improved security provides opening for cooperation april 2017 survey... · page 1 improved security...

Improved Security Provides Opening for CooperationMarch – April 2017 Survey Findings

• National Survey (excluding areas currently held by ISIS)

– March 26 – April 21, 2017

– 1,338 respondents (unweighted 2,020 respondents)

• 293 Baghdad respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)

• 500 South respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)

• 363 West respondents (unweighted 520 respondents, including 200

interviews in Mosul city)

• 184 Kurdistan respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)

– Margin of error on national sample: +/- 2.19

• +/- 4.4% in each region

– Oversamples of those who lived under ISIS

• 200 interviews in the Khazer M1 camp, Ninewa

• 100 interviews in Salahaddin, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year

• 100 interviews in Anbar, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year

• Data excluded from national sample, since selected on criteria (not randomly)

The research

The Iraq “Dashboard” – Bounce back from historic lowsMetric/survey question Current

%

Change

Jan ‘16

Movement

Country direction, % right, total 39 +29 Much Better

Security, % better, total 60 +26 Much Better

Electricity supply, % better, total 39 +12 Better

Corruption, % better, total 13 +3 Stable

Job opportunities, % better, total 12 +1 Stable

Abadi favorability, % favorable among Shia 46 +15 Better

Abadi favorability, in West 68 +52 Much Better

Sectarianism, % better, total 62 +32 Much Better

Iraq is mostly unified %, total 45 +3 Stable

Sunni/Shia relations, % better, total 84 +40 Much Better

KRG/Baghdad relations, % better, total 22 +18 Better

Kurdish direction, % right, Kurdistan only 43 +15 Better

Improved security drives optimism

45

41 4137

48

40

31

4134

26

10

3944

50 50 50

44

54

65

5155

65

82

59

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17

Right direction Wrong direction

Overall country mood reboundsGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

39 41

3236 35

64

3

59 5764 62 62

34

95

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Urban Rural Baghdad South West Kurdistan


Optimism in all regions except KurdistanGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

∆ Jan’16 +29 +31 +20 +28 +16 +59 +3

Right direction

3

9

9

13

13

14

15

34

41

43

0 10 20 30 40 50

Internally displaced Iraqis

Health care services

Infrastructure, like roads and bridges

Education and schools

High prices

Basic services like electricity and water

Sectarianism

Security

Jobs and unemployment

Corruption

Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address

∆ Jan’16

+3

+5

-12

+5

-8

+4

+6

N/A

N/A

-6

Iraqi priorities shift as security improves

Perceptions of Army improve dramatically

5866 59

81

18 1932

120

20

40

60

80

100

Oct-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17

Favorable Unfavorable

More than 4 in 5 now favorable to ArmyGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

8195 95 88

10

12 2 3 6

67

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan

% Favorable % Unfavorable

+22 +14 +0 +67 +8

Strong ratings for Army, except in KurdistanNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

∆ Jan’15, favorable

2

2

7

8

10

13

15

63

76

0 20 40 60 80

Political leaders

Tribal leaders

The central government

Religious leaders

Haider al-Abadi

International forces

Peshmerga

Hashd al-Shaabi

Army

Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?

Army and PMUs get most of the credit for liberation

Credit for liberation, by region

7

43

92

4

20

25

17

7

40

92

2

3

0

93

78

6

6

2

79

91

0 20 40 60 80 100

Haider al-Abadi

International forces

Peshmerga

Hashd al-Shaabi

ArmyBaghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?

Army seen to represent all

Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:

0

2

3

7

8

77

0 20 40 60 80

Only Sunnis

A foreign country

A specific political party or leader

Both Shia and Sunni

Only Shias

All Iraqis

Only Kurdistan disagrees on army representing all

Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:

19

11

36

16

2

8

6

83

0

7

2

87

0

5

2

90

0 20 40 60 80 100

A specific political party or leader

Both Shia and Sunni

Only Shias

All IraqisBaghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

West also now more favorable to PMUs

7490

100

60

2196

28

76

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100



+7 -4 +2 +22 --

Hashd al-Shaabi also now more favorable in WestNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

∆ Jan’16, favorable

Strong job approval, but regional tensions apparent

99 96 95

45

96 97

77

13

67

32

59

96

1 3 4

51

4 3

23

85

32

49

41

20

20

40

60

80

100

Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan

Approve Disapprove

Iraqi National Army Hashd al-Shaabi Peshmerga

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Iraq's Army/Hashd al-Shaabi/Pershmerga is doing in the fight against ISIS?

Winning the Peace: The Army and PMUs

High expectations for ISIS defeat this year

Based on what you know, how long do you think it will take for Iraq to be fully liberated from ISIS?

59

49

7370

18

33

48

20

28

58

42 2 1

18

0

20

40

60

80


Within one year More than one year Never

∆ Sept.’15 , within one year

+23 +1 +21 +51 +7

0

2

4

7

16

20

48

0 20 40 60 80 100

PKK or YPG

Ninewa Guards

Hashd al-Shaari

Peshmerga

Hashd al-Shaabi

The Iraqi police

The Iraqi army

I am now going to read a list of different security forces in Iraq. Based on what you know, which ONE of the following should provide security for areas liberated from or currently occupied by ISIS such as Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin?

Most want army in liberated areas for security

The Iraqi Army

Mosul 70%

Ninewa camp 69%

Anbar 70%

Salahaddin 46%

West and Kurds worry about PMU violence

Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of Hashd al-Shaabi committing violence in liberated areas?

3630

8

55

82

6269

89

45

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West K'stan

Very/Somewhat Little/Not

Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence in liberated areas?

2518

9

34

6773

81

90

65

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West K'stan


5

7

7

16

23

40

0 10 20 30 40 50

Remain as it is and deploy to provinces that were notcontested by ISIS

Remain as it is but stay only in contested areas

Remain as it is but return to their home governorates

Completely disband and turn over its weapons

Be given more power as a separate military force

Be dissolved and integrated into the Iraqi Army

Now thinking specifically about Hashd al-Shaabi, what do you think should be done with Hashd al-Shaabi after Iraq is liberated from ISIS.

Most want PMU integration; Kurds/IDPs want them disbanded

West: 20%

Kurdistan: 60%

Ninewa camp: 51%

Divisions on PMUs entering politics

Do you approve or disapprove of Hashd al-Shaabi becoming more involved in the political process by registering new political parties and having candidates in the next elections?

47

6154

49

1

47

35 36

48

96

0

20

40

60

80

100


Approve Disapprove

7481 81 77

3425

18 1622

63

0

20

40

60

80

100


Approve Disapprove

Broad support for compulsory army, except in NorthDo you approve or disapprove of the Iraqi Army re-instating the policy of compulsory military service for all Iraqi men 18 years and older?

∆ Jan’15 +5 +3 -3 +24 -6Approve

Understanding ISIS’s Rise

9

20

28

29

31

36

42

0 10 20 30 40 50

Treatment of Sunnis by Iraqi Security Forces

Poor economic conditions

Foreign governments

Political parties

Treatment of Sunnis by former Prime Minister Maliki

Sectarian tensions in Iraq

Corruption

Top choice

in West

(52%) and

Kurdistan

(47%)

Which TWO of the following do you blame the most for the rise of ISIS in Iraq:

Most blame corruption, but West and Kurds blame Maliki

5

9

19

23

39

0 10 20 30 40

ISIS offered better services than local or centralgovernment

ISIS offered protection from the central governmentand security forces

ISIS offered people money and a better life

ISIS offered people an attractive form of religion

ISIS used threats of violence

Now, I am going to read you a list of potential reasons why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq over the last few years. Please tell me which ONE of these is the most important reason for why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq

ISIS successful strategies: intimidation and persuasion

Kurdistan’s first

choice: 32%

11

12

24

28

30

36

48

0 10 20 30 40 50

Pressure from family and friends

Treatment by other sects

Injustice from the government

Poor economic situations

Poor government performance

Forced to join

Religious beliefs

Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?

Religion behind why some joined ISIS

Why some joined ISIS, by region

23

46

33

17

39

33

37

26

23

51

14

20

35

41

52

30

21

25

56

44

0 20 40 60

Injustice from the government

Poor economic situations

Poor government performance

Forced to join

Religious beliefsBaghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?

7887 85 86

31

14 116 7

56

0

20

40

60

80

100


The fight against ISIS has

helped unify the people of

Iraq.

The fight against ISIS has

further divided the people of

Iraq.

The fight against ISIS has helped to unify Iraq

58

74

4449

91

40

25

5550

6

0

20

40

60

80

100



Majority concerned about ISIS’s return

Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging in Iraq, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging to Iraq?

Ninewa after ISIS

2

3

6

9

12

22

22

23

27

76

32

14

7

52

19

5

11

22

7

28

0 20 40 60 80

Education and schools

Infrastructure, like roads and bridges

Sectarianism

Jobs and unemployment

Basic services like electricity and water

Internally displaced Iraqis

Health care services

Corruption

High prices

Security

Mosul Ninewa Camp

Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address:

Ninewa camp, Mosul concerns show stark contrast

9

18

21

46

0 20 40 60 80

The currently elected governor

A civilian governor appointed by the primeminister

A civilian governor elected by theprovincial council

A military governor appointed by the primeminister

In Ninewa camp:

plurality do not

choose any

option

Thinking specifically about Ninewa. Which of the following do you think should govern Ninewa until it has been fully liberated and made more stable:

Support for military governor in Mosul

Kurdistan: 55%

Mosul: 59%

4

6

7

10

13

21

33

0 10 20 30 40

Major General Najm al-Juburi

Former Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi

Lieutenant General Abdulghani al-Asadi

Governor Nofal Hammadii

Other

Former Minister of Defense Khalid al-Obedi

Counterterrorism Commander AbdulWahhab al-Saedi

Please take a look at the names on this list. Based on what you know, which of the following individuals would do the best job bringing stability to Ninewa?

Who would bring stability to Ninewa? | Mosul & Ninewa camp

4

5

6

7

75

0 20 40 60 80 100

Link up with other Sunni provinces to forma larger semi-autonomous region

Becomes its own semi-autonomous regionlike KRG

Join the KRG

Be divided along ethnic and sectarianlines into different provinces

Remain as it currently is

Once Ninewa is liberated which of the following do you think should happen to the governorate:

Outside of Kurdistan, people want Ninewa to stay as is

Kurdistan

24

31

21

9

9

Abadi image rebounds

75

65

33

59

19

29

63

38

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17

Approve Disapprove

Majority approve of Abadi’s job againGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?

93

85

52

64

85 83

33

57

68

48

24

78

28

16 15

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17

Baghdad South West Kurdistan

% that approve

Abadi’s job approval jumps most in WestGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?

6655 52

39

21 18 16 6 5 6

23 26 30 37

69 69 66

84 88

63

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ameri Sadr Abadi Obeidi Maliki Allawi Hakim Jabouri Nujaifi Khanjar


Favorability of leaders | Non-KurdistanNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Δ Jan ’16 -2 +18 +25 +16 0 +7 -3 +1 +4 -3

Majority want to continue in Abadi’s direction

53 55 51

74

18

3328 31

17

77

0

20

40

60

80

100


I want to continue in the

direction Haider al-Abadi is

taking Iraq.

I want to go in a very different

direction than Haider al-Abadi is

taking Iraq.

∆ Jan’16

+23 -20 +8 -8 +16 -16 +55 -45 +4 0

Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq

1. Inclusive institutions need to deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the

future.

2. Prosecution of ISIS members and provision of compensation and

psychological support for victims are key priorities.

3. Leaders need to develop a strong vision for the future—fighting

corruption, creating jobs, and achieving long-term reconciliation.

Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq

45

5747 49

15

4838

45 45

81

0

20

40

60

80

100


Iraq is mostly a unified

country

Iraq is mostly a divided country.

Iraqis split on whether country is unified

∆ Jan’15 unified

+3 +11 -26 +36 +3

Belief that parties need to reconcile, not peopleGenerally speaking, how likely do you think it is that Iraq will see greater cooperation between the political parties in the near future?

3730

38

48

19

59

70

5450

76

0

20

40

60

80

100



Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that the different sects and ethnicities living in previously occupied ISIS areas will improve relations among themselves?

