Impact of global mitigation pathways

on the economy of energy exporting regions:

The case of Central Asia

Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Austria

IAMC Meeting, Tsukuba, Japan 3 Dec 2019

Behnam Zakeri, Volker Krey, Holger Rogner, Clara Orthofer, Julian Hunt, Keywan Riahi

• MESSAGEix integrated assessment model (IAM)

• Spatial resolution and regional disaggregation

• Scenarios and results

• Challenges and solutions

Agenda

2 31 December 2019

• Since 1980s used for assessing sustainable development and

energy/climate policies at national, regional and global scales

• MESSAGEix a systems engineering, optimization model

• MESSAGEix is an open, powerful, and flexible modeling framework for modeling

Sustainability transformations

• Documentation:

https://MESSAGEix.iiasa.ac.at

• Open-source GitHub repository:

• https://github.com/iiasa/message_ix

A tool for energy policy assessment

MESSAGEix Modeling Framework

3 31 December 2019

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/)

MESSAGEix at the centre

IIASA’s IAM: MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

4 31 December 2019

Why splitting model regions?

Regional Disaggregation

• Heterogeneity of energy systems presented under one model region

- Energy resources, demand, technology mix, etc.

- Energy policies, development status, etc.

• Limited flow of energy inside a region due to transmission bottlenecks

• Need for detailed focus on one or

a group of countries in a global context

5 31 December 2019

Global MESSAGE 11 Region

Global MESSAGE 14 Region

After disaggregation

NAM

MEA

LAM

BMUEEUWEU

PAO

AFR

CPA

RUS

PAS

SAS

CASSCS

From 11 to 14 model regions

Regional Disaggregation (2)

1. Central Asian States (CAS): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

2. Russian Federation (RUS)

3. South Caucasus States (SCS)

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia

4. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine (BMU)

6 31 December 2019

A Spatial Hierarchy Method

Disaggregation Process

• Model parameters can be defined at different spatial levels

• Flexibility for defining networks and trade possibilities

Example of use cases:

• Sub-national electricity grids

• Regional energy markets

• Bound on emissions at different levels

• Linkage with other models at a higher aggregation

level

7 31 December 2019

country I

Country II

Subregion B

Subregion A

Region 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

11 Region

Level 1: Region

New region 2

New region 1

New region 3New region 4

Level 2: New regions

Copying parameters

(e.g., energy

technology data)

Downscaling and new

input data

(e.g., demand,

resources, vintage

capacity, etc.)

Trade links

Remaining

parameters at

the region

level Direct trade

Old Model

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

10+4 Region

New Model

Country-level

datasets

1 2

3

Modelling process: Transfer of parameter,

sets, relations, input data, etc.

Trade: flow of commodities

Non-physical (illustrative) border

An automatic algorithm for parameterization

Disaggregation Process (2)

More detailed representation of gas trade in the region

Input Data and Scenarios

10 31 December 2019

• Historical energy balances: IEA Statistics

• Vintage capacity of power plants and planned capacities (PLATTS, CARMA Database)

• Renewable energy resource potentials (hydro, wind and solar): NREL, IRENA, IMAGE Model

• Fossil energy resources (BGR, USGS, and GEA)

• Detailed representation of gas interconnectors

Two scenarios

Reference: based on SSP2 assumptions

P2C: A 2C scenario including current policies and NDCs

image: moneyweek.com

Reference (REF) 2-degree (P2C)

Results: Installed Power Capacity

11 31 December 2019

➔ Short-term dynamics (2020-2050) vs. Reference

• More than 200 GW renewable capacity until 2050

• Phaseout of coal capacity until 2050

• Gas remains after 2050 mainly for balancing and reserves

0

50

100

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450

2010

2015

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2095

2100

GW

0

50

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2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

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2095

2100

GW

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NDC P2C

Difference compared to REF (2020-2050)

GW

Reference (REF) 2-degree (P2C)

Results (2): Final Energy

12 31 December 2019

➔ Short-term dynamics (2020-2050) vs. Reference

• Reduction of energy use (up to 35% annually)

• Replacement of fossil fuels with DH and electricity

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010

2015

2020

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2035

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2045

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2055

2060

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Fin

al e

ne

rgy [

EJ]

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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2060

2065

2070

2075

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Fin

al e

ne

rgy [

EJ]

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

NDC P2C

Difference compared to REF (2020-2050)

Exajo

ule

[E

J]

Reference (REF) 2-degree (P2C)

Results (3): Resource Extraction

13 31 December 2019

➔ Short-term dynamics (2020-2050) vs. Reference

• Reduction of fossil fuel production up to 43% in 2050

• Significant reduction of crude oil and coal exports

• Gas production and exports less affected by the mid century

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exajo

ule

[E

J]

Exajo

ule

[E

J]

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EJ

Unconv. gas

Conv. gas

Unconv. oil

Conv. oil

Coal

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exajo

ule

[E

J]

Difference between P2C and REF

Cumulative investment needs (2020-2050) (billion$2010)

Results (4): Investment needs

14 31 December 2019

• NDC commitments only marginally affect

the overall investment structure

• Total capital demand in P2C slightly

higher than in REF

• Replacement of upstream fossil fuel

with best available technology

billio

n U

SD

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

REF NDC P2C

Energy efficiency

T&D and storage

Nuclear

Renewables

Fossil CCS and hydrogen

Fossil fuel (extraction andconversion)

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Fossil fuel(extraction

andconversion)

Fossil CCSand

hydrogen

Nuclear Renewables T&D andstorage

Energyefficiencyb

illio

n$

20

10

P2C vs. REF

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Final energy Intensity(MJ/$2010 GDP)

Energy expenditure perGDP

Total cost of energy sectorper GDP

CO2 emissions per GDP(kg/$2010 GDP)

Share of non renewables inFE

Energy exports per PE

REF P2C

Impact of mitigation on energy affordability, environment, and energy security)

Results (5): Indicators

15 31 December 2019

• 27% higher cost of the energy system

• 25% higher energy expenditure for end users

• Lower energy and emission intensity

• Lower energy exports

• Higher share f renewable energy

P2C vs. REF

Final Note

16 31 December 2019

• Regional results and implications for each country

• Countries have conflicting water and energy needs

- upstream countries need hydropower for electricity in winter

- downstream countries need water for irrigation in summer

• Vision for regional energy markets not clear

Water-Energy Conflict in Central Asia

Next step:• Developed a multi-country MESSAGEix model of the region

• Increasing sub-annual time steps in this model

• Modeling the operation of hydropower and water flow

• Parameterization of the regional model in iteration

Interpretation and feasibility of the results

17 31 December 2019

• Regional results and implications for each country

• Countries have conflicting water and energy needs

- upstream countries need hydropower for electricity in winter

- downstream countries need water for irrigation in summer

• Vision for regional energy markets not clear

• A multi-country model

• Impact of energy use on irrigation

• Role of different storage solutions and

time-shifting of energy-water use

Water-Energy Conflict in Central Asia

IIASA‘s Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)

• 50 international students working under the supervision of IIASA staff

• 1 June - 31 August, in Laxenburg, Austria

• Open to advanced graduate studentswhose interests (and dissertation) correspond to IIASA‘s research

• Goal: publishable journal article

• Funding available from IIASA‘s national member organizations

• On-line application www.iiasa.ac.at/yssp

• Next application deadline: 11 January 2020

YSSP in the ENE Program

Focus area topics:

• Integrated Assessment, energy transformation pathways and transition to a net-zero emissions society

• Environmental impacts of the energy system, greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control

• Energy Access, poverty and decent living

• Energy security analysis and fossil fuel subsidies

• Integrated assessment of the water-energy-land nexus and climate impacts on the energy system

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Energy/yssp1.html

Thank you very much for your attention!

This presentation is licensed undera Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Dr. Behnam ZakeriResearch Scholar – Energy Program

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria

zakeri@iiasa.ac.at