icr x change conference
TRANSCRIPT
®
January 13, 2014
Orlando, FL
®
Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical
facts are forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor
provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These
forward-looking statements address the Company’s plans, activities or
events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future.
A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially
from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors,
risks and uncertainties are set forth under the heading “Cautionary
Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements“ or “Risk Factors” in
"Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results
of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly
report on Form 10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are
expressly incorporated herein by reference.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking
statements, which speak only as of January 13, 2014. The Company does
not undertake to update or revise its forward-looking statements even if
experience or future changes make it clear that projected results expressed
or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be required
by law.
®
• Founder: Leon Levine
• First stored opened in
November 1959 in
Charlotte, NC
• Self-service
• Value and
convenience
®
New Jersey – 113
Denotes distribution center
Store counts as of November 30, 2013
250
144
121
169
113 155
138
579
391
36
68
41
212
51 211
284
307
61
413
76
117
158
412
18
25
32
112
1,018
43
335
475
132 225
253
29
247
Connecticut – 58
Washington DC – 3
Delaware – 23 Maryland – 102
New Hampshire – 35
Vermont – 15
Rhode Island – 28
Massachusetts – 112
98
1
8,000+ Locations in 46 States
®
Consumables Discretionary
®
68% Regularly use
coupons
31% Have kids under 18
56% Earn less than
$40K a year
50% Rely on government
assistance
44% Have a
smartphone
Source: WSL/Strategic Retail, How America Shops® MegaTrends 2012, National
Internet Survey and internal FDO data
46% Older than 55
®
Value
• Consumables and
discretionary items
• Nationally recognized
brands
• Quality, private label
merchandise
• Most items priced at
$10 or less
Convenience
• Small, easy-to-shop
stores
• Quick, fill-in trip
• Average basket
around $10
Offer Customers Great Values and a
Convenient Shopping Experience
®
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY73 FY75 FY77 FY79 FY81 FY83 FY85 FY87 FY89 FY91 FY93 FY95 FY97 FY99 FY01 FY03 FY05 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY13
(mill
ion
s)
Earnings Before Income Taxes*
OPEC Iran
Manufacturing
9/11 Housing /
Subprime
*FY06 excludes litigation charge of $45 million or $0.18 per share
*FY12 excludes litigation charge of $11.5 million or $0.06 per share
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Recessionary periods
®
• Economic pressures
facing our customers
• More promotional
environment
• Digesting significant
business changes
®
• Elevated
unemployment levels
• Higher taxes
• Reductions to key
government
assistance programs
• Healthcare
uncertainties
10
184
173
170
175
180
185
Trips per FDO Shopper
in Total Market
Source: Nielsen Homescan Data, 52 weeks ending
®
8%
-13%
12% 10% 9%
4%
19%
-4%
Drug Food Department
Stores
Mass
Circular Growth
2012 vs. 2013 November and December Combined
Pages InsertsSource: MarketTrack: Circular Volume Report
®
• 1,000 new Food
and HBA SKUs
• Tobacco
• Significant fixture
and layout
changes
• Capturing more trips
• Greater share of
wallet
• Margin pressure
• Store manager
turnover
• Shrink
• Inventory
productivity
12
®
332 362
491
364
171
105
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Mix Shift of Consumables
(basis points)
-17
-113
-145
-114
88
14
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13* 1Q14
Gross Margin Trends
(basis points)
*4Q13 excludes a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances
®
®
5.4%
6.6%
2.9% 2.9%
0.0%
-2.8%
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Comparable Store Sales
13.6%
2.0%
4.8%
-1.1%
14.7%
-1.9%
4Q12* 1Q13 2Q13* 3Q13 4Q13* 1Q14
EPS Growth
*4Q12 excludes a litigation charge of $11.5M
*2Q13 includes an extra week
*4Q13 excludes a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment
related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances
®
• Re-accelerate traffic
• Invest in key traffic-driving consumables
• Strengthen our value proposition
• Enhance marketing efforts
• Reduce costs and enhance productivity
• Invest in long-term growth while returning
capital to shareholders
®
19
39
48
115
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel – FDO Shoppers in FDO Trade Area, 52 weeks ended 11/30/13
Food
Household
Health, Beauty &
Personal Care
Tobacco
®
• Food
• Pepsi
• Grocery & cooler expansion
• McLane partnership
• Health & Beauty Aids
• Beauty
• Over-the-counter
• Personal care
• Tobacco
17 17
®
• Food
• Refresh assortment
• Redeploy space
• Realign adjacencies and product flow
• Household
• Expand space
• Leverage innovation
®
• Getting back to our roots
• Commitment to everyday
low prices and great values
• Select price investments
®
12
22 24
30
33
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Number of Circulars • Reinforce value
proposition
• Optimize
marketing tools
®
• Re-accelerate traffic
• Invest in key traffic-driving consumables
• Strengthen our value proposition
• Enhance marketing efforts
• Reduce costs and enhance productivity
• Invest in long-term growth while returning
capital to shareholders
®
70% 68%
15% 11%
11%
8%
4% 13%
FY12 FY15P
Percent of Annual Purchases*
US Domestic Importer Agent Direct
• Accelerate conversion
of replenishment
programs
• Expand international
presence
• Enhance global
logistics capabilities
• Expand into new
businesses
*Purchases at retail
®
22%
25% 25% 25%
14%
17% 17% 18%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Private Brands as a Percentage of Net Sales
Total PB Penetration
Consumables PB Penetration
• Improved quality
standards
• 20% growth in private
brand consumables
in FY13
• 500 new private
brand consumables
SKUs in FY13
®
• Simplify store operational tasks
• Improve processes
• Stabilize workforce
• Reduce inventory shrinkage
• Leverage supply chain
efficiencies
®
• Re-accelerate traffic
• Invest in key traffic-driving consumables
• Strengthen our value proposition
• Enhance marketing efforts
• Reduce costs and enhance productivity
• Invest in long-term growth while returning
capital to shareholders
®
1) Re-invest back into
business
• FY14 CapEx plan:
$450-500M
2) Support dividend
program
3) Share repurchases
• FY14 plan: $250M
$155 $212
$345 $243
$399 $73 $79
$83
$91
$108
$71
$332
$671
$192
$75
$617
$748
$821
$890 $941
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12* FY13**
(millions)
Net CapEx Dividends
Share Buyback EBITDA
Note: Net capex is capital expenditures net of sale leaseback proceeds
*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million in 4Q12
**FY13 was a 53-week year and results are adjusted for a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a
change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in 4Q13
®
• New process to ship and
deliver good to our stores
• Improves supply chain
efficiency
• Simplifies unloading and
replenishing for our Team
Members
• Plan to roll-out to four
distribution centers in FY14
®
• Create a more
consistent customer
experience
• Improve our
competitiveness
• Establish a
foundation for future
assortment
expansion
BEFORE
®
®
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14P FY15P FY16P
Nu
mb
er
of Sto
res
Traditional Concept Renewal Renovated Stores New
®
• Expanding
customer base
• Improving store
productivity
• New markets
7,916
New Store
Opportunities
Total Store
Potential End of
FY13
New Store Opportunities
19,000
®
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Gross Store Growth Net Store Growth
• Opened 500 new
stores in fiscal
2013
• Plan to open 525
new stores in fiscal
2014
®
January 13, 2014
Orlando, FL