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IndependentPeerReviewReportHenrikSparholt

Dr.Sc.MSc.

Center for Independent Experts (CIE) Review of the Eastern Bering Sea

Walleye pollock stock assessment

HenrikSparholtDr.Sc.MSc.Fredsvej8a,2840Holte,Denmarkhenrik.sparholt@gmail.com

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ExecutiveSummary

The Eastern Bering Sea Walleye pollock stock assessment is very data rich. It uses a “tailor”-mademathematical/statistical model of a very high quality. The assessment is a high quality basis for thescientificadviceonmanagementofthestock.

Thedatasituationisuniqueonaglobalscale,becausealmostallcommercialcatchhaulsaresampled(bytwoobserversonboard).Thus,wehaveanalmostexactknowledgeofthecatch.ThePanelwasconsideringwhetheranold-fashionedVPAinthisparticularcasewouldactuallybeappropriate.

The newweight-at-agemodel put forward by the assessment teamwas basically sound, but the Panelquestioned theprecise structure of it, as it resulted in shrinking fish by cohort from2014 (the last datayear) to 2015 (the first forecast year) for themost important age groups in the fishery. This suggestedshrinkageby ageby themodelwasdue tohigh recentweight-at–ages (in the years up to and including2014)and the forecastedones for2015using themeanyeareffect for theentire time series. Also, theforecastedweight-at-agesfor2016and2017werelowcomparedtothemostrecentyears.Itissuggestedtomodelweightincrementsfromoneyeartothenext(bycohort)insteadofjustweight.

The stock definition seems largely right, although strong year classes seem (based on the bottom trawlsurveydata)nowandthentoenterthestockareagraduallyoverseveralyears,whichmightindicatethattheyaredistributedoutsidethestockareaintheirearlyages.Alsothestruggleinsomeyears(e.g.2011)ofthecommercialfleettofindthefishmightindicatethattherestillaresomeissueswithstockdefinition.AsmallpartofthestockisintheRussianareaandfromapurelybiologicalpointofviewshouldbeincluded.

Thebottomtrawlsurveyandtheacousticsurveyaretreatedastwoseparateindicesinthemodel.Itmightbeuseful tomergethemsomehow.Neitherof themarecoveringthewatercolumncompletely,but inapropercombinationtheymight.

The model is built over many years of elaborations, and maybe therefore, not all parts of it werecompletelyandpreciselydescribedintheprovideddocuments.

As a medium-term future improvement of the assessment, it might be fruitful to include cannibalismexplicitlyinthemodel.Forexample,justasimplerelationshipbetweenperhapsage3+biomassandnaturalmortalitybyages0,1and2wouldgiveamorepreciserecruitmentseries,whichcouldbeusedtoanalyzeclimate effects on recruitment. Disentangling cannibalism from other factors influencing recruitment isregardedasuseful.Thismightalsoimprovethestock-recruitmentmodelintheassessment.

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BackgroundTheEasternBeringSeapollockstockisoneoftheworld’sbigcommercialfishstocks,withstablecatchesofaround1.2milliontonnesperyearoverthepasttwodecades.Itismanagedwithalowfishingpressuretotakespecialaccountofsalmonbycatchesandofprovidingfoodforseamammals.The stock assessment andmanagementwas last reviewed in 2010. The review then recommended thatfuturereviewsbemorefocusedonspecific issuesratherthanbroadbrushreviewofmultipletopics.Thistime,theToRsforthereviewwerefocusedonspecificissues(seeToRsinAppendix2).

DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivitiesTheroleofthereviewerissetoutintheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)StatementofWork,attachedhere in Appendix 2, Attachment A. All three CIE reviewerswere taskedwith producing an independentreport.

ThemeetingofthereviewwaschairedbyAnneHollowed.JimIanelliwastheleadscientist.ItwasheldattheAlaskaFisheriesScienceCenter(AFSC)atSandyPointinSeattle,WAfromMay16-19,2016.PriortothismeetingtheCIEreviewerswereprovidedwithalistofaround40papersandreports,thatrepresentedthemainworkinregardstotheassessmentoftheEasternBeringSeapollock.Mostofthesewerepreviouslypublishedpapersalthoughsomewerenew,beingeitherinpressorinreview.Someofthedocumentswereprovidedduringthemeeting.Anumberofpresentationsweregivenatthefirsttwodaysofthemeeting.ThesewerefocusedontheissuesmentionedintheToRsandwere:

• Introduction• Background• ObserverProgram• Bottomtrawlsurvey• Acoustic-trawlsurveyandAVO• Geostatisticalapplicationsofsurveydata• Ageandgrowth• Councilandmanagementprocess• Ecosystemmodeling• Assessmentoverview• Stockstructure• Harveststrategy

ThePanelaskedquestionsanddiscussedeachofthese inrelationtotheToRs.Thethirdandfourthdaysweredevotedtonewassessmentrunsandspecifictopicsdiscussed.Newanalysesweredoneatthereviewmeeting:

1. Meanage-at-lengthbyarea,NWvsSE,forbottomtrawlsurveydatatoseeifoneoverallALKisok;2. Standarddeviationofthenormalizedresiduals(SDNR)valueswerelookedatforsomealternative

modelruns;3. Overfittingselectivitywithhundredsofparameterswastestedbybootstrappingbasicdatausedto

constructcatchinnumbers-at-ageinordertoisolateobservationerrorandseeiftheprocesserrorlefthadrealisticvalues;

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4. Mwasestimatedwithinthemodel(constantforage3andolder)anditshowedamuchlowerM(0.15vs0.30usedinthecoremodel).ForBogolofPollack–anunexploitedstocksince1992–Z(andthusM)isestimatedtobe0.299;and

5. Re-weightingwasanalysedbythePanel.TheweightingusedinthecoremodelisfairlyreasonablemaybewithatendencythatBTSandfisherieswereunderweightedeachbyafactorofabout2andacousticsurveyoverweighedbeafactorofabout2.

Alldiscussionswereconductedinafruitful,open,directandrespectfulway.

SummaryofFindingsforeachToR

TermsofReferencefortheEBSpollockCIEreview:

1. Evaluation,findings,andrecommendationsonqualityofinputdataandmethodsusedtoprocessthemforinclusionintheassessment.Inparticular:

a. Istheuseoftheindexofacousticbackscatterfromopportunistic(AVO)usedappropriately?

b. Ismodelingobservednumbersfromsurveysappropriate?

c. Howshoulddataonmeanbodymassatagebebestusedformodelprojections?

d. Howshouldthevariousdatasetsbeweighted?

2. Evaluateandproviderecommendationsonmodelstructure,assumptions,andestimationproceduresusestoassessstockstatusandcondition.Inparticular:

a. Aretheselectivityapproachesusedforsurveysandfisheryappropriate?

b. Howshouldtrans-boundaryaspectsoftheresourcebehandled?

c. Whatconstraints,ifany,shouldbeplacedonsurveycatchability?

d. Howshouldmodelprojectionalternativesbeevaluated/presented?

e. Anythingelseonwhichthereviewerscaretocomment.

