incarceration and fragile families bruce western, princeton university leonard m. lopoo, syracuse...
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Incarceration and Fragile Families
Bruce Western, Princeton UniversityLeonard M. Lopoo, Syracuse UniversitySara McLanahan, Princeton University
May 2004
This research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation
Incarceration and Family Stability
• The prison boom has made imprisonment a normal life event for young non-college African American men
• Low-education black couples have experienced a large drop in marriage rates and a large increase in non-marital birth rates
• Could incarceration be reducing the likelihood of marriage? Is this necessarily a bad thing?
Our Empirical Analysis• Incarceration is measured with fathers’ and
mothers’ reports in the Fragile Families Survey
• We construct a measure of father’s prior incarceration, using mothers’ and fathers’ data
• Prior incarceration is related to measures of divorce and cohabitation (longitudinal character of the data attempts to adjust for unobserved heterogeneity)
• Low marriage rates among ex-offenders may not be a bad outcome, if men are violent. We can also look at domestic violence
Useful Features of FF for Studying the Effects of Incarceration
• The survey asks mothers and fathers whether the father has ever been incarcerated
• The survey also provides detailed information about the status of the couple’s relationship, and asks mothers if they have ever been assaulted by their partners
• Survey data are currently available at two points in time
Mothers’ and Fathers’ Reports of Incarceration
Father’s Report
Mother's Report
Non-interview
No prison or Jail
Prison or Jail
Total
Non-interview 0.0% 4.8% 6.0% 3.8%
No prison/jail 59.7 76.0 31.9 66.5
Prison/jail 40.3 19.2 62.1 29.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
N 432 1170 235 1837
Mothers’ and Fathers’ Reports of Incarceration
Father’s Report
Mother's Report
Non-interview
No prison or Jail
Prison or Jail
Total
Non-interview 0.0% 4.8% 6.0% 3.8%
No prison/jail 59.7 76.0 31.9 66.5
Prison/jail 40.3 19.2 62.1 29.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
N 432 1170 235 1837
YY YN NY Miss. YY YN NY Miss. YY YN NY Miss.
01
02
03
04
05
0
Pe
rce
nt
Inca
rce
rate
d
Mom/Dad:
Father is Violent Father is Critical Father is Affectionate
Some Predictors of Marriage at 1 Year
Ever Incarcerated?
No Yes
Married at baseline 0.34 0.08
Cohabiting at baseline 0.37 0.44
HS dropout 0.27 0.42
College graduate 0.15 0.01
Will compromise 0.57 0.44
Drug or alcohol use 0.13 0.27
N 2797 1070
Incarceration Effects
Cohabitation Marriage
Baseline Effect Baseline Effect
Full Sample .284 -.055* .079 -.029*
(.019) (.009)
Blacks .258 -.022 .043 -.020*
(.024) (.008)
Whites .206 -.086* .145 -.062
(.037) (.035)
Hispanics .328 -.085* .120 -.023
(.038) (.024)
Aggregate Effects of Incarceration
Observed Adjusted
All white men .58 .59
White men, non-college .53 .55
White men, HS dropouts .53 .56
All black men .40 .45
Black men, non-college .33 .40
Black men, HS dropouts .30 .43
Observed marriage rates and predicted marriage rates at an incarceration rate of zero, men aged 30-34, 1999
Implications of the Incarceration Effects
• Incarceration may have large aggregate effects on rates of marriage and cohabitation in poor urban communities with high incarceration rates
• Low marriage rates, although associated with social and economic disadvantage, may reduce women’s exposure to violence and crime
• We can also study patterns of domestic violence with the Fragile Families data
Fa
the
rs C
om
mitt
ing
Do
me
stic
Vio
len
ce (
%)
0
4
8
12
16
Not IncarceratedDrugsOtherViolence
Before Pregnancy During Pregnancy After Pregnancy
02
46
Pe
rce
nt
Re
po
rtin
g D
om
est
ic V
iole
nce Coresiding
Not coresiding
During Pregnancy After Pregnancy
Logistic Regression on Post-Pregnancy Domestic Violence
Incarceration for Violence 1.31 1.23
(4.17) (3.71)
Incarceration for Drugs .98 .91
(2.39) (2.14)
Incarceration for Other Offense 1.25 1.19
(5.32) (4.87)
Cohabiting .01 .11
(.04) (.48)
Marriage -.78 -.48
(1.91) (1.11)
Affectionate - -.22
(1.84)
Length of Relationship - -.09
(2.65)
Conclusions
• Analysis of Fragile Families data suggests that incarceration reduces the likelihood of marriage and cohabitation
• Incarceration effects have a large aggregate impact on marriage rates for non-college black couples
• Formerly-incarcerated men are more likely to be involved in domestic violence
• BUT, there are drug offenders are less likely to be violent than others, and these effects are offset if men are in strong relationships