IISS news December 2014

The dramatic territorial gains in Iraq and Syria made by the terrorist grouping that calls itself the ‘Islamic State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) framed the debate at the 10th Manama Dialogue, held in Bahrain on 5–7 December 2014. The Regional Security Summit brought together senior government and military officials, national-security practitioners, political analysts and journalists from the Middle East, Asia, Europe and North America.

Delegates reflected on three crises in particu-lar: the multifaceted threat that ISIS posed to the region; Syria’s civil war; and the ongoing stand-off over the Iranian nuclear question. In all three cases, the Dialogue grappled with the nature of the threats at hand, their causes and the appropriate response. Much of the debate focused on whether the rise of ISIS—which many delegates referred to using the pejorative label Daesh—changed the cal-culus regarding the other two security crises. Some delegates mooted the possibility of pragmatic coop-

eration with the governments of Iran and Syria, and even the grouping Hezbollah, in order to secure the ground forces capable of inflicting a decisive defeat on ISIS. Others, however, were adamant that the immediacy of the ISIS threat should not cause a shift in their well-established positions regarding the legitimacy of the Assad regime in Syria, and the terms on which the Iranian nuclear negotiations could be brought to a satisfactory conclusion.

As ever, the need to clarify and strengthen the regional political order attracted much attention. The desire for progress –which has motivated the IISS over the course of the last decade to bring together 54 foreign ministers, 16 defence ministers, 38 chiefs of defence staff and hundreds of leading non-governmental analysts – was expressed by several regional leaders. These are problems whose effects cross borders, and which cannot be solved without the cooperation of all regional states. Yet there remains a palpable sense of distrust, stem-

ming from historic differences, the apportioning of blame for the region’s current problems, and the plague of sectarianism.

The Crown Prince of Bahrain, Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, addressed the Dialogue’s open-ing dinner with a call for the region and its friends to move beyond the ‘war on terror’. Today’s chal-lenge, he argued, was to fight a ‘war on theocrats’. Thus began a weekend of high-level discussion trying to make sense of a Middle East facing mul-tiple crises, many confessional in nature.

Solutions to the problems of regional order will remain the topic of meetings to come. But this Manama Dialogue was also notable for a landmark in strengthening international support for regional security: namely, the announcement of an agree-ment to put the UK naval presence in Bahrain – and thus ‘east of Suez’, as The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Philip Hammond, noted – on a permanent footing.

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The 10th IISS Manama Dialogue 2014

Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa

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Opening dinner and addressSpeaking at the opening dinner, the Crown Prince expressed satisfaction and pride at the accomplishments of the ten-year period of coop-eration between Bahrain and the IISS. Noting that he was not giving a keynote speech as such, he wanted to leave one important thought with delegates, concerning the naming of the prin-cipal threat facing the region. To state we are engaged in a war on terrorism does not capture the ‘totality of our conflict, or of our strategic direction or threat. Terrorism is merely the tool...not an ideology’.

‘We are fighting theocrats’, the Crown Prince said. Such people sully the name and practice of a great tradition and divine philosophy; they must be countered holistically, through a combi-nation of military, social, political and economic policies. The Crown Prince mentioned some earlier efforts to accurately label the threat, including the invented word of ‘theo-crism’ and the moniker ‘fascist theocracy’, but urged delegates to find something more appropriate. The failure to do so, he suggested, contributes to a non-holistic policy response, in which we ‘hop blindly and haphazardly from one threat to another’.

The Crown Prince referred to the events of 2011 as Arab Storm and said that history will judge as to whether they were akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 or the Bolshevik takeover of Russia in 1917. In either case, they precipitated the collapse of state paradigms and created a vacuum in which an extreme ide-ology emerged.

Predicting that we will be fighting ‘these theocrats’ for a very long time, the Crown Prince said the question is whether ‘we have the courage and the moral and intellectual integrity to call them out for what they are’. They are people who disregard human life and the social order and social contracts upon which human society is established. They are people who oppress women and slaughter anyone who does not ‘subscribe to their own twisted ideology’. While politics may be a motivation for some of its adherents, it is the ideology itself that must be combatted. It must be named, shamed, contained and eventually defeated. In closing, he called on delegates to discard the term war on terror and focus on ‘the rise of these evil theocracies’.

Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, thanked the Crown Prince for his remarks and the invaluable support he has given to the Manama Dialogue from the outset. He recalled that, inspired by the early success of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in pro-moting intergovernmental defence diplomacy, the IISS had considered how to contribute to wider national security discussions in the Gulf region, where the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council lacked a forum to meet with their immediate neighbours and the leaders of extra-regional powers.

Turning to the state of the region, Chipman recalled the vision of a secure Gulf that the Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, His Royal Highness Prince Saud al Faisal, laid out at the first Dialogue, involving

‘a unified GCC, an integrating Yemen, a stable Iraq and a friendly Iran’. Those four condi-tions, Chipman said, appeared uncertain then and remain fleeting now. Nevertheless, the Manama Dialogue has in its first ten years given a platform for policy announcements, an occasion for high-level discussion and an opportunity to engage all relevant states simultaneously. It has helped to make the regional security debate more transparent and direct, as well as becoming the venue at which the strategic pulse of the region can most accurately be taken.

Today, there is intense diplomatic activity to determine whether a collective approach can be fashioned to meet the multiplying security prob-lems. Ungoverned spaces have widened, and newly governed spaces are under the control of unimaginably dangerous people, Chipman stated. Sectarian politics have assumed a geo-political shape, while regional competition for leadership has intensified.

The issues raised at the Manama Dialogue, Chipman added, demand proper analytical treatment. To help address this, the IISS-Middle East office will from January 2015 be led by a new Executive Director, Sir John Jenkins, who currently serves as UK Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and previously led UK diplomatic mis-sions to Libya, Iraq and Syria. Sir John will deepen IISS relations with regional govern-ments and the private sector, and under his leadership IISS-Middle East will contribute to regional policy circles and engage the best and the brightest women and men in the region.

Opening Televised PanelThe panel for the debate, chaired and presented by Fadila Souissi from Sky News Arabia, fea-tured Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance, together with Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the former head of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

The debate’s main focus was on the threat posed by ISIS and the necessity of regional and international cooperation in response to this challenge. A related question concerned Iran’s role in regional security, and whether this was constructive and necessary, or unwel-come and destabilising.

There was broad agreement on the panel that military action by Iraqi forces supported by a US-led international coalition of western and Arab states had inflicted substantial damage on

MANAMA DIALOGUE GULF STATES FOREIGN POLICYMIDDLE EAST

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa

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ISIS. Nevertheless, panellists concurred that it continued to pose a serious threat to security not just in Iraq and Syria, but also across the Arab world and perhaps even more widely.

Mousavian claimed that Iran, which was reported to have made air-strikes against ISIS in Iraq, was ‘a very serious partner’ in the anti-terrorist coalition. However, he also asserted that the self-styled Islamic State was just one ele-ment of a broader challenge posed by ‘the rise of extremism’ in the Middle East. In his view, it was necessary to address the ‘root causes’ of extrem-ism and for region-wide cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Iraq and Turkey against extremism ‘for decades to come’.

Zebari agreed that it was important ‘to tackle the motivation behind Daesh’ in order to ‘eradi-cate’ the movement. This could only be achieved by comprehensive regional cooperation, with international support, involving financial and political, as well as military, dimensions. He saw it as particularly necessary to stop foreign vol-unteers from Western countries going to fight for ISIS and to cut off international financial support for the terrorists. Shoukry emphasised the importance of eradicating the ‘culture’ of ISIS, which used ‘the alibi of religion’ to pursue political goals. He argued that it was necessary to challenge the discourse of ISIS.

Zebari asserted the importance of cooperat-ing with the Syrian government, because the civil war in Syria had ‘directly influenced Iraq’s internal situation’. Mousavian argued that a ‘power-sharing solution’ was necessary in Syria,

in order to assure its ‘integrity and unity’. In his view, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and five regional powers needed to agree ‘principles for resolv-ing the Syrian crisis’.

On the question of Iran, Sheikh Khalid was implicitly critical of Teheran’s regional role under its present regime, pointing to the ‘posi-tive’ part it had played in Gulf security before 1979, under the Shah. However, he saw the potential for Iran to play a constructive role in the future, perhaps as part of regional maritime security arrangements.

Zebari admitted that Iran had substantial political influence in Iraq – all Iraqi leaders have ‘close ties with Iran’, he said - but emphasised that this did not amount to Iranian ‘control’ of his country: it was ‘the Iraqi people and elected government’, not Iran, who made decisions. He thought that Iraq could play a useful role as a ‘bridge’ between Iran on one side and the Arab states and West on the other.

Mousavian said ‘Iran is accused of every-thing’, but pointed to the Arab world’s ‘decades of problems’. Iran had not interfered in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, where the previous regimes had all collapsed due to domestic pressures. He argued that it was important for Iran to be part of a ‘regional cooperation system’ that could help find solutions to the crises in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia was ‘undoubtedly important’ in any region-wide initiative, which he admitted might take ’10 or 20 years’ to come to fruition. He

thought that such a regional system could have ‘excellent relations’ with the outside powers with interests in the Middle East: Russia, as well as the United States and NATO.

A question-and-answer session involving the audience provided an opportunity for the panellists to clarify their positions on some important points. Egypt’s Shoukry claimed that there was no possibility of his country, alone or as part of an international coalition, interven-ing directly in the Libyan crisis; however, he said that it was important for interested outside parties to unite their efforts to protect Libyans’ ability to determine their future in the face of Islamist pressures. Iraq’s Zebari emphasized the need for ‘more democracy’ and stronger insti-tutions in regional states, and for the protection of Christians and other religious minorities, as well as greater cooperation among Arab states against terrorism. Mousavian pointed to the danger of ‘a failed region’ if regional states did not unite to manage the present challenges.