3. EvaluateandproviderecommendationsonharvestrecommendationsprovidedbytheNPFMCTiersysteminthecontextofthe2,000,000tBSAIcapandrealizedmanagementrecommendations

4. Evaluatetheextentthatecosystemdataarepresentlyincludedintheassessmentandrecommendhowandwhereimprovementscanbemade.

ToR1

Thescientistsinvolvedaretobecommendedforaveryclearassessmentreportwithveryillustrativegraphicsthatmadeiteasyforthereviewerstolearnthemainfeaturesoftheassessment.Detailsoftheassessmentmodelweremainlygiveninappendixesandwerenotalwaysfullycorrectcomparedtotheactualcodeoftheprogramused(basedimplicitlyondeductionandverbalstatementsbytheexpertsbehindit-thecodeitselfwasnotmadeavailabletothePanel).Generally,theinputdataforthisassessmentareverywellsampled.Thedataareuniqueonaglobalscaleinthatthereisanalmost100%samplingofthecommercialcatch,bythetwoobserversonboardalmosteveryfishingtrip.TheassumptionofperfectknowledgeofthecommercialcatchintheoldfashionedVPAtypeanalysismightactuallybealmostfulfilledinthisassessment.ThePaneldiscussedwhetheritwasstill

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appropriatetouseprocesserrorsinthecommercialcatchdatainthiscase,butwithoutcomingtoafirmconclusion.Agedeterminationandsubsampling,however,stillyieldasmallobservationerror.Themanyparametersusedinthepresentmodelforselectivity,whichmightbeseenasanover-parametrization,mightbeappropriateinthisparticularassessment.Thereweresomeuncertaintiesaboutthetimeoftheyearrepresentedintheweight-at-ageinthestockdata,whetheritwasatJanuary1statspawningtimeorasameanduringtheyear.WhenthesearemultipliedwithstocknumbersatJanuary1st,atspawningtime,orinthemid-yearitmatters.Ideally,thesetwotypesofdatashouldmatcheachotherwhencombined.Thisis,however,acommonpatterninfishstockassessmentingeneral.Ideally,threematricesofweight-at-ageshouldcomprisetheinputdatainassessmentmodels:1)w-at-ageinthestockatJanuary1st,2)w-at-ageinthematurestockatspawningtime,and3)w-at-ageduringtheyearinthecommercialcatch.ALKsareusedbysubareaforcommercialcatch,butnotforthebottomtrawlsurvey.Thisseemsinconsistent.Someanalysesweredonewiththesurveydata,whichshowedthataverageage-at-lengthinthesurveydifferbetweentheNWandtheSEarea.Themeanage-at-lengthwereabout0.25yearhigherintheNWthanintheSEareas.Thus,itwouldseemprudenttouseALKsbysubareainsteadofacombinedALKforthetotalareaforthebottomtrawlsurveydata.Thisissuemightalsobeimportantforfuturematurity-at-ageestimations.Theindexofacousticbackscatterfromopportunisticvessels(AVO)isusedappropriately.Thereisagoodcorrelationwiththeacousticsurvey,biomass-wise.Theobjectfunctionisdescribedascomparingnumbers.However,inthecodeitisbiomass,whichisalsothebestapproach.ThenewdensitydependentcorrectiontothecatchabilityintheBTSseemstohavelittleimplicationsforthemodeloutput,onlyafewpercentchangestokeyparameters.However,theanalysisbehinditseemsverysensible,andeffectsofdensitydependenceseemtoclearlybethere.Maybethisisararecasewhereweshouldgoforamodelsimplerthanourknowledgeallowsfor–becausetheknowledgeseemsnottomatterenoughtojustifythecomplication.However,thecorrectionsaredoneoutsidetheassessmentmodel,andthusdonotdemandmoreparameterstobeestimatedbythemodel.Itimprovesthesurveybiomassindex,andthatisvaluableforthemanyotherwaysthesesurveysareusedthaninassessments,e.g.incatchcurvesanalysis.Theacousticsurveyhasadeadzoneofabout0.5mabovetheseafloor.TheBTStrawlhasanetopeningofabout3m,butduetothedivingofpollockwhenherded,itseemstocatchthepollockavailableinthewatercolumnfromtheseafloorand15mup.Thesetwoindicesareusedasseparateindices.Itmightbeusefultomergetheseindicessothattheytogethercoverthetotalwatercolumn,beforeputtingthemintothemodel.Thiswillreducethenoiseinthedataduetochangesintheannualmeandistributionofpollockinthewatercolumn.Theremightbeanadvantageinusingbiomassinsteadofnumbersfromtheacousticsurveyinthemodel,becauseitwouldavoidtoomuchtransformationbackandforthbetweenbiomassandnumbers.Eachtransformationaddsnoisetothemodeloutput.Thiscouldbeexaminedinthefuture.Theageingmethodsappliedseemfine.Agreementinageingbetweenreadersseemstobegoodforacousticsurveysandforcommercialcatches.Foroldfish,thebottomtrawlsurveyagedataseemmoreuncertain.Thiscouldbebecausethetrawlsurveygoesintothe“coolpool”areaswithmaybemorecomplicatedgrowthpatterns,andthusotolithreadabilityproblems.Variabilityofdeterminingthefirstwinterringwasmentionedasaproblem.Thiscouldbeinvestigatedbylookingattheotolithofage1fishcaughtatsummertimewheretheyeasilycanbeidentifiedbytheirlength.

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Themodelledyearandcohorteffectonweight-at-ageseemsbasicallytobeagoodapproach.However,probablyduetogoodgrowthconditioninrecentyearstheweight-at-ageinrecentyearswerehigh.Forthepredictionyears2015and2016,thisgaveproblemsbecausetheweight-at-ageestimatesfortheseyearsusethemeanyeareffectfromthewholetimeseriesandthisresultedinfishshrinkinginsizefrom2014to2015/2016bycohort,forthemostfishedagegroups.ThePanelsuggestedthatitwouldlikelyimprovethemodelledweight-at-ageifweightincrementsfromoneyeartothenext(bycohort)wasmodelledratherthantotalweight.Densitydependentgrowthisnormalinfishpopulationsandthisishowecosystemsgenerallyfunction.Inthematerialpresented,therearecohorteffectsindicatingdensitydependenteffect,becauseabundantyearclasseshavegenerallylowweight.However,theyeareffectseemstonotberelatedtostockbiomass,soprobablysomeenvironmentalfactorshaveover-shadowedthedensitydependenteffectsonastocklevel.Allthismightbelookedatfurtherinthefuture.Itmighthaveimplicationsforlong-termsimulations,andthusFmsycalculations.Aconstantbyyearmaturity-at-ageogiveisused.Timeseriesofmaturity-at-agewouldbeusefultobuildupinordertoimprovetheannualspawningstockbiomassestimateandtolinkthistofeedingconditionanddensitydependenteffectsrelatedtogrowth.TheweightingofthevariousdatainputtothemodelwasanalyzedbythePanel.Itwasfoundthattheweightingusedintheassessmentisfairlyreasonable,maybewithatendencythatBTSandfisherieswereunderweightedeachbyafactorofabout2andacousticsurveyoverweighedbyafactorofabout2.

Itwasmentionedthatnaturalmortalitymaybeisincreasingforolderfish(spawningmortalitylikeforNorwegianSpringSpawningherringfromBeverton’soldanalysis),andthecatchcurvesfromsurveyscouldtentativelyindicatethatoccurrence,suchthatthismightbethecaseforthisstock.

