impact of the environment on conflict

8/3/2019 Impact of the Environment on Conflict

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B. Brooks

POLS 478: Causes of War

Valeriano

Climate Changes In A War Torn World:

Can Weather Affect Interstate War?

The world in which we live is constantly changing and shifting from many different

perspectives. One the most controversial in recent years is the change in the global

environment. Some scientists argue the world is becoming warmer while others argue

it is becoming cooler, or that weather patterns are simply shifting. The indisputable

fact of the matter is that there is a difference between the past climates versus that of

recent years. The causes of these changes are just as unclear as to exactly what

changes are occurring and to what extent.

Equally undeniable is that nations are struggling to to deal with the changes that are

occurring in the environment. Be it drought, or flood, heatwaves or unproductive

fishing grounds, there is significant stress involved and increasing use of resources to

deal with the crises and perceived environmental changes that are occurring. More

concerning in regard to the causation of war, are changes in the amounts of arable

land and natural boundaries such as rivers that could easily bring into question the


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borders of nations. Populations are dwindling due to diseases and starvation, possibly

leading to smaller, less well prepared militaries. Equally important are that these

stressors are causing unrest in the populace where they occur. Governments are

crumbling because they cannot provide food, shelter, and protection for their people.

Situations such as these could plausibly lead to anything from minor skirmishes to

inter-state wars, to global terrorism.

The causes of war and conflict as listed by scholars are numerous but many revolve

around the allocation of resources which gives rise to conflicts over territory. Yet how

can we as scholars adequately make the link of carbon emissions to increased

conflict? Initially it is vexing to attempt the correlation of environmental changes to

that of conflict initiation. The first task is to define the different stages or types of

conflicts that arise. It would seem to be an impossible undertaking to attempt to

directly link the increase of interstate wars with the change in the environment,

however the fall of a small nation's government giving rise to terrorist power grabs,

seems quite reasonable. Additionally, civil unrest, leading to civil war caused by a

shortage of water and inability to grow food, is also not a hard gap to bridge. The

inherent problem is that terrorist uprisings, domestic wars, and waging world war are

different conflicts and need differentiation. Certainly these types of conflicts are able

to lead to one another and arguably have done so in the past, but their classifications

should not be considered interchangeable. In the same way, dyadic wars and world

wars should not be categorized as the same types of conflicts. Because of the


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differences in the types of conflicts, their initiators and the scales on which they work,

for the purpose of this paper it behooves us to present a classification of wars and

conflicts.

Classification of Interstate War

In the interest of this dissertation, for identifying war we will rely on the classification

based off of the research that John A. Vasquez uses in his scholarly tome, The War

Puzzle Revisited. To say that his research on the subject is thorough does him

discredit; in his work, there is ample and exhaustive deliberation over the classification

of conflicts. Based on his research, we shall define the term war as, organized

sustained violence between two or more entities as an outgrowth of the political

process causing 1000 or greater human deaths. In this instance way we can

differentiate between conflicts and actual wars. More thoroughly and again to his

credit, Vasquez continues his dissection of the subject to divide between the types of

of war, however for the sake of this particular research project, there is not a single

type of war that is more or less important that the others.

Causes of Interstate War

From our definition, we have a basic grasp of the scope of what a war is but not what

is known to cause these large scale conflicts. Vasquez professes that there cannot be

a single explanation to the causes of all types of warfare. Indeed his studies,


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research, and analysis show that there are many different ways a nation goes from

disagreement to war. In the terms of interstate wars, there are four such conditions

that Vasquez identifies as causative criteria: territorial disputes, interstate rivalry, arms

races, and the formation of alliances.1

Vasquez spends significant literary real estate on the topic of territorial disputes as a

cause of war. This is because of the very significant findings of his research on the

topic. Vasquez's research shows that territorial issues ...have persistently dominated

warfare for almost 350 years. To further emphasize the importance of territorial

disputes, Table 1 from Vasquez shows quantitatively the amount of wars, at least

partially reasoned if not totally, that involve territorial disputes.

Historical Periods

Type of Issue I

(1648-1714)

II

(1715-1814)

III

(1815-1914)

IV

(1918-1941)

V

(1945- )

Territory 17 (77%) 26 (72%) 18 (58%) 22 (73%) 27 (47%)

Territoriality

Related Issues

2 4 8 6 19

Subtotal

Cumulative %

(86%) (83%) (84%) (93%) (79%)

None of the above 3 (14%) 6 (17%) 5 (16%) 2 (7%) 12 (21%)

Totals 22 36 31 30 58

Table 1: Frequency of wars involving a particular issue (Vasquez 2009)

1 Vasquez (2009) pp: 393


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Analysis of these figures shows that as time progressed their was a relatively steady

yet high rate of nations going to war over territorial dispute. Indeed, Vasquez shows

that even some other of his criteria (rivalry) are influenced by territorial dispute. If

territorial disputes provide such a powerful explanation, it stands that if territorial

boundaries shift or come into question, the nations who are involved in the dispute

would have a much higher likelihood of going to war.

Interstate rivalry is another major causation of war. We look to Diehl and Goertz's

operational definition of rivalry in order to best understand what Vasquez's steps to

war involve. Diehl and Goertz start by showing state rivalries have a propensity for

military conflict. Their second criteria is the use of an inductive method of identifying

and classifying rivalry to include the use of empirical patterns to identify rivals. On the

back of this Diehl and Goertz's third criteria for identifying interstate rivalry is a time-

density measurement versus militarized dispute. Their final criteria is a dyadic focus.

According to their research the condensed causes of rivalry include polarity, the dyad

or individual nation-states, and political shocks.2 Vasquez also provides input on this

topic from his text, by showing evidence that involvement in militarized disputes is a

contributing factor for rivals to continue with an onset to interstate war. Here he also

points out that territorial disputes are major point of contention between rivals

especially when they are contiguous states.3 Diehl and Goertz typify rivals based on

2 Diehl and Goertz (2000) pp: 39-51

3 Vasquez (2009) pp: 78-87


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their criteria and into three categories, shown in table 2. Of all of these rivalries, based

on the amount of conflicts and time involved in a rivalry, Diehl and Goertz enforce

Vasquez's claims that territorial disputes are a major contributing factor to the

causation of rivalrous wars, by showing that two of their five empirically important

rivalry criteria involve territory issues.4

Rivalry Type N (%)

Isolated 880 (76)

Proto 223 (19)

Enduring 63 (5)

6-13 disputes 36 (3)

> 13 disputes 27 (2)

Total 1166 (100)

Table 2: Rivalries Typified (Diehl and Goertz 2000)

Of Vasquez's four steps to war, the one that seems to be the most prominent and

consistent cause of the onset of interstate war is territorial dispute. However, in

combination, the steps increase the likelihood that two or more nations will end up

going to war with each other exponentially. But what about intrastate, or civil wars?

For all of his research, Vasquez does not give much regard to this type of conflict

admittedly because the research conducted for his The War Puzzle Revisited in-

depth study focuses almost exclusively on interstate wars.

4 Diehl and Goertz (2000) pp 58-59


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Defining Civil Wars

Since civil disputes, even wars are not addressed thoroughly in the context of the one

text, we must seek the definition from another point of view. James Fearon makes an

excellent definition of civil war in his article Iraq's Civil War. In this work, Fearon

describes civil war as a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups

that aim to take power at the center in a region, or to change government policies.

He continues, also acknowledging the benchmark of 1000 death casualties as one of

the defining factors of the term war itself, but does not make the direct connection of

civil war to this number. For the sake of simplicity in the paper, we shall make use of

the inferred connection to define any term for war to include the 1000 casualty clause.

However this still leaves us with the question of as to what the causes of civil wars

are.5

Causes of Civil Wars and other Internal Conflicts

Derived from our modified Fearon's definition, we catch the inference of a reason for

civil war as one group's attempt to overthrow the government in power. However,

whole populations do not spontaneously rise up one day and decide to change the

ruling regime, especially not through uncertain, violent means. What reasons do we

find to show why civil wars, that is one side trying to violently overthrow the other for

control, occur?

