india chartbook pam mumbai pam 2016... · msp average increase announced was 9.4% compared to 7.3%...
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India ChartbookDecoding Demonetization
Business Economics BankingDecember 2016
2
YBL View: Summary
DemonetizationWe expect demonetization to accrue significant benefits in the medium term throughformalization of the economy. In the short-term however, we expect significantnegative impact on growth as economic agents adjust to liquidity crunch.
GrowthWe revise down our FY17 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 7.6%.
InflationWe maintain our CPI inflation forecast at 4.8% in FY17 compared to 4.9% in FY16. Webelieve demonetization could impact a marginal downside bias to our estimates.
Monetary policyThe undershooting of inflation vis-à-vis target and MPC’s preference for revivinggrowth creates room for additional monetary easing. We expect a cumulative 50 bpsrate cut by Apr-17. Meanwhile, liquidity fine tuning to continue via MSS/ ReverseRepo.
ExternalWe calibrate our INR forecasts, in line with unexpected US dollar strength followingUS elections and shift in sentiment against EMs but expect strong domesticfundamentals to cap the downside.USDINR is expected to reach 68 by Mar-17, moving to 70 over the next 12-monthhorizon.
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Demonetization
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Assumptions:1. Parallel economy estimated at 21% of total GDP as of 2007. Cash maintained at 13% of black wealth equivalent to Rs 4
trn. 50% of black wealth in form of cash to not be disclosed for fear of legal repercussion2. No. of maximum unique accounts estimated at ~490 mn, of which 250 mn Jan Dhan accounts. Assuming entire
outstanding balance of Jan Dhan accounts to be withdrawn (Rs 0.5 tn), adding withdrawal limits of Rs 24,000 per weekon non Jan Dhan account, maximum withdrawals to be capped at Rs 10-11 tn over a period of time.
Demonetization – YBL analysis
Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes account for 85% of total
currency in circulation or ~ Rs 15 trn
Destruction of unaccounted wealth1
Withdrawal up to maximum of Rs 13 trn
based on limits and unique accounts2
Durable deposits to increase by Rs 1-2 trn in the
banking system
Blended cost of funds for banks to reduce as CASA deposits go up. MCLR to
witness quicker transmission leading to
lower lending rates
Expect banks to reduce deposit rates by ~50-75 bps
over the next 6-9 months
5
Demonetization: Flowchart of likely impact
Near Term Liquidity Shock (Nov-Mar FY17)
•Supply chain disruption
•Challenges for rabisowing
•Deferment of discretionary consumption
•Decline in labor productivity
•Setback for illegal and anti-national activities
Re-monetization
•Expected to take at least 3-months
•Re-monetization to proceed gradually from urban to rural centers
Medium Term (FY18 onwards)
•Structural jump in bank deposits
• Aid financial inclusion
•Enhancement of monetary policy transmission
•Lower interest rates
•Higher fiscal revenue
•Boost in transparency and productivity
The liquidity shock from demonetization is expected to be temporary and have transient negative impact on economic activity in cash intensive sectors
With re-monetization, the negative impact will taper, with economic activity expected to regain momentum from Q1 FY18 onwards
6
Demonetization: Sectoral impact
•E-Commerce•Banks
Positive
• Consumer Durables• Gold• Real Estate• Mining• Auto• FMCG• NBFCs
Negative
•IT•Pharma
