impact of the crisis on european workers
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Impact of the crisis on European workers. Assembling national trends and reports Guy Van Gyes UNI Europe Post&Logistics Conference, 26 September 2013, Evora (PT). Main sources. Eurofound reports: synthesis of national expert reports & available comparative statistics - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Impact of the crisis on European workers
Assembling national trends and reports
Guy Van Gyes
UNI Europe Post&Logistics Conference, 26 September 2013, Evora (PT)
2
Main sources
• Eurofound reports: synthesis of national expert reports & available comparative statistics– Wages and working conditions in the crisis (2011)– Impact of the crisis on working conditions (2013)– Contact person Eurofound:
[email protected]– My reading/interpretation of these reports (not
necessarily the view of the European agency)• CAWIE study (TURI-network; www.turi-network.eu):
wage&CB trends in the Euro-zone
3
Overview
• What has changed in the world of work?– Employment conditions– Career development and mobility– Working time and work-life balance– Work organisation and psychosocial risks– Health and well-being at work
• Policy role/reaction– Flexibilisation of labour regulation– Reforms of industrial relations system
• Alternative agenda – Strategic levers
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WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE WORLD OF WORK?
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Employment conditions• Job insecurity bites everywhere
– Strong increases in countries hard hit by crisis• EL: 31% convinced they will loose their job within the next six
months (EQLS, 2012)– Job insecurity trend less dramatic in Nordic countries;
• flexicurity DK: % job insecure only increased from 9 to 11%; unemployment with 3.8% to almost 8%
• Trends in temporary employment diverge– High start rate = decrease (ES, PL)– Reforms facilitating temporary contract: CZ, EE; LT, RO– Involuntary
• Wage freezing (not the first cost to cut)– Bail out countries: cuts => EL: 6.4% drop in average
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Career development and mobility
• Training:– Less career, more functional– State training investment => less polarisation; diminished ‘training
gap’• Less job mobility: People stick or have to stick to
their job• Migration patterns changed
– Emigration in Eastern Europe again on the rise– South + Ireland: again migrating– Migrant more hit by crisis in receiving countries
• Male more than female
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Working time and work-life balance
• Less work - lower average working hours - more part-time work - decline in overtime– Effect of short-time work schemes (saved jobs)
• Involuntary part-time; unpaid overtime• No expansion of working at unsocial hours• Work-life balance only under pressure in
countries hit hard by the crisis (ES, IE)• Gender gaps changing: male more hit by the
crisis
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Work organisation and psychosocial risks
• Increase of stress-at-work – Insecurity factor
• Work intensification ‘balanced’ by more job control in restructuring workplaces
• Conflict, bullying and violence rising problem (but crisis the cause?)
• No crisis-related policies
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Health and well-being at work
• Drop in absenteeism – Drop in accidents-at-work rate
• Job insecurity: effect on general health (suicide rates)
• Job satisfaction on the rise: ‘people more satisfied with what they have’
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Job insecurity and well-being
Very unlikely Unlikely Neither unlikely nor likely
Likely Very likely0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2007 - Prevalence % 2010 - Prevalence % 2007 - WHO-5 loss 2010 - WHO-5 loss
% P
reva
lenc
e
WH
O-5
loss
(%
poi
nts)
Reference category
• Need to continue monitoring (new results coming from various countries not
Influenced by the crisis Possible influence of the crisis – only in some sectors or some countries or some period of time – composition effect to be considered
Megatrends which “seems” to be fostered by the crisis
Job insecurity
Wages
Involuntary conditions of employment
Intensification of work
Lower rate of accidents
Overall job satisfaction
Increase of undeclared work
Temporary employment
Average weekly working hours
Work-life balance
Part-time work
Psychological risks (Stress)
Conclusion
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To conclude: trends
• Less work – more insecurity and stress – less choice and opportunities• Positive findings on other indicators (job satisfaction, absenteeism,
accidents, active jobs)– Reality or lowered expectations or composition effect (‘bad’ jobs
cut)?• More ‘scars’ to come
– Career penalty of a difficult entry in the labour market– Effect of enduring job insecurity on well-being– What kind of new jobs? Jobs cut in industry: what will be the
replacement jobs• Not all in it together
– Particular countries– Particular groups (low-skilled, young, migrants)
Countries: Changes in GDP and uneployment
Very strong economicchange
Strong economic change
Better economic situation
Changes in regulationsabout working conditions and/or employment reforms
Job insecurity
Temporary involuntary
workInvoluntary part-time
Intensity at work (various
indicators)Work-life balance Absenteeism
Job satisfaction
Poland - ++ = na + + =Germany = = + = - - ++Austria = + + - - na -Italy - - - = - + naEstonia - na - na na + +Portugal -- - - na na + +Spain -- - -- - - na ++Ireland -- --- --- - - na +Lithuania -- -- -- = na = naGreece --- - -- na na na na
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POLICY ROLE/REACTIONS
Policy reactions 1 (2008-2009)
