Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and allied sectors

By C. Pradipa

Ph.D Scholar

CC & Agriculture

15% of export earnings

CC - Affect crop yields (both positively and negatively)

Food security

Increase in CO2 + Increase in Temperature

Increase in Sea level

Extreme weather events

Fertilizer Use Efficiency + Green House Gas emission

Change in crop water requirement

Population dynamics of pest and disease

Quality of Agricultural Produces

Fluctuation in food production

Possible effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

Source-Ramakrishna, 2004

Crop Productivity

1. Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide

Fertilization effect on C3 crops

2. Increase in temperature

Reduce crop duration

Increase crop respiration

Alter photosynthate partitioning to economic products

Survival and distributions of pest populations - developing

new equilibrium between crops and pests

Hasten nutrient mineralisation in soils

Decrease fertilizer use efficiency and

Increase ET

Impact on Crop Production

• Countries in the Sahel region of West Africa need to switch to more heat

and drought-tolerant crops- sorghum and millet

• Rice yields in Bangladesh will decline by more than 20% by 2050 and 50%

by 2070

• Temperature rise by 2.3 to 3.8 C and increased rainfall by 2050 will affect:

>30% reduction in sugarcane yield in Maharashtra

>12% decline in rice production in Orissa

•Warming may reduce the growing season in some species (potato)

and increase water requirements with consequences for yields

•Other species (sugar beet) will benefit from both warming and the

increase in CO2 concentrations

•C3 Forage and fodder crops – yield increases

•DMP - increases

Positive impacts

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in India

Source: IARI

Temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice yields. Eastern regions - most impacted by increased

temperatures & decreased radiation, resulting in relatively

fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations.

CO2 effect - nullified by an increase of temperature

different growth stages - impact on yields +2oC - minimal -early vegetative stages

- maximum - flowering and grain-filling stages

Source: IARI

Priya and Geethalakshmi (2008)

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 40

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

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•Concentration of CO2 doubles

soybean yields could increases upto 50 %

•Increase in CO2+ increase in temperature

soybean yields could actually decrease.

•Maximum and minimum temperatures go up by 1°C and 1.5°C

respectivelythe gain in yield comes down to 35 per cent.

Effect of CC on Soybean

Source: Centre for science & Environment

In briefAgricultural productivity in India is climate sensitive

Wheat, barley, sorghum, arhar and maize get negatively

affected due to climate sensitivity

Threaten food security in India.

CC & Horticulture

Impacts of climate change on the area suitable for cultivation :projections using the HADCM3 and CCCMA

CropSpecies Change in Suitable

Area HADCM3 (%) Change in Suitable Area CCCMA (%)

Apple Malus domestica -21.38 -3.42

Banana Musa accuminata Colla -2.53 5.60

Lemon Citrus limon (L.) Burm. f. -14.41 -5.17

Sweet orange Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck -0.41 4.50

Strawberry Fragaria x ananassa (D.) G. -39.25 -24.33

Plantain Musa balbisiana Colla -6.72 -3.05

Potato Solanum tuberosum L. -3.55 6.80

Shift in Agriculture

Apple cultivation is affected in Kullu Valley

Apple belt has moved 30 Km nothwards

Forest resources were removed

Soil ProductivityAccelerated decomposition of organic matter, which releases the nutrients in

short run, but may reduce the fertility in the long run.

Chemical reactions- strongly influenced by higher soil and water temperature.

The doubling of CO2

increases plant biomass production,

soil water use efficiency by the plants, and

C/N ratios of plants.

The changes in the C/N ratios - affect the production of trace gases NOx and

N2O.

• Pest– Warmer climate

• Pest population– enhanced re-production

• Disease– Bacteria, Virus, Fungi– Favo s hot and humid environment– In some regions

• more disease occurrence• Or may difficult to control

Weeds18 worst weeds, out of which 14 are C4 plants

can withstand TC3 plants optimum T 15-20 0CC4 plants optimum T 25- 30 0C

Pig weed (Amaranthus)- C43 0C T 240 times increase in biomass

Reduced yield, high cost of production2 0C T 30% reduction in crop yield only due to changes of population dynamics of P, D & W

Insects, Disease and pests

Severe in tropical regions - favorable climate/weather

conditions, multiple cropping and availability of alternate pests

throughout the year.