Neutral
Short Term (Nov-Mar FY17)
• E-Commerce• Banks• NBFCs
Positive
• Gold
Negative
• IT• Pharma• Auto• Consumer Durables• FMCG• Mining• Real Estate
Neutral
Medium Term (FY18 onwards)
7
Trend in bank deposits and withdrawals
After the initial gush, the run rate for depositing old currency has started tomoderate from a daily average of INR 600+ bn in Week 1 to a daily average ofaround INR 450-500 bn in Week 3If this trend continues, then the deposit figure could touch INR 1400 bn by midDec-16Pace of withdrawal is expected to have picked up momentum on account ofsalary withdrawal from accounts at the beginning of December month• From a daily average of INR 129 bn in Week 1 to a daily average of around
INR 190 bn in Week 3
Cumulative Delta
Deposited Exchanged Withdrawn Deposited Exchanged Withdrawn
18-Nov 5116 330 1033 5116 330 1033
27-Nov 8110 339 2166 2995 9 1133
5-Dec* 11554 339 3496 3444 0 1330
* YBL estimate
Note: Post Offices have collected INR 326 bn and exchanged old notes worth INR 37 bn as of 27-Nov
8
Trend in money market liquidity
From a deficit position of INR 557 bn as on Nov 9, money market liquiditycurrently stands at a surplus level of INR 3.1 trillion
Liquidity Infusion(Nov 9 – Dec 5)
•Deposits (INR 11500 bn)•Government Spending (INR
400 bn)
Liquidity Outflow (Nov 9 – Dec 2)
•Withdrawals (INR 3500 bn)•CRR hike (INR 3200 bn)•CMB issuance (INR 1650 bn)•FCNR(B) maturity (INR
1000 bn)
Note: Amount in table is a rounded off approximation
9
Economic data post demonetization
Services PMI has shown a greater impact vis-à-vis Manufacturing PMIAuto sector has seen a contraction in annualized sales• 3W, CV, and 2W sales most impacted so far
Rabi cultivation has not depicted any signs of pressure due to demonetizationwith healthy progress observed so far
Oct-16 Nov-16
PMI – Manufacturing (Index) 54.4 52.3
PMI – Services (Index) 54.5 46.7
PV Sales (% YoY) 4.5 1.8
2W Sales (% YoY) 8.7 -5.9
3W Sales (% YoY) 4.3 -25.9
CV Sales (% YoY) 11.9 -11.6
Nov-4 Nov-11 Nov-18 Nov-25 Dec-2
Area Sown (Rabi) -8.3 15.9 -0.7 4.6 8.5
Note: Data for rabi sowing shows change in area sown vis-à-vis corresponding period last year
Note: PMI value below 50 indicates contraction in activity
10
Economic data post demonetization (cont’d)
Barring cereals, all major food items have softened in the month of Nov-16 as perhigh frequency data collected from various government sources• Information for first 4-days of Dec-16 confirms further correction in food
pricesWe expect CPI Food Index to contract by 0.2% MoM in Nov-16 vis-à-vis anexpansion of 0.5% observed in Nov-15• Headline CPI inflation for Nov-16 is expected at 3.95% YoY, down from
4.20% YoY in Oct-16
Weight in CPI Nov-15 Nov-16Cereals 9.7 0.08 2.19Pulses 2.4 2.30 -0.04Vegetables 6.0 -0.10 -7.07Fruits 2.9 -3.68 -1.80
% MoM change in key food items
With CPI inflation expected to undershoot RBI’s 5% target for Mar-17 by 50-60 bps, thereby creating room for incremental 50 bps rate cut by Apr-17
11
FY17 real GDP growth expected at 6.7%
Growth supportive factors
Growth limiting factors
Bottom line: We revise down our FY17 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 7.6% previouslyThe demonetization is expected to impact growth in the short-term with the cash crunchimpacting discretionary consumption and cash transaction heavy sectors. We expect growthmomentum to normalize from Q1FY18 onwards. Growth in FY17 is expected to be supportedby normal monsoon, 7th CPC payouts, public sector led capex and lower interest rates.