First Plenary Session: Strategic Priorities In The Middle EastSheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, opened the first plenary ses-sion by identifying two challenges that he argued should be regional priorities. First, that some unaffiliated terrorist groups had achieved an unprecedented level of scale and serious-ness; ISIS in particular now holds vast territory, money and military equipment. Second, that states were still prominent in sponsoring ter-

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Research Scholar, Princeton University; former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Finance, Iraq; Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain: and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

MANAMA DIALOGUEDEFENCE POLICY ISLAMIC STATEIRAN

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rorism or engaging directly in terrorist acts; he pointed to Hezbollah as an example of the former and the Syrian regime’s use of barrel bombs as an example of the latter. Tackling these challenges will be neither easy nor quick, Sheikh Khalid said. A comprehensive approach is needed, embracing military efforts, financial sanctions and a drive to win the theological battle against militancy.

Sheikh Khalid noted that some regional progress on these fronts had already been made, in particular the recent Manama Declaration on Combating the Financing of Terrorism. However, he added that the ambitions of some regional powers to dominate the region stoked distrust and hindered cooperation. He went on to criticise Iran for interfering in the affairs of some regional states.

Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, echoed the theme of distrust as a factor that hindered cooperation among regional states. His own review of the region’s main chal-lenges and strategic priorities focused on domestic challenges caused by economic slowdown, population growth and contested national identity; the activity of extremists in exploiting socio-economic dislocation and sectarian difference, sometimes with state support; and the destabilising effects of the difficulty in arriving at a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue. Mr Shoukry called for the revival of the Arab peace initiative, with the support of the UN Security Council, to move towards the creation of a viable Palestinian state. To tackle the other challenges, he sug-

gested that states should modernise and integrate, rejecting hegemony and conducting dialogue on the basis of mutual respect. It was necessary, he averred, to adopt comprehen-sive solutions and to view security broadly, as well as tackling all terrorist groups rather than focusing solely on ISIS.

Philip Hammond, the UK’s foreign secre-tary, used his address to restate his country’s commitment to Gulf security. He argued that there was a strong commonality of interest between London and the Gulf capitals on secu-rity, prosperity and stability. The just-signed agreement to re-establish a permanent naval presence in Bahrain was a clear statement of the UK’s commitment to a presence East of Suez, he said. Mr Hammond stressed the collective nature of the GCC-Western effort to halt the advance of ISIS in Iraq. He identified further steps that would be needed to achieve victory: the enhanced use of ground forces; the estab-lishment of stable, legitimate self-sufficient governments in Iraq and Syria (specifically excluding Bashar al-Assad); building a culture to marginalise extremism, including through the empowerment of moderates in the Gulf and abroad; and enhancing broader counter-terrorism efforts, including initiatives to stem terrorist financing.

Looking beyond the ISIS challenge, Mr Hammond stressed the importance of patience in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, to ensure that a deal will fully meet interna-tional concerns. He called for pan-regional cooperation, involving Iran, to support Yemen’s

Peace and National Partnership Agreement. It was also important not to give up on efforts to forge an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, which requires bold leadership on both sides.

In the debate that followed, Professor Francois Heisbourg, chair of the IISS Council, asked the panel about the tension between Gulf and western objectives regarding the threat of ISIS and the Syrian civil war, as most regional powers wanted to see the back of the Assad regime but it was potentially a valuable part-ner in the fight against ISIS. He also asked the speakers to comment on the proposal by Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the former head of the foreign relations committee of Iran’s National Security Council, of P5+5 talks to resolve the Syrian crisis. Sheikh Khalid rejected the notion, as it involved mixing the separate issues of Syria’s civil war with the challenge posed by terrorism across the region. Mr Hammond added that there was little point in adopting new formats if the participants did not share a single view of the way forward, and P5+5 would not have consensus on the question of Assad’s future. Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, deputy secretary for political affairs to the vice-president of Indonesia, asked how Egypt would manage its relations with smaller powers. In response, Mr Shoukry said that Egypt did not aspire to lead either from the front or from behind, but rather was determined to work in unision with other Arab states to realise their shared goals and ambitions. Egypt has no expansionist agenda, he added.

UNITED KINGDOM IRAQ BAHRAIN

Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

MANAMA DIALOGUE MIDDLE EAST

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Second Plenary Session: Iraq, Syria and Regional SecurityDr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Iraq’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, focused entirely on the challenge of con-fronting ISIS, which is without question Iraq’s most significant security challenge. ISIS, he argued, is a departure from Iraq’s long history of a moderate Islam and tolerance. The battle to confront it will need to be global and genera-tional, he said, drawing a comparison to the 30 Years War in 17th century Europe. The minister noted that ISIS recruits young people from all over the world, including from Western democ-racies. It is vital to produce a cultural antithesis or antidote to ISIS. That antidote, he said, should be respect for human rights.

Al Jaafari called for a global mobilization against ISIS, including the creation of an equiva-lent to the Second World War alliance of the Soviet Union with the US, Britain and France. Adversaries should come together, he argued. The minister said that Iraq was well placed to lead such an effort, since it has strong relation-ships throughout the region, including with Iran and the GCC countries.

The Iraqi government has attempted to deal with the social basis of ISIS by forming a government that represents all of the country’s groups. The minister called on the international community to do more to support his country militarily, since it is the spearhead of the fight against ISIS. Iraq needs weapons, logistics, training, and intelligence. Al Jaafari expressed Iraq’s gratitude for the sacrifice and support of those countries which have supported the effort against ISIS. He called for sustained efforts to find common ground in the region and to focus on the ISIS threat.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, the Minister of Defence of France, focused on ISIS from the perspective of an outside power that has a long history in the region. As he put it, ‘We are not from this region but this region is not foreign to us.’ He called for a regional coalition against terrorism that simultaneously shows respect for Islam, but added that the crisis had extra-regional impacts and thus was a matter for the entire international community.

Le Drian noted that the crisis is the Middle East began over a decade ago with the September 2001 terror attacks on the US. It is a complex regional crisis that feeds on state weakness, hatreds, extremism and social marginalisation. Today, the Jihadi threat is two-headed, with al Qaeda still maintaining branches throughout the Gulf, while ISIS has 20,000-30,000 fight-ers and aspires to build its territorial holdings

into a caliphate, threatening the entire region. Unlike al Qaeda, ISIS combines ideological extremist terrorism and traditional military tactics. He noted the alarming fact that other extremist groups in other regions have declared allegiance to ISIS.

The minister stressed the global aspects of the current crisis. He said that 1,100 French nationals had participated in jihad in Syria, and 370 fought for ISIS. France has committed 15 fighter planes to the air campaign against ISIS. While noting the success of some opera-tions thus far, Le Drian argued that air strikes alone would not resolve the problem; only the determination of the people of Iraq and the countries of the region to staunch the flow of political and financial support to ISIS will make success possible. The anti-ISIS effort must focus on building sustainable state institutions and inclusive national identity that embraces all citi-zens. In this context, Le Drian noted, the violent, sectarian regime of Bashar al Assad bears much responsibility for the ascent of ISIS.

Le Drian characterised the French intervention in Mali, and the ongoing 4,000-troop commit-ment to the country, as an example of an effort that did pay off. He closed with a warning that various terrorist and extremist groups from the horn of Africa through the Middle East and into Asia could become interconnected. The interna-tional community must prevent their unification.

The discussion period began with an inter-vention by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the UAE. He stated that ISIS cannot be defeated

without a political process in Syria. He also said that Iran cannot be a partner in this effort when Iran and its proxies are interfering and acting as an occupying power in Syria. Sheikh Abdullah suggested that western states did not match the Gulf states in the determination to fight terror-ism. He pointed out that European states were much more tolerant of hate speech than their Gulf counterparts, and added that while west-ern states were mostly concerned with weapons and finance, the states of the Gulf region are engaged in a fight for their culture, religion and very existence.

The rest of the discussion centred on the challenges of bringing communities into the battle against ISIS and counter-radicalisation, specifically concerning the role of social media in promoting extremism.

Third Plenary Session: Countering Extremism in the Middle EastIn the third plenary session, Dr Nizar Madani, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, argued that the GCC had proven stronger and more resourceful than many ‘cynics’ had expected. Despite challenges and scepticism, perseverance has been ‘the rock on which we relied.’ The organisation’s priority has been security, for without security there is no freedom or prosperity, he insisted. And despite numerous challenges, growth and employment rates have soared. The future of the GCC would rely on three dimensions: local, regional and international. For the local dimension, the GCC members themselves needed to build upon their

INSURGENCY FRANCE

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, FranceDr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq

IRAQ MANAMA DIALOGUE

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own rich and diversified experience. Regionally, future stability requires building constructive relations with neighbouring countries, which in turn should avoid meddling in the internal affairs of others and backing sectarian militias. Madani specified that he was talking about Iran, ‘an important country’ that ‘has the right to be a key player in the region’, but only if it serves stability rather than strife. In the international dimension, there was the dire need for collective efforts to counter terrorism. To do so, however, required addressing the link between terrorist movements and humanitarian crises in Syria, Palestine, Libya and elsewhere.

General Ali Al Ahmadi, the chief of Yemen’s National Security Bureau, spoke on a day when two hostages held by an al Qaeda affiliated group died during an operation to free them. Against this tragic backdrop, Ahmadi noted that Yemen was among the countries most damaged by terrorism. The government was fighting hard against the terrorists, had launched damaging operations including air strikes against them, and had worked with foreign partners includ-ing the US with joint operations and the sharing of intelligence. However, the rapid rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria dictated caution in making assessments about the future of any terrorist threat and how close it was to being defeated. In Yemen, meanwhile, civil strife continued. The general blamed rebellious Houthis for violations causing the almost total disintegration of peace efforts. Whereas most of his prepared remarks focused on Yemen’s difficulties, he concluded by identifying the Palestinian issue as the ‘cen-

tral cause’ of Middle East turmoil, because, in his words, ‘Israeli tyranny’ has been ‘exploited by many including al Qaeda.’

In discussion, three delegates focused on Saudi relations with Iran and the problem of Sunni extremism. On the latter, David Roberts of Kings College London argued that Saudi Arabia was ‘in denial’ about the sources of extremism in its own Wahhabi fundamental-ism. Another critical question was posed by Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance, who challenged the Saudi position towards Iran. Iran is an important neighboring country, Zebari insisted, and it is a ‘primordial principle of dialogue’ that it should take place between countries that disagree rather than those who agree. Zebari asked whether there a possibil-ity of a renewed dialogue as in the days of Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami? Other delegates questioned whether the Gulf needed to deal with Iran, whose policies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were portrayed as stoking sec-tarianism and thus boosting recruitment to ISIS.

Madani in response said that Saudi Arabia agreed with dialogue as a matter of prin-ciple, but believed that success required some common denominators. Trust and transpar-ency were prerequisites before starting any dialogue, he said. Above all, ‘countries should not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs.’ He also rejected the charge of a link between Saudi religious practice and the ideology that fuels ISIS: ‘the Islamic religion is innocent of these acts.’

In regard to Yemen, two delegates, from Lebanon and the UAE, spoke to the difficulty of putting into force political agreements meant to end the conflict with Houthis. There seemed to be no will either from the Houthis or Yemen’s president to implement the agreements, accord-ing to one of the delegates. Unless respected and implemented the country would fall back into civil strife. And the overriding question, she argued, was how to close off Iran’s influence in Yemeni affairs. Dr Nicholas Redman of the IISS meanwhile focused on what Gulf neighbors might do to ease the country’s economic diffi-culties. Given that these countries are wealthy and employ foreign labour, and that Yemen is poor and populace, couldn’t there be a use for the latter’s surplus labour, even if it means Yemen will be a remittance economy?

Al Ahmadi focused in his responses on the problem of implementing peace agreements. Implementation has been stymied by discord, he said, and Houthis have refused to withdraw from Sanaa and have gone back to fighting. Iran, he added, has continued to play a malign role, supporting the rebels with money and arms.

Fourth Plenary Session: Collective approaches to current security issuesGiven recent divisions among the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), collective approaches to security are an issue of great cur-rency. The GCC Secretary General, Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, highlighted the inherent difficulties in having multiple parties work in harmony. He identified three factors that are necessary for this process: participation should be as inclusive and comprehensive as possible; discussions should be supported by a consultation process by relevant parties; and there should be effective implementation of any process involving coor-dinated regional and international strategies.

Al Zayani was sceptical that Gulf states had devised necessary implementation mechanisms, as they are often overwhelmed by temporary challenges. But there were positive signs: Saudi Arabia had suggested an international counter-terrorism centre, and pledged $100m in support.

Canada’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, John Baird, noted that most challenges in the Gulf region are driven by sectarianism and that sectarian divisions were being exploited by ‘sinister state actors’ and ‘nefarious non-state actors’, with Iran’s support for Shia militias an example. For Baird, the answer to such sectari-anism is pluralism.

According to Baird, globalisation ensures that what happens in the Middle East resonates

YEMEN SAUDI ARABIA COUNTER TERRORISM

Major General Ali Al Ahmadi, Chief, National Security Bureau, Yemen

Dr Nizar Madani, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

MANAMA DIALOGUE

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 7

around the globe. Thus, the need for collec-tive action could not be greater. Ultimately, however, extremism and sectarianism cannot be countered with just military power, Baird argued. Economic stability and dynamism are necessary to empower people and ensure long-term prosperity.

Michael Fallon, the UK Secretary of State for Defence, claimed the world is in an ‘unpreced-ently dangerous’ situation. In this environment, the UK retains the political will and the military capabilities to intervene--despite a parliamen-tary vote in 2013 rejecting military strikes in Syria. Fallon identified some relevant histori-cal lessons: first, that liberty is underpinned by credible armed forces that are ready to deploy rapidly and at scale. Second, partnerships are vital. Moreover, although there is plenty of scope for the use of soft power in the Gulf, there is no substitute for hard power. A possible final lesson is that the more secure the Gulf states are, the more secure the West remains.

In the debate that followed, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, formerly Iran’s chief nuclear nego-tiator, berated Baird for ‘spending your time in palaces and luxury hotels fighting ISIS’ while the Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, was risking his life on the front line. Why, Mousavian asked, was Canada more aggressive towards Iran than even the US? What lay behind this position? Baird responded that Canada wanted Iran to play a major regional role, but was disturbed by its backing for Shia militias in Iraq and its sup-port for terrorist groups in nearly every Middle Eastern state. Its human-rights record was also

a concern, as well as Iran’s nuclear programme which Baird concluded was designed to deliver a nuclear weapons capability.

Zayani then spoke about the steps needed to make a breakthrough in relations between Iran and its Gulf neighbours. Firstly, it should act to resolve its territorial dispute with the UAE concerning three islands that Iran has occupied. Secondly, it should facilitate the withdrawal of Hizbullah from Syria, where it is responsible for the death of many Syrians. Iran’s good faith could only be impressed upon the region by bold steps, he said.

Fallon concluded by answering questions from Zaid Belbagi of the Prince Salman Centre for Innovative Government and Neil Hawkins, Australia’s Ambassador to Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. These concerned whether the military operation against ISIS had to be at a similar scale to the 1991 operation to liberate Kuwait; whether western states had the appetite for such an undertaking; and the importance for western public opinion of seeing a strong, active Gulf presence within the US-led coalition. Fallon said that it would take an effort on a par with the 1991 Gulf War, and that with 50 states involved the enterprise was scaling upwards. He confirmed that GCC involvement was very helpful for Western governments to justify their involvement to their electorates. He confirmed that airpower alone could not defeat ISIS, and pointed to the reconstitution of the Iraqi army and the creation of a national guard as evidence that the ground component was being build up. It was vital, he said, that

the new Iraqi army should have support right across Iraqi society.

Chipman concluded the session by question-ing whether the oft-heard call for tackling the root causes was a recipe for delay and inaction: ‘I wonder sometimes whether we are making the analytically perfect the enemy of the politi-cally necessary.’ Understanding the proximate causes, he explained, and tackling them ‘with vigour, enthusiasm, clarity, fairness and good governance’ might be enough ‘to help stabilise this very complex world in which we live’.

Fifth Plenary Session: Reflections on Ten Years of Regional Security ChangesOpening this final session, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS, traced the evolution of Iran’s nuclear programme over ten years. Iran now has a stockpile of low-enriched uranium that is sufficient to make up to six bombs, if further enriched. The interim deal agreed in 2013 resembled a ceasefire, in which Iran agreed to stop the production of near highly enriched uranium, and cap the number of centrifuges, in exchange for no new sanctions. Tehran’s late-2014 deal with Russia to provide enriched uranium for eight new reactors elimi-nated the practical need for Iran to have an enrichment programme of its current size. The country’s insistence of preserving it was due to pride but also a desire to have the option of developing nuclear weapons. The key to a deal lay in whether Iran was willing to put this hedg-ing strategy ‘on ice’.

CANADA

Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

John Baird, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canada Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, UK

MANAMA DIALOGUEUNITED KINGDOM

8 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

Dr Bassma Kodmani, the Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative, discussed Syria within the context of broader societal dynam-ics. The governance of diverse societies was, she said, key to state security and stability; poor gov-ernance of diversity led to fragmented societies. The reassertion of a strong military role in Egypt in 2011 marked a turning point for regional poli-tics, putting the accent on security solutions to the challenge of extremism. The advance of ISIS in Iraq, and the focus this received from regional and foreign powers, meant that the situation in Syria was becoming more complex. There was no strategy for Syria, Kodmani argued, and it was not clear which opposition forces would be trained and how would they be vetted. A strategy was needed to define reliable groups, she said.

General the Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, formerly the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, offered a critique of recent military engagements in the region: ‘lots of policy masquerading as strategy, and certainly lots of tactics, but few joined-up, long-term plans that successfully synthesise strategic ends, ways and means, the essence of a strategy.’ States that want to achieve strategic success, he argued, have to be fully committed to the cause. Western experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan had left political leaders reluctant to risk similar outcomes and led to other solu-tions, particularly operations using local or proxy forces. The GCC states could create a mil-itarily efficient joint command to tackle future challenges together, he argued, although to be

effective under fire it is vital to have good com-mand and control.

Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager of the Al Arab News Channel, noted that the danger from ISIS was real; it was, he said, not an army but an idea ‘that feeds on our failures.’ He argued that most analysts and governments had failed to notice the rise of ISIS because of the post-2011 focus on Iran and Iraq. ISIS was a radical group that flourished because of bad governance, poor education and social injustice. When the Arab Spring began in 2011, some states accommo-dated demands for more freedom and justice; the states that chose instead to rely on old meth-ods provided a fertile ground for ISIS.

In response to a question from Seyed Hossein Mousavian about the possibility of improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Jamal Khashoggi said he was pessimistic for three reasons: Iran’s role in Syria; the fact that ISIS is an Arab failure and must be fixed by the Arabs; and because ISIS is a Sunni problem that will become more complex if Iran is involved.

Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Senior Consulting Fellow for the Middle East, took issue with Khashoggi’s assertion that the population of Mosul embraced ISIS when its fighters seized control of the city. He argued that there was insufficient data to support such a conclusion. Rather, he suggested, it would be more sus-tainable to suggest that ‘the generalised revolt that we saw spread across the northwest of Iraq from… 2012 through 2013–2014 created the arena within which five or six insurgent groups,

one of which was the Islamic State, managed to seize large amounts of territory.’

