N

ov

26-A

ug

26-N

ov

10-S

ep

25-S

ep

27-O

ct

31-Ja

n

Sector % ChangeIT 54.21%

Healthcare 50.20%TecK 42.31%

Basic Materials 26.85%BSEAUTO Index 24.93%

Industrials 23.90%Energy 21.54%Metal 20.40%

Consumer discretionary 18.68%BSE 500 17.88%

Capital Goods 17.18%Consumer Durables 16.50%

Telecom 14.36%Power 8.80%Infra 7.74%

FMCG 7.36%Realty 3.86%

Finance 3.22%Oil and Gas 1.83%

Bankex 1.47%Utilities -1.05%

CPSE -7.52%PSU -9.21%

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Value of stock market transactions continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. previous months; Mutual fund AUM grew by 9% YoY in Jan'21

SENTIMENT –STOCK MKT. TRANSACTIONS

7

1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shownSource: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis

Stock Market Transactions (INR k Cr)

-3% -5% 5%

25

5

20

0

35

10

30

15

25.5

Jun-

20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

26.9

Oct

-20

28.2

Dec

-20

Nov

-20

30.0

Jan-

21

23.9 24.527.1 27.5

31.0 30.5

Mar

-20

22.3

Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks

11%

Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)

64

2925 23 20

2520 21

25

0

20

40

60

80

0

2,000

1,000

1,500

500

110

1,223

India Volatility Index (VIX) 1

44

Tran

sact

ion

Valu

e ( I

NR

) k C

r

Dec

-20

906

Apr-2

0

65

1,000

30

1,349

May

-20

1,351

Nov

-20

Jun-

2080

Jul-2

093

1,283Au

g-20

1,099

70

Sep-

20

Jan-

21

58

Oct

-20

71

1,337

99

1,375

34

104

1,449

Mar

-20

1,006

82

BSE India VIXNSE

21% 12% 135%BSE YoY

42% 27% 127%NSE YoY

66%

89%

8%83%

90%

10%33%

72%

7%2%

46%

11%30%

60%

17%

102%

128% 9%86%

80%

-20%

44%

-6%

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Indian GDP growth forecasts revised upwards to 6.7-9.6% contractionin the financial year

5.2 5.1 5.2 5.83.5 0.8 3.5 1.5

Fitch Ratings

Barclays Crisil DBS

-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3

6.0 5.5 5.8 3.32.1 3.6 1.9 1.6

EIU IMFIndia Ratings

Goldman Sachs

-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -1.7

May-Jun'20 Sep-Oct'20

1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 20-Sep-20203. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis

India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)Mar-Apr'20

4.7 3.3 5.8 5.5

-5.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0

ICRA Goldman Sachs

Moody’sIMF

-9.7 -8.3 -10.3 -9.5

1.15.5 4.5 5.2

-6.8 -5.3 -6.0-3.2

SBI3 India Ratings

Deutsche Bank

Barclays

-7.9-10.8 -10.5 -8.4

Pre-lockdown forecasts1

Post-lockdown forecasts2

3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8%

Jul-Aug'20

-4.5% to -10.9%

Data as of 18 Feb'21; Estimates likely to be revised further

4.1 4.7 5.5

-6.0-9.5

-4.5

Bank of America

ICRA FICCI

-10.1 -14.2 -10.0

5.8 5.71.1

-6.0 -6.1-10.9

SBI3DBS Nomura

-11.8 -11.8-12.0

NON - EXHAUSTIVE

5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5

-10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -11.5RBIIMF NomuraMoody’s

-16.1 -15.5 -16.5 -17.0

-9.5% to -14.8%

GDP FORECASTS

5.5 5.1 3.3 4.7

-11.8 -10.5-14.8

-11.0

India Ratings

Fitch Ratings

Goldman Sachs

ICRA

-17.3 -15.6 -18.1 -15.7

GDP Growth Forecast % Range

3.3 6.0 5.2 5.5

-10.3-7.5 -7.7

-10.6Goldman

SachsRBI S&P

GlobalMoody’s

-13.6 -13.5 -12.9 -16.1

5.81.1

5.1 4.7

-9.0 -7.4 -9.4 -7.8

DBS ICRASBI3 Fitch Ratings

-14.8-9.1

-14.5 -12.5

-7.4% to -10.6%

Nov-Dec'20 Jan-Feb'21

4.1 5.7

-6.7 -6.7

Bank of America

Nomura

-10.8 -12.4

5.8 5.81.1

-9.6 -8.0 -7.0

World Bank

SBI3IMF

-15.4 -13.8-8.1

-6.7% to -9.6%

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.India's Investment Climate in 2020

2

Economic Indicators1

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+50% growth across 6 years

$~50+Bn$35Bn

20202014

Source : EIU (2020 value is an estimate); UNCTAD

Electronics Taiwan

InfrastructureUAE

Electronics S. Korea

Oil & GasUnited Kingdom

AutoS. Korea

MachinerySwitzerland

AerospaceUnited States

Capital GoodsFrance

India Investment Climate 2020

India has emerged as one of the most attractive FDI destination over the past few years

4th largest FDI inflows in Asia and amongst top 10 recipients globally

With notable investments across all sectors and source countries

Illustrative

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdstat45_FS09_en.pdf

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Source: MEA, India, Pitchbook

Google

Facebook

Walmart

Foxconn

$10 Bn

$5.99 Bn

$1.9 Bn

$1 Bn

• $4.68 Bn investment received through Jio, Glance, Redwig Aerospace Labs & BlueSemi

• Focus on collaborating WhatsApp with Reliance's e-commerce venture JioMart to enable people to connect with businesses, shops and purchase products

• $5.73 Bn raised by Jio; $260 Mn raised by Unacademy

• $1.2 Bn invested in Flipkart: Focus on expanding Flipkart's offer though technology, partnerships and new services & innovation

• $700 Mn invested in PhonePe

• Production shift in India to steer away from US-China trade war

Company Amount announced (USD) Focus

India Investment Climate 2020Flagship investments were announced in 2020

Not exhaustive

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India witnessed significant FDI in Jan-Nov'20

1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Nov'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies

Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows

Including Reliance-Jio Deals

2.3 3.1 3.25.5 4.6 3.0 2.8 2.5

4.7 4.51.6

4.2 4.0 2.5 3.25.5 4.1

7.64.7 2.8 3.0 4.1 3.7 5.5 6.2

4.0 4.91.3 0.8 0.1

4.3

18.7

4.1 5.1 6.9

Nov

-19

May

-18

Apr-1

8

Feb-

18

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Jun-

20

May

-20

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Apr-2

0

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

May

-19

Nov

-202

Sep-

20

Jul-2

0

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Aug-

20

Oct

-20

$42 Bn2018

$50 Bn2019

$56.3 BnJan-Nov'20


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Foreign Institutional Investments improved in Jun-Nov'20 albeit remained somber in Jan-Nov'20

-3.8

Aug-

18

2.0

-4.2

Feb-

18

Jun-

18

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Dec

-18

Mar

-18

Apr-1

8

-4.9

May

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Apr-2

0

Nov

-18

2.71.9

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

0.3

Oct

-19

-0.5

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

0.3

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

-1.4

1.2

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

3.0

Oct

-20

3.40.3

-15.0

-1.4

4.6

-3.2 -1.7 -2.1 -0.4-0.5

9.3

1.9 2.26.0

-1.8

1.7

-1.5

3.30.7

5.61.4 3.0

Nov

-201

9.8

Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn)

-$11 Bn2018

$26 Bn2019

$6.8 BnJan-Nov'20

xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs

1. Nov'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies


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Note: FPI includes equity & investment fund shares and Debt SecuritiesSource: CMIE

Portfolio investments in India improved in Apr-Sep'20 after witnessing steep decline in Jan-Mar'20


Sep-18

2.0

Jun-18Dec-17 Mar-18 Sep-19Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

7.7

Sep-20

2.4

11.55.4

-14.7-9.1

-2.4 -2.2

5.28.1

1.1

+286%

Portfolio Investments in India ($ Bn)

-$11.3 Bn2018

$26.8 Bn2019

-$6 BnTill Sep'20

xx Annual (Calendar Year) portfolio investments

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34080

2020 (till Nov'20)2019

~$22 Bn~$6Bn

2019

5884

3915 15 25 33

16 16 16 23

Jul’2

0

Mar

’20

Feb’

20

Jan’

20

Apr’2

0

May

’20

Jun’

20

Aug’

20

Sep’

20

Oct

’20

Nov

’20

+53%

2.39

Oct

’20

Mar

’20

3.22

Jul’2

0

Jan’

20

Aug’

20

May

’20

Feb’

20

Apr’2

0

Jun’

20

Sep’