Normal monsoon 7th CPC payouts (since Aug.) Public sector capex Lower interest rates
Demonetization to drag growth in Q3 & Q4. Impacting consumer durables and cash transaction heavy sectors
External demand weakness
12
Inflation
13
October Recap: Food driven disinflation continues
CPI and WPI inflation eased to 14-month and 4-month low respectively in Oct-16,driven by continued moderation in food inflationOn monthly momentum basis, while food prices continued to ease on wholesaleside, retail prices saw a marginal uptick in the monthThe festivity related uptick in prices usually seen in pre-Diwali month in items ofdiscretionary consumption remained muted this time
CPI and WPI inflation eased further in October… …as food prices continue to see tepid momentum
-2.5
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Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
CPI Food %MoMWPI Food %MoM
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
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ct-1
5N
ov-1
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5Ja
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Feb-
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ar-1
6A
pr-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-16
Jul-1
6A
ug-1
6Se
p-16
Oct
-16
CPI Inflation (%YoY) WPI Inflation (%YoY)
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November dynamics: Mixed, so far
MSP average increase announced was 9.4% compared to 7.3% in FY16Impact of MSP hike on CPI & WPI is estimated at 26 bps & 15 bps respectively.Price momentum for key food items for Nov-16 has so far been mixed, with fruitsand vegetables showing disinflationVegetable arrivals continue to maintain momentum, as opposed to media reportsstating a decline post 8th Nov demonetization announcement
MSP Hikes marginally higher across the board, bonus incentive for pulses continues
Price momentum for key food items mixed, so far in Nov-16
Price (in Rs) Bonus %YoY Price (in Rs) Bonus %YoYWheat 1525 5.2 1625 6.6Barley 1225 6.5 1325 200 8.2Gram 3425 75 7.9 3800 200 10.9Masur (lentil) 3325 75 8.1 3800 150 14.3Rapeseed/Mustard 3350 8.1 3600 100 7.5Safflower 3300 8.2 3600 100 9.1
2015-16 2016-17
Rabi CropSep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16
Fruits -3.7 -4.8 -1.2Vegetables -7.8 1.0 -4.9Cereals 0.2 0.1 1.6Pulses -5.8 1.8 2.3Milk 0.4 -0.1 -0.2Sugar -0.3 0.5 0.2
Monthly price increments (%)
TimeBitter
GourdBrinjal Long
Brinjal Round Cabbage
Cauli-flower Garlic Ginger Chilly Okra Onion Peas
Potato Fresh
Potato stored
Tomato Hybrid
Tomato local Total
Upto 8th Nov 258 249 582 1393 1245 573 1425 1189 365 15651 183 4653 4555 2948 1095 36364
8-17th Nov-16 237 309 702 1504 1503 648 1538 1266 370 14818 183 4990 6132 3044 1122 38366% Change -8 24 21 8 21 13 8 6 1 -5 0 7 35 3 3 6
Vegetable Arrivals in Mandi
Opposed to media news, we find that vegetable arrivals has not been dented since demonetization announcement
15
CPI Inflation to moderate further to below 4% from Nov onwards
CPI inflation expected to moderate further to below 4%YoY from Nov onwardsaided by –o Improved Kharif output and reservoir water levels supporting Rabi outputo Rabi sowing currently stands at 214.73 lakh hectares, ~1% lower than same
period last yearo Demand-push factors remaining benign with the recent demonetization
adding to the downsideWe expect FY17 CPI inflation to broadly track 4.8% vs. 4.9%YoY in FY16
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17*
CPI food inflationKharif Food grain production ~rhs
CPI industrial worker used till FY12. New CPI used from FY13 onwards
* CPI in FY17 is over Apr-Aug period and kharif food grain production is first advanced estimate
Rise in kharif food grain output… …To support moderation in CPI inflation
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9
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep-
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Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
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15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep-
16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
CPI (% YoY)
YBL estimate
16
Rates View
17
Assessing RBI’s monetary policy space
The RBI has been overachieving its inflation glide path target so far• Government notified its inflation target of 4% with a band of +/-2%,