ToR2

Thepresentassessmentmodelhasbeenaroundforseveralyears,andvarioussmallchangeshavebeenmadeduringthattime.Thesearenotalwayswelldescribedinthedocumentationpresented.Selectivityisallowedtobeveryflexiblewithmanyparametersinvolved.Withsomanyselectivityparametersfitted,themodelmightberegardedclosetoaVPAtypemodel,withthecatch-at-ageregardedasabsolutelycorrectdata.Overfittingmightbeanissue.Itis,however,notthenumberofparametersthatmatters,butthe“effective”numberofparameters.AlotofFswithlowCVsdoesnotinfluencetheestimationofotherparameters.Withanalmostcompletesamplingofthehaulsofthecommercialfishery,maybeitisactuallyappropriatetoproceedwithanoldfashionedVPAtypeapproach.However,therestillarethesubsamplingandagedeterminationuncertainties,whichmayleadtoatleastasmallobservationerror.Inconclusion,acloseranalysisisneededtodetermineiftheselectivitysubmodelcanbeimproved.However,thecurrentoneseemstoworkquitewell,sothepotentialforafurtherimprovementtotheoverallmodelperformancemightbelimited.Thetrans-boundaryaspectsoftheresourcewiththestockclearlyoccupyingpartlyRussianareaswouldbegoodtoimprove.HadtherebeennointernationalUSA-Russiaissue,thesurveyswouldprobablyhaveexpandedsomewhatintotheRussianzone,becausethesurveydataforthefewyearswheretheRussianareawascoveredshowedthatthisisanaturalpartofthedistributionareaofthestock.ThefactthattheRussianpartisnotincludedis,however,notamajorproblemforUSA,becauseabout90%ofthestockisin

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USAterritory.ItismoreofaproblemforRussia,wheresometimesonly25%ofthe“sub-stock”isintheRussianarea.Obviously,themorecooperationwithRussiaonsurveys,assessment,andmanagementofthisstock,thebetter.Thesurveycatchabilitybyageorselectivitywasforcedtobesigmoidaslargeandoldindividualswereassumedtobewellavailabletothetrawlgearanddistributedintheareacoveredbythesurvey.Incaseonewouldliketoestimatenaturalmortality,aswasdoneinsometestrunsmadeatthepresentmeeting,itisveryimportanttohaveasigmoidcurveandnot“allow”themodeltogoforadomeshapedselectioncurve.However,thisisaclassicprobleminmodellingfishpopulationthatprobablyoldexperiencedandfastswimmingindividualshavelowercatchabilitythanotherindividuals,butallowingmodelstoestimatethisgenerallymakethemodels“drift”towardsverylowcatchabilitiesoftheseoldfish,andthuscreatealotofthem(so-called“paperfish”)inthevirtualstock.Whetherthesemanyoldfishreallyexistoutthereintheseaornotisdifficulttodetermine,becauseduetothelowcatchabilityweshouldofcoursenotseetheminthecatches.Sotheproblemboilsdowntowhetheronebelievesthereisahiddenpoolofoldfishintheseaornot.Aswegetmoreandmoreinformationfromtheseabyunderwatercameras,etc.andstill,tomyknowledge,haveneverseensuchhiddenpoolsofoldfishforanyofthemajorcommercialstocksinthetemperateandborealclimatezone,thegeneraltendencyinfisheriesscienceistorejectthathypothesis.Thus,thecurrentmodelwithitssigmoidselectivitycurvelivesuptothatnotion.ThePanelsawsomepotentialinfutureanalysisofconsideringamulti-fleetapproachandaselectivitybyseason(AandB)forimprovingthecommercialfisheryselectivitypartofthemodel.Themodelprojectionspresentedvariousalternatives.ManyofthesewerebasedondemandsfromthemanagementadviceguidelinesandprobablynotupthePaneltoevaluate.Thediagramtypeapproachusedforthepresentationofthealternativesseemsveryusefulandgaveaquickandclearimpressionoftheresults,probablyeasyformanagerstoworkwith.AccordingtothematerialpresentedtothePanel,cannibalismisverypronounced.MSVPArunsareavailableintheliteratureforthisstock.Naturalmortality(M)byageandyearareavailable.Theseseemtoprovideusefulknowledge,whichcouldbedealtwithspecificallyintheassessment.OnewayofdoingthisistolinkpredationMbyageandyeartothepollockspawningstockbiomass,asdoneforBalticcod(FritzKöster,DTUAQUA,isakeyscientistinthiswork).ThisrelationshipshouldthenbeusedwhenmakinglongtermforecaststoestimateFmsyandBmsy.TheS-RmodelmightneedtoberevisedanditwouldseemusefultoconsiderRatthepre-cannibalismlifestage(sayat5cmlength).Inthatway,climateandenvironmentalinfluenceonRcanbedisentangledfromcannibalism.ThepresentS-RmodelmixestheeffectfromcannibalismwithanyotherfactorinfluencingR.ThismightalsobeawayofseeingclimaticinfluenceonRmoreclearlythanthepresentanalysispresentedtothePanel.FishingmortalityisintheassessmentgivenasF3-8.Itwasdiscussedwhetheritwouldbemoreappropriatewithanotherwayofexpressingfishingpressure.OnesuggestioncouldbetouseF5-9asFonage3and4areverysmallinrecentyears,andthusnotreallyrecruitedtothefishery.Incaseslikethiswherethereisnojuvenilefishery,onecouldalsoconsidercatch(inweight)dividedbyspawningstockbiomass.Therearealsomoresophisticatedapproachesaroundwhichcouldbelookedinto. Thereisaquitestrongretrospectivepatternintherecentyear’sassessments.

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Thisretrospectivepatternwasconsistentwiththestrong2008yearclass(y.c.)comingintothestockstrongerandstrongerbyyear,asmentionedunderthestockdefinitionsectionabove.This2008y.c.isexpectedtoinfluencetheassessmentonlytoalesserextentinthefuture.ThereweresomediscussionsontheuseanddefinitionofthetermB100%andwhyitwasdifferentfromB0.ThereasonforthedifferencewasbecauseB100%isbasedonaveragerecruitmentobservedinthepast,whileB0isbasedonrecruitmentfromtheS-Rmodel.ThePanelquestionedthisdefinitionofB100%(orBX%forthatmatter),asitseemstobeanalready“occupied”termandinthenormaldefinitionbeingequaltoB0.

TobaseanS-Rmodelestimationonthedataforonlyasinglestockisgenerallydangerous,becauseoftenthereisnotmuchinformationfromagivenstocktodeterminewhetheritisaB&H,Ricker,orShepherdtypecurve.Inthecaseofwalleyepollock,thereissomeindicationinthedatathatRisreducedathighSSBs,butthereisalsoalotofnoiseinthedata.Itisgenerallygoodto“borrow”knowledgefromotherstockslikedoneinmeta-analysisinsomeofthefamouspapersbyRamMyers,andasdonebyICESinitstechnicalguidelinestogoodpracticeinchoosingtheS-Rmodelsinassessments.Inthepresentassessment,apriorforsteepnesshasbeenapplied.However,ithasbeenassumedthatthecurveisaRickeroneandsteepnessisnotnormallydefinedforRickercurves.ItwasnotcompletelycleartothePanelwhatdefinitionofsteepnesswasusedinthepresentassessment.Itwasneitherveryclearwheretheexactpriorvaluewasoriginationfrom.ThecurrentRickerpriorusedseemsmoreasapenaltytopreventatoodomedshapedS-Rcurve,anditsbasiswasjustifiedinanadmittedslightlycircularprocesslookingathowitperformswiththecurrentdata.