20

Nov

’20

0.41

5.06

0.64

4.76

0.281.03

3.40

0.40 0.63+640%

Capex (USD Bn)No. of projects

Jobs created(in thousands)# of companies

23 23 14 4 3 6 12 3 3 4 9

50 52 32 15 15 21 19 16 15 16 22

2020 (till Nov'20)

Note: data includes announced projectsSource: fDi Markets, from the Financial Times Ltd 2020

Recovery observed in greenfield projects in Nov'20 vs. April'20 lows

Capex in greenfield investments in Nov'20 back to pre-Covid Levels

106110

20182017

~$7Bn~$5Bn

20182017

Greenfield investments showed appreciable YoY growth in 2020 vs. last year


+300% growth in number of projectsvs. 2019 …

… +300% growth in Capexvs. 2019

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PE/VC investments deal value witnessed an uptick in Dec'20, ~50% higher than Jan'20 levels


Note: 1. Deals include Angel/Seed, Venture Capital and Private Equity deals which are announced & closed between 01-Jan- 2020 and 31-Dec-2020; 2. Others includes Media & Entertainment, Retail, Shipping & Logistics, Sports & Fitness, Textiles & Garments, Travel & Transport, FMCG, Advertising, othersSource: Venture Intelligence, BCG analysis

15%

Aug-20

4%

3%

8%

13%15%

20%

8%3%

5%

15%

Feb-20

13%

66%

May-20Mar-20

6%

12%

40%

2.82

3%

27%

Apr-20

3%

3%33%40%

8%11%3%

39%

31%

2%7%

3%

14%

52%

Jun-20

20% 36%11%

55%18%

5%

Sep-20

5%25%

65%

Oct-20

23%23%

3%

38%51%

Nov-20

3%

25%

21%

10%

21%

Dec-20

14%

11%

4%

3% 6%

1.82

1.09 1.140.89

2.10

29%

1.60 1.561.33

4.19

24%

Jan-20

33%41%

18%

Jul-20

18%

11%1.62 1.66

+49%

# of deals 80 79 71 68 42 66 64 59 70 53 76 78Avg. deal value ($ Mn) 35 23 15 17 21 25 33 28 23 29 17 54

BFSI Education Healthcare & Life SciencesEnergy IT & ITES Manufacturing OthersTelecom

Reliance Retail attracted ~$6.4 Bn USD while Jio platform attracted $22 Bn in PE Deals in 2020

$21.8 Bn2020

Total deal value of PE/VC investments1 ($ Bn)(Excluding Jio Platforms & Reliance Retail deals)

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1. Projects dropped include – Projects being Abandoned altogether, and/or Shelved, and/or Stalled. Dollar value taken on a monthly basis (LHS) & yearly basis (RHS)Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis

58

84

69

4348

53

23

48

99

51

11 14 123 6

44

107

58 57

81

102

62

51

32

4741

2732

Sep-18 Mar-19Dec-17 Jun-19Mar-18 Dec-18Jun-18 Sep-19 Jun-20Dec-19 Mar-20

12

Sep-20 Dec-20

1017

24 2114

20

38

13

23 24

Investments by all projects started to improve, albeit slowly after the significant decline in Apr-Jun'20 quarter

New Projects Announced Projects Completed Projects dropped

Investment by all projects, USD Bn

237.6212.5 223.1

264.2

301.8

192.7

73.0

2018-19 2019-20

93.0

2017-18

75.0

2019-20 saw higher projects announced and lower projects

dropped vs. 2018-19


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Count & value of tenders announced by Central & State Govts. grew YoY noticeably in most months of 2020 vs. last year

Aug-

20

May

-20

Mar

-20

Feb-

20

3.6

2.7

Jan-

20

4.6

Jun-

20

Apr-2

0

Sep-

20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

2.8 2.51.8

0.8

3.6

1.72.1

3.32.9

4.2

Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis

Count of tenders announced by central &state govts (k)

Value of tenders announced by central & state govts (USD Bn)

YoYgrowth

17%-10% 7%-4%-5% 29% 54%-53% 244%-42% 123%125% 55%-49% -20%80% 110% 43%201% 88%127% 28%253% 52%68% 42%

32K2020

$95.4 Bn2020


9.137.68

6.237.89

6.63 6.327.65

5.87

10.057.95 8.07

11.87 12.65

Jun-

20

Jan-

20

Dec

-20

Mar

-20

Feb-

20

Aug-

20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Jan-

21

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

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