applicable till end FY21• Undershooting of Mar-17 inflation target by as much as 50 bps provides
room for another incremental monetary easing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
CPI (% YoY)1st Glide Path Target
2nd Glide Path Target
3rd Glide Path Target
Government's Notified Inflation Target Band
Long Term Target
18
Rates outlook
Despite a surge in US yields post Trump’s election win, local market yields havedefied global pressuresWith expectation of 50 bps rate cut from the RBI by Apr-17 and approx INR 1-2 tnimprovement in banks deposits on a structural basis (post demonetization), weexpect 10Y g-sec yield to soften to 6.25% by Mar-17
Downside Risk Factors• Delay in anticipated growth recovery
post demonetization• Higher than expected structural
improvement in bankUpside Risk Factors• Geopolitical risks• Fed tightening in 2017• Firming up of commodity prices, esp. oil• Supply of UDAY bonds in Q4 FY17
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2.6
Jan-
16
Feb-
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Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
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Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
Sep-
16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
UST 10Y Yield (%) India 10Y G-sec Yield (%, RHS)
19
INR view
20
INR weakness: More global than domestic
Aftermath of the US Presidential elections: Dollar strength and EM outflowsMonetary policy path of major global central banks (US Fed, BoJ, ECB, BoE, PBoC)Unfolding of the Brexit processEconomic rebalancing in ChinaOthers: Commodity price volatility, shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy andstructural reforms
Key global FX themes
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1-Ja
n
15-J
an
29-J
an
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eb
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eb
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ar
25-M
ar
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pr
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p
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ep
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ct
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ct
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Indian rupee timeline
Brexit fears elevated
Japan introduces negative rates unexpectedly
Second round China devaluation
US dollar softness, global risk-off on EU referendum vote
US dollar softness, GST passed in Rajya Sabha
UK Brexit vote
RBI Governor announces departure
Equity outflows, hawkish Fed commentary
Reports of government's INR devaluation plan
USD strength post US election, positive US
data; low GDP concerns post demonet.
21
Trumpimpact triggers fresh volatility
Global financial markets have been roiled by a fresh phase of volatility since theelection of republican candidate Donald Trump as US President-electAs markets were caught off-guard, the response has been abrupt, with an initial phaseof risk-off followed by an equally rapid shift to risk-on sentiment.Markets perceive Trump’s victory as positive for US fiscal policy reforms and likelyinflationary, which in turn would allow the Fed to stick to its rate hike trajectory of 50bps in 2017USD has risen ~4.9% from pre-election trough to trade near 14-year highs, with marketperceived probability of a December rate hike having surged to 100%
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b
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pr
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ug
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ep
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Dollar index
JP Morgan EM FX Index (rhs)
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30
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90
110
130
Mex
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Ind
ones
ia
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US
Au
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lia
UK
Ch
ina
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
Change in 10-year bond yields (bps)
22
Case for US rate hike already strong
