1. Protected areas, biodiversityand climate changeJeremy Carew-ReidICEM International Centre forEnvironmental Managementjecr@icem.com.auwww.icem.com.auMekong ARCC Climate Change Impact andAdaptation Study for Natural andAgricultural Systems

2. Take an ecosystems approach in:1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poorand their environment - water resources, food security,livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife);2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientificevidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites;3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community andecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and4. Communicating the results of the vulnerabilityassessment and adaptation planning.ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management2ARCC Climate Change VulnerabilityAssessment & Adaptation StudyObjectivesmpacts and Adaptation Studyorkshopvember 2012Climate andhydrologicalchange:methods andresultsClimate ChaInterim Resu31 October ICEM International Centre forEnvironmental ManagementTarek KetelsenJorma KoponenJeremy Carew-ReidSimon TilleardMai Ky VinhTo Quang Toan 3. Climate change and LMB farming ecosystems3ICEM, 2012Climate changesHydrological changesLMB ecozones(farming ecosystems)Farming ecosystem speciesIndustrialandcommercialcropsAquaculturespeciesLivestockSubsistencecropsTraditionallandracesNTFPsCropwildspeciesWildfishWildlifeThreatImpactVulnerabilityAdaptation options and prioritiesAdaptation 4. Climate change vulnerability continuum4ICEM, 2012 5. 5Key concepts 6. Climate change shiftsRegular climate shifts1. Geographic shifts (space): latitude and longitude elevation2. Seasonal shifts (time) onset and end, variabilityExtreme events shifts3. Extreme event shifts intensity, regularity, location Micro events eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands Macro events eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclonelandfall6ICEM 2012Shifts 7. Geographicshift in climatePaddy riceandcommercialcropsShift in zone of suitabilityfor habitat and cropsOriginal extent ofnatural habitatRemainingnatural habitatpocketsSubsistence crops and NTFcollection7ICEM 2012Shifts 8. Ecological shifts due to climate change Geographic shift in species ranges Substantial range losses Seasonal shifts in life cycle events(eg. advances in flowering andfruiting, fish and bird migration) Body size changes - warmingassociated with decreased bodysize Community composition changes:Warm-adapted species incommunities increase others dieout Genetic changes (eg toleranceshifts; stress proteins)ICEM 2012 8Shifts 9. 9Purpose of zoning is to identify areas with common: climate change characteristics bio-physical characteristicsTwo types of zones:1. Ecological zones natural habitat, species and geneticresources2. Climate change zones temperature, rainfall, extremeevents, water availability and hydrologyOverlay the climate change zones on the ecozones at variouslevels of focusZones provide a common analytical framework for the studyZones 10. ICEM 2012 10EcozonesEcozones have detailed: biophysical descriptors(elevation, temperature,rainfall and landform) natural system descriptors(vegetation, soils) agricultural, livestock andfisheries profilesZones 11. Climate changezonesAreas experiencing similarclimate change1. Annual + seasonal rainfallaverages & extremes2. Annual + seasonaltemperature averages &extremes3. Specific tolerance &threshold maps (egdroughts and extremeevents)11Zones 12. HotspotsDry seasonrainfall 13. HotspotsDry seasontemperature 14. 15ICEM 2012 15. 16ICEM 2012 16. Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature17ICEM 2012Species comfort zones 17. Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitationSpecies comfort zones18ICEM 2012 18. LMB protected areasby countryNo. of PAsArea of PAs(km2)PA as % ofbasin areaAve size ofPAs (km2)No.importantwetlandsCambodia 21 3,761 6.1 179 24Lao PDR 27 3,847 6.2 143 13Thailand 45 1,824 2.9 41 39Vietnam 21 383 0.6 18 18Total 114 9,816 15.8 87 19. LMB protected areasProposedadditionsAs at 2003 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand VietnamPas as a % of land area 21% 21% 19% 8%% of national PA systemmanaged at local levels1% 100% 2% 94%Forests in existing andproposed PAs as a % oftotal forest area40% 39% 65% 26%Cambodia 2010 hectaresCommunityforests 430 1380,978Communityprotectedareas 84 93,000Fisheriescommunityconservationareas469 683,734 20. CountryNo. importantwetlandsCambodia 24Laos 13Thailand 39Vietnam 18Total 94Important LMBwetlands 21. Ranking by % average temperatureChange in wet seasonPA name Country1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam2. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam3. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam4. Lomphat WS Cambodia5. Chu Prong Vietnam6. Dong Ampham Laos7. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia8. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia9. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia10. Ta Dung Vietnam11. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia12. SNUOL WS Cambodia13. Mom Ray Vietnam14. Nam Nung Vietnam15. Phu Luang Laos16. Phou Kateup Laos17. Xe Sap Laos18. Phou Kathong Laos19. Xe Khampho Laos20. Yok Don VietnamRanking by % average temperatureChange in dry seasonPA name Country1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam2. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia3. SNUOL WS Cambodia4. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam5. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia6. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam7. Nam Nung Vietnam8. Ta Dung Vietnam9. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia10. Lomphat WS Cambodia11. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia12. Phu Luang Laos13. Muong Phang Vietnam14. Nam Ca Vietnam15. Phou Kateup Laos16. Dong Ampham Laos17. Yok Don Vietnam18. Xe Khampho Laos19. Phou Kathong Laos20. Tinh Doi VietnamHot spot ranking: 20 top PAs by % average temperature change 22. Mondulkiri PA cluster 23. 010203040506015 20 25 30 35 40 45DaysofoccurenceperyearDailymaximum temperature (Deg C)Baseline ClimatechangeTemperaturesbelow 20 C willnot occurTemperaturesbetween 20 29 Cwill occur less oftenTemperatures between 29 44C will occur more oftenTemperatures above 44 C will start occurringMean of maximumtemperatures will increasefrom 27 30 C102030405060DaysofoccurenceperyearBaseline ClimatechangeMondulkiri - average daily maximum temperature shift 24. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITYASSESSMENT IN MONDULKIRIPROTECTED AREA CLUSTER 25. 31Multiplier ImpactsProductionPovertyFood securitySector growthEcosystemservices/products 26. THREAT IMPACTAdaptivecapacityVulnerabilityChange andshift inregularclimateWritten description of the threat1ExposureSensitivityImpactWritten explanation of what the impact is and reasons for scoreTemperature (i) Annual average max temp increases by3 to 4 degrees (the new min increases tothe old average) (1)(ii) From April to May (end dry season) maxtemp increases by 17% (2)(iii) Early in wet season (June to Sept maxtemp increases by 16-18.5% (2)(iv) 40% more days exceeding 30degrees(shift from 20% to 60%) (3)(v) 27% more days exceeding 32 degrees(shift from 10 to 37%) (3)(vi) Areas experiencing increase in extremetemps from 42 to 45degrees (3)(vii) During wet season max temp comfortzone is exceeding by up to 3 degreesevery month (outside comfort zone100%) (4)(viii) During dry season max temp comfortzone is exceeded by 60% (5)(ix) From April for 9 months in successionthe area is 100% outside the comfortzone (5)(x) Annual average min temp will increaseby 2degrees (7)(xi) Dry season variation increases from12.5deg to 15deg but with min and maxH2,3VH4VH Provisioning services Higher temps, especially during the dry season will increase ET and reducewater availability for agriculture and domestic uses Some important species such as the resin trees and Cardamom are sensitive tothe projected high temp increases and populations would be reducedespecially in already degraded habitats Bamboo is the main construction material it is resilient to extreme temps so unlikely to be affected creating conditions for a successional change inecosystems in disturbed areas and causing loss in biodiversity. Potential forshift to climax bamboo grasslands in some areas.Regulating services Higher temps during the dry season would cause drier soil surface layersleading to potential increases in erosion and soil loss especially in degradedareas Temp induced drier