Dr Ayman Safadi, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Jordan, suggested that the current strategy was a result of Western misunderstand-ing and Arab complacency, and was doomed to fail for these reasons. In particular, he argued, the focus on Iraq—even if taken to a successful conclusion—would allow ISIS to regenerate in Syria. Richards agreed with his analysis, saying that he disapproved of the incremental approach towards ISIS, which cedes the strategic intiative. Syria was vital, Richards argued, and there had to be a regional grand strategy.

Kodmani tackled another question from Safadi, who had suggested that the moderate opposition in Syria had disappeared. They still exist, she replied, but had no space to operate at present. The media focus is squarely on ISIS, while they have not received the funding that foreign states have given to armed groups. Only the US has the ability to enforce coherence on the various donors in support of a single strategy.

In closing, Fitzpatrick was pessimistic about the chances for an agreement with Iran. He thought western states would act militarily if Iran got too close to nuclear capability, and for that reason Iran would stop short of acquiring a weapon. He rejected suggestions that Iran was justified in refusing to give up its enrichment capability in favour of imports. In particular, he criticised the argument that Iran’s sunk costs impelled it to continue down the route of self-sufficiency as fundamentally flawed.

Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS; Dr Bassma Kodmani, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager, Al Arab News Channel

TERRORISM AND SECURITY GEOPOLITICSMANAMA DIALOGUE

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 9

Participants agreed that defeating terrorism involves a sustained, multi-front effort in the region and beyond, not least because an esti-mated 16,000-18,000 of ISIS’s fighters are foreign. Tackling the ISIS threat requires military action, efforts to disrupt its recruitment and revenue (especially through organised criminal activ-ity) and to challenge its extremist ideology. A solid legal framework is part of the solution, but it was pointed out that the support of Western states may be difficult to sustain over the next decade or more, if anti-terrorism laws are used in some regional states to curb the activity of opposition forces as well as extremists.

States have successfully formulated and implemented counterterrorism plans in the past, but often old lessons are forgotten and states tend to overreact in the face of a new threat. Success depends on the state quickly correcting its stance, adopting an all-govern-ment approach that improves governance, and so steadily reducing the terrorist threat to the point where it becomes a law-and-order prob-lem. Looking at regional conflicts, participants agreed that it was important to avoid state col-

lapse because it creates a vacuum in which terrorists can thrive. There was some disagreement over whether the Syrian state could be saved, or whether it had already collapsed.

Counter-radicalisation efforts are focused in large part on an effort by more than 60 states to challenge the ideology, religious authority and narrative of extrem-ist groups. ISIS’ discourse of inevitable victory followed by a utopian future stands at odds with the reality that many vol-unteers will either die or be arrested, and this is something governments could exploit. Video of atrocities in Syria and Iraq, committed by Sunni and Shia militants, have radicalised young people in both communities rapidly; it is not only a Sunni/ISIS phenomenon. Some par-ticipants stressed that the brutality of the Syrian government towards its own population was a driver of radicalism; others drew attention to the negative impact of the aggressively sectar-ian policies of the Maliki government in Iraq.

Western governments face a dilemma regarding their nationals who have fought in Syria and Iraq. A number of them are disil-lusioned and would like to return home, but they fear arrest. These young people could be useful to establish a counter narrative to the ISIS message, but only if they are handled care-fully. Although it is important to combat and defeat extremism ideologically, that is not the whole solution. As one participant remarked, many of the young recruits are malleable and seek excitement; winning the theological argu-ment alone will not deliver victory.

Special Session 2: REGIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM AND COUNTER RADICALISATION POLICIES

A video grab of an Islamic State militant in Syria, September 2014 (Getty/AFP)

DEFENCE POLICY DEFENCE ECONOMICS

Special Session 1: IRAN AND THE REGION BEYOND THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

The specific mandate of this rich and conten-tious session proved difficult to fulfil. When participants did manage to leave the nuclear issue behind, they often proved unwilling to move beyond the divisions which have plagued attempts to establish a new and more stable regional order.

Participants gathered soon after the nego-tiations between Iran and the P5+1 powers had been extended by seven months. They heard updates on outstanding issues, including matters of verification and transparency, and finding mutually acceptable parameters for Iranian fuel-cycle capacity. In fact, the format of the negotiations was of as much interest as

the content. A number of participants regretted the absence of an Arab state in the negotia-tions (or its lack of transparency towards Arab states), and were apprehensive of possible out-comes of the parallel bilateral US-Iranian track.

These concerns underpinned a broader Gulf unease that the US was, firstly, failing to recognise Iranian stalling tactics, and, sec-ondly, moving to reach a regional settlement with Iran over the heads of other parties. Even stronger were Gulf participants’ complaints about Iranian interference in others’ domes-tic politics. Iran’s commitment to exporting revolution was described by one participant as part of a two-pronged foreign policy which

also supposedly pledges non-interference. This was greeted with the counter-accusation that Gulf states are to blame for the jihadist scourge of today’s Middle East.

It was argued that Iran poses a multi-

faceted threat to regional security, not only through its support to revolution but through its conventional, cyber and ballistic missile capabilities, and its disruptive potential in the Strait of Hormuz. These are matched by a sub-stantial (and supposedly Asian-pivot-proof) US presence in the Gulf, consisting of advanced hardware and more than 35,000 personnel.

All agreed that no enduring solution to the problems of regional political order can be reached without the involvement of Iran. But just as problematic as the polit-ical-military stand-off in the region is the inheritance of mutual distrust, reinforced by contemporary developments, that prevents real Gulf–Iran dialogue from taking place. Here, the gap between two images of Iran – either as a putative hegemon seeking nuclear weapons, exporting sectarianism and desta-bilising its neighbours, or as an encircled, defensive victim – was palpable. Yet so too was the reluctance of all parties to take the nec-essary first steps, in political terms, towards a comprehensive regional settlement.Army Day Parade, Tehran, 2013 (Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty)

MANAMA DIALOGUEGULF STATES

10 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

Worries about state failure and the possibil-ity of regional failure pervaded the Dialogue and were addressed directly in this session. The experience of two decades of UN-led interventions in failed or failing states yielded four lessons. Firstly, a series of UN Human Development Reports, written by Arab aca-demics, had identified the weaknesses in Arab states, specifically corruption and repression, that resulted in state failure in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Efforts to rebuild and strengthen states should therefore focus on empowering parliaments, rebuilding competent courts and defending personal freedoms. This was vital to restore trust between state and society.

Secondly, intervening powers should not use excessive coercion or pursue a victor’s jus-tice. De-Ba’athifcation in Iraq and the Political Isolation Law in Libya have played central roles in destabilising the new political settle-ments. Thirdly, the international community has to act with speed when faced with the prospect of state failure: intervention in the Balkans came too late. Finally, there is a need for effective, detailed, long-range planning

before an intervention is undertaken.

The post-2001 trend of ‘securitising’ the problems of the Middle East attracted particular criticism, because a weak state is deficient in three main areas: security, legitimacy and capacity. Securitisation leads to over concentration on the first shortcoming, creating a high level of dependency between the exogenous supplier of security and the consuming state. The EU has started to learn this lesson; only five of its 38 missions are primarily military in focus.

The panel then want on to examine both Syria and Iraq. The Syrian crisis was multifac-eted and existed at the local, national, regional and international levels simultaneously. There were very high levels of mistrust at all of these levels. Opposition forces at the local and national levels are so fractured that they cannot be dealt with as a single entity. For this reason, the Geneva Two process was never

likely to be productive. The debate on Iraq generated several

perspectives. Firstly, that the present crisis originated in a political process that was started under occupation. Secondly, that the 2003 inva-sion was a catalyst for the Arab revolutions of 2011, by encouraging democracy in the region. However, the failure to provide adequate secu-rity for six months after the invasion led to a division of society between those fighting the occupation and those wishing to democratise. It is necessary, particpants agreed, to enable indig-enous local actors to drive the reconstitution of state power and legitimacy, in partnership with the international community.

Special Session 3: PREVENTING STATE FAILURE: HUMANITARIAN AND GEOPOLITICAL APPROACHES

The region is faced presently with a binary challenge: the pressing need to cooperate to defeat ISIS and the long-term issue of crafting military cooperation to provide an effective and self-sustaining security architecture.

The overriding immediate security concern for the region, and beyond, is confronting and defeating ISIS, with several regional nations involved actively in supporting the US-led campaign. Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have contributed to the US air campaign to strike at ISIS in Syria,

while several European nations are taking part in the US air operations in Iraq.

The challenge of ISIS, by its very nature a pan-regional threat, requires that it be countered militarily and ideologically on a multi-national basis. Achieving this will prob-ably be the work of a generation. The pacing of the military aspects of a counter-strategy, how-ever, may pose potential difficulties for some local states: have their respective militaries the capacity to sustain prolonged operations, and may wider pressures risk stressing their civil

societies? The emergence of ISIS has forced nations in the region to re-assess intra-regional cooperation.

The military defeat of ISIS in Iraq will presage a shift in the emphasis of the military campaign to Syria. This will present fresh problems, for while Iraq retains at least a notionally functioning – if degraded –

army that can provide the basis of the required ground campaign, this is not the case in Syria. Bolstering moderate opposition forces in Syria will also require time.

Looking beyond the huge challenge posed by ISIS, the region remains some way from supporting an adequate cooperative security arrangement to provide collective defence. Within the Gulf Cooperation Council there is still a considerable gap between ambition and actual capacity. There are doubts, for example, as to whether the GCC command and control infrastructure is robust and resilient enough to meet the kinds of threats it may actually face.

The existence of an external security guar-antor , the US, is re-assuring but paradoxically it may undercut local efforts to improve genu-inely regional capacity. The back-stop of US military might ironically acts as a brake on the impetus to develop an independent regional capability. There remains also the long-stand-ing issue of Iran and how any regional security architecture could manage or perhaps even accommodate relations with Tehran.