Plant disease - establishment, progression and severity

If the rise in winter temperature - the duration of hibernation of

pests may decrease - increasing their activity.

Uncongenial areas for pests due to low temperature at present -

suitable due to rise in temperature.

Insects could adapt to slow changes

Elevated temperature and CO2 concentration

Combined infestation of pests and diseases

Higher threat perception of late blight (Phytophthora

infestans) disease of potato

Important diseases of rice, namely blast (Pyricularia oryzae)

and sheath blight (Rhizoctonia solani).

82% losses in attainable yield -cotton

Over 50% losses for other major crops

Yield reduction - 20% in the principal food and cash crops

world- wide

CROP QUALITYCLIMATE CHANGE & APPLES TASTE

Increase in temperature During bud breaking and blooming times of the

fruit, may advance of bud breaking and full bloom in

apples specifically during the maturation period

Taste and texture of apples -changed

Source: The Hindu dated : 22nd August

2013

Impact of climate change on Livestock

Indirect effects

Protein and mineral deficiency leading to infertility

and other metabolic diseases.

Direct effects

Low feed intake.

Too high levels of infertility

Low conception rates

Long calving intervals

Cross breeds - vulnerable to heat stress

Feed intake reduces

Leading to less milk production

Altered milk composition

Delayed onset of puberty

Declined conception rate

Increased incidence of silent heat and anoestrous

Ovulation failure

Early embryonic deaths

Higher incidence of diseases like mastitis

More prevalence of pest, insects and parasitic diseases.

Direct effects:1. Animal health, growth, production and reproduction.

Indirect Effects:2. Livestock pastures, forage crop production, quality &

price3. Heat stress

4. Biodiversity

5. Emergence or re-emergence & Changes in the distribution of livestock diseases and pests;

6. Immune system.

Climate affects animal production in Six ways

(Hayhoe et al., 2007)

Predicted DMI & Milk ProductionRun Temp.

oCHumidity%

Night Temp. oC DMI,kg

Milk, lbs.

1 15 50 10 22.13 85.3

2 32 50 15 21.41 77.8

3 32 70 15 21.14 73.1

4 32 70 24 18.05 57.7

5 32 70 24 18.51 65.7

Runs with the CNCPS model for a 1,400 lb. dairy cow* Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS)

(Chase, 2006)

Effect on reproduction

Effect on male reproduction

• Inverse correlation b/w environmental ozone & sperm conc.

• Decrease sperm motility

• Increased no. of dead sperm

• Increased abnormal morphology of sperm. eg. abnormal acrosome

• Decreased total protein & albumin conc.

• Decreased level of testosterone

(Sokol, 2006)

• Conception rates declines in Bos taurus cattle for

temperatures above 23.4 °C and at high values of

THI.

(Amundson et al.,

2005)

Effect on female reproduction

Relationship b/w Temp. & Pregnancy Rate

(Klinedinst et al. 1993)

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Effect on embryo:– Reduce embryo proportion development.

– Retarded fetal growth.

– Reduced vascular perfusion to placental bed.

– Reduced oxygen ,water, nutrient, hormone supply to embryo.

– Reduced excessive damaging heat away from embryo.

– Intrauterine growth retardation produce Dwarf & stunted offspring with skeletal abnormality.

– One fetus of heat stressed twin is 20% smaller than littermate.

contd…

• Reduced placental growth produce heat stunted offspring.

• Hyperthermia produce fetal malformation.

• 50% of cattle embryo die under natural condition due to decreased blood supply to oviduct.

• Heat stress between 8-16 days after insemination reduce conceptus wt & increase fertility failure.

• Thermally induced alteration in conceptus protein involved in embryo development & pregnancy recognition.

• Alteration in uterine endometrial secretion.

• A rise in 1.50C in core temp cause death of embryo.

Climate change and pathogens

• Climate affects pathogen development time & survival.

• Longer Summer increase the number of pathogen’s life cycles.