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Arunwithoutthispriorwaspresentedintheassessmentreport.ThisresultedinmuchhigherFMSYvalues,nearanFSPRofaboutF18%,avalueconsiderablyhigherthanthedefaultproxyofF35%.Obviously,thisissueisofparamountimportancetotheadvicegiven,becauseitinfluencesthebiologicalreferencepointsusedintheadvice.However,theresultantS-Rmodelusedseemsquitesensible,giventhedataandknowledgeavailable.ThecriticalissueofhowmuchrecruitmentreducesathighSSBsiswellbalanced(partlysubjectively)againstthegenerallackofclearevidenceforanymarinefishstock(tomyknowledge)ofasubstantialRickertypeformoftheS-Rcurve.ThesuggestionaboveofincludingcannibalismdirectlyintotheassessmentandlookatRforstagespriortocannibalismmightrevealmoreclearlywhattheS-Rmodelshouldbe,andthusresolvesomeofthecurrentproblemswiththeuncertaintyintheS-Rmodel.

ToR3

ANPFMCTiersystemconsiderswhetherareliablepdfofFmsyisavailableornot.Inordertobeatier1stock,thispdfneedstobeavailable.ThePanelwasnotclearonwhat“reliable”preciselymeansinthiscontext.TheassessmentdidprovideapdfofFmsy,butitsreliabilitywasquestionedduetotheuncertaintyoftheS-Rmodelandthelackofcannibalismincluded(whichcouldberegardedasapartoftheS-Rmodeling).Densitydependentgrowth,aswellastheuncertaintyaboutresidualnaturalmortality,mightfurtherputthereliabilityofthepdfintoquestion.Theassessmentreportpresentsprojectionscorrespondingtotheneedsforatier3stock.Theseseemtobeappropriateanddonecorrectly,giventheassessmentmodel.Hereitmightbeworthnotingthatduetotheweight-at-agesub-modelissuesmentionedabove,thebiomassesforecastedforbothyieldandstockisprobablyunderestimated.

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ToR4

Sealionsandsalmonby-catcharetakenintoaccountinthemanagementofthispollockstock.Therefore,theexploitationissubstantiallylowerthanthatwhichresultsinmaximumsustainableyield.Itmightbeinterestingformanagerstoseethe“cost”intermsofforegoneyieldduetothisdeliberate“under-exploitation”.

Generally,thefisheryisavery“clean”fishery,withverylowby-catches.Salmonseemstobetheonlyproblem,becauseevenasmallby-catchinthepercentageofthepollockcatchmightmeanquiteasubstantialtakecomparedtothestocksizeofsalmon.Thepeakby-catchofChinooksalmonhasbeen7%oftheruntothecoastalwestAlaskanrivers,butithasbeenbelow2%since2011.Thiswouldprobably,inmostpartsoftheworld,seemasaverylowimpactcomparedtothemagnitudeofthepollockfisheryintheEastBeringSeaecosystem,butitisofcourseapoliticalissueandnotscientificone.

ThispollockstockhasthehighestintensityofcannibalismIhaveeverseenforamarinefishstock.Itisstatedinthematerialprovidedthatcannibalismis2.5–5milliontperyear,andthatitconstitutesabout1/3ofthefoodconsumptionofpollock.Atlanticcodisknownforahighintensityofcannibalism,butcannibalismisonlyrarelyabove1/20ofthefoodconsumptionofcod.Clearly,forpollockcannibalismmustbeamajorpopulationregulatorymechanismintheEastBeringSeaecosystem.

ThetimeseriesofEuphausiids,animportantfooditemforpollock,showsapeakin2009andthiscoincidesroughlywithalowstocksizeofpollockatthesametime.Thismightindicateatop-downinfluence,andmightthuscontributetotheunderstandingofthedensitydependenceingrowthofpollock.ThiswasnotfurtherconsideredinthematerialpresentedtothePanel.Intheassessmentreport,itisspeculatedthatthishighEuphausiidsabundancein2009couldbethereasonforthelarge2008yearclassofpollock,asthisyearclasswouldhaveplentyoffood.Thereisnotmuchdatatosubstantiatethisnotion.TheBTStimeserieskeepsincreasingtheestimateofthesizeofthisy.c.evenaftertheEuphausiidabundancehasreturnedtonormallevels,andthereisnoinformationpresentedaboutpreciselyatwhichlifestagethepollockyearclassstrengthnormallyisdetermined.

ConclusionsandRecommendationsinaccordancewiththeToRs. The Eastern Bering Sea Walleye pollock stock assessment is very data rich. It uses a “tailor”-mademathematical/statistical model of a very high quality. The assessment is a high quality basis for thescientificadviceonmanagementofthestock.

The only point which seems to need a careful consideration at this point in time is the weight-at-agepredictionfor2015,2016and2017.

Therearesome“lowhangingfruits”whichseemworthpursuinginthecomingfewyears,aroundthestock-recruitment model and incorporation of cannibalism explicitly in the modelling and in the forecasting.Disentanglingcannibalismfromenvironmentalandclimateeffectsonrecruitmentholdthemostpotentialforimprovingknowledgeofthestockandtheecosystemfunctioning.

A longer term topic of importance relates to density-dependent growth. The observed lower growth ofstrongyearclassesandtheinverserelationshipbetweenpollockstocksizeandabundanceofEuphausiids,indicatescopeforimprovementsoftheassessment.Buildingupatimeseriesofmaturityatagetorevealdensitydependencecouldaddknowledgetotheecosystemfunctioning.

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Themeetingwasconductedinaveryfruitful,open,direct,andrespectfulway.

Thematerialpresentedbothverballyatthemeetingandintheprovideddocumentswereveryclearandofaveryhighquality.Theonlyslightexceptionbeingthetechnicaldescriptionofthemodel,whichwasnotinall parts complete and precise. Technical parts were quite extensively discussed at the meeting andpotentialissuesresolvedinasatisfactoryway.

TheNMFSreviewprocess

The NMFS review process is very well structured and effective. The documents provided and thepresentationgivenwereofaveryhighquality.ThekeyscientistsinvolvedintheassessmentwereavailableandcouldanswerthequestionsputforwardbythePaneltoaverysatisfactorylevel.ItwasgoodthattheToRswerefocusedonspecificissues.Thishelpedthediscussionsonnewandimportantaspects,andmeantthatthePanelwasabletogettothe“bottom”oftheissues.Atthesametime,itdidnotpreventthePaneltoraiseotherissuesthatwereconsideredimportant.

The only area where I see a potential need for improvement is regarding the forecast scenarios andmanagement advisory part. The guidelines for this were very complex, a bit opaque, and not veryextensivelydescribedintheSummaryreportorinthedocumentsprovided.Thispartofthesciencebasisofthemanagementshouldprobablyhaveareviewofitsown,andnotbepartofaspecificstockassessment.Alternatively, it could be made clearer to review Panels for individual stock assessments, where theirresponsibilityintermsofreviewendsand“others”takeover.

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Appendix 1: Bibliography of materials provided for review

DraftagendaEBSpollock2015assessmentAppendix1.1:StockstructureofEBSpollockpresentedinSeptember2015

Overview:HarvestSpecificationandInseasonManagement

Other backgrounddocumentsDec2015SSCMinutes onEBSpollock(Startsonpage9)

Nov2015PlanTeamMinutes onEBSpollock(butseetheirIntroductiontoSAFEreportfortheirsummary)

SAFEreportincluding otherchapters/stocksfrompastassessments

2015RecruitmentProcessesCIEreviewDrinkwater,Fernandes,Simmonds, Smith

Management, observerprogram,etcNorth Pacificobserverprogram’s 2016ObserverSamplingManual.

