(illegal) immigration - university of arizona
TRANSCRIPT
(Illegal) Immigration:Global and National Context and Prospects for Reform
Presented by
Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Director
Topics
Global and national context
Illegal ImmigrationEconomic impactsFiscal Costs and contributionsNational security
Policy debates and prospects for reform
Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon
Cause and consequence of global economic integration
UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants …≈ 3.3% of the world's population
Global remittances estimated at $150 billionper year
Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.
Foreign-Born Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Num
ber
(000
s)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Perc
ent
Number % of Total Population
Categories of Foreign Born (2004)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Unauthorized Immigrants
10.3 million (29%)
Legal Permanent Residents
10.4 million (29%)
Naturalized Citizens
11.3 million (32%)
Temporary Legal Residents
1.2 million (3%)
Refugee Arrivals2.5 million (7%)
U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration
Architecture of family reunification
Economic migration laws seek to:Minimize competition with U.S. workersProvide for scarce labor
Demographic Realities
Native-born population growing slowly and ageing
20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers
Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth
Between 1990-2004, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force
Demographic Realities
Example:
Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom)U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration
Strong ‘pull’ factor
Political Challenge‘Immigration’
increasingly equated with ‘Illegal Immigration’
Causes of Illegal Immigration…
1. Global economic integration
2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration
3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to:
i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibilityii. Limited funding of interior enforcement;iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs
Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America(Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Mexico5.9 million (56%)Other Latin America
2.5 million (24%)
Asia1 million (10%)
Europe & Canada0.6 million (6%)
Africa & Other0.4 million (4%)
Illegal Immigration Matters…
- To immigrants themselves
- To the United States
Immigration Status Matters to Employment
15%
33%
6%
17%
10%
16%
27%
13%
35%
10%
6%8%
1%3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
ServiceOccupations
Construction &Extractive
Production,Repair &
Installation
Sales &Administration
Management,Business &Professional
Transportation& Moving
Industries
Farming
Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Matters to Income(Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
$47,700 $47,800
$27,400
1.962.34 2.29
$24,300$20,400
$12,000
Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person
Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families
Immigration Status Matters to Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
11%
21%
49%
70%73%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
High School Dropouts High School Graduates with SomeCollege
Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants
Immigration Status Matters to Net Fiscal Impacts
Illegal immigrants tend to be low-skilled
Low-skilled immigrants: Earn relatively low wagesContribute relatively little in taxes
Net fiscal impacts depend both on:Size and mix of immigrant populationGenerosity of state public services
Illegal status compounds impacts
Immigration Status Matters to National Security
Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of lawCreates national security risksUndermines formulation of coherent policyMakes the border a dangerous place
“It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.”
Enforcement Has Focused on the Border
2,842,000
700,000
109,000
458,000192,000
1,633,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Dolla
rs (0
00s)
Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence
Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.
Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002
Enforcement Challenge
Ambivalence about enforcementFocus at border while interior enforcement is minimalNo reliable system for verifying immigration
Ambivalence about controlling immigration – control modulated through
Limits to visible categoriesAdjustments to numbers of temporary visasAdjustments to enforcement intensity
Politics of Reform
System understood to be broken
Political stalemate:“Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to enforce”
What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants?
“Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”
Temporary Worker Program
One mechanism for economic immigration
Debates over existing unauthorized population
Limited provision for permanent economic immigration
‘Importing’ Temporary Labor is Complicated
Workers vs. citizensFacilitates:
Limiting rightsSocial divisionsInherent power imbalance
Politics of Immigration Debates
*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.
Classic Exclusionists
Tom Tancredo (R-CO)
Free-Market Expansionists
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Restrictive
Nationalist Egalitarians
Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Cosmopolitans
Edward Kennedy (D-MA)Expansive
RestrictedExpanded or MaintainedImmigrant Rights Should Be
Immigrant Admission Should Be
Major Themes and Conclusions
Today’s immigration reflects a global economy
Economic and fiscal impacts are complex
Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests
Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven