Building resilient communities through urban planning

and the integration of the Natural Sciences: Integrating hazard and risk data into policymaking for inclusive, safe,

resilient and sustainable cities and human settlements

13 January 2015

Workshop at the University of Geneva, Uni Mail, Geneva, Switzerland

Scira Menoni

DASTU – Politecnico di Milano and

CERG_C – Université de Genève

Impact assessment to support more resilient, recovery and

enhanced risk mitigation strategies

Prof.

xyz

Points of the presentation

1. Why impact assessment in terms of post-disaster damage and losses

assessment is important?

2. Conceptual link between different aspects and purposes of damage

and losses assessment

3. First example of post-flood damage assessment in the Umbria

Region after a sequence of severe floods affecting a number of cities

and rural areas

4. Second example of post-earthquake damage assessment conducted

ten years after the event: what lessons can be learned regarding data

collected for first recovery and reconstruction

5. Looking ahead…at enhanced practices

Prof.

xyz

Why bothering with damage and losses data collection and analysis?

The framework below is based on the one developed by the JRC technical

working group (De Groeve, K. Pljansek, D. Erlich, Recording disaster losses,

JRC, 2013)

Needs assessment (compensation)

Recovery

Local officials/insurers

Fair resources allocation

Regional/national officers, insurance companies

EU Solidarity Fund in case of activation

Loss Accounting

Recording the impact

Local policy (city)

Measuring trends

International policy (UN, donors, EU Policy-DG ECHO)

Disaster forensic

Identify the cause

Local expert teams

Learning from the past

National expert teams

International expert temas (PDNA)

Risk modelling

Modelling future losses

Local research/policy

DRR and mitigation

National research/policy (Regional, GEM)

International initiatives (GEM, GAR), EU policy

National policy (National Adminsitrations)

Glo

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Prof.

xyz

Why bothering with damage and losses data collection and analysis?

t

EVENT: direct physical

damage, systemic «higher

order» damage, long term

damage

Exposure in quantitative termsand values of exposed systems

HazardPhysical characteristicsof the dangerousphenomena

PRA (for fewvariables) and multiscaledeterministic scenario

Complete event reportand damage database at regional and nationalscale

VulnerabilityPhysical and systemicof exposed elements

Cost benefit analysis

of prevention

measures

Cost benefit analysis

of mitigation

measures in recovery

Prof.

xyz

In the Umbria Region we are working together with the Regional Civil Protection

to develop tools for post-flood damage assessment, integrating compensation

and risk assessment needs, with the aim of advancing in accountability and

prioritirization of recovery and reconstruction. Post flood damage assessment is

carried out for multiple sectors at the regional and local scales.

Sectors Scale Aspects Type of damage Tool/data

Event local/regional hazard

regional/CNR/Tevere

River Basin/other

People (victims, evacuated) local loss direct and indirect

Regional Authority and

interviews

Lifelines regional

loss and

functionality direct and indirect

Regional Authority,

lifelines provideers

Public facilities

provincial/

regional

loss and

functionality direct and indirect

Regional, provincial

and local authorities

Agricolture

regional/large

scale loss direct

Regional/associations/

others

Industrial plants local

vulnerability

and loss direct and indirect

Local authorities,

Regional authorities,

direct surveys

Residential buildings local

vulnerability

and loss direct and indirect

Local authorities,

direct surveys

Natural environment local/regional loss

direct (?) and

indirect

Regional authorities,

Parks, others

Prof.

xyz

Two methods are considered for collecting relevant data: direct surveys for some

objects (residential, commercial and industrial buildings) and coordination of data

that are collected by a variety of authorities for different purposes and dealing

with sectors according to national and European laws.

Momento della giornata

12 Nov ore 14.00

12 Nov ore 18.00

12 Nov ore 20.00

12 Nov ore 22.00

13 Nov ore 7.30

13 Nov ore 11.30

13 Nov ore 16.00

13 Nov ore 19.00

13 Nov ore 21.00

14 Nov ore 10.00

Comuni

Attigliano 14 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Orvieto 512 425 188 188 131 131 131 - - -

Deruta 277 2 113 - - - - - - -

Umbertide 27 27 - - - - - - - -

S. Venanzo 93 - - - - - - - - -

Città della Pieve 64 - - 64 64 64 64 64 40 20

Ponte S. Giovanni 15 - - - - - - - - -

Marsciano - 300 - 172 16 16 16 - - -

Gualdo cattaneo - 111 111 - - - - - - -

Perugia - 96 - - 79 79 79 - - -

Todi - - - 44 189 189 189 189 189 189

Citerna - - - 101 - - - - - -

Perugia - - - - 79 - - 11 6 -

Spoleto - - - - 77 77 - - - -

Massa Martana - - - - 77 - - - - -

Prof.

xyz

The procedure that is under development is combining the different requirements

associated to the purposes for which damage assessment is carried out

(compensation, forensic, needs assessment)

EVENT

2-3 d20 d

90 d

Buildings cadastrial analysis:- Buildings map- Buildings vulnerability- Monetray value of exposed buildings

Field survey simplified form A -affected buildings

Field survey full residential form -Direct damage-Indirect damage

Private estimate-Monetary value of damage

Municipality

Surveyour

Private Citizen

Civil protection

Field survey full residential form (discretionary)-Indirect damage

Estimate-Monetary value of indirect damage

CP Consultancy Service

6 m

12 m

Prof.

xyz

“Real life test”: the Umbria/Central Italy

floods and landslides

in November 2012 and 2013

Nov 2012 Nov 2013

Application of the methods and development of reports on the three

events of November 2012, 2013, and February 2014.