Trump’s election agenda aside, the case for an imminent rate hike in the US hasalready been building-up amid strengthening domestic macrosAs per the US Fed’s own admission, “job gains have been solid” and the “economy isoperating reasonably close to maximum employment”. US central bank’s preferredmeasure (core PCE inflation) has climbed to 1.7%, the highest since May 2015Latest Fed commentary suggests that Fed officials could be in consensus with regardto a December rate hikeOur base case is for a December rate hike, followed by a 50 bps rate hike in 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
3-months ago 1-month ago Current
December meeting February meeting March meeting
Probability of Fed lift-off for the next three Fed meetings
An increase in rates could “become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee's objectives”
“holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking”
US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, November 2016
23
BoP dynamics remain supportiveExports may have bottomed across categories
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5
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6
Sep-
16
Primary product exports (USD Bn)
Petroleum products (USD Bn; rhs)
Manufactured exports (USD Bn)
Export volumes are holding-up well
Salt, sulphur, lime and cement (22%) Edible oils (8%)Misc. mfd articles (17%) Fish and crustaceans (6%)Sugars and confectionary (29%) Paper and articles (7%)Footwear (16%) Tanning products and dyes (17%)Plastic and articles (27%) Leather and products (10%)Inorganic chemicals, compounds of precious metals (11%) Tobacoo and products (15%)
Edible vegetables and roots (25%) Project goods, some special uses Apparel and clothing articles (6%) Tin and articles (76%)Electrical machinery and equipment (7%) Optical instruments (14%)Articles of stone, plaster, cement etc (10%) Aluminium and articles (10%)Misc. chemical products (8%) Other veg. textile fibres (22%)
Year-to-date volume growth (%YoY) of major exports
Demonetization to shave-off non-oil imports further FII outflows a concern
USD BnJul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Apr-Oct
FY16Apr-Oct
FY17Exports (1) 21.7 21.5 22.9 23.5 155.2 155.6 %yoy -6.8 -0.3 4.6 9.6 -16.9 0.4Imports (2) = (3) + (4) 29.5 29.1 31.2 33.7 233.4 208.7 %yoy -19.0 -14.2 -2.5 8.1 -14.4 -10.3 Oil imports (3) 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.1 55.1 46.6 Non-oil non-gold imports 21.6 21.2 22.5 23.0 159.1 150.6 Gold imports 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.5 19.2 11.5Trade Balance = (1) - (2) -7.8 -7.6 -8.3 -10.2 -78.2 -53.1
India Trade Dynamics*
24
INR: YBL forecasts
USDINR Current Dec-16 Mar-17New forecast 68.7 68.5 68.0Old forecast - 67.5 67.0
Upside in the INR amid unexpected domestic and global events: Unanticipated USD strength post US election Domestic market volatility following demonetization
Macro-fundamentals remain unchanged: Strong domestic macros, policy credibility, comfortable domestic and external
sector ratios and policy credibility to continue to cushion INR from sharpdepreciation
INR to continue to outperform peers
Key future events to watch: Global: US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on December 13-14, 2016 Global: US President-elect Trump’s policy announcements in 1Q2017 Domestic: India Union Budget in 1Q2017
USDINR to reach 68 by Mar-2017, with an eventual move to 70 over the next 12 months
25
Key YBL ForecastsFY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
(YBL)Balance of
RiskLast Change in
Forecast
Annual Forecasts
Nominal GDP (%) 13.9 13.3 10.8 8.7 10.5 Neutral Down (Nov-16)
Real GDP (%) 5.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 6.7 Neutral Down (Nov-16)
CPI (%, Average) 9.9 9.4 6.0 4.9 4.8 Downside No Change
WPI (%, Average) 7.4 6.0 2.0 -2.5 3.5 Downside No Change
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.4 -4.0 -3.9 -3.5 Neutral No Change
Current Account (% of GDP) -4.7 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.5 Neutral Up (Nov-15)
BoP (USD bn) 4 16 61 18 12 Downside Down (Nov-16)
Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 (YBL)
Balance of Risk
Last Change in Forecast
Quarter End Forecasts
Repo Rate (%) 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.00 5.75 Neutral Down (Nov-16)
CRR (%) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Upside No Change
SLR (%) 21.5 21.25 21 20.75 20.50 Neutral No Change
10Y G-Sec Yield (%) (eop) 7.71 7.46 7.13 7.12 6.25 Neutral Down (Nov-16)
USDINR 67.5 66.9 67.0 68.5 68.0 Upside Up (Nov-16)
26
Thank You!
