Im pact s of Cl im at e Change: Hum an Heal t hBenjamin Grove, Erin Lee, Gerrald Ting, Kelly Zhang

CPSG101 Science & Global Change First Year Colloquium IIApril 25, 2017

Introduction: There are three major ways that climate change adversely affects human health7:1. Direct effects (e.g. storms, drought, excessive heat, and other forms of extreme weather)2. Effects through natural systems (e.g. diseases, air quality)3. Effects through human systems (e.g. malnutrition, occupational issues, stress)

Bibliography:1- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, et al. 2016. Projected change in the climatic suitability for Chikungunya transmission. European Environment Agency. http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-the-climatic2- Walsh, J., D. Wuebbles, K. Hayhoe, J. Kossin, K. Kunkel, G. Stephens, P. Thorne, R. Vose, M. Wehner, J. Willis, D. Anderson, S. Doney, R. Feely, P. Hennon, V. Kharin, T. Knutson, F. Landerer, T. Lenton, J. Kennedy, and R. Somerville, 2014: Ch. 2: OurChanging Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese, (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT3Hajat S., Vardoulakis S., Heaviside C., et al. 2014. Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. J Epidemiol Community Health 68: 641-648. doi: 10.1136/jech-2013-2024494Smith, K.R., A. Woodward, B. Lemke, M. Otto, and C. Chang. 2016. The last Summer Olympics? Climate change, health, and work outdoors. The Lancet 388: 642-644. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31335-65Jones, G.D., B. Droz, P. Greve, P. Gottschalk, et al. 2017. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: 2848-2853. doi: 10.1073/pnas.16115761146Kovats, R.S.,Valentini, R., Bouwer, L.M., et al. 2014: Europe. In: Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Barros, V.R., Field, C.B., Dokken, D.J., et al.]. IPCC [AR5]: 1287.7Smith, K.R., A. Woodward, D. Campbell-Lendrum, D.D. Chadee, Y. Honda, Q. Liu, J.M. Olwoch, B. Revich, and R. Sauerborn. 2014: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. Pp. 709-754, in C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Cambridge University Press; Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Air Quality:

Figure 6: A map showing the projected distribution of Olympic cities that can safely host the summer games in 2085. Safe cities are listed out, the rest are represented by the red and light blue bars. By 2085, it is projected it would be safe to host the summer games in only 5% of the possible olympic cities.4

Figure 2: A graph of modelled heat related deaths in the UK for all age groups. The arrows are the minimum and maximum estimated deaths.Heat related deaths are expected to increase as summers become warmer while cold related deaths are expected to decrease as winters become milder.3

Figure 5: Geographical representation of the modeled soil Se concentrations (1980-1999) (A) and percentage change in soil Se concentrations between recent and future (2080-2099) conditions (B) as a function of projected changes in climate. Climate change decreases soil Se concentrations, which can lead to Se deficiencies in many diets.5

Figure 1: A side by side comparison of forest fire risks between 1961-1990 and 2041-2070.Climate change affects weather events such as forest fires or floods. An increase of these events will increase human mortality.6

Figure 4: A map showing the projected areas suitable for transmission of the Chikungunya virus, the top maps showing a current-policy projection while the bottom show reduced-emissions scenarios. In an increased-emissions projection, virus coverage would expand even more.1

Figure 3: Chart showing the annual climb in concentration of ragweed pollen related to the rise in CO2 ppm. in. Ragweed pollen is one of the most common allergens in the United States, and it’s effect is compounded in warmer temperatures.2

Direct Effects Natural System s Hum an System s