Special Session 4: REGIONAL MILITARY COOPERATION

Syrian Kurdish refugees moving into Turkey (EC/ECHO)

Kurdish Peshmerga paramililtary (Sadikgulec/Dreamstime)

MILITARY COOPERATION CONFLICT PREVENTIONFOREIGN POLICYMANAMA DIALOGUE

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 11

The India Global Forum 2014The IISS and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India, jointly con-vened the India Global Forum 2014 in New Delhi on 9–10 November 2014. The IGF opened with a keynote address by India’s Minister of Finance and Defence Mr Arun Jaitley. Mr Jaitley explained the political significance of the 2014 elections to the Indian parliament, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi forming the first single-party majority government in India since 1989. Mr Jaitley outlined India’s economic and fiscal policies, emphasising the urgency of reviving India’s growth momentum and reviving investor sentiment at home and abroad. He emphasised the importance of India’s new ’Make in India’ campaign aimed at promoting the growth of manu-facturing, including in the defence sector. He claimed his most important contribution as defence minister was the decision to permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing.

The four plenary sessions that followed focused on India’s external economic policies and the role of Indian and foreign enterprise in India’s growth process. Speakers said the deceleration in commodity prices afforded India an opportunity to revive growth, that India was commit-ted to the successful completion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations and that India would remain actively engaged in the Asian economic community building process. Plenary session speakers included Suresh Prabhu, Prime Minister Modi’s G-20 Sherpa and the newly appointed Minister for Railways; Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s minister of commerce and industry; Yasutoshi Nishimura, Senior Vice-Minister of the Cabinet Office, Japan; Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European Financial Stability Facility and Managing Director, European Stability Mechanism; Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia; Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Former Minister of Finance, Chile and Senior Adviser, IISS; Sheikh Mohammed Bin Essa Al Khalifa, Advisor for Political and Economic Affairs, Court of the Crown Prince of Bahrain; Memduh Karakullukçu, Vice Chairman and President, Global Relations Forum, Turkey; Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises; and Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group.

The parallel special sessions discussed India’s ‘Make in India’ pro-gramme and the role of private investment in defence modernisation, the energy security strategies of emerging economies, challenges to regional security in the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, and the governance agenda for cyber security. Speakers included Amitabh Kant, Secretary, Department

of Industrial Policy and Promotion, India; Lars-Olof Lindgren, Chairman, SAAB Technologies India; Phil Shaw, Chief Executive, Lockheed Martin India; Flavio S. Damico, Director, Department of Inter-Regional Mechanisms, Ministry of External Affairs, Brazil; Tadashi Maeda, Senior Managing Director, Japan Bank for International Cooperation; Wenguang Shao, Senior Europe Advisor, Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings and Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Relations, IISS; Saumitra Chaudhuri, Former Member, Planning Commission, India; Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones, Former Minister of State for Security and Counter-Terrorism, UK; Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary General, Independent Commission on Multilateralism; Douglas H. Wise, Deputy Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, US; Mohamad Maliki Bin Osman, Minister of State, Ministry of National Development and Ministry of Defence, Singapore; Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs, India; Tarek Shayya, Director of Strategy, Office of the Minister of State, UAE; C. Rajamohan, Distinguished Fellow, ORF.

The IGF was attended by over 200 invited delegates from India and abroad, including government officials, diplomats, business leaders and policy analysts.

More photos of the India Global Forum are available on the IISS Flickr site. The IGF sessions are available to watch here.

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS INDIA GLOBAL FORUM

Arun Jaitley, India’s Minister of Finance and Defence, opened the India Global Forum with a keynote address

Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Sunjoy Joshi, Director, ORF; and Dr Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group

Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European Financial Stability Facility; Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director, Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS; Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of Commerce and Industry, India; and Dr Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia

GEO-ECONOMICS

12 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

Shaharyar Khan, Pakistan’s Special Envoy to the Prime Minister for India; and Satinder Lambah, Former Indian Special Envoy to the Prime Minister

Lieutenant General (Retd) Terry Wolff, Director, NESA Center for Strategic Studies

M. K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister and former Chair, Executive Council of India’s Nuclear Command Authority

Major General Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, Director General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis), Inter Services Intelligence

IISS-NESA SECURITY CONFERENCE

8th IISS–NESA Oman 2014 Conference

The 8th IISS conference on South Asia Security, in partnership with the US National Defense University’s Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies, took place in Muscat, Oman, on 17–19 October 2014. This ‘one-and-a-half’ track conference, with senior officials participating in their private capacity, focused on ‘Afghanistan and Regional Stability & Security’.

Amidst new governments for the first time in over a decade in both Afghanistan and India, and a relatively new civilian government in Pakistan, security challenges have proliferated. The Afghan Taliban has launched its most intense offensive as NATO/ISAF combat forces prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of December 2014. The long-awaited Pakistani military operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ has now been launched against militants in North Waziristan. The decade-long ceasefire between India and Pakistan on Kashmir’s Line of Control and Working Boundary continues to be violated by both, raising tensions. Amidst these challenges, the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has had an impact on all three countries.

The conference brought together 53 top government officials, high-level diplomats, senior military and intelligence officials, and influential experts from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, along with a few participants from the US & Europe. These included Maj.-Gen. Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, the Director-General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis) of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, Brig.-Gen. Ahmed Zia Saraj, the First Deputy for Counter- & Foreign Intelligence of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of State Security, M.J. Akbar, the National Spokesman for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Philip Barton, the British High Commissioner to Pakistan. NESA was led by its new Director Lt-Gen. (retd) Terry Wolff.

The conference was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, with support from Rebecca Fishley and Stephanie Love, Asia Dialogues Coordinator.

IISS Nuclear Workshops in South Asia

The IISS organised its third annual ‘one-and-a-half’ track defence and nuclear workshops in New Delhi and Islamabad in late 2014. Both of these ‘off-the-record’ workshops took forward previous discussions on regional defence and nuclear deterrence issues.

The Indian workshop was held jointly with the United Service Institution (USI) of India on 11 November and focused on the dynam-ics of strategic stability with China and Pakistan, deterrence at sea, and confidence-building measures in Southern Asia. The valedictory address was delivered by M.K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister and former Chair of the Executive Council of India’s Nuclear Command Authority.

The Pakistan workshop was held on 4 December with the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS). The event focused on the regional security environment, stabilising deterrence, and the future of confidence-

building measures in South Asia. The keynote address was delivered by Lt-Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, Advisor on Nuclear Development to Pakistan’s National Command Authority. The visiting IISS team also called on Lt-Gen. Zubair Hayat, the Director-General of the Strategic Plans Division of Pakistan’s National Command Authority.

The fourth round of the IISS’s South Asian defence and nuclear work-shops will be held in the region in late 2015.

The IISS is grateful for the continued support provided by His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman to this annual conference series.

The 9th IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference will be held in Oman in late 2015.

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 13

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS

Afghanistan’s New Government: Challenges and Opportunities

In the first of two meetings exploring post-2014 Afghanistan, Senior BBC Broadcast Journalist Dawood Azami discussed the country’s prospects for stability after historic elections. Following the signing of a power-sharing deal, Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah were now the coun-try’s second post-Taliban president and first-ever Chief Executive Officer, respectively. Azami argued that eventually, hopefully before the upcom-ing London Conference on Afghanistan (December 2014), ‘big tent politics’ would usher in a new government. Provided its two strongmen used their leadership to work together, he believed they could tackle their long to-do list. Azami stressed that new cabinet appointments must be based on merit and parity; parliamentary elections must be organised in 2015, and a constitutional amendment institutionalising power-sharing, improving governance and decentralising power must be prepared by 2016. However, security remained the biggest challenge. Although agreements with the US and NATO had boosted security forces, improved logistics and air support were still required. Turning to the country’s serious narcotics problem, Azami proposed that raising incomes might dent the resurgent opium economy. Regarding foreign relations, Ghani was also keen on better ties with Pakistan and the region. The Taliban had missed the ‘deal of the cen-tury’ with president Karzai, but Azami stressed that ‘talks about talks’ were cause for optimism. Azami expected Mullah Omar to resist any attempted inroads by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Afghanistan. An audio recording of the event can be found here.

Afghanistan and Regional Security

On 22 October, Professor Roger Kangas spoke at Arundel House on Afghanistan’s future stability in the regional context. Kangas, the Academic Dean at the Near East South Asia Center (NESA) for Strategic Studies, said the Central Asian states had broadly welcomed Kabul’s two new leaders. Yet to overcome Afghanistan’s ‘failure narrative’ and pursue true regional economic cooperation in energy and infrastructure, Central Asia would require political support from extra-regional part-ners. New US priorities had led states like Kyrgyzstan to adjust their own security policies, while some had considered pursuing closer ties to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Meanwhile, Iran’s role in maintain-ing regional stability would largely depend, Kangas explained, on the fate of talks regarding its nuclear programme. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia, welcomed early signs that Afghanistan–Pakistan relations were improving. Narendra Modi’s government, he noted, had not yet given significant official pointers on India’s ties with Afghanistan. These would likely continue to rely on a pragmatic and balanced approach. Despite an encouraging start by the new Indian and Pakistani governments, bilateral relations remained tense and plagued by strategic rivalry. In the context of Afghanistan in particular, the rela-tionship between the two countries was still fraught with distrust. And yet, Kangas noted, both India and Pakistan wanted a stable and secure Afghanistan, if perhaps more on their own terms. Listen to audio of the event here.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Kabul, August 2014 (US State Department)

Loading a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft Aug. 11, 2014, at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan (Brandon Lingle/US Air Force)

AFGHANISTAN

India and Her NeighboursOn 29 October, Former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh Veena Sikri addressed an audience at Arundel House on India’s relations with her neighbours. She predicted that since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s topmost priority was India’s economic and social development, he would focus first on its immediate neighbours. Moreover, Sikri explained, Modi’s diplomacy was focused on treating these neighbours equally. His ministers and their departments were mobilised to imple-ment agreements fast, and if bilateral agreements proved out of reach, Modi would turn to ministerial meetings of the existing South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation or Bay of Bengal Initiative. Better

centre–state relations in India, democracies in all the region’s capitals, buoyant demographics and high market demand would facilitate the achievement of these goals.