27
Appendix
28
Useful facts and figuresCash dominates the Indian economy 85% of currency in circulation in Rs500 &
Rs1000
Majority household savings in physical assets Household hold 13.5% of financial assets in cash
13.5%
41.3%
2.7%
18.3%
14.2%
3.6%6.2%
FY16: Household financial asset distribution
Currency
Bank deposits
Non- banking deposits
Life insurance fund
Provident and pension fund
Claims on Government
Shares & debentures
change in financial assets
40%
58%
2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Financial Savings Saving in physicalassets
Saving in the form ofgold & silver
ornaments
Share in household savings
2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%6%
7%8% 9% 9% 10%
12%
15%
19%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Swed
en SA
Braz
il
UK
Can
ada
Aus
tral
ia
Turk
ey
Kor
ea
Mex
ico
US
Sing
apor
e
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Switz
erla
nd
Indi
a
HK
Japa
n
Notes and coin in circulation outside banks as % of GDP85.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
F198
8
F199
0
F199
2
F199
4
F199
6
F199
8
F200
0
F200
2
F200
4
F200
6
F200
8
F201
0
F201
2
F201
4
F201
6
Share of Rs 500 and Rs1000 in currency in circulation
Rs1000 note was reintroduced in F2001 post 1978 demonetization
29
259
12078 83
4828 17 33
15 27
0
50
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250
300
Chi
na
Rus
sian
Mex
ico
Indi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Braz
il
Sout
h A
fric
a
Thai
land
Indo
nesi
a
Nig
eria
USDbn
10 12 1215
1821
25 2629 29 30
3437 38 41
48
05
101520253035404550
Japa
n
Chi
na
Sing
apor
e
HK
Indo
nesi
a
Indi
a
SA
Kor
ea
Mex
ico
Turk
ey
Mal
aysi
a
Bang
lade
sh
Braz
il
Phili
ppin
es
Rus
sian
Thai
land
World bank: Shadow Economy as % of GDP (2007)
Black money statisticsIndia’s shadow economy estimated at 21% of GDP Sectors vulnerable to unaccounted income
Extent of direct tax evasion Top 10 economies: Illicit Financial Outflows
Includes all legal market based production that is deliberately concealed from the government
Illicit financials outflows consists of mis-invoicing of trade and leakage from BoP (source Global Financial Integrity)
25.1%
143%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Personal income tax evasion as %of collected income tax
Corporate income tax evasion as% of collected income tax
F2010: Direct tax evasion (estimated by CBDT)
0 5 10
BPO sectorFinancial services
TradingManufacturing
Arts and Film IndustryCapital Markets
Bullion / commodity MarketProfessionals
Trusts, NGO and Charitable orgEducational Institutions
TobaccoMining
Realty sector
Sect
ors
vuln
erab
le to
una
ccou
nted
inco
me
Highly significant Marginally significantLeast significant
Source: Field survey of senior revenue officials (CBDT)
30
Electronic payments infrastructureIndia lags in cashless transactions Limited reach of ATMs machines
India has 13 bank branches per 100K adults India mobile subscription at 79 per 100 people
10.5 16.731.9
45.352.8
106.4
142.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
India China Mexico SouthAfrica
Turkey Russia Brazil
2015: Per capita number of transactions with payment instruments
1840 49 50 55 59 66 77
98127 129 130
161 173 185222
291
0
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300
Ind
ia
Swed
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Mex
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ore SA
Tu
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Swit
zerl
and
Jap
an
Bra
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UK
Au
stra
lia
US
Ru
ssia
Can
ada
Ko
rea
2014: Automated teller machines (ATMs) (per 100,000 adults)
8 9 11 13 15 17 20 21 23 24 2529
32 3437
46 47
05
101520253035404550
Chi
na
Sing
apor
e
SA
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Kor
ea
Turk
ey
Swed
en HK
Can
ada
UK
Aus
tral
ia US
Japa
n
Rus
sia
Switz
erla
nd
Braz
il
2014: Commercial bank branches (per 100,000 adults)
79 82 85 93 96118 118 125 126 127 130 133 142 146
159 160
229
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ind
ia
Can
ada
Mex
ico
Ch
ina
Tu
rkey U
S
Kor
ea
Jap
an UK
Bra
zil
Swed
en
Au
stra
lia
Swit
zerl
and
Sin
gap
ore
SA
Ru
ssia
HK
2015: Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
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YES BANK LimitedRegistered & Corporate Office: Nehru Centre, 9th Floor, Discovery of India, Worli, Mumbai 400018Tel: + 91 22 6669 9000; Fax: + 91 22 6669 9018
Northern Regional Corporate Office: 48 Nyaya Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi 110 021Tel: + 91 11 5556 9000; Fax: +91 11 5168 0144
BUSINESS ECONOMICS BANKING
Contacts
Name Designation Email Phone
Shubhada M. Rao Chief Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9198
Vivek Kumar Senior Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9059
Yuvika Oberoi Economist [email protected] (+91) 11 6656 9087
Garima Kapoor Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9030
Prakriti Shukla Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9016
Gaura Sengupta Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9792
Sanket Tandon Economist [email protected] (+91) 22 3372 9793
Swati Arora Economist [email protected] (+91) 11 6656 9087
Note: Data in this report has been sourced from CEIC, Bloomberg, GoI Budget Documents & Economic Survey, CGA, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, IMD, RBI, IMF, and YES BANK Limited
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DisclaimerIn the preparation of the material or information contained in this document, YES Bank Limited (“YES Bank”) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to have been obtained from reliable sources. However, YES Bank makes no warranty, representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does it assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information in this document.
