[ieee 2011 international conference & utility exhibition on power and energy systems: issues and...
TRANSCRIPT
Assessment of Energy Security and Low Carbon Society Scenarios in Thailand and Sri Lanka
Sujeetha Selvakkumaran and Bundit Limmeechokchai
Abstract--The term energy security has permeated itself into
the energy landscape rapidly in the last decade due to the
imminent threat of scarcity of conventional energy supply. Low
carbon society (LCS) planning has become the key phrase in the
fight to mitigate climate change. This paper attempts to analyse
the effect of the reduction of C02 emissions from the power
sector on the energy security of Thailand and Sri Lanka. Both
countries have been modeled using a bottom-up integer
programming based optimization model called "Model for
Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General
Environmental Impacts" (MESSAGE). Thailand and Sri Lanka
have been modeled as individual single region case studies with
five scenarios each, with mitigation of C02 emissions from the
power sector modeled with the reduction of 10%,20%,30% and
40% in comparison to the Reference scenario. In this paper,
energy security is measured using three main themes; namely oil
security, gas security and sustainability. Results of the assessment
indicate that whilst oil security and gas security are not
significantly affected by the low carbon policies implemented,
sustainability of the energy sector is improved for the case of
Thailand, while the same scenarios have significant beneficial
impacts on both the themes of oil security and sustainability for
the case of Sri Lanka.
Index Terms--Energy security, Low carbon society, oil
security, Sri Lanka, sustainability, Thailand
I. INTRODUCTION
ENERGY security is defined as the availability of energy
supply sources at an affordable price [1] but this
definition is deemed to be ambiguous [2], and the author goes
onto explain energy security as the new 'catch-phrase' in
global politics and emphasizes how big a role energy is going
to play in the current times. Many researchers have studied the
salient aspects of energy security in detail and a few amongst
them are [3]-[7]. In [6] the author speaks about the need to
place a temporal dimension on energy security, and explains
that energy security is a time bound entity. In another work,
the author stresses that researcher and policymakers should
not constrain themselves in thinking that energy security is
Authors would like to thank Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment for their financial support for this study.
S. Selvakkumaran is a Masters student at Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, P.O. Box 12121, Pathum Thani, Thailand. (e-mail: [email protected])
B. Limmeechokchai is the Chair of the Mechanical Engineering Programme at Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, P.O. Box 12121, Pathum Thani, Thailand. (e-mail: [email protected]).
affected only by the security of supply, but rather should look
at energy security in its entirety, encompassing elements such
as sustainability and developmental aspects as well [8].
A low carbon society (LCS) or low fossil-fuel economy is
a concept that refers to an economy which has a minimal
output of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the biosphere,
but specifically refers to the CO2 [9]. This society will adopt a
lifestyle that makes more use of energy efficient devices and
renewable energy technologies. Research studies normally list
energy security as a co-benefit of LCS, as LCS inherently
advises moving away from fossil fuels [10]. Reference [11]
states that to avoid the huge risk of climate change, the world
should reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically by the
middle of this century. Even though this LCS concept has
been adapted and accepted in a few developed Asian
countries, the developing Asian countries are just coming to
terms with this concept, or for that matter coming to grips
with the abatement of CO2 emissions. In this regard, the
effects CO2 mitigation measures in the power sector have on
the energy security of developing Asian countries like Sri
Lanka and Thailand have been analysed in this paper.
Sri Lanka is an island state in the Indian Ocean, with an
approximate population of 21 million as of 2009. The Sri
Lankan energy system is primarily a traditional biomass-based
energy system and the country does not possess any known
oil, gas or coal reserves. The renewable potential, especially
the major and small hydro potential is extensive and so is the
potential for biomass based electric generation [12]. Thailand
is a Southeast Asian country with an approximate population
of 60 million which has seen rapid economic and social
development in the past few decades. Thailand imports
approximately 57% of its total primary energy and oil and
natural gas (NG) accounted for nearly 90% of this imported
energy.
The objectives of this paper are to analyse and assess the
impact of CO2 emissions mitigation on energy security of
Thailand and Sri Lanka. For this purpose, the authors have
deemed that energy security consists of three main
contributory themes which are oil security, gas security and
sustainability. In the case of Sri Lanka, since Sri Lanka does
not use natural gas (NG) energy security will be assessed in
terms of sustainability and oil security. The sub-indicators for
each theme will be dealt with in detail at a later stage.