• Short working-time measures as positive reaction to counter the employment shock in the first crisis period
• Focus on employment measures (cf. training)• Social partners discussions: very polarised and
not in driving position• Employers: flexibilisation; too high labour
costs; Unions: fear of precariousness; wages/income as driver
Policy reaction 2: re-installment neo-liberal mantrasMainstream explanations and policy conclusions
20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten
Explanation: Crisis is a crisis of competitiveness Wages are the main variable for
competitiveness Labour market rigidities hamper adaptation
and increase unemployment
Policy conclusion: Structural reforms at the labour market
and in the wage-setting systems
Policy reactions 2a: flexibilisation strategies
Table 12: Crisis policy reforms related to working conditions Overview of reported reforms in national contributions with impact on working
conditions (excluding wages and training)
Easing of employment protection legislation
Facilitating temporary contracts
Liberalising working time
regulation
More strict rules for sickness leave/benefit
Greece x x
Italy x x
Spain x x
Portugal x x x
Estonia x x
Lithuania x x x
Romania x x x
Hungary x
Czech Republic
x
Poland x
Norway has also introduced more strict rules for sickness leave benefits; not included: short work schemes, wage interventions and training policies Source: national contributions
1. Analysis: Most significant changes in industrial relations practices:
Dr. Thorsten Schulten
Reforms of collective bargaining 2009-2013:Termination/Abolition of national collective bargaining
More possibilities for companies to derogate from sectoral agreements
Priority for company agreements; abolition of the favourability principle
Stricter rules for extension of collective agreementsReduction of the after-effect of collective agreementsCompany agreements signed by non-union representatives
Beyond? Inclusive growth, flexicurity, sustainable work, …• No reports (yet) of ‘spectacular’ innovations• Deriving from the report
– Continued and increased attention to psychosocial risks key– Segmentation between a core and peripheral workforce is
enforced in recent years at many places. Flexibilisation means ‘more’ for the first and ‘less choice’ for the latter.
– The different gender effect of the crisis – males are hit harder by the crisis - leads to new challenges, but maybe also to new solutions to improve gender equality.
– Restructuring and downsizing is a fact of stress and insecurity, but it creates also opportunities to make transformations in job design and work organisation in order to strive for ‘active, smarter, sustainable work’ instead of ‘passive, strained, stressful work’.
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To conclude: policy perspective
• Crisis policy reforms in East and South => flexibilisation effect => more to work?– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisering working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave
• Where is the ‘security’ aspect? Where are ‘quality of work measures’ to promote ‘sustainable work’
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Crisis context• Less work = less choice = more insecurity = less reward• Definite breakthrough – European level of socio-economic
governance– Beggar-thy-neighbour policies– German wage dumping leadership– Dismantling (?) of Southern model of social dialogue
• Flexibilisation policies are on the rise again (East & South), not flexicurity– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisation working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave
3. Wages and the Euro Crisis Alternative Agenda for European Wage PolicyInternational Labour Organisation (ILO) Collective bargaining as a core instrument for economic, industrial, employment and social policy Strengthening of collective bargaining at all levels strengthening of mechanism to extend sectoral agreements and to increase bargaining coverage strengthening of minimum wages which should guarantee decent wage levels promoting not wage competition but (real) wage developments inline with productivity
20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten
3. Wages and the Euro Crisis Alternative explanations and policy conclusions
20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten
Explanation: Wages are not the main reason for lack
competitiveness or economic imbalances in Europe
Real wage developments lagging behind productivity growth dampen domestic demand and a produce deflationary spiral of downward wages competition
Current EU policy of austerity and structural reforms accelerate deflationary wage competition and promotes economic stagnation
Collectively agreed wages and labour productivity in the Euro area 2000 = 100
20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten
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• Transnational wage policy– Coordination exist already (only without the union and narrow-
based; German wage leadership)• Taking wages out of competition = solidaristic wage policy• “uses a deliberate, centrally force to counteract … the centrifugal force
of the market, i.e. its tendency towards wage differentiation• Demand-driven economic growth= income of the middle classes is
driving the world economy growing inequality
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Crisis context• Less work = less choice = more insecurity• Definite breakthrough – European level of socio-economic
governance– Beggar-thy-neighbour policies– German wage dumping leadership– Dismantling (?) of Southern model of social dialogue
• Flexibilisation policies are on the rise again (East & South), not flexicurity– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisering working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave