iif panel “new methods for old questions” big data at bbva ... · 5 5 5 15 5 15 15 5 15 15 16 6...
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IIF Panel “New Methods for Old Questions”.
Big Data at BBVA Research
Alvaro Ortiz, PhD October 2017, IIF Annual Meetings Washington DC
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
2
Big Data allows us to use massive new flows of data (numbers, text &
images…) on real time to traditional and new ways of research
Massive Flows
of New Data
On Real
Time
New Potential:
Texts & Images
Political, Geopolitical Social Indexes (Political Indexs)
Politics & Financial Networks (Political Netwoks)
Mix Hard data & Sentiment & VAR models (Vulnerability and Risks Index Models)
Geographical Analysis Housing Prices (sentiment on Housing Prices)
Monetary & Stability tones by Central Banks
Measuring Sentiments, Narratives on News (sentiment Analysis on Economy and Society News)
(sentiment Analysis on Central Bank texts) High
Definition
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
The new technologies allow us to measure Conflicts and Social
Unrest more timely and to analyze similar periods in the past
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BBVA Research World Protest Index 1979-2017 World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Note: more information and technical details in the following link.
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
In a very granular way…
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BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Map Jan 2011 – September 2017
BBVA Research Middle East Conflict Map 2017 USA
UK
Norway
Sweden
Austria
Germany
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Bosnia
Montenegro
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Croatia
Turkey
Russia
Ukraine
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Yemen
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Argentina
Venezuela
China
Hong Kong
Korea
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
India
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Asi
a
2016
N.
Afr
ica
& M
idd
le E
ast
Dev
elo
ped
Mar
kets
LAT
AM
2015
EM E
uro
pe
& C
IS
2011 2012 2013 2014 2017
Protest Intensity: Low HighSource: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
… from the origin and destiny of massive flows of migrants to
Europe… to how fast a conflict can erupt in North Korea to critical levels
5 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map 2015-17 Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows and outflows
BBVA Research Asia Conflict Index 2008-17
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
Thanks to Big Data we can check in real time how is the
material and verbal support on World Trade…
6 6 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
BBVA Research World Trade Support Index in real time (Tone & Coverage verbal cooperation at WTO)
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Material Cooperation on Trade
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Verbal Cooperation On Trade
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Material cooperation
On trade was already declining…
… Before Verbal Sudden Stop
finally materialized…
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
BBVA Monthly GDP Indicator
Economic Sentiment (English Media)
Or measuring Economic Sentiment according to news and
checking “biases” on local and foreign media…
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Turkey GDP & Economic Sentiment (%YoY and English written Economic Sentiment)
Turkey GDP & Economic Sentiment (%YoY and Turkish written Economic Sentiment)
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
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BBVA Monthly GDP Indicator
Economic Sentiment (Turkish Media)
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
… Perceptions and “narratives” are important for Business
cycle sentiment but also for Risks
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BBVA Chinese Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CSVI) (Evolution of the “Tone” of main followed themes about vulnerability in China. Lower values indicate a deterioration of sentiment and higher vulnerability)
De
clin
ing
Se
ntim
en
t
(Hig
he
r Vu
lne
rab
ility)
Imp
rovin
g S
en
time
nt
(Lo
we
r Vu
lne
rab
ility)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ma
r-1
5
Apr-
15
Ma
y-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-1
5
Aug-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Jan-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Apr-
16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun-1
6
Jul-1
6
Aug-1
6
Sep-1
6
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
Ma
y-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Stock Market Crash
"Black Monday"
stock market crash, trade halted for 3 day
PMI falls to 4-Y low
RMB enters IMF's SDR basket
NPC meeting
3% Devaluation
NPC Accepts Lower Growth Target
Neutral Area +- 1std
Extr
em
ely
Po
sitiv
e
Extr
em
ely
Neg
ative
Concerns over effectiveness of deleveraging campaign
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Note: more information and technical details in the following link.
IIF Panel “ New Methods for Old Questions”
We can learn from texts and wording of the Central Banks or
any official public & private report
9 9
Central Bank “Sentiment” on Economy ( Standarized, Big Data LDA Techniques applied to Minutes & statements) .
Central Bank Sentiment on Inflation ( Standarized, Big Data LDA Techniques applied to Minutes & statements)
Monetary Policy Sentiment ( Standarized, estimated though Big Data LDA Techniques from Minutes & Statements) Positive Sentiment
(economy Accelerating)
Positive Sentiment
(Accelerating Inflation Pressures)
Tightening
Easing
Source: BBVA Research
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-2
-1
0
1
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1/1
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7/1
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1/1
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1/1
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/1/2
011
6/1
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/1/2
012
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/1/2
013
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/1/2
014
6/1
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15
12
/1/2
015
6/1
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12
/1/2
016
7/1
/20
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October 2017, IIF Annual Meetings Washington DC
IIF Panel “New Methods for Old Questions”.
Big Data at BBVA Research
Alvaro Ortiz, PhD