5 Fearon (2007)Iraq's Civil War


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Unlike the relatively firm causes of interstate wars, the tinder and fuel for civil wars

seems to be as heavily disputed as the topic of climate change. There is plethora

research studies on the subject attempting to pin-point the various causative factors of

intrastate conflict. Jeffery Dixon of Texas A&M University, using a comparative study

has compiled data from over 46 studies, covering 200 variables on the topic. In his

work, What Causes Civil Wars?: Integrating Quantitative Research Findings, he cites

the authors findings and provides his own analytical insight from a statistical

standpoint concerning both the causative and mitigating factors of civil war. In these

cases of analysis he uses the standard Pearson Correlation Coefficient to determine if

there is a statistical significance to the findings.

While there are few, if no, 100% percent solutions to the civil war equation, there are

some contributing factors that have very strong correlations. One such factor is the

demographics of a nation in regard to population density. Dixon finds in particular that

Table 3: Studies showing various demographic factors as a cause for civil war (Dixon 2009)


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increased population density proves to be a causative factor for civil war but only in

the circumstance that the entire nation have a evenly distributed high population

density. When the nation's population density is distributed unevenly, (that is high

density in certain areas, and low density in others) then the study indicates that the

population density does not contribute as greatly to a causation of civil war. In the

same vein, countries with higher populations are shown to have a greater propensity

for civil war. Ethnic heterogeneity was also found to be a significant factor in the

contribution of civil war and conflict however because there is no correlation between

a nation ethnicity and the change of the environment, it cannot warrant further mention

at this time. Table 2 summarizes Dixon's analysis on the effects of demographics as

a causative factor in civil war.

Dixon's findings continue with a study of geographical factors as a cause for civil

conflict. The findings here are significant leading to how the environment could, at

least indirectly, affect conflict within a nation. Here, Dixon's research shows that there

is a significant risk for nations in the Middle East and those in Asia for civil war.

Additionally, there is the factor of soil degradation which comes under the

environmental destruction category, another environmentally and climate affected

factor. The data findings here indicate that when there is a high level of soil

degradation, there is a significantly high chance of a civil war. Also in this category, is

the local water scarcity and fresh water per capita factors, which too are shown to be

significant contributors to civil war. Dixon comments on these factors that, in general,


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there is substantial evidence that severe environmental destruction is dangerous.

Table 3 shows Dixon's compiled findings on the effects of geography and

environmental factors in concern to the causation of civil war.

As one might suspect, Dixon also find thats weak or unstable governmental regimes

are very prone to civil war. Along those same lines, there is a strong negative

correlation with Gross Domestic Product and civil war. Conversely, there are other

factors with just as strong correlations, showing contributions which may mitigate the

causes off civil wars. Table 4 covers Dixon's overall findings in general terms and

gives us a good starting point with which to identify effective causes of civil wars. In

Dixon's research, environmental factors and weak government are shown to be the

largest escalatory factors in the onset of civil conflicts and wars.

Table 4: Geographic and environmental factors in the cause of civil wars (Dixon 2009)


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The Vital Link: Civil War and Interstate War

While not immediately apparent, and in many cases, said to be not correlated, there

has been little study to show that civil wars and interstate wars have much to do with

each other. More investigation however has provided evidence that civil war and

Table 5: Consensus determinants of civil war (Dixon 2009)


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international conflict are not only related, but correlate directly with the other. In a

study by Giacomo Chiozza et al., entitled, Civil War, Tenure, and Interstate

Insecurity, the team of researchers from different schools around the United States

find that there is, in fact, a trifecta relationship between civil war, international conflict,

and a nation's leader losing office. Sourcing the Correlates of War project and other

datasets on wars and conflicts, Chiozza et al. find that there is a two-way direct

correlation between civil armed conflicts/ wars and a nation's likelihood for involving

itself in interstate wars. Likewise, there is a two-way positive correlation between the

weakness of a state and a state's propensity to engage in civil conflict. However, there

is a two-way indirect correlation between the tenure of a state's leader and directly

engaging in interstate conflicts. That is to say, in the two-way direct correlations, when

one variable increases, the other increases and vice versa. Just the opposite is true in

the indirect correlation, that when a leader is involved in international war, their tenure

is reduced and vice versa. These correlational links show us that while typically

considered to be an in-house matter, civil war may very well lead to, or at the very

least contribute to, the risks of interstate war. The opposite relationship should be

considered as well. 6 It stands then, according to this circular logic presented by