• Milder winters increase pathogen survival.• Climate change affect disease seasonality.• Affect dispersal.

FMD virus Anthrax bacillus Hook Worm

Climate change and hosts

• Immunity to disease linked to weather & UV exposure.

• Rapid spread of pathogens may expose native populations to new diseases.

• Newly-exposed populations may also suffer from lack of ‘endemic stablility’ to certain diseases.

Evidence for climate change’s effects on infectious disease: bluetongue

“The spread of bluetongue & its vectors presents some of the strongest evidence to date that climate change is driving vector-borne diseases into new regions, as warming and disease spread have occurred at the same times in the same places”

Bluetongue: vector-borne disease of ruminants transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides)

Van Dijk & Baylis, 2007

Effect on immune system

Local and systemic effects:

• Stratospheric ozone depletion -UV-B (290-320 nm), the most

biologically destructive wavelengths.

(Longstreth,

1990)

• An average 2% rise in UV-B per 1% drop in stratospheric ozone, increasing the risk of cataracts, skin cancers, immuno suppression & susceptibility to infection.

(Hoffman, 1991)

Impact of CC on PoultryInclude fowl, turkey, duck, goose, ostrich, guinea fowl

Poultry & CC• High temperature conditions –

– Alter their behavior and physiological homeostasis seeking

thermoregulation

– Decreasing body temperature.

– spend less time feeding,

– more time drinking and panting,

– more time with their wings elevated,

– less time moving or walking, and

– more time resting.

– changes of reproductive hormones levels and of intestinal calcium uptake

Panting :Leads to increased carbon dioxide levels and higher blood pH (i.e., alkalosis),

Which in turn hampers blood bicarbonate availability for egg shell

mineralization

Induces increased organic acid availability, also decreasing free calcium levels

in the blood.

This process is very important in breeders and laying hens, as it affects egg shell

quality

impairs overall poultry and egg production

In females

•Heat stress can disrupt the normal status of reproductive hormones at the hypothalamus,

and at the ovary

•Leading to reduced systemic levels and functions

•Due to the involvement of the thyroid during the onset of puberty and reproductive

function in birds

•Disruption of thyroid activity by heat stress would be expected to have an effect on

reproductive performance of the hens

(Rozenboim, 2007; Elnagar et al., 2010)

In male

•Semen volume Sperm concentration

•Number of live sperm cells and Decreased motility

(McDaniel et al.,2004)

Reduced lymphoid organ weights

Lower relative weights of thymus and spleen (layers)

Reduced antibody response

Educed liver weights in laying hens

Increase in heterophil: lymphocyte ratio, due to reduced numbers of circulating

lymphocytes and higher numbers of heterophils

Increased levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS)

Decreased the proportion of breast muscle, while increasing the proportion of

thigh muscle in broilers.

Undesirable meat characteristics and quality loss

Impact of climate change on fisheries

Fish catch might increase along the Indian coast including Tamil

Nadu - as a result of CC

Increased wind strength stirs up deep water and increases the

upwelling of nutrients into surface waters where it supports

increased phytoplankton (algae) production.

Increases in phytoplankton production of 300% were recorded

between 1997 and 2004.

This increased availability of food at the base of the food web

should boost fish production.

An increase in fish catch by more than 50% can be anticipated.

Ocean acidification impacts: Reduction of animals’ ability to produce shells and skeletons

interference with fish navigation

Mussel, oyster and shellfish growth affected by shell- thinning

and increased mortality

Coral reef damage will affect fishery production in tropical

region

Shifts in Species Distribution

Extreme Changes at Range Boundaries

Habitat Shrinkage

Climate Change Predictions

• Poleward shifts in distribution of marine resources.

• Extreme changes at range boundaries of certain species

(uncertainty in numbers and extent).

• Habitat shrinkage of northern species and replacement by southern

species.

• Earlier spring events and later autumn events.

• Risks of large-scale, possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be

quantified.

Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.

Thank

you

The climate change will have impact on agricultureAgriculture is the livelihood for most of the Indian population The country should set up a National Food Security Board, to be headed by the Prime Minister, and establish at least 50 huge modern storages to build stocks of food grains to counter any emergency.