improving focus and predictability on projects with critical chain project management

Collaboration and Empowerment

PMI – Central Indiana Chapter Indianapolis, IN

2013 Professional Development Day Slide 1

Session 17 Joe Cooper

With Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM)

Presented by: Joe Cooper, PMP

IMPROVING FOCUS AND PREDICTABILITY ON PROJECTS





Topics Covered

Problems associated with poor project performance

Root causes of the problems

Addressing the problems at their core with Critical Chain solutions





Problems of poor project performance

Low team morale

Missed delivery dates: Late projects

Excessive project durations: Reduced return on investment (ROI)





Low team morale





Root causes

Low-trust environments

Nonproductive multitasking

Uncertainty in task estimates

Student Syndrome

Parkinson’s Law

High amounts of work in progress





Multitasking example

Volunteer needed





Multitasking example

1 A I

2 B II

3 C III

4 D IV

5 E V

6 F VI

7 G VII

8 H VIII

9 I IX

10 J X





Multitasking example: observations

Context switching creates a loss of productivity, an increase in stress, and a decrease in quality

“Focus” allows most tasks (or projects) to complete faster and with better quality





Multitasking example: observations (cont.)

Even the tasks (or projects) that start later, finish earlier

Time to Market and Return on Investment improve significantly





Multitasking

Team Members: 1 1 1

P1: A B C D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

48 Weeks

A B C D E F G H I J 50 Weeks


$ $ $ $

“Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves” –Albert Einstein

$ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $





Focused execution

Team Members: 1 1 1

P1: D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

20 Weeks

D E F G H I J 28 Weeks


$

B C A

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

B C A

B C A

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $





Multitasking vs. Focus comparison

Multitasking

Focus

“Focusing on everything is synonymous with focusing on nothing at all.” –Dr. Eli Goldratt

P1: A B C D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

48 Weeks



P1: D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

20 Weeks



B C A

B C A

B C A





Probability of task duration P

robabili

ty

Time

10% confidence 50% confidence 95% confidence

2 days 5 days 12 days

.20

.40

.60

.80

1.0

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” –Nils Bohr





Student Syndrome

Planned Task

Effort

Time

“Never put off till tomorrow what may be done the day after tomorrow just as well.” –Mark Twain





Parkinson’s Law

Work expands to fill the time allotted

Reliable estimators

Padding will be cut on next estimate

Polishing the cannonball (deliverables)

∴ Heavily padded task durations become self-fulfilling prophecies even when the work is completed “early”.

“Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” –Cyril Northcote Parkinson





Critical Chain unlocks a series of new paradigms

Based on the works of Taiichi Ohno, father of the Toyota Production System

Dr. Goldratt: Standing on the shoulders of giants – white paper

Biggest waste on projects is padding buried in tasks

50/50 task estimates eliminate the hidden padding

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein





Critical Chain unlocks a series of new paradigms

Project buffer: When contingency is aggregated, variability goes down – Central Limit Theorem

25% reduction in project durations is minimum to expect

Project on-time delivery improves to 95%

Creates an objective and transparent leading indicator of project health

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein





Protecting the project commitment

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4





Buffer consumption chart B

uff

er

co

nsu

me

d





Portfolio/Program buffer chart B

uffer

consum

ed

.P1111

.P2222

.P3333

.P4444

.P5555

.P6666

P7777.

Project duration





The Critical Chain Way

Aggressive and achievable task estimates – 50/50

Focus until finished / reduced multitasking

It’s ok to be early, ok to be late, just focus and hand off the baton as quickly as possible

Mutual trust

High team morale

High speed, quality, throughput





Thank you!

Joe Cooper, PMP email: [email protected] phone: 309-212-6305

: joecooper1

www.Allegient.com

improving focus and predictability on projects with critical chain project management

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