Chiozza, that there could be an escalatory and reducing spiral effects between the

two-way factors. Chiozza does mention that how much these factors contribute to

conflict escalation or pacification seems to be dependent upon the nation, leader, and

governmental style of a particular nation. Overall however the study does not

address secondary relationships but focuses strictly on the adjacent factors. Most

6 Chiozza (2004) Civil War, Tenure, and Interstate Insecurity


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significant to the topic of this paper however, is that the link between civil war and

interstate war have been made. Therefore, we can theorize that any factor

contributing to civil war, then also has the ability to contribute to interstate war.

Though we can theorize the link between the two conflicts based on Chiozza's

research, the extent to which a causative factor of civil war influences the onset of

intestate war cannot at this time be determined without further and significant empirical

research.

Climate Change

The topic of climate change is itself a point of conflict and though not physically,

certainly a war from the viewpoint of it's advocates and critics. More specifically, the

topic of global warming is one of great and vehement dispute amongst scientists,

laypersons, and especially politicians. Some say, including United States Senator, Al

Gore, that global warming is a very real threat and cause for immediate action in the

case of reducing green house gas (GHG) emissions on a global level. In this case,

Sen. Gore had made it his personal mission to advocate green economies and

industry in an attempt to combat the threat of global warming7. Refuting the global

warming crisis however, are just as many scientists and prominent political figures as

there are those professing it.

One such scholar is MIT professor of Meteorology, Richard S. Lindzen. denies that the

7 algore.com


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crude idea of a greenhouse catastrophe is in fact occurring or inevitable and that

carbon dioxide concentrations have been increasing since the 1800s for a multitude of

reasons, though not the least of which is the burning of fossil fuels.8 Despite the

conflicts between the two camps the only substantiated statement is that there is not

enough data to support either claim. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration's data shows that while there is a change in climate, that it is not

extreme nor is it the anticipatedly warm trend.9 In a interview with the Wall Street

Journal's Anne Jolis, Gilbert Compo, a researcher assigned to NOAA's 20th Century

Reanalysis (V2) project, explained what can be interpreted from the vast database of

meteorologic measurements. In concern of global climate and weather pattern

changes, Gilbert is quoted, In the [theoretical] climate models, the extremes get more

extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years so we were surprised that

none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of

increased circulation going back to 1871.10

Evidence does not point to a increased

trend in climate change, but that

climate and temperature changes

are actually more of a constant, we

will have to consider the impacts of

different climate anomalies in their

respective regions in regard to the

influence of climate and

8 Lindzen (1992) Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus

9 NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data

10 Jolis (2011) The Weather Isn't Getting Weirder

Illustration 1: Geographic areas affected directly (red)

and indirectly (blue) by ENSO (Hsiang 2011)


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temperature changes in the

context of these phenomena

contributing to the causation of

wars.

How Climate Can Bring

Conflict?

Of course, it is not the El Nio or any other climate or weather phenomena itself that is

the direct cause of war. That is to say, the people of a nation do not go to war simply

because it is an El Nio year. For a many years, military experts, soldiers, and officers

alike have suspected that there is a direct correlation between the heat index of a

nation and it's propensity for conflict both internally and with it's neighbors. In other

words the suspicion has been that, the hotter the nation is on average, the more likely

there is to be war in those nations. There have been many studies and cataloged

incidents revolving around the impact of heat and how affects the human mind and

decision making. It seems too that there now is evidence to support the fact that

increased environmental factors such as those caused by the El Nio weather

anomalies, will even cause an increase in conflict. This was the basis of a study led

by Solomon Hsiang and associates of Columbia University. Entitled, Civil conflicts

are associated with global climate, Hsiang et al perform empirical research on the

history of El Nio years to see if there is a correlation between the years when civil

wars occurred in countries affected by the weather anomaly. The findings of the study