Prof.

xyz

Results that have been obtained for the Umbria Region: examples taken from the

2012 Event Report.

Prof.

xyz

How results of the damage analysis can support better reconstruction and

recovery? How to have an impact on land use and urban planning?

Prof.

xyz

At the ten anniversary of the earthquake that hit the Salò town and its

sorroundings in the Garda Lake, Northern Italy, area on November 2004, we

conducted a study to recover the information on the physical direct damage to

buildings that was in the municiaplity archives

Prof.

xyz

Usability forms have been used in Italy for at least three decades now as a

fundamental tool to support recovery decisions and to assess the extent of repairs

and rebuilding necessary after an earthquake. Usability forms «stabilized» ten

years ago more or less, after many different attempts (vulnerability, damage)

Prof.

xyz

The usability forms that were collected those days after the earthquake to support

emergency and recovery management were analysed together with the database

where the data had been input

ID NumeroPrat Istat Data CodiceComu CodiceLoca Typology ID Address

616 0171700616 003017170 27/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

628 0171700628 003017170 27/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

730 0171700730 003017170 27/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1340 0171701340 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1438 0171701438 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1448 0171701448 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1573 0171701573 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1612 0171701612 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1726 0171701726 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1756 0171701756 003017170 28/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1945 0171701945 003017170 29/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1946 0171701946 003017170 29/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1950 0171701950 003017170 29/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

1964 0171701964 003017170 29/11/2004 017170 017170 2 VIA FANTONI

1996 0171701996 003017170 29/11/2004 017170 017170 1 VIA FANTONI

Demand Number Stato ID_inspection ID pr_dem2 ID result type ID result Date of inspection Team ID

0171700587 4321 583 1 08/12/2004 389

0171700601 6342 596 0 14/12/2004 494

0171700700 4971 695 0 08/12/2004 389

0171701285 913 1277 1 30/11/2004 106

0171701375 923 1366 1 30/11/2004 106

0171707147 6338 7113 1 14/12/2004 494

0171701504 4322 1495 0 08/12/2004 389

0171701541 2797 1532 5 04/12/2004 147

0171701646 2842 1637 1 04/12/2004 257

0171701680 916 1671 1 30/11/2004 106

0171701858 918 1849 1 30/11/2004 106

0171701857 2790 1848 1 04/12/2004 147

0171701862 2843 1853 1 04/12/2004 257

0171701874 343 1865 4 27/11/2004 1

0171701906 930 1897 1 30/11/2004 106

0171701995 2793 1986 1 04/12/2004 147

0171702002 921 1993 1 30/11/2004 106

0171702003 2532 1994 0 03/12/2004 206

Prof.

xyz

A damage map has been therefore drawn based on some fields in the usability

forms describing the damage to buildings. Georeferencing has been carried out

building by building as coordinatates were lacking in the forms, a problem that is

solved today that forms are compiled with a tablet and coordinates are calculated

each time a building is surveyed

Prof.

xyz

Then a «pre-event» damage scenario using as a seismic input the real event that

struck the town on the 24° of November 2004 was estimated. Buildings

vulnerability assessments were available from several studies that had been

conducted prior to the event

Prof.

xyz

The two maps, the damage map obtained from the information in the usability

forms and the damage map obtained running the scenario have been compared to

«test» the risk assessment methodology and the scenario model

Prof.

xyz

What is the added value of damage assessment in the aftermath of a disaster?

1. In the case of the Umbria Region several purposes are fulfilled:

* Damage and loss estimation provide input for recovery and reconstruction

decisions;

* Damage and loss estimation permit to verify in a real case what are the

priorities in terms of damage and therefore protection ater floods (lifelines

and industries);

* Damage and loss estimation provide more reliable data to feed further risk

assessments in the same areas and in similar ones

2. In the Salò case:

* The comparison permits to rethink about vulnerability assessment methods;

* Problems of current usability forms and survey methods have been clearly

highlighted once the data were used for forensic purposes and not just to

support post disaster needs assessment (sheltering);

* Pre-event scenarios may be useful to check initially where the largest damage

has occurred, and also to better understand why damage occurred differently

from what could be assessed before the event and what mitigation fits best

Prof.

xyz

What is the added value of damage assessment in the aftermath of a disaster?

* In order to support better and more reliable cost-benefit analysis

of mitigation measures taken either before or after an event we need to rely on better data than data available today. * The examples that we have presented show that the assessment of the direct physical damage is not enough to provide a real picture (scenario) of the impact of a n event, equally important are indirect, «higher order» and secondary damage. * How different sectors respond to different hazards (floods, earthquakes) has an important ripercussions on cities and regions. We need to know what sectors are most effected in different types of events, for how long and to what extend (industries, lifelines) to address mitigation priorities * We need to get to a situation where we are able not only to estimate the loss

that has been encountered, but also the loss that will be suffered should

given planning decisions be taken