Both Sri Lanka and Thailand have been modeled as
individual single region case studies consisting of five
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-11111$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
scenarios each. In addition to the Reference scenario the other
scenarios modeled are LCS 1 corresponding to 10% reduction
in CO2 emissions in comparison to the Reference scenario,
LCS2 corresponding to 20% reduction in CO2 emissions in
comparison to the Reference scenario and so on and so forth
up to LCS4. Both these countries have been modeled using
Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their
General Environmental Impacts" (MESSAGE). It is an integer
programming based bottom-up optimization model which
effectively models supply side strategies for various scenarios.
The details about MESSAGE are given in [13].
II. METHODOLOGY
Sri Lankan and Thailand energy systems have been
modeled in MESSAGE for the purpose of this research study.
Prior to modeling certain socio-economic assumptions had to
be made and the [mal end-use demand levels had to be set.
The sub-section which follows deals with this aspect and also
presents the sub-indicators and themes which are used in this
research paper to assess energy security of both countries.
A. Data and assumptions
Thailand's socio-economic assumptions are given in Table
I, and the demands of different end-use categories are given in
Table II.
TABLE 1 THE SOCIo-EcONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS OF THAILAND [141
Ye. Popa1don GDPiaUSD billion
2007 60.9 111.63
2010 61.6 123.23
2015 62.5 141M
2020 64.1 177.95
2025 65.1 223.89
2030 67.4 211.69
The Sri Lankan socio-economic assumptions are given in
Table III, and the demands of different end-use categories are
given in Table IV. In addition to this it should be noted that in
the LCS scenario conventional coal thermal power plants
proposed for both Sri Lanka and Thailand are replaced with
clean coal technology such as Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle (lGCC) and IGCC with Carbon Capture and
Storage (CCS) technologies.
B. Assessment of Energy Security
As mentioned before in the introduction, this paper
assesses energy security along three main themes which are
oil security, gas security and sustainability. The appropriate
sub-indicators for the main themes have been selected to
accurately indicate the levels of energy security.
2
TABLE II DEMANDS OF END-USES IN THAILAND'S ENERGY SYSTEM [141
Daoand Daoandia AmmaJ. GmwIb. Rate .
s 2007(ktoe) . . 11453.32
5260.45 4.5
Households 2411.53 3.0 Comrncmc 3686.48 4.0
0Ihc:n 94.86 3.0 Oil 32318.00
6691.00 4.0 Howseholds 1435.00 1.7
Cornrneww 770.00 3.0 23422.00 4.4
NBbmIlGu 2594.00 2386.00 7.3 208.00 10.0
BiOJllllllS 11645.00 5936.00 4.1
Howseholds 5709.00 -0.1
Lianitc 1000.00
1000.00 5.3 Coal 5981.00
5981.00 5.3
TABLE l l l SOCIo-ECONOMlC ASSUMPTIONS OF SRI LANKA
v., Pupuhdiun GDPia iDmilliou USDbillicm
2007 20.0 32.70
2010 20.6 37.85
201� 21-7 411-11
2020 22.8 61.66
2025 23.9 78.70
20..10 2�'-2. 100-44
TABLE IV DEMANDS OF END-USES IN THE SRI LANKAN ENERGY SYSTEMS
DmImd Dmwdin GmwtbDdll 2007(ktgo) par IIIIIDII1 (')i)
..... . .
704.70
IDd1IIIIy 254.30 6.0
Houlldloldll 274.10 6.0
CoIIIII'ICRD 160.30 6.0
0IbDn 16.00 6.0
Oil 1276.85
IDd1IIIIy 557."3 4.0
Hou.moJds 354 ... 6 3.0
TImIpmt 354 ... 6 5.0
0IbDn 10.50 2.0
BioDIIIU 4930.00
IDd1IIIIy 1447.00 1.0
Houlldloldll 3483.00 -2.0
1) Oil Security
Oil security, in the case of Thailand is an important theme
as Thailand depends extensively on oil for transportation and
electricity generation, even though it should be noted that in
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-1Il11$3l.00 ©2012 IEEE
the recent times the dependence on oil for electricity
generation has declined. The sub-indicators in the theme of oil
security are Oil Supply Risk Indicator (OSRl), Oil Import
Intensity (011), Oil Intensity (01), Oil Share (OS) [15], and
Net Oil Import Dependence (NOID) [3], [15]. It should be
noted that OSRl is positively correlated with oil security, and
the rest of the four sub-indicators are negatively correlated
with oil security, i.e. higher values of those indicators mean
lesser oil security. The formulation and the formulae of these
indicators are extensively are found in [15].