The strength of Modi’s approach to regional foreign relations, Sikri added, would soon be tested in the context of Bangladesh, which shares a border with the Indian state of West Bengal. The successful resolution of outstanding issues with Bangladesh before upcoming elections in West Bengal would be a significant victory for the new Indian government. Crucially, such resolution would need to include the signing of a compre-hensive water-sharing agreement. In this context, Sikri called for a bilateral water survey and better financial facilities to boost cross-border trade. Audio of the event is available here.

14 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTSINDIA

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy

The National Spokesperson for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), M.J. Akbar, argued on 28 November that Narendra Modi’s foreign policy was largely influenced by his domestic priorities. Modi wanted to ‘uplift’ the remaining 30% of India’s least fortunate by ‘eradicating’ poverty, not merely ‘alleviating’ it. His timeframe for this extended beyond his current five-year term. With investment and governance reforms, Akbar, declared, Modi would shun the ‘dead hand of the state’. The prime minister had entrusted the creative minds of India’s private sector with raising employ-ment and industrial production, while the ‘Make in India’ policy was already at work in the defence sector.

Meanwhile, Akbar noted, economic extroversion had initiated Modi’s ‘Act East’ policy. With regard to foreign relations, Modi had paid early visits to South East Asia, Japan and the Pacific region. He had also devoted attention to India’s dealings with Nepal and Bangladesh. More impres-sively, India had successfully hosted Xi Jinping despite an unresolved border dispute and China’s alleged promotion of a state of ‘stable insta-

bility’ along the frontier. By contrast, said Akbar, India’s western outlook as far as North Africa was beset by instability and conflicts often steeped in complex history. A modern and secular India, Akbar argued, had nei-ther any interests nor any strategic stakes to defend to the west. Therefore, Pakistan would have to make the first steps if it wanted India to feel com-fortable with increased engagement. Listen to the full discussion on the IISS website.

Prime Minister Modi at the launch of the ‘Make in India’ initiative in New Delhi, September 2014 (Asish Maitra)

Young women collect water in Senegal (World Women International)

Dr Aminata Touré, former prime minister of Senegal

Oppenheimer Lecture: Human Security and Conflict Resolution in West Africa

The 2014 Oppenheimer Lecture was delivered by veteran human-rights activist and former prime minister of Senegal Dr Aminata Touré, on 15 October.

Dr Touré discussed the risks posed to human security by the recent Ebola outbreak, which has strained West African healthcare systems and disrupted trade and travel patterns. However, it was ‘extreme poverty’ and the accompanying sense of hopelessness that she identified as the greatest threat to peace in the region. She also noted the ongoing shift in the nature of conflict, from ‘classic’ wars between states to coups and vio-lent efforts led by armed insurgencies.

Responding to questions about the deteriorating situation in Libya, Touré declared that it was time for Senegal and the African Union to speak out against the foreign financing of jihadis intent on toppling the country’s legitimate government. She added that the rest of the global community must also exhibit ‘international solidarity’ in the fight against conflict, disease and economic decline. As part of this pro-cess, she specifically urged politicians, world leaders and international organisations to do more to protect the rights of women affected by conflict.

The event was chaired by by Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the IISS Trustees.Watch the full lecture on the IISS website.

KEY ADDRESS OPPENHEIMER LECTURES

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 15

Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki visited IISS–UK on 13 October to discuss Japanese perspectives on the changing balance of power in Asia. The event was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS. Previously an IISS Research Associate in London, Fujisaki went on to have an accom-plished diplomatic career, including postings as Ambassador of Japan to the UN, the World Trade Organisation and the United States. He is currently President of the America–Japan Society and Distinguished Professor and Chairman of International Strategies at Sophia University, Tokyo. Although Asia was experiencing a period of political and eco-nomic flux, Fujisaki counselled against adapting too alarmist a reading of recent security and political developments in the region. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was seeking reforms to the country’s security policy, the essence of collective self-defence, Fujisaki argued, remained intact. Fundamentally, Japan was not a revisionist power, but one which had a vested interest in safeguarding peace. Furthermore, recent leadership transitions in China and Japan had bred opportunities alongside exist-ing challenges. Beijing, as much as Tokyo, Fujisaki noted, recognised the need to reduce the inter-state tensions that had undermined trust in the region. Watch the discussion here.

‘Changing Asia – A Japanese Perspective’

Japanese Self Defence Force parade, 2013 (Rikujojieitai Boueisho)

EVENTS

‘China’s Internet’ Discussion SeriesOn 27 October and 24 November, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster spoke at the first two of five planned events on China's cyber policies and capabilities. The first of these, ‘China's Internet: the Balance Between Openness and Security’, was chaired by IISS Director of Editorial, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security and Editor of the Adelphi Books, Nicolas Redman. Inkster argued that unlike in Western liberal democracies, the development of the Internet in China had been driven by the country’s top political leadership to promote economic development. Progress, he explained, had been remarkable, with China on the way to becoming a top-tier global cyber power. The Chinese leader-ship had also managed to simultaneously develop extensive mechanisms to monitor and censor online content and behaviours to maintain political control. Click here to listen to the presentation.

The second discussion, chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward, covered ‘China's International Cyber-Security Policy’. Inkster argued that China had always sought to engage in international discussion on global cyber governance and security as a way to defend and promote its own

value system. Over the course of 2014, he noted, China had become more energetic and assertive in leveraging its status as a major global cyber power to shape the international environment to its benefit. Audio of this event can be found here.

The next three events will deal with cyber espionage, military cyber capabilities and the global security implications of China's cyber policies and capabilities. These presentations will form the basis of an Adelphi book to be published in 2015.

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISKCHINACYBER SECURITY

ASIA-PACIFIC

AppointmentsThe IISS welcomes the following;

Isabel DiVannaMD; Corporate and External Relations

Tom KelmanInterim Head of Finance and Administration

Matthew HarriesManaging Editor, Survival

Ian KeddieResearch Analyst, Defence and Military Analysis

Brian JackSenior Systems Administrator

Tilly GroveProduction and Press Assistant

EXPERTS

16 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

An unarmed US Air Force Minuteman III ICBM launches during a test, December 2013 (Yvonne Morales/US Air Force)

Donestk People’s Republic fighter near the eastern Ukrainian city of Ilovaisk

US Arms Control Policy and Strategic Posture in the Face of a Resurgent Russia

Speaking at IISS–London on 6 October, Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, argued that in light of Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine, Washington's model of post-Soviet deterrence – and its associated approach to nuclear weapons control – needed to be revisited. Russia had shown, he suggested, that it was pre-pared to use force or the threat of force in the European neighbourhood. This meant that the US and its allies must be prepared to meet this challenge across a spectrum of military strategies, from the ‘little green men’ who had proved so effective in Crimea, to a full range of conventional and nuclear capabilities. In the strategic weapons sphere, Colby contended that the United States’ nuclear-weapons posture was not suited to countering Russia.

With regard to arms control, Colby stated that there was ‘a high degree of confidence’ in Washington that Russia had violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (There were both Russian cruise- and ballistic-missile systems that were candidates for treaty breaches in terms

of range performance.) The alleged violation, he maintained, was a ‘blow to trust’ that would not be repaired quickly. In the immediate post-Cold War era, arms control ‘became a mechanism for political rapprochement’ and an ‘instrument of warming ties’; this was no longer the case.

Colby emphasised that he was not arguing in favour of ‘unbridled stra-tegic competition’; rather, he proposed that Washington should ‘adapt its deterrence and defence policy’ to suit the changed circumstances. Listen to the event on the IISS website.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS EXPERTS

Sustaining the Space EnvironmentFrank Rose, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Space and Defense Policy, made a welcome return to the Institute on 21 November. Speaking at an event chaired by Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace, Rose explored issues including the further militarisation of space, anti-satellite weapons, missile defence and the continuing problem

of space debris. Regarding the last of these, efforts were underway to try to agree on an international code of conduct that would reduce the creation of debris. Rose pointed out that this issue was a problem for all space-far-ing nations, with the potential cause significant damage if not addressed. Referring to the 2007 test of an anti-satellite system by China that resulted in the creation of a large and still extant debris field, Rose argued that the risk of creating even more debris through similar tests must be avoided.

Hybrid Warfare‘Hybrid warfare’ was the topic of a high-level workshop held at Arundel House on 25 November. The term refers to the mix of military and non-military methods employed, for example, by Russia in Ukraine. The tactics have sparked considerable discussion at NATO headquarters and among defence policymakers in member countries of the Alliance.

The workshop was the third in a series held by the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, relating to the NATO summit that was held in Wales in September. The first seminar covered NATO as a maritime power, and the second considered NATO’s approach to capacity-building in fragile countries. The fourth and final workshop, to be held in early 2015, will consider how to meet NATO’s future ambitions.

The series of events is supported by NATO Public Diplomacy, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Speakers at the November workshop included Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies at King’s College London; Frank Hoffman of the US National Defence University, whose work helped to create the concept of hybrid warfare; Andrew Budd, who is closely involved in developing policies on the subject at NATO headquarters; Peter Watkins, Director General, Security Policy, UK MoD; Virginia Comolli, IISS

Research Fellow for Security and Development; Emile Simpson, author of War From the Ground Up; Keir Giles, Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre; and Rafal Rohozinski, CEO of the SecDev Group and IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security.

Sessions were chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence, Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, and Bastian Giegerich, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for European Security and Policy Adviser, German Ministry of Defence.