Cahalan,J.,J.Gasper,and J.Mondragon. 2014.Catchsamplingandestimation inthefederal

groundfishfisheriesoffAlaska,2015edition.U.S.Dep.Commer.,NOAATech.Memo.NMFS-AFSC-286,46p.Documentavailableonline

Faunce,C.,J.Cahalan,J.Gasper,T.A’mar, S.Lowe, F.Wallace, andR.Webster.2014.

Deploymentperformancereviewofthe2013North PacificGroundfish andHalibutObserverProgram.U.S.Dep.Commer.,NOAATech.Memo. NMFS-AFSC-281,74p.Documentavailableonline

Hulson, P.F.,Miller,S.E.,Ianelli,J.N.,Quinn, T.J.,&Jech, J.M.(2011).Includingmark–recapture

dataintoaspatialage-structuredmodel:walleyepollock(Theragrachalcogramma)intheeasternBeringSea.Canadian Journal ofFisheriesandAquatic Sciences,68(9),1625–1634.doi:10.1139/f2011-060

Hulson, P.F.,Ii,T. J.Q.,Hanselman,D.H.,&Ianelli,J.N.(2013).SpatialmodelingofBering Seawalleyepollockwithintegratedage-structured assessmentmodelsinachangingenvironment, 1416(July),1402–1416.

Ianelli,J.N.2005.AssessmentandFisheriesManagementofEasternBering SeaWalleyepollock: isSustainability LuckBulletin ofMarineScience,Volume 76,Number 2,April 2005,pp.321-336(16)

Ianelli,J.,Hollowed, A.,Haynie,A.C.,Mueter,F.J.,&Bond,N.A.(2011).Evaluating

managementstrategiesforeasternBering Seawalleyepollock(Theragrachalcogramma)inachangingenvironment. ICESJournalof…,(2010),1–8.doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr010

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Quinn, T.J.II, J.N.Ianelli,S.X.Cadrin,V.Wespestad,andS.J.Barbeaux.2011.Reportonaworkshop onspatialstructureanddynamicsofwalleyepollockintheBering Sea.AFSCProcessedRep.2011-04,46p.AlaskaFish.Sci.Cent.,NOAA,Natl.Mar. Fish.Serv.,7600SandPointWayNE,SeattleWA98115.

NPFMCFisheriesmanagementplan.http://www.fakr.noaa.gov/npfmc/fmp/bsai/BSAI.pdf

SurveydocumentsHonkalehto, T.,andA.McCarthy.2015.Resultsoftheacoustic-trawlsurveyofwalleyepollock

(Gaduschalcogrammus)ontheU.S.and RussianBering SeaShelf inJune-August 2014(DY1407).AFSCProcessedRep.2015-07,63p.AlaskaFish.Sci.Cent.,NOAA,Natl. Mar.Fish.Serv.,7600SandPointWayNE,SeattleWA98115.http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/Publications/ProcRpt/PR2015-07.pdf

Kotwicki,S.,Lauth,R.R.,Detecting temporal trendsandenvironmentally-drivenchangesinthespatialdistributionofbottom fishesandcrabsontheeasternBering....Deep-SeaRes.II(2013),http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.017i

Kotwicki,S.,Martin,M.H.,&Laman,E.A.(2011).Improvingareasweptestimatesfrom

bottomtrawlsurveys.FisheriesResearch,110(1), 198–206.doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.04.007

Kotwicki,S.,Martin,M.H.,&Laman, E.A.(2011).Improving areasweptestimatesfrom

bottomtrawlsurveys.FisheriesResearch,110(1), 198–206.doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.04.007

Honkalehto,T.,P.H.Ressler,R.H. Towler, andC.D.Wilson. 2011.Usingacousticdata fromfishing

vessels to estimate walleye pollock (Theragrachalcogramma) abundance intheeasternBering Sea.Can.J.Fish.Aquat. Sci.68:1231–1242.

Honkalehto,T.,P.H.Ressler,S.C.Stienessen,Z.Berkowitz,R.H.Towler,A.L.McCarthy,andR.R.Lauth.

2014.AcousticVessel-of-Opportunity (AVO)indexformidwater BeringSeawalleyepollock,2012-2013. AFSCProcessedRep.2014-04,19p.AlaskaFish.Sci.Cent.,NOAA,Natl.Mar. Fish.Serv.,7600SandPoint WayNE,SeattleWA98115.Available online

Honkalehto,T.,N.Williamson,D.Jones,A.McCarthy, andD.McKelvey. 2009.ResultsoftheEcho

Integration-TrawlSurveyofWalleyepollock(Theragrachalcogramma)ontheU.S.andRussianBering SeaShelf inJuneandJuly2008.U.S.Dep.Commer.,NOAATech.Memo.NMFS-AFSC-194.http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/Publications/AFSC-TM/NOAA-TM-AFSC-194.pdf .

Kotwicki,S.,DeRobertis,A.,Ianelli, J.N.,Punt,A.E.,Horne, J.K.,&Jech,J.M.(2013).

Combiningbottomtrawlandacousticdatatomodelacousticdeadzonecorrectionandbottomtrawlefficiencyparametersforsemipelagic species.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquatic Sciences,70(2),208–219.doi:10.1139/cjfas-2012-0321

Kotwicki,S.,Ianelli, J.,&Punt,A.(2014).Correctingdensity-dependenteffectsinabundance

estimatesfrombottom-trawlsurveys.ICESJournalofMarineScience….Retrievedfromhttp://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/01/09/icesjms.fst208.short

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Kotwicki,S.,Horne, J.K.,Punt,A.E.,&Ianelli,J.N.(2015).Factorsaffecting theavailabilityofwalleyepollocktoacousticandbottomtrawlsurveygear.ICESJournalofMarineScience,72(5),1425–1439.Kotwickietal2015

Kotwicki,S.,T.W.Buckley,T.Honkalehto, andG.Walters.2005.Variationinthedistributionof

walleyepollock(Theragrachalcogramma)withtemperatureandimplicationsforseasonalmigration.Fish.Bull103:574–587.

Lauth,R.R.2013.Resultsofthe2012 easternBeringSeacontinentalshelfbottomtrawlsurveyofgroundfish andinvertebrateresources.

vonSzalayPG,SomertonDA,KotwickiS.2007.Correlating trawlandacousticdataintheEastern

BeringSea:Afirststeptoward improving biomassestimatesofwalleyepollock(Theragrachalcogramma)andPacificcod(Gadusmacrocephalus)?FisheriesResearch86(1)77-83.

Walline, P.D.2007.GeostatisticalsimulationsofeasternBering Seawalleyepollockspatial

distributions,toestimatesamplingprecision.ICESJ.Mar. Sci.64:559-569.

Williamson,N.,andJ.Traynor. 1996.Applicationofaone-dimensional geostatisticalprocedure tofisheriesacousticsurveysofAlaskanpollock.ICESJ.Mar. Sci.53:423-428.

Woillez,M.,Walline, P.D.,Ianelli, J.N.,Dorn, M.W.,Wilson,C.D.,andPunt,A.E.2016. Evaluating

totaluncertaintyforbiomass-andabundance-at-ageestimatesfromeasternBering Seawalleyepollockacoustic-trawl surveys.–ICESJournalofMarine Science,doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw054.

EcosystemEcosystemconsiderations:http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/REFM/docs/2015/ecosystem.pdf

Bering SeaIntegratedEcosystemResearchPlanhttp://bsierp.nprb.org/

NEW:Spencer,P.D.,Holsman,K.K.,Zador,S.,Bond,N.A.,Mueter,F.J.,Hollowed, AnneB.,and

Ianelli, J.N.2016.Modelling spatiallydependentpredationmortalityofeasternBeringSeawalleyepollock, anditsimplicationsforstockdynamicsunderfuture climate scenarios.ICES JournalofMarine Science,doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw040.

Jurado-MolinaJ.,P.A.LivingstonandJ.N.Ianelli.2005.Incorporatingpredation

interactions toastatisticalcatch-at-agemodelforapredator-preysystemintheeasternBering Sea.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquatic Sciences.62(8):1865-1873.

Hunt, G.L.,Ressler,P.H.,Gibson,G.a.,DeRobertis,A.,Aydin, K.,Sigler,M.F.,…Buckley, T.(2015).

Euphausiidsintheeastern Bering Sea:Asynthesis ofrecentstudiesofeuphausiidproduction,consumptionandpopulation control. DeepSeaResearch PartII:TopicalStudiesinOceanography,(April2016),1–19.doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.10.007

Ianelli,J.,Holsman,K.K.,Punt, A.E.,&Aydin, K.(2016).Multi-model inferencefor

incorporatingtrophicandclimateuncertaintyintostockassessments.Deep SeaResearchPartII:TopicalStudiesinOceanography.doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.04.002

Other documents

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Barbeaux,S.J.,S.Gaichas, J.N.Ianelli,andM.W.Dorn.2005.Evaluationofbiologicalsamplingprotocolsforat-seagroundfishobserversinAlaska.AlaskaFisheriesResearchBulletin11(2):82-101. (Online)

Brodziak,J.,J.Ianelli, K.Lorenzen, andR.D.MethotJr.(eds).2011.Estimatingnaturalmortality

instockassessmentapplications. U.S.Dep.Commer.,NOAATech.Memo.NMFS-F/SPO-119,38p.

StahlandKruse2008a.Classification ofOvarian StagesofWalleyepollock

StahlandKruse2008b.SpatialandTemporal VariabilityinSizeatMaturityofWalleyepollockinthe

EasternBering Sea

Ianelli, J.N.andD.A.Fournier.1998.Alternativeage-structuredanalysesoftheNRCsimulatedstockassessmentdata.InRestrepo, V.R.[ed.].AnalysesofsimulateddatasetsinsupportoftheNRCstudyonstockassessmentmethods.NOAATech.Memo.NMFS-F/SPO-30. 96p.

Grant,W.S.,Spies,I.,and Canino,M.F.2010.Shifting-balance stockstructureinNorthPacific

walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus).–ICESJournalofMarineScience,67:000–000.

Kimura, D.K.,J.J.Lyons,S.E.MacLellan,andB.J.Goetz. 1992.Effectsofyear-classstrength

onagedetermination.Aust.J.Mar. FreshwaterRes.43:1221-8.

2010CIEreviewsDarby,Smith,Stokes

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Appendix 2: A copy of the CIE Statement of Work

StatementofWork

ExternalIndependentPeerReviewbytheCenterforIndependentExperts

AssessmentofthepollockstockintheEasternBeringSea

ScopeofWorkandCIEProcess:TheNationalMarineFisheriesService’s(NMFS)OfficeofScienceandTechnologycoordinatesandmanagesacontractprovidingexternalexpertisethroughtheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)toconductindependentpeerreviewsofNMFSscientificprojects.TheStatementofWork(SoW)describedhereinwasestablishedbytheNMFSProjectContactandContractingOfficer’sTechnicalRepresentative(COTR),andreviewedbyCIEforcompliancewiththeirpolicyforprovidingindependentexpertisethatcanprovideimpartialandindependentpeerreviewwithoutconflictsofinterest.CIEreviewersareselectedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandCIECoordinationTeamtoconducttheindependentpeerreviewofNMFSscienceincompliancethepredeterminedTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreview.EachCIErevieweriscontractedtodeliveranindependentpeerreviewreporttobeapprovedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandthereportistobeformattedwithcontentrequirementsasspecifiedinAnnex1.ThisSoWdescribestheworktasksanddeliverablesoftheCIEreviewerforconductinganindependentpeerreviewofthefollowingNMFSproject.FurtherinformationontheCIEprocesscanbeobtainedfromwww.ciereviews.org.

ProjectDescription:TheannualassessmentsofthepollockstockintheEBShaveusedsimilarmodelconfigurationsforanumberofyearsnow.Reviewisneededtoidentifyareaswheretheassessmentcanbeimprovedandaspectsthatwouldleadtobest-practicesforneartermcatchrecommendations.The SSC has requested evaluation of environmental covariates for relative cohort strength, and temperature effects on survey catchability and/or selectivity. Other evaluations on the effect of alternative catch scenarios (i.e., if the catch was equal to the ABC) would be useful to help provide context to the current management practices (in which catches are in most years constrained by a 2 million t limit for all groundfish in the BSAI region). TheTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreviewareattachedinAnnex2.ThetentativeagendaofthepanelreviewmeetingisattachedinAnnex3.

RequirementsforCIEReviewers:ThreeCIEreviewersshallconductanimpartialandindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRsherein.CIEreviewersshallhaveworkingknowledgeandrecentexperienceintheapplicationofstockassessmentmethodsingeneral,andpreferablyStockSynthesisinparticular.EachCIEreviewer’sdutiesshallnotexceedamaximumof14daystocompleteallworktasksofthepeerreviewdescribedherein.

LocationofPeerReview:EachCIEreviewershallconductanindependentpeerreviewduringthepanelreviewmeetingscheduledinSeattle,WAduringMay16-19,2016(oroneofthesubsequentweeks).

StatementofTasks:EachCIEreviewersshallcompletethefollowingtasksinaccordancewiththeSoWandScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverablesherein.

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PriortothePeerReview:UponcompletionoftheCIEreviewerselectionbytheCIESteeringCommittee,theCIEshallprovidetheCIEreviewerinformation(fullname,title,affiliation,country,address,email)totheCOTR,whoforwardsthisinformationtotheNMFSProjectContactnolaterthedatespecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.TheCIEisresponsibleforprovidingtheSoWandToRstotheCIEreviewers.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforprovidingtheCIEreviewerswiththebackgrounddocuments,reports,foreignnationalsecurityclearance,andotherinformationconcerningpertinentmeetingarrangements.TheNMFSProjectContactisalsoresponsibleforprovidingtheChairacopyoftheSoWinadvanceofthepanelreviewmeeting.AnychangestotheSoWorToRsmustbemadethroughtheCOTRpriortothecommencementofthepeerreview.