Table 6: Conflicts started during one-third most El Nio-

like years (Hsiang 2011)


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solidly show that there is an increase in civil conflict and war in countries that are

directly affected by El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The research was

conducted very thoroughly in order to ensure that findings from one continent in

particular did not skew the data. Likewise, the time periods tested preclude the years

immediately after World War II so that the creation of many new nations would not

adversely affect the research results. Starting with data from 1975 and going to 2004,

the study clearly shows that during El Nio years and seasons, there is a significant

increase in the amount of civil conflicts that occur in comparison to those in the control

group, La Nia years and seasons. Illustration 1 shows the areas of the globe directly

and indirectly affected by the ENSO phenomena. Red indicates the areas that are

directly impacted and thusly, according to the study, more prone to civil conflicts and

wars during the El Nio season. Hsiang continues with showing his findings of direct

correlation in time series regressions, linear and best fit model lines, and the bar graph

reproduced in Table 5. More importantly he attempts to explain this correlation

through the impact of the ENSO phenomena on the the GDP per capita of the affected

nations. Hsiang's argument here is that there are economic hardships in the directly

affected countries during the El Nio years. Here he reports the associated problems

with El Nio seasons including poor agricultural performance, increased tropical

cyclone activity and disease outbreak affect both non-agrarian societies and agrarian

societies alike. The study then cites Larrick and Timmerman, stating that altered

environmental conditions stress the human psyche, which can lead to aggressive

behavior. Hsiang closes by reiterating that El Nio can simultaneously lead to adverse

economic and psychological effects increasing the likelihood of conflict and calling for


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more research on the simultaneous global impact of ENSO phenomena on conflict

escalation.11 For all his groundbreaking research and suggestive evidence which

shows the impacts of ENSO on civil conflict onset, Hsiang's research does not shed

any light on the question of weather there is a correlation between climate change and

the causation of interstate wars.

But were the military superstitions then correct? If the temperature of the globe rises,

be it from an El Nio or any other phenomena, should we suspect an increase in

violent behavior? A study by Richard P. Larrick et al. shows that there may be some

credence to this hypothesis with an unrelated psychological study. In his 2011 study,

Larrick analyzes data from over 57,000 Major League Baseball games in order to find

a direct link to heat and retaliation. Despite a large amount of studies, attempting to

directly link human aggression to higher temperatures,12 Larrick instead finds a

distinct correlation between heat and retaliation. When a batter on a pitcher's team

was hit by an opposing pitch, there was a significant jump in the probability that an

individual from the opposing would be hit by a pitch as well when heat indexes were

higher. In fact, Illustration 2 shows the nearly linear, direct correlation of the two

incidences in regard to heat indices. While a significant finding in the field of human

psychology, it is not certain how this correlation would affect persons making decisions

at the strategic level unless no climate control was available to them. If it were to be a

significant factor in the decision to go to war, it is safe to say this factor would almost

11 Hsiang (2011) Civil Conflicts Are Associated With the Global Conflict

12 Anderson et al (1995)Hot Temperatures, Hostile Affect, Hostile Cognition, and Arousal... amongst many other studies


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certainly affect escalation of the rivalry between two dyads engaged in a rivalrous

relationships. This escalation or acceleration in rivalrous behavior, in turn, could

aggravate MIDs or even promote the approach to full-fledged war. In this case, there

would need to be more research performed in order to see if a consistent rise in

temperature would also cause an increase of retaliatory decisions at the national level.

Theoretical Influences Of the

Weather

Showing how influential the

existence of territorial dispute is

in regard to the likelihood that two

neighboring dyads may go to war

is possibly the easiest way to link

the influence of the changing

environment to that of the onset

of interstate war. In theory, a

nation that has natural borders

should not have to worry about

them changing very much over a

few years time. However, in the recent history, regardless of the claims of climate

change nay-sayers, there has been an increase in the water levels in some areas of

the globe. In others, there has been increasing desertification significantly in addition

Illustration 2: Predicted probability of a batter being hit as a

function of temperature and the number of the pitcher'steammates hit by the opposing team's pitcher earlier in the

game. (Larrick 2011)


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to disappearing rivers and streams. To be blunt, while there does seem to be climate

changes, the data tables that are available are mostly from the late 1990s and do not

accurately reflect the state of the world as it is and especially not the worst case

scenarios published in some late 20th century works13. However, this does not mean

that significant changes to geography may not occur due to environmental changes.

