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ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 1 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Risk Analysis Safety Group Meeting 18 July 2013 Jeff LaHucik Rail Transportation and Engineering Center RailTEC Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, U.S.A. http://www.heatingoil.com/wp- content/uploads/2011/08/oil_pipeline.jpg Slide 2 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 2 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Outline Introduction to pipeline infrastructure and crude oil transportation. Crude oil pipeline data analysis: Severity vs. frequency analysis. Multivariate linear regression. Crude oil pipeline transportation risk model: Definition of risk, probability, and consequences. Outputs of the model. Case study: Keystone XL Pipeline. Slide 3 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 3 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Current Infrastructure: Mainline Crude Oil Pipelines http://www.pipeline101.com/overview/images/CrudeLines.gif Slide 4 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 4 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Current Infrastructure: Pipeline Statistics 2.3 million miles of pipeline in the United States. Only 55,000 out of 2.3 million miles (2.39%) of pipeline transport crude oil. 43.2% of all hazardous materials pipeline incidents involve the shipment of crude oil. http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/portal/site/PHMSA/menuitem.ebdc7a8a7e39f2e55cf2031050248a0c/?vgnextoid=a629 24cc45ea4110VgnVCM1000009ed07898RCRD&vgnextchannel=f7280665b91ac010VgnVCM1000008049a8c0R CRD&vgnextfmt=print http://keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/205578.pdf Slide 5 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 5 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Current Infrastructure: Oil Transportation Crude oil pipelines in the U.S. currently transport approximately 7.1 billion barrels per year. A majority of the flow of crude oil is concentrated in the midwest corridor, ranging from the gulf states to the oil refineries of the midwest. Increasing amounts of Canadian oil sands crude oil is being imported to the U.S. via pipeline. http://www.pipeline101.com/introduction/Transport_Model.html Slide 6 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 6 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Data Used for the Analysis 1811 crude oil pipeline incidents occurred during the time period being analyzed. 1616 incidents were considered in this analysis. Due to invalid/missing latitude and longitude coordinates, the remaining 195 incidents were not used. On average, 165 crude oil pipeline incidents occurred per year. QuantityMeanMinimumMaximum Release size (barrels) 79.56031,322 Total cost (US $) 1.12 million0810 million Exposure radius (miles) 0.108010.71 Slide 7 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 7 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Crude Oil Pipeline Incidents by Year Note: all 1811 incidents were used in this figure. Slide 8 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 8 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Crude Oil Pipeline Incidents by Release Size Distribution of release size (barrels) barrels% length5007% Slide 9 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 9 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Severity vs. Frequency Analysis of Crude Oil Pipeline Incident Causes Slide 10 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 10 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Incident Cause Probability Slide 11 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 11 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Incorporating Multivariate Linear Regression Multivariate linear regression was utilized in order to develop an equation relating total cost with population density and barrels lost. For each incident cause, the total cost (not including the cost of the lost crude oil) was regressed against population density and barrels lost. The cost of lost crude oil was omitted from the regression (it was later added to the barrels lost coefficient) in order to avoid creating an overconfidence in the fit. Slide 12 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 12 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Multivariate Linear Regression: R 2 Slide 13 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 13 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Crude Oil Pipeline Incident Event Tree < 1 5 - 10 10 - 100 > 100 1 - 5 Yes No < 1 10 - 50 50 - 500 > 500 1 - 10 Incident-Caused Release Population Density (people/square mile) Release Size (Barrels) Release ConsequencesRelease Probability Slide 14 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 14 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Societal Risk Definition: Segment Risk Slide 15 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 15 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Societal Risk Definition: Route Risk Slide 16 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 16 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Probability of an Incident Slide 17 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 17 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Consequence Analysis Environmental, property damage, and cleanup costs Population density influences persons affected Release quantity determines severity of incident Weather conditions can increase or decrease exposure area Highly variable conditions Consequences Weather Release Quantity Population Density Costs http://blog.shaleshockmedia.org/wp- content/uploads/2013/04/environment-Alberta-oil-pipeline- rupture-2012.jpg Slide 18 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 18 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Risk Calculation Given the length and population density of each segment, segment risk and route risk are returned. Risk was defined in two ways: cost in $ and persons affected per barrel transported. Distributions calculated: population density, segment risk ($), and segment risk (persons affected per barrel). Total risk is presented in two forms: route risk and the sum of segment risk. Graphs of segment risk ($ and persons affected) versus cumulative miles is used to identify the most risky portions of the route. Slide 19 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 19 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Route Information: Keystone XL Pipeline Involves 3 separate pipeline projects: Keystone XL, Cushing Extension, and Gulf Coast Project. Length: 1692 miles in the United States. Pipe diameter: 36 inches. Capacity: 830,000 barrels per day. Cost: $7.6 billion. Approximately 20,00 jobs will be created. By 2035, the pipeline will add $172 billion to Americas gross domestic product. http://keystone-xl.com/about/the-project/ http://keystone-xl.com/about/jobs-and-economic- benefits/ Slide 20 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 20 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Keystone XL Pipeline Route: Population Density Distribution of population density density% length1003% Slide 21 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 21 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Keystone XL Pipeline Segment Risk: U.S. Dollars per Year Distribution of risk ($) risk% length80023% Slide 22 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 22 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Keystone XL Pipeline Segment Risk: Persons Affected per Year Distribution of risk (persons affected) risk% length1E-329% Slide 23 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 23 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Risk Summaries Route risk (per year) from Morgan, MO to Nederland, TX: $286,646 0.142 people 4.68 x10 -10 persons/barrel Segment risk (per year): QuantityMeanSumMinimumMaximum Risk ($)1781.48 million01,555 Risk (persons)4.65 x10 -4 3.854.25 x10 -9 0.14 Risk (persons/barrel) 1.53 x10 -12 1.27 x10 -8 1.40 x10 -17 4.87 x10 -10 Slide 24 ILLINOIS - RAILTEC Slide 24 2013 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. All Rights Reserved Future Research Explore additional input variables for use in regression: Time of day. Environmental sensitivity. Emergency services/pipeline operator response time. Compare crude oil transportation via pipeline to transportation by rail (perhaps a cost-benefit analysis).