ForeignNationalSecurityClearance:WhenCIEreviewersparticipateduringapanelreviewmeetingatagovernmentfacility,theNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforobtainingtheForeignNationalSecurityClearanceapprovalforCIEreviewerswhoarenon-UScitizens.Forthisreason,theCIEreviewersshallproviderequestedinformation(e.g.,firstandlastname,contactinformation,gender,birthdate,passportnumber,countryofpassport,traveldates,countryofcitizenship,countryofcurrentresidence,andhomecountry)totheNMFSProjectContactforthepurposeoftheirsecurityclearance,andthisinformationshallbesubmittedatleast30daysbeforethepeerreviewinaccordancewiththeNOAADeemedExportTechnologyControlProgramNAO207-12regulationsavailableattheDeemedExportsNAOwebsite:http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/

http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/compliance_access_control_procedures/noaa-foreign-national-registration-system.html

Pre-reviewBackgroundDocuments:Twoweeksbeforethepeerreview,theNMFSProjectContactwillsend(byelectronicmailoronline)totheCIEreviewersthenecessarybackgroundinformationandreportsforthepeerreview.Inthecasewherethedocumentsneedtobemailed,theNMFSProjectContactwillconsultwiththeCIELeadCoordinatoronwheretosenddocuments.CIEreviewersareresponsibleonlyforthepre-reviewdocumentsthataredeliveredtothereviewerinaccordancetotheSoWscheduleddeadlinesspecifiedherein.TheCIEreviewersshallreadalldocumentsinpreparationforthepeerreview.

AssessmentofthewalleyepollockstockintheeasternBeringSea(~100p.),includingastockstructureevaluationprovidedasanappendix)

CIEreviewoftherecruitmentprocessesgroupconductedJune2015

Commentsonthefinal2015EBSpollockassessmentsbythePlanTeamandSSC

PanelReviewMeeting:EachCIEreviewershallconducttheindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRs,andshallnotserveinanyotherroleunlessspecifiedherein.ModificationstotheSoWandToRscannotbemadeduringthepeerreview,andanySoWorToRsmodificationspriortothepeerreviewshallbeapprovedbytheCOTRandCIELeadCoordinator.EachCIEreviewershallactivelyparticipateinaprofessionalandrespectfulmannerasamemberofthemeetingreviewpanel,andtheirpeerreviewtasksshallbefocusedontheToRsasspecifiedherein.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforanyfacilityarrangements(e.g.,conferenceroomforpanelreviewmeetingsorteleconferencearrangements).TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforensuringthattheChairunderstandsthecontractualroleoftheCIEreviewersasspecifiedherein.TheCIELeadCoordinatorcan

18

contacttheProjectContacttoconfirmanypeerreviewarrangements,includingthemeetingfacilityarrangements.

Thereviewmeetingwillincludethreemainparts:

1. Aseriesofpresentationswithfollow-upquestionsanddiscussionsbyCIEreviewers,tobechairedbyanAFSCscientist.

2. Anyreal-timemodelrunsandevaluationsconductedinaninformalworkshopsetting,asproposedbytheCIEreviewers.

3. InitialreportwritingbytheCIEreviewers,withopportunityforadditionalquestionsoftheassessmentauthor.

ContractDeliverables-IndependentCIEPeerReviewReports:EachCIEreviewershallcompleteanindependentpeerreviewreportinaccordancewiththeSoW.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaccordingtorequiredformatandcontentasdescribedinAnnex1.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaddressingeachToRasdescribedinAnnex2.

OtherTasks–ContributiontoSummaryReport:EachCIEreviewermayassisttheChairofthepanelreviewmeetingwithcontributionstotheSummaryReport,basedonthetermsofreferenceofthereview.EachCIEreviewerisnotrequiredtoreachaconsensus,andshouldprovideabriefsummaryofthereviewer’sviewsonthesummaryoffindingsandconclusionsreachedbythereviewpanelinaccordancewiththeToRs.

SpecificTasksforCIEReviewers:ThefollowingchronologicallistoftasksshallbecompletedbyeachCIEreviewerinatimelymannerasspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.

1) Conduct necessary pre-review preparations, including the review of background material and reports provided by the NMFS Project Contact in advance of the peer review.

2) Participate during the panel review meeting scheduled at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center in Seattle, WA during May 16-19, 2016.

3) Participate at the peer review meeting tentatively scheduled at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center in Seattle, WA during May 16-19, 2016 as specified herein, and conduct an independent peer review in accordance with the ToRs (Annex 2).

4) No later than June 3, 2016, each CIE reviewer shall submit an independent peer review report addressed to the “Center for Independent Experts,” and sent to Dr. Manoj Shivlani, CIE Lead Coordinator, via email to mshivlani@ntvifederal.net, and CIE Regional Coordinator, via email to Dr. David Die ddie@rsmas.miami.edu. Each CIE report shall be written using the format and content requirements specified in Annex 1, and address each ToR in Annex 2.

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ScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables:CIEshallcompletethetasksanddeliverablesdescribedinthisSoWinaccordancewiththefollowingtentativeschedule.

April 4, 2016 CIE sends reviewer contact information to the COTR, who then sends this to the NMFS Project Contact

April 25, 2016 NMFS Project Contact sends the CIE Reviewers the pre-review documents

May 16-19, 2016 Each reviewer participates and conducts an independent peer review during the panel review meeting

June 6, 2016 CIE reviewers submit draft CIE independent peer review reports to the CIE Lead Coordinator and CIE Regional Coordinator

June 20, 2016 CIE submits CIE independent peer review reports to the COTR

June 27, 2016 The COTR distributes the final CIE reports to the NMFS Project Contact and regional Center Director

ModificationstotheStatementofWork:This‘TimeandMaterials’taskordermayrequireanupdateormodificationduetopossiblechangestothetermsofreferenceorscheduleofmilestonesresultingfromthefisherymanagementdecisionprocessoftheNOAALeadership,FisheryManagementCouncil,andCouncil’sSSCadvisorycommittee.ArequesttomodifythisSoWmustbeapprovedbytheContractingOfficeratleast15workingdayspriortomakinganypermanentchanges.TheContractingOfficerwillnotifytheCOTRwithin10workingdaysafterreceiptofallrequiredinformationofthedecisiononchanges.TheCOTRcanapprovechangestothemilestonedates,listofpre-reviewdocuments,andToRswithintheSoWaslongastheroleandabilityoftheCIEreviewerstocompletethedeliverableinaccordancewiththeSoWisnotadverselyimpacted.TheSoWandToRsshallnotbechangedoncethepeerreviewhasbegun.

AcceptanceofDeliverables:UponreviewandacceptanceoftheCIEindependentpeerreviewreportsbytheCIELeadCoordinator,RegionalCoordinator,andSteeringCommittee,thesereportsshallbesenttotheCOTRforfinalapprovalascontractdeliverablesbasedoncompliancewiththeSoWandToRs.AsspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables,theCIEshallsendviae-mailthecontractdeliverables(CIEindependentpeerreviewreports)totheCOTR(WilliamMichaels,viaWilliam.Michaels@noaa.gov).

ApplicablePerformanceStandards:ThecontractissuccessfullycompletedwhentheCOTRprovidesfinalapprovalofthecontractdeliverables.Theacceptanceofthecontractdeliverablesshallbebasedonthreeperformancestandards:

(1)TheCIEreportshallcompletedwiththeformatandcontentinaccordancewithAnnex1,

(2)TheCIEreportshalladdresseachToRasspecifiedinAnnex2,

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(3)TheCIEreportsshallbedeliveredinatimelymannerasspecifiedinthescheduleofmilestonesanddeliverables.

DistributionofApprovedDeliverables:UponacceptancebytheCOTR,theCIELeadCoordinatorshallsendviae-mailthefinalCIEreportsin*.PDFformattotheCOTR.TheCOTRwilldistributetheCIEreportstotheNMFSProjectContactandCenterDirector.