RUSSIA SPACEUNITED STATES

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 17

Officers from the UK and Italian armed forces plan an exercise (Crown Copyright/Obi Igbo)

US Air Force F-15s over northern Iraq after conducting airstrikes in Syria, September 2014 (Matthew Bruch/US Air Force)

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSISEXPERTS

Neither War Nor Peace: Why the Information Revolution Makes ‘Forever Wars’ a New Normal

The twenty-first century’s information revolution creates networked, multi-player, and open-ended conflicts that occupy a grey zone between war and peace. This was the concept discussed in a 26 November talk by Emile Simpson at IISS–London. Simpson is a former British Army officer, author of War From the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics, and currently an Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Simpson proposed that this type of dispute is the new normal. His discussion, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, analysed the challenges that arise from the prolif-eration and globalisation of information, allowing multiple actors to achieve degrees of connectivity with potentially revolutionary results. Some of these effects, he explained, were visible in links between violent extremists in the Maghreb, and in the rise of ISIS and rapid expansion

of its influence on jihadists worldwide. Moreover, he added, the glo-balisation of the world economy meant that properly applied economic sanctions were increasing in effectiveness. Simpson concluded by sug-gesting appropriate strategic responses to this development, including handling conflicts in a way that made the lines between war and peace clearer.

Countering ISIS

On 27 November, four IISS experts convened at Arundel House to discuss the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. The event was chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward.

Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge discussed three principal causes behind the failure of the Iraqi political system and subsequent rise of ISIS. The first of these was coercive weakness, due to pervasive corruption undermining the Iraqi state and military. The incen-tive for Iraqi soldiers to defend such a state was extremely low, leading them to abandon the country’s cities. Secondly, infrastructural weakness prevented necessary inter-ministerial coordination against ISIS. With each ministry controlled by a different sect, a strong, joint approach was largely impossible. Lastly, Dodge explained how Iraq’s ‘sectarian organising impulse’ had ‘persecuted and alienated’ Sunnis, sparking the mobilisation of groups like ISIS who sought revenge for their mistreat-ment.

Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry analysed the US-led coalition air campaign against ISIS. He noted that since the start of coalition air strikes, ISIS’s advance had indeed been halted. But the campaign was likely to increase in complexity, with Iraqi politics serv-ing as the critical limiting factor on military plans. Anti-ISIS operations in Syria, on the other hand, would significantly increase political risk. While Iran’s aims were aligned with the coalition in Iraq, Tehran and its ally Hezbollah have invested heavily in supporting the Assad regime – as had Russia. But the stated policy of the US and some of its key allies, includ-ing the UK, was that President Assad should step down. Attacking ISIS in Syria would therefore make the resolution of political and military contra-dictions unavoidable.

Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster then discussed the role of Western ISIS recruits in the fight against extremism. He emphasised the importance of differentiating between ‘misguided’ young people who arrive in Iraq and Syria to find themselves ‘out of their depth’ and truly dangerous extremists from whom the public must be protected. While ISIS ideology was likely to attract those with ‘psychopathic tenden-cies’, most Western recruits were confined to menial jobs or used as ‘cannon fodder’. Inkster concluded by suggesting that ISIS may eventually find itself ‘overstretched’ as it attempts to control an increasingly large region.

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem focused on the campaign against ISIS in Syria. He noted that conflicting national interests undermined this effort, as demonstrated by Turkey’s refusal to participate without a shift in US policy toward the Assad regime. Hokayem also dis-cussed the West’s loss of credibility with the Syrian opposition, who sought to prioritise the defeat of Assad over that of ISIS. ISIS, in turn, had taken advantage of this sentiment to recruit among Syrian rebels, depicting itself as the ‘spearhead’ in the fight against Assad. Hokayem also suggested that the decision to focus on battling ISIS in Kobane had allowed the group to make gains elsewhere while the coalition was distracted by events in a single town.

The full discussion is available to watch on the IISS website.

ISLAMIC STATE

18 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

THAILAND REFUGEESBRAZIL

President Dilma Rousseff gives an interview at the Presidential Palace (Brasil.gov.br)

Muslim schoolchildren ready to enter school in Saiburi, in Thailand’s southern province of Pattani (Madaree Tohlala/AFP/Getty)

The Italian navy helps a boatload of people trying to reach Europe from North Africa (UNHCR/Italian Navy/M. Sestini)

EXPERTS

Brazil’s Political Landscape: New Demands, New Actors

Following the re-election of incumbent Dilma Rousseff to the Brazilian presidency, IISS–UK held a discussion exploring the new demands voiced by the country’s middle class and their effects on the political process. The event featured two experienced observers of Brazilian politics: Marcus Freitas, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (FAAP), São Paulo, and Dr Anthony Pereira, Director of the Brazil Institute at King’s College London. Research Analyst for Security and Development Antônio Sampaio chaired the discussion, which took place on 21 October.

Freitas emphasised the growing role of individual figures, as opposed to political parties, in shaping Brazilian political discourse. This, Freitas added, was linked to the lack of fundamental differences between the key policy proposals of the main parties. Dr Pereira highlighted the economic debate at the centre of the electoral campaign, proposing a restructuring of the devel-opmental foundation of the state to allow a return to the high growth rates of the 2000s. He added that the so-called ‘Class C’ – the lower middle class – had become the key battleground, with many voters split between the social development achievements of Rousseff and the business-friendly proposals of the opposition. Listen to the discussion here.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

COIN in Thailand: Combining Security and Socio-economic Policies

On 28 October the Security and Development Programme hosted a dis-cussion meeting with Dr Jeff M. Moore, CEO of Muir Analytics and an established expert on Thai counterinsurgency (COIN).

The Thai government has a long history of dealing with insurgent movements. These have included a communist insurgency from 1965–1985, a southern separatist movement from 1980–98 and, from 2004 onward, the re-emergence of the southern separatist challenge, now fea-turing an Islamist component.

The meeting, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli, highlighted how successes had largely rested on the implementation of socio-economic programmes to com-plement traditional security approaches. During the communist COIN, for example, some intelligence officers lived in local villages, under the guise of doing anthropological research, to identify local needs and influential community leaders. Audio of the discussion is available here.

Migration from developing and conflict regions into Europe

On 24 November, Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli chaired a discussion aimed at addressing some of the trends and challenges regarding conflict-related displacement and migration. Andrej Mahecic, Senior External Relations Officer at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in London and Minister Vincenzo Celeste, Deputy Head of Mission at the Italian Embassy in London shared their views on the issue.

Mr Mahecic provided a detailed overview of this ‘unprecedented crisis’. He noted that 51.2 million people were currently in situations of forced displacement, describing this as ‘the largest humanitarian situation in the history of UNHCR’. Minister Celeste explained that EU migration policy had recently reached a critical juncture. Only this autumn, he stated,

had the concept of ‘burden sharing’ with regard to migration flows been comprehensively applied among EU member states, both operationally and financially. Listen to the full discussion on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 19

Interpol-led Operation Lionfish targeted the maritime trafficking of drugs and firearms across Central America and the Caribbean (Interpol)

EXPERTS SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

UK-Brazil Naval DialogueFor the second year in a row, Arundel House hosted a discussion between high-level representatives of the UK Ministry of Defence and the Brazilian Navy. The event took place on 29 October and was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies. Attendees included UK representatives involved in counter-narcotics, policy planning and strategy at the Ministry of Defence, Royal Navy, FCO and UK Trade & Investment. The Brazilian team was headed by the Navy’s Head of Strategy, Rear Admiral Flávio Rocha.

The sessions began with introductory remarks by senior IISS analysts, stimulating trilateral discussions between UK and Brazilian officials and IISS experts. The first of these examined capacity building aimed at coun-tering piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, along with the operational challenges that accompany this endeavour. This area is of strategic importance for Brazil, which maintains strong trade links with West Africa. Other issues covered included the build-up of naval forces in South Asia, extrem-ism and organised crime in West Africa and hybrid armed groups in Colombia.

Modernising Drug Law Enforcement

Arundel House hosted a seminar on 5–6 November to discuss new policies for reducing criminal violence, based on lessons learned in Europe and Latin America. The event was held in partnership with the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC) and Chatham House, with the support of the European Commission. Participants included high-level policymak-ers, diplomats, journalists, experts and representatives from international organisations such as Interpol, Ameripol, the United Nations and the Organization of American States (OAS).

The seminar explored Latin America as an example of a region with complex drug-related conflicts. Speakers noted that armed groups were diversifying their operations to include other illegal activities such as mining and money laundering. This raised issues about who, and what, should be targeted by law-enforcement agencies. Attendees suggested that law enforcement should focus on the supply chains for criminal groups, since a better understanding of how groups were con-

nected to one another would likely facilitate the formulation of better policies.

Moving on to more global topics, participants discussed the problems posed by online markets for drugs that relied on the so-called ‘Dark Net’. They concluded by examining new metrics established to assess success in law enforcement.

IISS–ASIAASIA-PACIFIC

Adelphi Launch: The Ties that DivideOn 14 November, IISS–Asia launched the Institute’s latest Adelphi book: The Ties That Divide: History, Honour and Territory in Sino-Japanese Relations, by Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security William Choong. The event drew strong interest from private sector individuals, scholars and the media.

IISS–Asia Executive Director Tim Huxley chaired the event, open-ing the discussion with an overview of IISS activities before highlighting the book’s pertinence to current debates about Sino-Japanese relations. Choong then provided an assessment of the key problems plaguing this relationship, noting how differences over historiography and disputed claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands had intensified the countries’ security dilemma. Given the high probability of accidental escalation sur-rounding the islands, Choong advocated a return to the 1972 ‘Shanghai Communiqué’, an agreement that saw the deferral of the island dispute and the establishment of confidence-building measures aimed at reduc-

ing Sino-Japanese tensions. He added that longer-term stabilisation strate-gies should include domestic efforts by both governments to temper aggressive nationalism, as well as a joint reassess-ment of the two countries’ historical relationship.

Choong argued that economic inter-dependence between China and Japan would not necessarily rule out conflict. The subsequent discussion concluded that the two countries needed to put aside their differences – at best, this would increase the likelihood of a longer-term rapprochement; at worst, it would prevent the further deterioration of their bilateral rela-tionship.

20 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

Regional Reactions to Chinese Nuclear PostureOn 27 October, the IISS held a workshop in Seoul, South Korea, in part-nership with the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC). The event was part of a project to strengthen cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking communities on nuclear issues. Expanding on previous discussions exploring nuclear security cooperation in the narrow sense of the physical security of nuclear facili-

ties, this meeting considered nuclear security more broadly, including regional responses to nuclear postures and the continuing challenge posed by North Korea. Further sessions were also devoted to discussing the likely contributions to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and fuel cycle choices in the region. The workshop attracted more than 30 experts from China, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

P5+1 Talks on Iran’s nuclear programme at the UN in Geneva, November 2014 (US Mission Geneva/Eric Bridiers)

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT EXPERTSNORTH KOREA

After the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with IranOn 28 November, four days after the second deadline for the negotia-tion of a final deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, the IISS hosted a panel to assess the talks. The event was chaired by IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick. Panellists discussed the implications of the extension, the state of the Iranian economy and what potential sanctions relief might achieve, and the current domestic political environment. Speakers included Ali Ghezelbash, an independ-ent strategic consultant in politics and the energy industry; Rouzbeh Parsi, a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Human Rights Studies at Lund University, Sweden, and former Senior Analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS); and Ariane Tabatabai, an associate and former Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. The panel identified Iran’s enrichment programme, the timeframe of a final agreement, and the type and timeline of sanctions relief as the remaining sticking points. Overcoming these final hurdles would be dif-ficult, especially as hardliners in Tehran were deliberately trying to box in the negotiators so that they could not accept further compromises. Economically, the Rouhani administration was focused on better disci-

pline, but this would require a degree of sanctions relief, which could only be obtained through a final agreement. Watch the event on the IISS website here.

IRAN CHINA

MEMBERSHIP

Membership EventsThroughout October and November, the IISS hosted several events for current and prospective mem-bers. On 1 October, Dana Allin (Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival), Mark Fitzpatrick (Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Samuel Charap (Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia) spoke at an open house for graduate students in Washington. The three experts introduced the Institute’s key publications and highlighted upcom-ing public events scheduled for autumn 2014.

On 9 October, Professor Sir Michael Howard (President Emeritus), Adam Ward (Director of Studies), Hervé Le Mahieu (Research Associate for Political Economy and Security; Coordinator for Research and Fundraising), Dina Esfandiary (Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Joseph Dempsey (Research Analyst, Military Balance) addressed current and prospective young professional members on the history and work of the Institute at Arundel House.

Most recently, Mark Fitzpatrick, Nigel Inkster (Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk) and Virginia Comolli (Research Fellow for Security and Development) spoke to Institute mem-bers in London on 19 November. They discussed their roles at the IISS before inviting members to share their suggestions on the directions of IISS research.

The Military Balance 2015The forthcoming Military Balance 2015 will be launched on 12 February 2015.

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2014 | 21

‘Great Rapprochement? Strategic Relations in Asia’Leading up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings in Beijing, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security Christian Le Mière visited IISS–US to discuss expectations for the international summit, along with future regional trends. Recalling the increase in diplomatic communication and drawdown of maritime patrols, Le Mière suggested a potential rapprochement in Asian politics may be underway. While still addressing the obstacles of Japanese and Chinese domestic politics and China’s pursuit of a hegemonic status, comments focused on efforts made to lessen tensions between China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Participants also noted that recent progress made across Southeast Asia hinted at the emergence of a less confrontational environment. Chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell, this event took place on 6 November and can be viewed on the IISS website.

‘Cyber Warfare and Sino-American Crisis Instability’

On 12 November the Honourable David C. Gompert, Visiting Professor at the United States Naval Academy and Senior Fellow at the RAND Corporation, and Dr Martin Libicki, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, spoke at IISS–US. Addressing the crisis instability of cyber warfare between China and the US, they argued that as these militaries continued to develop their cyber capabilities, they were inevitably rendering any type of confrontation more dangerous for both countries. Gompert and Libicki contended that following this path would leave each side with several motivations to attack pre-emptively rather than later on, and with tremendous force. Cyber warfare, they also noted, becomes more fragile when trying to gauge the magnitude, intent and targeting limitations of an

attack. The speakers warned that as each country became increasingly fear-ful of what the other was capable of in a society where cyber norms do not exist, any crisis scenario had the potential to provoke a rapid escalation. This event was chaired by Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap and is available to watch on the IISS website.

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Meeting in Beijing, China (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)

A Chinese Long March-4B rocket carrying the CBERS-4 satellite is launched in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, December 2014 (Xinhua/Tian Zhaoyun)

Members hold a working session on ‘Future NATO’ at the NATO Summit Wales 2014 (Crown copyright/Tom Robinson)

IISS–USEXPERTS ASIA-PACIFIC

‘The New Landscape of European Security’

On 10 September, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet discussed the new phase of security operations NATO would face after its operations wound down in Afghanistan. NATO’s newest security concerns were much closer to home – namely, the crisis in Ukraine and the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). The US, Chollet explained, sought to assist its European partners in both of these areas, as the Alliance ‘doesn’t have the luxury of choosing’. Regarding the Ukraine crisis, Chollet said that the US had been working to develop a bilateral security relationship with Ukraine. Yet with the latter still facing many challenges, rang-ing from corruption to heavily armed separatists, the US and other NATO member-states had decided to develop this relationship slowly. Ukraine, for example, still had not received lethal assistance from any NATO member-state.

Chollet argued that if Russia stopped pursuing destabilising politics in its neighbourhood, the West would welcome it as a partner. Despite disagreements and Russia’s aggressive behaviour, there were still issues that require US–Russia cooperation in order to be addressed. These include Iran’s nuclear programme and Syria’s chemical weapons pro-gramme. This discussion, held at IISS–US, was moderated by IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap and can be viewed on the IISS website.

CYBER SECURITY NATO

22 | DECEMBER 2014 IISS NEWS

New Adelphi Books

Adelphi 445The Ties That DivideWilliam ChoongThe cool-headed decision of China and Japan in the 1970s to shelve contentious issues such as Japan’s wartime record and the question of sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has been overturned. In its place, lead-ers and publics are indulging in nationalism and an inclination toward irrational or risky behaviour. Both nations have invested much more in their claims to the islands than is justified by their value or the costs of an open conflict over them. Neither the cultural and linguistic affinities between the two countries nor their economic interdependence preclude the possibility that the dispute over the islands could escalate and even lead to war.

In this Adelphi William Choong argues that there is a pressing need for China and Japan to work out bilateral arrangements to prevent a fur-ther deterioration in relations. To identify such steps, he explores their disputes over historiog-raphy and territory, and how these are affected by their military postures, the US-Japanese alli-ance and the regional security architecture.

Adelphi 446Paper Tigers: China’s Nuclear PostureJeffrey LewisChina’s nuclear arsenal has long been an enigma. It is a small force, based almost exclusively on land-based ballistic missiles, maintained at a low level of alert and married to a no-first-use doctrine – all choices that would seem to invite attack in a crisis. Chinese leaders, when they have spoken about nuclear weapons, have artic-ulated ideas that sound odd to the Western ear. Mao Zedong’s oft-quoted remark that ‘nuclear weapons are a paper tiger’ seems to be bluster or madness.

China’s nuclear forces are now too important to remain a mystery. Yet Westerners continue to disagree about basic factual information concerning one of the world’s most impor-tant nuclear-weapons states. This Adelphi book documents and explains the evolution of China’s nuclear forces in terms of histori-cal, bureaucratic and ideological factors. There is a strategic logic at work, but that logic is

mediated through politics, bureaucracy and ideology. The simplest explanation is that Chinese leaders, taken as a whole, have tended to place relatively little emphasis on the sort of technical details that dominated US discussions regarding deterrence. Such profound differ-ences in thinking about nuclear weapons could lead to catastrophic misunderstanding in the event of a military crisis between Beijing and Washington.

Adelphi 447–448Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the Rise of ISISEdited by Toby Dodge and Emile HokayemTo mark the tenth anniversary of the IISS Manama Dialogue process and to capitalise on the new light it has shed on security issues in the Gulf and the wider Middle East, this Adelphi brings together the results of two workshops

held by IISS in its Middle East office in Manama. Featuring essays by nine IISS analysts and a number of outside experts, the book examines the most important geostrategic issues in the region, including the myriad security challenges it faces. These interlinked papers focus in par-ticular on the regional ramifications of the civil war in Syria and the effects of the United States’ changing posture in the Middle East.

The aim of this Adelphi is to both highlight and develop the ongoing discussions and debates about Gulf security that have taken place at the Manama Dialogue over the previous decade, and that will continue to do so over the next ten years. As such, it capitalises on the IISS’s global reputation not only as the world leader in convening para-diplomatic events, but also as a provider of the best possible objective informa-tion and analysis on global military and political developments.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

In the December 2014–January 2015 issue of Survival, Lawrence Freedman examines Russia’s strategy in the Ukraine conflict; Emile Hokayem analyses the Syrian civil war in light of competi-tion between Iran and the Gulf states; and Robert Ayson and Desmond Ball explore the dangers of confrontation between China, Japan and the United States in the Asia-Pacific. Also in the issue: Alexander Nicoll on Britain’s politics of union and immigration; Henri J. Barkey on Turkey’s growing isolation; and Alexa van Sickle on governance in South Africa.

PUBLICATIONS

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