2) Gas Security
In order to maintain consistency and comparability, the
sub-indicators proposed in [5] have been modified to mirror
the oil security indicators mentioned above. Since the use of
NG and oil in Thailand's energy system are at similar levels
the authors have formulated five sub-indicators which will be
used to measure gas security. The indicators are Gas Supply
Risk Indicator (GSRI), Gas Import Intensity (GIl), Gas
Intensity (GI), Gas Share (GS), and Net Gas Import
Dependency (NGID).
3) Sustainability
Sustainability is espoused to be a vital element in
conceptualising energy security by [8], [16] the tenets of
energy sustainability have been borrowed from [17] and [18].
The sub-indicators utilized to assess sustainability are primary
energy intensity (PEl), primary energy per capita (PECap),
diversification of fuels (DoFS), non-carbon fuel share
(NCFS), renewable fuel share (RFS), CO2 emissions intensity
(CEInt) and CO2 emissions per capita (CECap). The formulae
and the methodology associated with the sub-indicators are
extensively dealt with in [17].
III. RESULTS
The results are presented in this section under two main
subsections; namely the results for Sri Lanka and the results
for Thailand.
A. Results - Sri Lanka
The total levelized cost for Sri Lanka for all scenarios are
in Fig. 1.
LCSl
1OD77U1
102032UJ
1017720
301li090
)7151100
J2500000 37:;(10000
TIIWI.cft:II.d c.t .. 1l8 ....... Fig. I. Total levelized costs of Sri Lanka.
It can be seen that there is a clear decrease in the total
levelized cost of the energy system for the LCS scenarios in
comparison to the Reference scenario. Another fact to be
3
noted is that with the increase of the percentage of reduction,
i.e. from LCS 1 to LCS2 there is a marginal increase in the
total levelized cost, yet even in LCS4, the scenario with 40%
reduction in CO2 emissions, the total levelized cost does not
reach the cost incurred in the Reference scenario.
If one were to analyse the marginal savings as kton of CO2
emissions abatement per one US Dollar of cost saving for Sri
Lanka, from Table V, it can be seen that the trend is that the
savings progressively increase from LCS 1 to LCS4. This
implies that the reduction in CO2 emissions per unit cost of
saving increases from LCSI to LCS4. This indicates that in
the case of Sri Lanka, not only is it beneficial to implement
strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the power sector, the
more the percentage of reduction, the more reduction per unit
cost. The primary reason for this is the ready availability of
renewable sources in terms of power generation in Sri Lanka.
TABLEY MARGINAL REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE LCS SCENARIOS - SRI
LANKA
KtonofCO:! LCSt LCS2 LCS3 LCS4 mducti.oo. p ..
0.0160 C).0170 0.0188 0.0206 USD of IUlY'inp;
Next, energy security will be assessed for Sri Lanka along
the themes of oil security and sustainability.
1) Oil Security - Sri Lanka
Oil security of Sri Lanka is measured through the sub
indicators 011, 01, OS and NOID. These indicators show
considerable improvement in the four LCS scenarios, when
compared to the Reference scenario. Yet it has to be added
that OSRl remains at constant zero as Sri Lanka does not
possess oil reserves. Table VI gives the results of 011 and OS
of Sri Lanka. TABLEYI
RESULTS OF 011 AND OS FOR SRI LANKA
Oil Import Intmsity as "
� LCSI LCSl LCS3 LCS4
2007 7.63 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88
2010 727 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
2015 7.02 4.99 4.99 4.99 4.99
2020 6.56 "'.97 "'.97 "'.97 11.97
2025 6.18 4.94 4.94 4.94 4.94
2030 5.88 4.90 4.90 4.90 4.90
OilSbmlu"
2007 45.76 38.52 38.52 38.52 38.52
2010 48.01 34.54 34.54 34.54 34.54
2015 52.38 36.48 36.48 36.48 36.48
2020 50.94 38.44 38M 31M 31.48
2025 49.55 40.36 40.35 40.39 40.95
2030 48.65 42.63 43.20 43.2' 45.90
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-11111$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
From the table above it can be seen that in terms of 011,
there is considerable improvement in the LCS scenarios when
compared to the Reference scenario, but amongst the four
LCS scenarios there is no improvement. Another interesting
analysis of the results in terms of OS is that it is lowest in
LCSl, but again begins increasing from LCSI to LCS4. Both
011 and OS are negatively correlated to oil security, that is, a
higher value means lower oil security. Hence, in terms of the
Oil Share, the most beneficial scenario would be LCS1.
2) Sustainability - Sri Lanka
In terms of sustainability, PEl and PECap of Sri Lanka
show a decrease from the Reference scenario in all other LCS
scenarios, which implies that the sustainability improves as
PEl and PECap are negatively correlated with sustainability.
But amongst them the improvement in the two indices are less
significant.
The two indices NCFS and RFS also show marked
improvement in the LCS scenarios in comparison to the
Reference scenario, which is to be understood as most
renewable technologies are low carbon technologies at the
level of generation. Also, in terms of maximum renewable and
non-carbon share in the generation-mix, LCS3 is computed to
be more beneficial. TABLE VII
RESULTS OF NCFS AND RFS FOR SRI LANKA
Ncn_"
llafimu:D LCS1 LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 50.83 64.48 64.48 64.48 64.48
2010 52.01 72.A6 72.A6 72.A6 72.A6
2015 50.03 72M 72.04 72.04 72.04
2020 54.68 65.08 65.08 65.08 65.31
2025 52.95 5492 54.89 54.90 57.85
2030 41.92 5093 54.15 54..2fi 51.20
1lIS_"
RdnDce LCS1 LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 29..2fi 33.23 33.23 33.23 33.23
2010 27.63 45.59 45.59 45.59 45.59
2015 26.82 5033 5033 50.33 50.33
2020 36.13 46.53 46.53 46.53 46.81
2025 38.30 38.00 37.98 37.99 40.59
2030 30.A6 37.42 41.07 41.22 37.07
But an interesting point to be noted by the technologists
and policymakers is that the reduction of renewable energy
share as percentage from 2015 onwards. The trend across all
five scenarios suggests that unless engineers and technologists
come up with new technologies to harvest more renewable
energy more efficiently, it is going to be difficult for the
renewable energy to feature prominently in the energy mix.
This point is illustrated in Fig. 2.
4
55
�2007 -45 � �2010
; �2015
35 �2020
�202�
"'2030 2� +-----.------.-----.-----.-----.
"Refurauz lCS 1 1£82 1£&1 rcS4
Fig. 2. The values of RFS across the modeled years of Sri Lanka.
As it is to be expected, CEInt and CECap show a large
improvement in the four successive LCS scenarios when
compared to the Reference scenario.
From this it can be concluded that sustainability, oil
security and energy security in general improve significantly
with the introduction of the LCS scenarios in the power sector
of Sri Lanka.
B. Thailand
The total levelized cost of all scenarios of Thailand is given
in Fig3.
I LaK
LCI3
LCSl
LaD
.....
$.m_ nllDll
211 ClIO
�U61001 344 �
250_100 m_1OO _DIDO 325100Il10 BIOI.
Fig. 3. The total levelized cost of Thailand.
Unlike in the case of Sri Lanka, total levelized cost of
Thailand, exhibits a different trend. Whilst the LCS scenarios
have a much lower total levelized cost, the lowest amongst
them is LCS2, instead of LCS1. Once LCS2 scenario is
passed, the total levelized cost increases for LCS3 and LCS4,
nevertheless still remaining lower than the Reference scenario.
The fact that LCS2 has the lowest levelized cost might imply
that in terms of C02 emissions mitigation from the power
sector of Thailand, 20% reduction targets might be optimal.
When analyzing the marginal C02 emissions reduction per
unit of cost saving in comparison to the Reference scenario, it
can be seen that just like Sri Lanka, LCS4 is the most
beneficial in Thailand as well. (See Table VIII).
TABLE VIII MARGINAL REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE LCS SCENARlOS
THAILAND
Ktonof"Co.z LCSI LCS2 LeS3 LCS4 reduc:Iion pa-
0.0139 0_0180 0.0252 0.m39 usn of"lUIVine:
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-11111$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
1) Oil Security - Thailand
Oil security for Thailand, when measured through the five
separate sub-indicators does not show any significant
improvement, which is an interesting point that needs to be
considered by policymakers. Table IX reports the 011 and OS
of Thailand for the five scenarios.
TABLE IX
RESULTS OF OIl AND OS FOR THAILAND
ODu"
R· ..... Wial LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 1130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2010 11.24 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82
201' 10.'1 11.83 11.83 11.83 11.83
2020 11.1' 11." 11." 11." 11."
