ieej : november 2013 all right reservedeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5350.pdf · larger than the supply of...

© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013 – Photo credit: © thermalcities.com

Didier Houssin

Director Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology

18 October 2013

IEEJ : November 2013 All Right Reserved

© OECD/IEA 2013

Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Industry Transport Power generation

Buildings

Unrealised energy efficiency potential

Realised energy efficiency potential

Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario


© OECD/IEA 2013

A big market with bigger potential

USD300 billion market

Already delivers substantial reduction

Recent growth driven by policy and high energy prices

Bright national policy prospects

Potential $458 billion / year of savings by 2020


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USD300Bn global EE market in 2011

Comparable to RE and fossil power generation investments

BUT, investments in energy efficiency are still less than two-thirds of the level of fossil fuel subsidies

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Upstream oil and gas *

Coal, oil and gas electricity generation ***

Renewable electricity

generation **

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

subsidies *

Fossil fuel subsidies *

US

D b

illio

n

Estimated range of USD 147 to 300 billion

EE stands alongside

supply resources


© OECD/IEA 2013

• Between 1974 and 2010, energy efficiency was the largest energy resource

• Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency in these IEA countries amounted to over 1 350 EJ (32 billion toe)

IEA’s first fuel?

Long-term improvements in energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries

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Mto

e

EJ

Coal Oil GasElectricity Other Avoided energy useTFC

Total final Consumption (TFC)

Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency

improvementsAvoided energy equal to 65% of 2010 TFC


© OECD/IEA 2013

Energy efficiency contributed 63 exajoules (EJ) (1400mtoe) of avoided energy use in 2010 larger than the supply of oil (43 EJ), electricity or natural gas (22 EJ each)

In 2010 energy efficiency was the largest resource

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Oil Electricity Gas Coal Other Avoided energy use

Mto

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EJ

Contribution of energy efficiency compared to other energy resources consumed in 2010 in 11 IEA countries


© OECD/IEA 2013

Final energy use increased by 0.5%/year between 1990 and 2010

Efficiency effect is larger than the effect of structural changes in restraining energy growth

Energy efficiency has been the key factor restraining energy growth

Changes in TFC, decomposed into structure, activity and efficiency effects for 15 IEA countries

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2010

Av

era

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TFC Activity effect Structure effect Efficiency effect


© OECD/IEA 2013

Overall, just over half (54%) of the average annual reduction in intensity was due to improved efficiency.

46% of the reduction was due to changes in economic structure.

For 4 out of 15 countries energy efficiency was the dominant factor reducing energy intensity

Changes in aggregate intensities of 15 IEA countries, decomposed into structure and efficiency effects, 1990-2010

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

Av

era

ge

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nu

al

ch

an

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Efficiency effect Structure effect


© OECD/IEA 2013

Country case studies

Markets have distinctive characteristics related to country-specific socio-economic conditions and resource endowments.

Information provision and regulation have played a leading role in stimulating the energy efficiency market standards and labelling

providing access to energy assessments and financing

energy efficiency obligations placed on energy suppliers

Utility and energy service company (ESCO) schemes have also driven growth, especially among large energy users.


© OECD/IEA 2013

Appliances are increasingly becoming network-connected

Smart appliance global market value

Network-connectivity and information communication technology can enable energy efficiency BUT they are also rapidly driving up energy demand Network standby could be 550TWh/yr if we don’t act

Standards (Energy Star, Top Runner) are key

40 509 9842,150

3,772

6,266

9,773

14,597

19,942

26,149

0

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10,000

15,000

20,000

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30,000

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Technology focus: the digital era is defining future appliance EE markets

10% of all

products will be

‘smart’ within 6

years


© OECD/IEA 2013

Japan: a Top Runner in Energy Efficiency

Expected to deliver USD 3 bn in consumer benefits for lighting,

vehicles and appliances

Broaden scope to cover three-phase induction motors, LEDs, heat pumps and printers in 2015.

What is the energy efficiency spillover to international markets from Top Runner’s stimulation of efficient technologies?

Products Target year Additional cost *

(JPY billion) Direct benefit **

(JPY billion) Avoided energy

demand

Lighting 2005 3.4 38.1 14 040 GWh

(1.2 Mtoe)

Refrigerator 2004 19.0 80.7 29 749 GWh

(2.6 Mtoe)

Gasoline vehicle (1st

regulation) 2010 41.5 107.6

7 654 ML (6.6 Mtoe)

Video tape recorder 2003 3.5 8.8 3 241 GWh (0.28 Mtoe)

Air conditioner 2004 29.1 63.7 23 483 GWh

(2 Mtoe)

Electric rice-cooker 2008 2.1 2.4 888 GWh

(0.08 Mtoe)

Gasoline vehicle (2nd

regulation)

2015 60.7 65.4 4 436 ML

(3.9 Mtoe)

Warming toilet seat 2006 5.5 6.0 2 210 GWh (0.19 Mtoe)

Television 2003 28.1 23.9 8 819 GWh (0.76 Mtoe)

Personal computer 2005 48.0 17.9 6 611 GWh (0.57 Mtoe)

Microwave 2008 5.1 1.5 588 GWh

(0.05 Mtoe)

Totals - 246.0 416.0 -


© OECD/IEA 2013

Korea: accelerating high efficiency appliances

Korean ESCOs reached USD 330 million in 2011, an increase of 63% from 2010. ESCO’s avoided 1.3 Mtoe in 2011.

The total number of high-efficiency products is increasing very fast in Korea.

Fuel-efficient vehicles are accelerating rapidly in Korea from 30% to 100% compliance with 17 km/l by 2015.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1


© OECD/IEA 2013

Prospects –looking forward

Energy efficiency markets are expected to grow in the medium term :

Significant growth expected in private investment enabled by government policy rather than direct public investment.

End-use energy price is also a key driver,

but analysis is limited by data availability and relatively greater uncertainties in projecting future pricing trends.


© OECD/IEA 2013

EEMR2013: Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Part I: Framework

Measuring the market for EE

Understanding the market for EE

What the numbers say: EE and changing energy use

Technology Focus: appliances, lighting and ICT

Part II: Country Review

Australia; Canada; China; European Union; France; Germany; India; Japan; Korea; Mexico; New Zealand; South Africa; South East Asian countries; United Kingdom; United States

Part III: Selected Data


© OECD/IEA 2013

EEMR2014

EEWP support an EEMR in 2014 with:

A focus on Electricity Efficiency

Succinct country case studies–expand country base

Global Technology focus on Buildings or Transport

Improved data from countries


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