IEE ELECTRONICS DIVISION: CHAIRMAN'S ADDRESS

The information society-the wonder that would be?

B.W. Manley, D.I.C., C.Eng., F.I.E.E.

Indexing terms: Information technology, Computer applications, Microprocessors

Abstract: The information revolution is promised to bring about social and economic changes rivallingthose following the industrial revolution of two centuries ago. Three factors which are the prime deter-minants of changes are the advance of technology providing the 'push'; the increasing demands of the com-mercial world generating the 'pull'; and the pressures of society which will, increasingly, modulate the speedof change. The markets for information systems are developing fast. However, there have been excessivelyoptimistic predictions about the advent of the so-called 'office of the future', which are not being realised.This has led to disappointment in some quarters. The reality is that market-application-led uses of the newinformation systems are advancing fast, whereas techno logy-driven innovations, like Prestel, have produceddisappointing results. The paper concentrates on two new system concepts which are based on close studyof applications; one relates to the office and one to the home. Each contains the key elements which willrecur progressively in all information handling systems in the future:

(a) the integration of previously separate products into a coherent system(b) the ability of one workstation to perform more than one task(c) the convergence of data processing, text and image handling, and telecommunications towards a

common course.The paper then examines some of the implications for employment in the next decade in consequence ofsystems of this kind which inevitably will pervade our society.

1 Information systems in the office

In the world today there are some 60 million workers con-cerned with the collection, collation, manipulation and trans-mission of information. It is estimated that they produceand handle some 1012 pages each year. A substantial fractionof this paper finds its way into filing cabinets. In the UnitedKingdom a recent study estimated that, in a typical organi-sation, there are twice as many filing cabinets as staff employed(Table 1).

Table 1: Office equipment in the UK

Equipment per 100 staff

AccountsMarketingProduction controlAdministrationPersonnel

Filingcabinets

6470

125657138

Telephones

5690481984

Typewriters

715161022

It is evident that the handling and storage of paper is oneof the major activities in business today.

There have been many attempts to solve this problem but,so far, none has been successful. Philips has conceivedMEGADOC, an electronic archive in which typed and hand-written documents can be stored automatically on a digitaloptical recording (DOR) disc using a laser. The DOR discis formed from two 12in-diameter glass substrates with arecording layer sealed between them onto which digitalinformation can be burned by a scanning laser. The inform-ation is recorded on a spiral path containing 35 000 tracks.The track is also divided into 64 sectors, and each sector ofeach track is given an individual segment address. In this way,any segment can be located in a random-access mode. A dischas a capacity of 1010 bits of information per side.

Paper 2129A, delivered before the IEE Electronics Division, 13thOctober 1982Mr. Manley is Managing Director of Philips Business Systems Group,1 Bell Street, Maidenhead, Berks. SL6 1BU, England

Once recorded the information can be transferred into theactual archive, a fully automatic 'juke box' containing 64DOR discs, which takes up the same floor space as a normaloffice desk. A single 'juke box' has a storage capacity ofapproximately 4.0 x 106 A4 pages. In a conventional archive,this would require a row of filing cabinets 60 m long and2.8 m high. Each stored document can be traced within10 s and reproduced on a specially designed high-resolutionscreen which displays the document in black and white.The total system consists of a minicomputer with peripheralsspecifically designed to handle documents electronically.These include:

(i) a document reader with which an A4 page can bescanned in one second

(ii) a special display screen with 2400 lines, on whichdocuments can be reproduced flicker-free

(iii) a special communication connection which makes itpossible for interconnection of MEGADOC systems via thepublic data or telephone networks

(iv) a word processor, the alphanumeric counterpart of thedocument reader.

The system is controlled by a specially-designed softwarepackage. A section of this provides an automatic registrationof all the documents in store.

The system will provide the core of office automation forthe future. Figs. 1—9 show the component technologies,principles and office application of the Philips MEGADOCsystem.

2 Information systems in the home

There have been a number of attempts in recent years toprovide interactive information systems for domestic use.Notable among these has been the Prestel service introducedby British Telecom. It is a sad fact that the ambitious planswhich were laid have not been realised. The reasons are notdifficult to discern, and need to be recognised in futureapplications of information technology in the home. Thepromise of a new initiative to provide high-bandwidth, inter-

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Fig. 3 Close up of 'holes' or 'pits' in disc substrate of Philips DORsystem

Fig. 1 Philips DOR 12 in disc

Fig. 4 Testing MEGADOC digital optical recording discs in thelaboratory

Fig. 2 Digital optical recording disc

The 'pits' in the substrate of the disc contain digitised data, graphics,text and video, coded to permit absolute accuracy in output.

active cable systems in the coming few years requires that thelessons of Prestel are learned quickly.

