IFEX 2010NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010

Robert RogersNOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006)

IFEX intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by: 1)collecting observations that span TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation2)developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment3)improving understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle

2010 HRD Field Program Plans

– Continuation of IFEX objectives– ~700 hours total for all aircraft– N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF

available early August, N49RF (G-IV) available early June

– Crews available for two-per-day missions starting early July (Tampa and deployments)

IFEX goal 3: Improving understanding• Genesis• SAL/vortex interactions• Rapid Intensity Change• Ocean observations• Landfall coordination

Focus areas for 2010IFEX goal 1: Collecting observations for model initialization/evaluation

• Doppler radar• Synoptic surveillance• HWRFx real-time runs• HFIP real-time runs

• SFMR evaluations/possible HIRAD• Doppler Wind Lidar• Ocean winds/AWRAP• Coyote low-level UAS• Global Hawk high-level UAS

IFEX goal 2: Developing and refining measurement technologies

IFEX1: HWRF Doppler Support Missions• 2 P-3 Flights per day--on-station time centered on 0, 6, 12, and 18

UTC analysis periods -optimum 3 days of flights in a row starting at tropical depression or maybe pre-depression stage

• For example, data for 12 UTC analysis, must be collected from 0900-1500 UTC. Thus, P-3 takeoffs will be planned (within personnel and safety constraints) to maximize time within this window

TS Dolly (2008)

7/21 23Z 7/22 11Z 7/22 23Z

IFEX1: Real-time Doppler Data

• ASCII files containing wind fields at 0.5 & 1.0 km, & vertical cross-sections, available to NHC

• Real-time 3D wind fields on AOML ftp site for possible assimilation/initialization of models

• Trimmed, quality-controlled Doppler radials for assimilation into parallel HWRF -path off aircraft appears not quite ready yet

• Doppler radial-velocity superobs transmitted to AOML ftp site for researchers to assimilate

IFEX 1: HWRFx-HFIP Demo System• HWRFx: based on WRF-NMM code, similar architecture to HWRF• HWRF initial conditions currently; EnKF using airborne radar, GPS drops under development• Coupling with ocean model under development• 9-3 km current capability, near completion of 9-3-1 km capability

100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

25 50 75radius (km)

03Z 8/29 27:9 km

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

25 50 75 100radius (km)

03Z 8/29 9:3 km

25 50 75

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

hei

gh

t (k

m)

100radius (km)

19:23Z 8/28 Doppler

Axisymmetric tangential wind from Hurricane Katrina (2005) after RI

Wind swaths for Hurricane Bill and TS Erika (2009) for 9-3 km

IFEX 1: FY09 HFIP Real-time Test• Diverse NOAA (HRD, ESRL, NCEP/NHC, NCO, EMC), Navy (NRL), NCAR, and

university (FSU, PSU, SUNYA, URI, TACC) team testing on-demand capability to support operational hurricane forecasting.

• Build upon FY08 HFIP HRH & TACC efforts to use high resolution:

– Global (FIM and GFS at 10-km, plus 15-km FIM ensembles); and

– Regional models, both operational and experimental, to demonstrate on-demand capability and multi-model regional ensembles.

• HWRF (operational, 4-km, 3-km HWRFx)• GFDL• WRF-ARW (4-km NCAR, 4-km FSU, 4.5-km PSU using EnKF to assimilate Doppler superobs)• COAMPS-TC• MM5 (4-km)

• NCEP model fields & NOAA P-3 Doppler radar superobs transferred automatically from NCO to ESRL and TACC, experimental models run, standard output products generated for forecasters, and products transferred to NHC.

• Products– ATCF tracks (Marchok and other trackers)– HRH diagnostic suite (track (Marchok tracker), intensity, RI)– Ensemble diagnostics– New diagnostic and evaluation tools

IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologiesHIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer)

• Passive C-band Radiometer, similar technology to SFMR

• Objective: To measure strong ocean surface winds through heavy rain from air or space-based platform

– Cross-track as well as along-track imaging (Swath width ~60o,~3 x altitude)– Winds dynamic range: 10 – 85 m/s, through rain up to ~90 mm/hr– Would complement scatterometers and lidars

• Institutional Partnerships:– Project leadership, PI, and engineering at NASA/MSFC– Technology, engineering, and science partners: NOAA/HRD, Univ. Central Florida, Univ.

Michigan, Univ. Alabama Huntsville

Simulation of surface wind speed (m s-1) seen from 18-km altitude in mature TC with HIRAD

IWRAP/AWRAP Overview C-band and Ku-band Conically-Scanning Profiling Scatterometer

Simultaneous dual-frequency measurements of: Volume reflectivity and Doppler profiles Surface normalized radar cross-section

Supports: Calibration/Validation of current OSVW satellite missions

(ASCAT/METOP and Oceansat-2 scatterometer)

Risk reduction for future satellite sensors

(Dual-Frequency Scatterometer on GCOM-W2)

Ocean and atmospheric boundary layer research

(tropical and extratropical cyclones)

Improved utilization of existing OSVW data via improved knowledge

of remote-sensing capabilities and limitations in extreme

environmental conditions (i.e., tropical and extratropical cyclones)

IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

Coyote Low-Altitude UASIFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

• Fill existing low altitude data void in hurricanes • Safely provide continuous observations of T,P,V, q below 200ft

Coyote UAS – P3 Mature Hurricane Eyewall Pattern

Example of P3 Doppler Wind Lidar data display in Google Earth

• Winds are displayed in 50 meter vertical resolution wind flags;• Panel between wind profiles contains aerosol loading as function of height

Courtesy G. D. Emmitt

IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

5 km 5 km 5 km

1 km 1 km 1 km

07:40Z 14Aug 18:35Z 14Aug 19:25Z 15Aug

Doppler-derived wind speed and vectors (m s-1) for Pre-Fay (2008)

• Convective/mesoscale interactions during genesis (e.g., “bottom-up” vs. “top-down”, convective vs. stratiform processes)

• Synoptic-scale influences on genesis (e.g., SAL, “marsupial” paradigm)• Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale, broad temporal coverage

IFEX3: Tropical cyclogenesis

Best track position of Fay

(courtesy weather.unisys.com)

How does moisture and vertical wind shear in the surrounding TC environment impact TC intensity?

Hypothesis: Arc cloud formation can disrupt TC intensity by:a) promoting downdrafts locallyb) promoting low to mid-level outflow c) bringing cool, dry air down into the boundary layer

Arc CloudsDry air intrusion

46 kt SSE jet

86 kt SE jetDry air intrusion

IFEX3: SAL/Vortex interactions

Hurricane Bill (20 Aug 2009)CIMSS TPW (1200 UTC)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

IFEX3: Rapid Intensity Change

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

06:56Z 07Nov

06:56Z 07Nov

17:54Z 07Nov

17:54Z 07Nov

17:21Z 08Nov

17:21Z 08Nov

r-z plots of axisymmetric reflectivity (dBZ, top) and wind speed (m s -1, bottom) for Paloma (2008)

r (km) r (km) r (km)

r (km) r (km) r (km)

• Convective/mesoscale interactions during RI (e.g., role of convective hot towers, convective vs. stratiform processes)

• Synoptic-scale influences on RI (e.g., SAL)• Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale,

broad temporal coverage

P3 P3 P3

Paloma (2008) RI experiment

Observe and improve our understanding of the LC response to the near-surface wind structure during TC passages. Specific objectives are:

• Determine the oceanic response of the LC to TC forcing; and, • Influence of the LC response on the TC’s boundary layer and intensity.

Deliverables include:

V, T, S profiles to 1000 m @ 2-m resolution.

Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD.

Atmospheric profiles of V, T and RH @ 5-m resolution.

IFEX3: Loop Current Response During TC Passage

IFEX3: LANDfall and Inland decay

• Airborne sensors– Airborne Doppler– GPS dropsondes– Flight-level, SFMR winds– AWRAP– SRA

• Ground sensors (DHC)– FCMP towers– TTU Sticknet– Mobile radars– Coastal Mesonets– 88D radars

• Diagnose and understand processes that control size and structure of surface wind field at landfall and inland

• Measure structure of intense convection located in an offshore rainband• Coordination among airborne and ground-based sensors