The material or information in this document includes external data sources or references to third party, which are outside the realm or control of YES Bank. YES Bank takes no responsibility for the contents of those external data sources or such third party references. No third party will assume and direct or indirect liability, whose references have been provided in this document. It is the responsibility of the user or recipient of this document to make its/his/her own decisions or discretion about the accuracy, currency, reliability and correctness of information found in this document.
The opinion or expression made by YES Bank in this document, should not in any manner, be construed as a solicitation or endorsement of any offer for purchase or sale of any financial transaction, commodities, products of any financial instrument referred therein. All recipients of this document should carefully read, understand and investigate (either with or without professional advisors) into the risks arising out of or attached to such financial instrument or transaction or commodities or products before dealing or transacting in such financial instrument or transaction or commodities or products. All dealing or transaction entered upon by such recipients shall be entirely at their own risk and YES Bank shall not be responsible or liable for the same in any way whatsoever.
We have included statements, opinions, recommendations in this document which contain words or phrases such as "will", "expect" "should" and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that is or may be construed as “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially and substantially from those suggested by such forward looking statements. Such difference may arise due to various risks or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes in domestic and foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry. By their nature, certain market risk disclosures are only estimates and could be materially different from what actually occurs in the future. As a result, actual future gains or losses could materially differ from those that have been estimated herein.
Neither YES Bank nor any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees shall be liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to, direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material or the information therein, in any manner.
The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Any person subscribing to any product or financial instruments should do so on the basis of and after verifying the terms and conditions attached to such products or financial instruments, entirely at their own risk, costs and volition. Financial products and instruments are subject to market risks and yields may fluctuate depending on various factors affecting the capital or debt markets. Please note that past performance of financial products and instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance thereof.
YES Bank or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities mentioned herein and/or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments, products, commodities discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower in respect of such securities, financial instruments, products, commodities or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions.
No part of this material may be duplicated or copied in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of YES Bank. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of the information available in this document for commercial purpose or use is strictly prohibited unless prior written authorization is obtained from YES Bank.
This material is strictly confidential and privileged to the recipient. Use of the material is restricted to the recipient only. If you are not the intended recipient or if this document has been sent to you in error, please email us or return this document to the sender.
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About YES BANK
YES BANK, India’s fifth largest private sector Bank with a pan India presence across all 29 statesand 7 Union Territories of India, headquartered in the Lower Parel Innovation District (LPID) ofMumbai, is the outcome of the professional & entrepreneurial commitment of its Founder RanaKapoor and its top management team, to establish a high quality, customer centric, service driven,private Indian Bank catering to the future businesses of India.
YES BANK has adopted international best practices, the highest standards of service quality andoperational excellence, and offers comprehensive banking and financial solutions to all its valuedcustomers.
YES BANK has a knowledge driven approach to banking, and offers a superior customerexperience for its retail, corporate and emerging corporate banking clients. YES BANK is steadilyevolving as the Professionals’ Bank of India with the long term mission of “Building the BestQuality Bank of the World in India” by 2020.