SupportPersonnel:

AllenShimadaNMFSOfficeofScienceandTechnology1315EastWestHwy,SSMC3,F/ST4,SilverSpring,MD20910AllenShimada@noaa.gov Phone:301-427-8174ManojShivlani,CIELeadCoordinatorNorthernTaigaVentures,Inc.10600SW131stCourt,Miami,FL33186mshivlani@ntvifederal.com Phone:305-968-7136KeyPersonnel:NMFSProjectContact:JamesIanelli,AlaskaFisheriesScienceCenterNMFS/NOAABuilding47600SandPointWayNESeattleWA98115Jim.ianelli@noaa.gov

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Annex 1: Format and Contents of CIE Independent Peer Review Report

1. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeprefacedwithanExecutiveSummaryprovidingaconcisesummaryofthefindingsandrecommendations,andspecifywhetherthesciencereviewedisthebestscientificinformationavailable.

2. ThemainbodyofthereviewerreportshallconsistofaBackground,DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivities,SummaryofFindingsforeachToRinwhichtheweaknessesandstrengthsaredescribed,andConclusionsandRecommendationsinaccordancewiththeToRs.

a. Reviewersshoulddescribeintheirownwordsthereviewactivitiescompletedduringthepanelreviewmeeting,includingprovidingabriefsummaryoffindings,ofthescience,conclusions,andrecommendations.

b. ReviewersshoulddiscusstheirindependentviewsoneachToRevenifthesewereconsistentwiththoseofotherpanelists,andespeciallywherethereweredivergentviews.

c. ReviewersshouldelaborateonanypointsraisedintheSummaryReportthattheyfeelmightrequirefurtherclarification.

d. ReviewersshallprovideacritiqueoftheNMFSreviewprocess,includingsuggestionsforimprovementsofbothprocessandproducts.

e. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeastand-alonedocumentforotherstounderstandtheweaknessesandstrengthsofthesciencereviewed,regardlessofwhetherornottheyreadthesummaryreport.TheCIEindependentreportshallbeanindependentpeerreviewofeachToRs,andshallnotsimplyrepeatthecontentsofthesummaryreport.

3.Thereviewerreportshallincludethefollowingappendices:

Appendix1:Bibliographyofmaterialsprovidedforreview

Appendix2:AcopyoftheCIEStatementofWork

Appendix3:PanelMembershiporotherpertinentinformationfromthepanelreviewmeeting.

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Annex 2: Terms of Reference for the Peer Review

AssessmentofWalleyepollockintheEasternBeringSea

5. Evaluation,findings,andrecommendationsonqualityofinputdataandmethodsusedtoprocessthemforinclusionintheassessment.Inparticular:

a. Istheuseoftheindexofacousticbackscatterfromopportunistic(AVO)usedappropriately?

b. Ismodelingobservednumbersfromsurveysappropriate?

c. Howshoulddataonmeanbodymassatagebebestusedformodelprojections?

d. Howshouldthevariousdatasetsbeweighted?

6. Evaluateandproviderecommendationsonmodelstructure,assumptions,andestimationproceduresusestoassessstockstatusandcondition.Inparticular:

a. Aretheselectivityapproachesusedforsurveysandfisheryappropriate?

b. Howshouldtrans-boundaryaspectsoftheresourcebehandled?

c. Whatconstraints,ifany,shouldbeplacedonsurveycatchability?

d. Howshouldmodelprojectionalternativesbeevaluated/presented?

e. Anythingelseonwhichthereviewerscaretocomment.

7. EvaluateandproviderecommendationsonharvestrecommendationsprovidedbytheNPFMCTiersysteminthecontextofthe2,000,000tBSAIcapandrealizedmanagementrecommendations

8. Evaluatetheextentthatecosystemdataarepresentlyincludedintheassessmentandrecommendhowandwhereimprovementscanbemade.

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Annex3:TentativeAgenda

CIEReviewoftheEasternBeringSeaWalleyepollockstockassessment

AlaskaFisheriesScienceCenter

7600SandPointWayNE,Seattle,WA98115

May16-19,2016

Building4;Room2143(orTBD)

ReviewpanelChair/facilitator:AnneHollowed(Anne.Hollowed@noaa.gov)

Leadassessmentauthor:JimIanelli(Jim.Ianelli@noaa.gov)

Securityandcheck-in:JimIanelli

Sessionswillrunfrom9a.m.to5p.m.eachday,withtimeforlunchandmorningandafternoonbreaks.Discussionwillbeopentoeveryone,withprioritygiventothepanelandseniorassessmentauthor.

Monday, May 16

Preliminaries:

0900Introductionsandadoptionofagenda Chair

Datasources(currentandpotential):

0910Overviewofdatatypesusedintheassessments JimI.

0920Catchaccountingsystemandin-seasonmanagement AKROSFDivision

0950Observerprogram Observerprogram

1020 Break 1030EBStrawlsurvey StanKotwicki

1115Acoustictrawlsurvey ChrisWilson

1200Lunch

1300Agedetermination TomHelser

1330Agecompositionandmean-weight-at-agedata JimI.

Assessmentmodels:

1400Assessmentdetails JimI.

1500Break

1510Managementbackgroundandissues(ToR3) DianaStram(NPFMC)

1610Ecosystemapplicationinassessment(ToR4) TBD

1640Discussion Panel

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Tuesday, May 17

0900Assessmentmodelreview Jim

1000Topicsasneeded,discussionandmodelclarifications

1300Presentationofmodelupdates,furtherrequestsanddiscussions

1700Adjourn

Wednesday, May 18

Reviewofmodelsassignedthepreviousday

Discussion,real-timemodelruns

Assignmentsformodelstobepresentedthefollowingday

Thursday, May 19

Reviewofmodels

Discussion,real-timemodelruns

Reportwriting(timepermitting)

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Appendix 3: Panel Membership or other pertinent information from the panel review meeting

Name Organization e-mail Stan Kotwicki NMFS – AFSC Stan.Kotwicki@noaa.gov Martin Dorn NMFS – AFSC Martin.Dorn@noaa.gov Diana Stram NPFMC Staff Diana.Stram@noaa.gov Kirstin Holsman NMFS – AFSC Kirstin.Holsman@noaa.gov Darin Jones NMFS – AFSC Darin.Jones@noaa.gov James Thorson NMFS – AFSC James.Thorson@noaa.gov Ed Richardson At Sea Processors Assoc. erichardson@atsea.org

Chris Wilson NMFS – AFSC Chris.Wilson@noaa.gov

Steve Barbeaux NMFS – AFSC Steve.Barbeaux@noaa.gov

Craig Faunce NMFS – AFSC Craig.Faunce@noaa.gov

Steve Martell Sea State Steve@seastateinc.com Sandi Neidetcher NMFS – AFSC Sandi.Neidetcher@noaa.gov Jim Ianelli NMFS – AFSC Jim.Ianelli@noaa.gov

Alex De Robertis NMFS – AFSC Alex.DiRobertis@Noaa.gov Nate Lauffenburger NMFS - AFSC Nate.Lauffenburger@noaa.gov Kresimir Williams NMFS – AFSC Kresimir.Williams@noaa.gov Robert Lauth NMFS – AFSC Bob.Lauth@noaa.gov

Anne Hollowed NMFS – AFSC Anne.Hollowed@noaa.gov Chris Francis CIE chris.francis@clear.net.nz Henrik Sparholt CIE henrik.sparholt@gmail.com Patrick Cordue CIE plc@isl-solutions.co.nz