202' 11A9 11.28 11.28 11.28 11.28
2030 11.26 11.02 11.02 11.02 11.02
OSu"
RIII&acJaae LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 39.17 3931 40.28 4OA8 39.61
2010 40.25 40.1' 40.62 40.73 40.91
201' 40.20 42.13 43.12 43.23 433'
2020 40.86 41.'9 42.11 42.06 42AO
202' 4OA2 41.06 41.'1 41A8 41.7'
2030 39.66 39.69 40.84 40.85 40.71
The results show that there is no drastic improvement in
011 in the LCS scenarios, and in fact OS increases slightly in
the LCS scenarios. But this OS increase has another
contributing factor which is the gradual decrease in the overall
primary energy use. Since OS is computed as the ratio
between overall primary oil use and total primary energy use,
a decrease in primary energy will also lead to the increase in
OS and for Thailand this is the case. But still the fact that the
effect of reduction in oil use does not mask the reduction in
primary energy use is noteworthy. Another important aspect is
that across all scenarios OS is maintained along the same
values, that is, the share of oil is almost held constant and
under 45%, which augurs well for Thailand's energy system.
2) Gas Security - Thailand
Gas security of Thailand is reported in Table X. Again, the
trend of GIl and GS is quite similar to the trend exhibited by
the corresponding oil security indicators. There is a slight
improvement in the GIl indicator in the LCS scenarios in
comparison to the Reference scenario, but GS does not show
any visible improvement. Moreover there is a slight increase,
and the same explanation afforded to OS in this matter can be
extended to GS as well.
5
3) Sustainability - Thailand
In the theme of sustainability, results of NCFS and RFS are
reported in Table XI.
TABLE X
RESULTS oFGll ANDGS OF THAILAND
Gn .. "
Rcli:R:Bcc LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 3.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2010 3.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2015 5.11 5.11 3.98 4.85 5.43
2020 ti54 �'U3 5.46 ti03 6.62
2025 6.51 6.31 6.31 7.04 7.19
2030 7.06 6.96 6.101 6.84 6..84
GS .. "
� LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS1
2007 33.64 28.42 31.40 33.82 31.90
2010 32.56 27.58 25.31 27.12 2926
2015 29.98 26.99 23.5' 25.10 26.71
2020 28.15 26.32 25.39 28.01 31.00
2025 29.55 29.32 29.61 33.00 33.93
2030 31.72 31.96 32.30 32.31 3220
TABLE Xl
NCFS AND RFS RESULTS FOR THAILAND
NCFS_"
RcliRnce LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 12.52 18.13 17.06 17.08 19.43
2010 14..D4 20m 2.1.81 2.1-82 2.1-84
2015 lU3 19.D2 2123 2125 2126
2020 12.59 16A2 18.70 11.91 17.99
2025 13A6 12.75 14.93 14.97 14.72
2030 15.23 15.1-1 1-1.19 16.10 15.-15
1lFS_"
Rcli1rmGC LCSI LCS2 LCS3 LCS4
2007 9.47 1229 10.32 10.34 12.68
2010 9.32 13.93 16.84 16.85 16.87
2015 10.87 13.78 15.19 15.20 15.21
2020 8.04 11.99 13.35 13A5 12.59
2025 9Al 9.D6 10.33 10.33 10.21
2030 11.19 11.96 11.16 12A2 11.7'
These results show that both NCFS and RFS show
improvement, especially in the early years 20lO and 2015, but
in both indices LCS3 has fared the best, by scoring the highest
percentage in the energy mix in both non-carbon and
renewable categories. Another interesting point to note is that
the non-carbon share and renewable share of Thailand's
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-1Il11$3l.00 ©2012 IEEE
energy system is considerably lower than that of Sri Lanka.
One reason for this is the fact that renewable energy is highly
site specific, and Thailand does not possess the same extent of
renewable resources as that of Sri Lanka. Also, Thailand has a
very mature and developed energy system, where the part of
traditional biomass is quite limited and is on the decline. This
might be another reason for the low levels of renewable share
in the energy mix.
IV. CONCLUSION
This paper has analysed the impact of LCS measures on
energy security of two energy import dependent Asian
countries, namely Sri Lanka and Thailand. Both countries
were modeled as individual case studies using the MESSAGE
model. The results for both countries have some common
threads and some varied trends. In the Sri Lankan model,
results show that LCS scenarios have some effect on the
improvement on oil security, albeit a very small effect. The
best performing scenario in terms of oil security is LCS4. In
the case of sustainability theme of energy security, the effects
of LCS measures are significant, and the renewable share in
the energy mix has an increase of 10% from the Reference
scenario in LCS3. In terms of the marginal savings due to the
reduction in the CO2 emissions from the power sector, the
savings, that is 20.6 tC02/USD, is highest in LCS4 scenario.
