impact of low interest rates on european insurers dermot corry june 8 th 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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Impact of Low Interest Rates on European Insurers
Dermot Corry
June 8th 2015
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• Context• UK/Ireland• Germany• Non Life• Solvency II
Agenda
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European Insurance Assets (€m)
Bonds Loans incl Mortgages
Other -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Non-LifeLife
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“Weak European midsized life insurers face a high and rising risk of distress”
IMF – April 2015
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“24 percent of insurers may not be able to meet their solvency capital requirements under a prolonged low interest rate scenario”
EIOPA Stress Test
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Bundesbank Discussion paper 2014
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Financial Times – April 2015
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ECB Financial Stability Review – May 2015
“Despite the solid profitability reported so far, euro area insurers are facing growing challenges as the low-yield environment has tested their traditional reliance on fixed income assets as a means of generating portfolio returns.”
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Long term rate context
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10 year bond yields
Jan-93
Aug-93
Mar-94
Oct-94
May-95
Dec-95
Jul-96
Feb-97
Sep-97
Apr-98
Nov-98
Jun-99Jan
-00
Aug-00
Mar-01
Oct-01
May-02
Dec-02
Jul-03
Feb-04
Sep-04
Apr-05
Nov-05
Jun-06Jan
-07
Aug-07
Mar-08
Oct-08
May-09
Dec-09
Jul-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Apr-12
Nov-12
Jun-13Jan
-14
Aug-14
Mar-15
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
UK 10 year German 10 yearSource: ECB
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10 year Eurozone AAA rate
6/1/2
005
9/7/2
005
12/14/2
005
3/22/2
006
6/28/2
006
10/4/2
006
1/10/2
007
4/18/2
007
7/25/2
007
10/31/2
007
2/6/2
008
5/14/2
008
8/20/2
008
11/26/2
008
3/4/2
009
6/10/2
009
9/16/2
009
12/23/2
009
3/31/2
010
7/7/2
010
10/13/2
010
1/19/2
011
4/27/2
011
8/3/2
011
11/9/2
011
2/15/2
012
5/23/2
012
8/29/2
012
12/5/2
012
3/13/2
013
6/19/2
013
9/25/2
013
1/1/2
014
4/9/2
014
7/16/2
014
10/22/2
014
1/28/2
015
5/6/2
0150.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Source: ECB
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• Generally well matched• Primarily SP business• So little ALM loss• However
– Attractiveness of Annuities– Government action– Alternative options
• Impact on Longevity capital • Search for yield
Implications for Ireland/UK
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Need to live for ? Years to get return of capital
A: 15-17B: 18-20C: 21-23D: 24+
At Age 65
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Need to live for ? Years to get return of capital
24
So investment return earned after age 89
At Age 65
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• €90bn premium per annum (life only)• €868bn in assets (life)• 560 insurers • 212,000 employees• Heavily dependant on guaranteed business
Focus on the German market
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Market Shares – IMF report
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• Regular Premium• Long duration – often pension• Guaranteed return on net premium
– Guarantee set at outset and applies for duration• Assets invested in bonds
– Shorter than liabilities– Don’t deal with reinvestment risk, though larger
insurers use swaptions • Excess of earned investment return paid out as
annual bonus
Typical German with profits
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Guarantee based on 10 year average
Jan-93
Jul-93Jan
-94Jul-9
4Jan
-95Jul-9
5Jan
-96Jul-9
6Jan
-97Jul-9
7Jan
-98Jul-9
8Jan
-99Jul-9
9Jan
-00Jul-0
0Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-150.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Average prior 10 years
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Guarantee based on 10 year average
Jan-93
Aug-93
Mar-94
Oct-94
May-95
Dec-95
Jul-96
Feb-97
Sep-97
Apr-98
Nov-98
Jun-99Jan
-00
Aug-00
Mar-01
Oct-01
May-02
Dec-02
Jul-03
Feb-04
Sep-04
Apr-05
Nov-05
Jun-06Jan
-07
Aug-07
Mar-08
Oct-08
May-09
Dec-09
Jul-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Apr-12
Nov-12
Jun-13Jan
-14
Aug-14
Mar-15
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Average prior 10 years 60% of Average
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Guarantee based on 10 year average
Jan-93
Aug-93
Mar-94
Oct-94
May-95
Dec-95
Jul-96
Feb-97
Sep-97
Apr-98
Nov-98
Jun-99Jan
-00
Aug-00
Mar-01
Oct-01
May-02
Dec-02
Jul-03
Feb-04
Sep-04
Apr-05
Nov-05
Jun-06Jan
-07
Aug-07
Mar-08
Oct-08
May-09
Dec-09
Jul-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Apr-12
Nov-12
Jun-13Jan
-14
Aug-14
Mar-15
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Average prior 10 years 60% of Average Guaranteed Rate
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Guarantee based on 10 year average
Jan-93
Jul-93Jan
-94Jul-9
4Jan
-95Jul-9
5Jan
-96Jul-9
6Jan
-97Jul-9
7Jan
-98Jul-9
8Jan
-99Jul-9
9Jan
-00Jul-0
0Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4Jan
-150.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Average prior 10 years 60% of Average Guaranteed Rate 10 year German Bond yield
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• Assets held at book value• Liabilities held at retrospective value• Bonus paid from
– Earned interest– Realised gains/losses– Profits from mortality/expense
• Squeeze as earned rates decline– Supported by realised gains
Reserving
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ERGO sample figures
Source: Munich Re Analysts Conference March 2015
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• Conveniently called ZZR• Introduced in 2012 • Aims to reserve for prospective issues• €21bn across the market• NPV of guarantees in excess of reference rate for
next 15 years• Reference rate based on average of last 10 years
AAA rate• Funded to date by Unrealised gains
Zinszusatzreserve
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• Reference Rate will fall even if rates rise
• Ergo expect ZZR to increase by €900m this year
Possible reference rate path
Source: ERGO/Munich Re
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• Further rate hedging• Search for yield• Greater share of mortality profits to
policyholders• Restrictions on new business• Withdrawal from with profits• Focus on UL/other products• Limits on dividends out of profit sharing account
Some actions taken
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• Issues not as significant• However reduced yield increases pressure
– Assets are 3.4 time premiums– 1% fall in yield requires 3.4% increase in COR to
compensate– Falls to date imply 10% increase in COR
• PPOs will accentuate the issues
Non-Life
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• Some exceptional circumstances• Reduces real yield for calculation of lump sum
payment from 3% to 1%• Substantial increase to reserves as a result• But actual real yield at end of March 2015 was
close to -1.00%
Russell Judgement
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Huge impact from low yields
Real Yield 3% Real Yield 1% Real Yield -1% -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Value of 100 per annum for 50 years with different real yields
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• Will look at three key points:– Interest Rate shock– Ultimate Forward Rate/Last Liquid Point– Transitionals
Solvency II
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• Shock is a proportional shock up or down to interest rates
• At 10 years the shocks are– Up 42%– Down 31%
• 1.3%/1% when Solvency 2 designed• At Q1 2015 0.19%/0.14% (Risk free rate 0.46%)• Since Q1 rate has increased by 0.63%!
Interest Rate Shock
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• LLP – Last Liquid Point• UFR – Ultimate Forward rate (4.2%)• Discount rate converges to UFR after LLP• LLP and convergence period vary by currency
Ultimate Forward Rate
Currency Euro Dollar Sterling Swedish Krona
LLP 20 50 50 10
Convergence 40 40 40 10
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At Q1 2015 impact is large
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
Market Rates UFR/LLP
Table shows Spot Rate for appropriate duration
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Impact on liability of 100
Duration 20 years 30 years 40 years 50 years
Value with no LLP/UFR
86 79 73 69
Value with UFR/LLP
86 68 46 31
% Reduction 0% -14% -36% -55%
All based on Euro at end March 2015
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• Solvency II is being implemented gradually• Can use transitional
– Blend in rates over 16 years; or– Blend in TP over 16 years
• Means that we will not have completely comparable figures until 2032
Transitionals
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• There are real guarantee issues in Europe• This is on the radar of key global bodies• Some recognition in German regulatory
accounts• But not market consistent• Solvency II fudges the long term guarantees
Summary