One of the principal shortcomings of Prestel is its relianceon the readiness of people to use a keyboard. In addition,Prestel has been hampered by the relatively small amountof information which it provides at a relatively high cost.The widespread use of computers in schools will finallyprepare the ground for keyboard-based domestic systems.Meanwhile we must find an alternative approach which doesnot frighten away the user. We have carried out a substantial

Fig. 5 Laser read/write head for Philips DOR system

amount of work to provide 'user friendly' systems whichoffer this prospect.

The CHRIS interactive display system uses a standardcolour TV display to which a variety of user interfaces canbe attached to control the system. These include touch screens,a writing tablet, keyboards, and tracker balls.

For gathering information there is a teletext input and alink to the telephone line which gives access to external

16 IEEPROC, Vol. 130, Pt. A, No. 1, JANUARY 1983

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Fig. 6 MEGADOC 'juke box' principle

Fig. 7 Schematic diagram of operation of Philips DOR read/writehead

databases. Substantial use is made of pictorial representationon the TV screen to aid selection. By means of a touch control,screen selections are made simply by touching the relevantarea.

Figs. 10 to 12 show the Philips CHRIS home informationsystem in use and examples of video output and initial dis-plays.

The approach demonstrated by CHRIS offers the op-portunity of avoiding one of the major pitfalls in the intro-duction of information systems into the home.

3 Social and employment aspects of informationtechnology

The social impact of new information-handling products andsystems is difficult to assess, and produces extreme viewsfrom management and unions, most of which are emotionallybased. There is evidence that, up to the present time, theeffects on employment have been neutral. It is certainly truethat the signs of any technological innovation are difficultto discern in a macroscopic examination of employmenttrends over the last 200 years. Most recently, the widespreadintroduction of computers has not led to any reduction inthe numbers of people employed in the related sectors ofbusiness. In fact, it is in the employment sectors which relateto information that jobs have increased, while manual andmanufacturing jobs have diminished (Tables 2 and 3). What,

IEEPROC, Vol. 130, Pt. A, No. 1, JANUARY 1983

Fig. 8 Special large-format display screen for Philips MEGADOCdigital optical recording electronic filing cabinet and archive

Fig. 9 MEGADOC system in office setting, sharing special displayscreens

Table 2: Development of employment 1970—1990

Employmentoccupation(millions)

ManagersProfessionsClerical jobsManufacturing

operatives

1971

1.92.53.6

5.7

1980

2.23.04.0

5.0

1990*(forecast)

2.33.44.1

4.1

•University of Warwick, Institute of Employment Research, Spring1982

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then, is our projection for the next decade, faced with all thetechnological wonders we have seen?

Perhaps a more significant question which will arise as aresult of new technology being introduced into the officerelates to the quality of jobs. The much greater use of com-puting capability in business could lead to the conclusionthat jobs requiring the exercise of judgment will be restrictedto senior management. This in turn would lead to a two-levelsociety composed of management and menial. This wouldseem to be a most unlikely scenario, since one of the in-evitable consequences of these technologies will be the more

Table 3: Development of employment 1961—1991

Employment bysector (millions)

AgricultureManufacturingFinancial and

business services

Total employedUnemployed

Total labour forceNonmanual jobsManual jobs

1961

1.18.6

0.7

24.00.3

24.338.5%61.5%

1971

0.78.2

1.0

24.00.7

24.741.9%58.1%

1981

0.66.2

1.3

23.12.7

25.847.6%52.4%

1991*(forecast)

0.55.8

1.5

23.63.1

26.752.2%47.8%

•University of Warwick, Institute of Employment Research, Spring1982

Fig. 11 Example of video art that can be produced on the CHRIShome information system

widespread accessibility of information. Awareness will leadto involvement and participation to a greater level than wehave seen before. In summary, the introduction of tech-nology into business will certainly not result in fewer jobs;in addition it is likely to bring about a considerable level ofjob enrichment.

It seems likely that the impact will be small in terms ofthe total numbers of jobs. Short term job losses broughtabout by productivity improvements appear generally to beoffset by the desire to make greater use of the informationcapacity which the technology brings.

Fig. 12 Examples of CHRIS home information system initial displays

The prospect of the information society is indeed an ex-citing one, provided we recognise that technology is themeans and not the end.

18 IEEPROC, Vol. 130, Pt. A, No. 1, JANUARY 1983