In the results for the case study of Thailand, the effects of
LCS scenarios on oil security and gas security are very small.
Therein lays the difference between Sri Lanka and Thailand.
This suggests that when assessing or planning for LCS
measures and co-benefits in energy security, allowances
should be made for the differences in energy systems. Since
Thailand has a mature energy system with extensive use of oil
and gas in other end-use sectors besides the power sector,
LCS measures in the power sector do not have the same
beneficial effect. Yet, in the case of sustainability LCS
scenarios induce an improvement in the sustainability of the
energy system. In comparison to the Reference scenario, LCS
2 scenario has 1 % increase in renewable share in the energy
mix of Thailand. In terms of the marginal savings due to the
reduction in the CO2 emissions from the power sector, the
savings that is 33.9 tC02/USD is achieved in LCS4.
V. REFERENCES
[I] International Energy Agency. GlossalY of Terms. 201 I [cited 201 I 18th of June]; Available from: HYPERLINK http://www. iea.org/glossary /glossary _ E.asp.
[2] MuIIer-Kraenner, S., Energy Security: Re-Measuring the World. 2007: Earthscan. 156.
[3] APERC, A Quest for Energy Security in the 2i st Century - resources
and constraints, A.A. Aponte, Editor. 2006. [4] Bielecki, J., Energy security: is the woif at the door? The Quarterly
Review of Economics and Finance, 2002. 42(2): p. 235-250. [5] Cabalu, H., indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia. Energy
Policy, 2006. 38(1): p. 2 I 8-225. [6] Chester, L., Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its
polysemic nature. Energy Policy, 20 I O. 38(2): p. 887-895. [7] Jansen, J.e., W.G.V. Arkel, and M.G. Boots, Designing indicators of
Long term energy supply security. 2004, Netherlands Environment Assessment agency, MNP.
6
[8] Vivoda, V., Evaluating energy security in the ASia-Pacific region: A
novel methodological approach. Energy Policy, 2010. 38(9): p. 5258-5263.
[9] Low-carbon Society Vision 2030 - Thailand. 2010: Thailand. [10] King, P., Low Carbon Development Path in ASia-Pacific. 2009, Institute
for Global Environment Studies. [1 I] Gomi, K., K. Shimada, and Y. Matsuoka, A low-carbon scenario
creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto
city. Energy Policy. 38(9): p. 4783-4796. [12] Wijayatunga, P.D.e., W.J.L.S. Fernando, and R.M. Shrestha,
Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector
supply side and demand side options. Energy Conversion and Management, 2003. 44(20): p. 3247-3265.
[13] IAEA, MESSAGE User Manual. 2007, IAEA. [14] APERC, APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, D.A.F. Jr, Editor.
2006, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre: Tokyo. [15] Gupta, E., Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries. Energy
Policy, 2008. 36(3): p. 1195-1211. [16] Von Hippel, D., T. Savage, and P. Hayes, introduction to the Asian
Energy Security project: Project organization and methodologies.
Energy Pol icy. In Press, Corrected Proof. [17] IAEA, et aI., Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development:
Guidelines and Methodologies. 2004, IAEA, l EA, Eurostat: Vienna. [18] Vera, I. and L. Langlois, Energy indicators for sustainable
development. Energy, 2007. 32(6): p. 875-882.
VI. BIOGRAPHIES
Bundit Limmeechokchai was born in Thailand. He graduated from the King Mongkut's Institute of Technology; North Bangkok with First Class Honours is Mechanical Engineering. From there, he went on to read for his Masters in Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand and then went on to read for his Doctorate in engineering in the same institution as well. His research expertise includes energy technologies, energy efficiency, energy economics,
planning and policy, modeling of energy and environment systems, renewable energy, low-carbon technologies, demand-side management, integrated resource planning, and CO2 mitigation. Currently he is the Chair of the Mechanical Engineering Programme in Sirindhorn International, Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Thailand.
Sujeetha Selvakkumaran was born in Sri Lanka on the 2 I" of July, I 985. She graduated from University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, with 2nd Upper Honours in Mechanical Engineering. Currently she is reading for her Masters in Thailand. Her research interests are energy security in the developing world, energy policy and planning.
Copyright Notice: 978-1-4673-6008-1Il11$3l.00 ©2012 IEEE