61

74

6370

17

32

2227 28

70

0

20

40

60

80

100



14

19

32

33

36

42

57

65

72

72

72

66

0 20 40 60 80

Decentralizing power to local governments so thatthey rely less on the central government

More cooperation among the political parties

Reducing influence of other countries

Holding a national dialogue on reconciliation thatincludes politicians, religious/tribal leaders, CSOs

Integrating the Popular Mobilization Units into theIraqi Army

Ending sectarian quotas for government positionsand jobs

Very effective Somewhat effective

Now, I am going to read you a list of ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve reconciliation in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve reconciliation in Iraq.

Removing quotas, PMU integration key to reconciliation

23

25

28

30

42

47

56

58

61

70

71

80

50

54

63

64

77

87

92

89

91

96

94

97

0 20 40 60 80 100

Creating a new cross-sectarian political party

Giving more power to Prime Minister Abadi

Creating cross-sectarian coalitions between political parties

Holding referendums to determine status of disputed territories

Making all armed groups illegal other than the Iraqi Army, police, and Peshmerga

Launching national dialogue to bring all sects together, decide the future of Iraq

Creating a national program to de-radicalize youth living under ISIS

De-radicalizing imams in mosques

Revising the curriculum in schools to emphasize diversity and coexistence

Creating tougher security measures to prevent sleeper cells in liberated areas

Fighting corruption

Creating more jobs and opportunities for youth

Very important Somewhat important

Now I am going to read you a list of things that some people think are important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge in Iraq. For each one please tell me if you think that thing is very important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge

Jobs and anti-corruption best way to stop ISIS’s return

3

8

8

76

0 20 40 60 80

Grant amnesty to those who come forward and admit theirwrongdoings

Require those found guilty to provide financial compensation tovictims

Offer amnesty to individuals not found guilty of serious crimessuch as murder, rape, or mutilation

Prosecute all accused ISIS detainees

Which ONE of the following do you think should be done to those who committed violent acts on behalf of ISIS?

Iraqis want prosecution for ISIS members

6

8

9

9

26

38

0 10 20 30 40 50

Tribes

The federal court

The United Nations and international community

Local justice panels

A special ISIS-related court

Military tribunals

Which ONE of the following would be most effective overseeing the process of prosecuting ISIS members and helping victims of their crimes?

Special courts preferred for prosecution of ISIS members

B’dad 59%

Kurdistan: 43%

8

8

8

11

17

32

34

73

0 20 40 60 80

Protect legal rights of children born as a result of sexual violence

Record and make public the stories of all ISIS victims

A monument to those who died fighting ISIS

Assist sexual violence victims reintegrate into their communities

Recognizing the Yezidi genocide

Establish a victims' support organization

Psychological support

Financial compensation

When thinking about the victims of ISIS, which TWO of the following do you think should be done to help these victims?

Helping ISIS’s victims

Kurdistan 52%

4

11

13

29

34

0 10 20 30 40 50

Tribal leaders

Religious leaders and mosques

Provincial councils

The United Nations

The central government

Please tell me which ONE of these you MOST trust to distribute compensation to those most harmed by ISIS.

Differing views on who should distribute compensation

South 23%

West 44%

Kurdistan 36%

84 8781

94

65

12 13 16 614

0

20

40

60

80

100


Yes No

High expectations for government compensation

In your opinion, do you think the central government should be required to compensate people who lost property or were injured by ISIS, with the compensation coming from the national budget, even if this means less revenue for salaries and development projects?

Kurdistan

Mood rebounds a bit in KurdistanGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

85

72 7478

65 63

74

6356

43

28

43

9

21 2215

30 2923

33

20

49

68

55

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17


49

3943

46

51 49

0

20

40

60

Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17

Approve Disapprove

Barzani approval down; split on another term | Kurdistan

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing as President of Kurdistan?

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Massoud Barzani serving another term as President of Kurdistan

43

52

0

20

40

60

Approve Disapprove

-3 +5

Δ Jan’16 Total

65

8678 80

96

20 615 9

20

20

40

60

80

100

Feb-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17

Kurdistan should become an independent country.

Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq.

Kurdish referendum result a certainty | Kurdistan

Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Miscellaneous

Internet access

Do you have regular access to the internet?

64

81

5865

55

34

19

4133

41

0

20

40

60

80

100


Yes No

Do you have a mobile phone with internet access?

67

82

5764

73

33

18

4336

27

0

20

40

60

80

100


Yes No

improved security provides opening for cooperation april 2017 survey... · page 1 improved security...

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