Vasquez shows that there is a significant amount of interstate war associated with

territorial disputes. Indeed this is one of the greatest contributors in the steps to war,

showing in some time periods 90% of wars being associated with territorial dispute

(refer to Table 1). The land itself is not necessarily the desirable asset but what can be

produced from the land or built on it is what give the territory its value. Additionally,

there may be a significant value in a mostly worthless piece of land resource wise, if it

provides military advantage. This is quite easily evidenced by the rampant colonialism

of European nations in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Those nations did not

colonize a country unless their was a reasonable expectation that the cost in military

personnel and gold would produce a significant return. Any of these appeal factors

however can change through the doomsday predictions of climate change. If ocean

levels and shoreline erosion become more problematic, not only may the square

footage of land become more scarce but the resources that can be gleaned from the

same land and its strategic values may change. Additionally, we would expect to see

island nations looking to increase their holdings of arable land in order to support their

populace. If the situation became dire enough it would not be surprising to see such a

13 Refer to http://www.grida.no/ for UNEP/GRID-Arendal compliations
http://www.grida.no/http://www.grida.no/


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nation looking for a weak neighbor to opportunistically assimilate. In the same vein, if

the borders of a nation were changed because of rising sea levels, there would very

likely be territorial disputes, especially if the new land shape proves to be economically

advantageous such as the case of a natural harbor. A difficult hypothesis to prove, the

best way to predict if such behavior would indeed come about would be to create a

simulation coastline where two nation's borders meet and see if what the conflict over

a loss of land would occur when a desirable coastal feature occurs on the boarder of

the two nations. According to Vasquez, we would expect to see contest over the land

feature and a high probability of the disputing nations going to war because of it,

especially when conjoined with Vasquez's other steps to war.

If there is an increase in desertification, increase in flooded areas, and other factors

that disturb the ability for a populace to produce sustenance for its people, we would

expect to see an increase of conflict as well. Indeed, these are the warnings put forth

in analysis of Homer-Dixon's work by Gleditsch and Urdal. In their work, entitled

Ecoviolence? Links Between Population Growth, Environmental Scarcity and Violent

Conflict in Thomas Homer-Dixon's Work, they state that while Homer-Dixon was

certainly attempting to show how a changing environment will cause problems for the

populace, it is because of supply-induced scarcities can cause violent intrastate

conflict. Here Gleditsch and Urdal state that bluntly that Homer-Dixon does not

foresee a rise in interstate conflict. However, Chiozza's findings show that a rise in

civil conflict may directly result in interstate conflict. Confirmed by both Homer-Dixon's


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and Chiozza is the fact that a weakened state government has a greater propensity for

civil war.

Conclusions

It is clear that the causes of interstate war can be defined through Vasquez's Steps to

War. Rivalry and territorial disputes are two of the largest contributors to the steps to

war with territory being the most inflammatory issue. Neither Vasquez's nor Diehl and

Goertz's studies attribute rivalry or territorial disputes to civil conflict, admittedly

because they were not trying to attribute these causes of war to civil conflict. Nor were

they considering the environment as a possible contributing factor to the causes of

war. However, in light of the other studies reviewed we find that there is evidence to

suggest that the change in the environment may also affect the interactions between

persons and between states. The increase in temperature can cause an increase in

retaliation, suggesting more aggressive behavior, especially dangerous in context of

rivalry. The decrease in land mass or the change of borders and shorelines due to

desertification and shifting shorelines could certainly give rise to territorial dispute.

Through Chiozza's research we see the causes of civil wars can also be attributed as

contributions of interstate war. From this new perspective, we find that drought,

population density, famine, and the allocation of wealth, all could be contributing

factors to the rise of wars, though to what extent is yet to be seen. Though there are a

myriad of conflicting reports about the truth of global warming, it is plausible that

environmental conditions can be a contributing factor to the causes of interstate war.


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