conditions on the forest floor could reduce natural waterfiltering and regulation functions If surface litter is drier there is potential for losses in soil nutrient runoff andenrichment in surrounding areas We can expect some species and habitats to be lost from the system reducingbiodiversity and population sizes If temp increases induces biodiversity loss and forest ecosystem shifts ordegradation, regulatory services will be reduced The impact on regulating services will be felt especially in the multiple useVL5VHMondulkiri protected area cluster - climate change impact andvulnerability assessment matrix1. Provisioning services2. Regulating services3. Habitat services4. Cultural services 27. Ecosystem comfort zone: Therange of precipitation ortemperature that wasexperienced during 50% ofthe baseline around themean.ICEM 2012 33Ecosystem comfort zonesMondulkiri midelevation drybroadleaf forest1520253035404550BaselineWet Season(Jun-Nov)CCWet Season(Jun-Nov)BaselineDry Season(Dec- May)CCDry Season(Dec - May)Dailymaximumtemperature(DegC)Figure5C. Z.C. Z. 28. Threat ImpactAdaptivecapacityVulnerabilityChange and shift in regular climateExposure Sensitivity Impact1. Temperature H VH VH VL VH2. Precipitation VH H VH M VH3. WateravailabilityH VH VH VL VHChange and shift in events4. Drought H VH VH VL VH5. Flooding H H H VL VH6. Flash floods VH VH H VL VH7. Storms H H H L HMondulkiri PA cluster impact and vulnerabilityassessment 29. Ecological shifts in the Mondulkiri PA cluster: Extreme temperatures coupled with drying leadingto an accelerated loss of populations & species Key habitats reduced or lost eg drying ofTrapaengs (wetlands) during the dry season New problem species entering communities Reorganisation of plant and animal communities Geographic range shifts eastward and someupwards (?) and range lossesA transformation of Mondulkiri PA cluster ecosystemsis projectedICEM 2012 35 30. Mondulkiri protected area cluster - Trapaengs 31. 37Drying out of trapaengs and other wetlands during the dryseason 32. Wild mushroom : Russula virescensHabitats : lower partof trees near groundof deciduous, drydipterocarp forests,marshes, swampsFruiting : June-Oct.peak at the end ofrainy seasonTemperature range :30-38C80-90% air humidityRainfall : 1,350mm/yrClimate key threats Future average temperature range 27 37 C is still within the optimalrange during fruiting period Future maximum temperature 44 Cis beyond the comfort zone, but mayenhance the decay of leaf litter whichbecome nutrients facilitating growth Reduced dry season rainfall and soilmoisture may affect sub-soil parts Increase of total rainfall in wet seasonenhances availability & abundance Increased forest fires and loss ofassociated tree species and habitatsBaseline vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate) Climate change vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)Prediction: Climate change is unlikely to increase the overall vulnerability 33. Rattans : Calamus caesius Perennial, long life, multi-stems, clustering, in lowlands on alluvial flats,riverbanks, moist evergreen, dry evergreen, peatswamp forests, also at driersites Alluvial soils up to 800 m asl New shoots germinate all year round; Fruiting : November-March Temperature range : optimal 23-30C; absolute 16 34C Rainfall range : optimal 2,500-3,200 mm/yr; absolute 1,700-4,200 mm/yr Used for handicrafts, shoots used for food Cultivation possibleClimate key threats Increase in total rainfall enhances growth Future maximum temperature 44 C is beyond the comfort zone Decrease of dry season rainfall may affect growth and fruiting Possible increase in forest fires which destroy seedlings High adaptive capacity due to drought tolerance of extensive root systemBaseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)Prediction: Climate change unlikely to increase vulnerability 34. Resin Tree : Dipterocarpus alatus Habitats : along riverbanks, bottom of ridges, swampy areas in drydipterocarp, dry evergreen, lower moist evergreen, semi-evergreen,evergreen forests Flowering : March-May, Fruiting : April-June Resin collection : only in summer (April-May) Elevation range : 100-800 m asl Temperature range : optimal 22-32C, absolute 10-36C, can grow in areaswith max temperature up to 45 C Rainfall range : optimal rainfall 3,500-4,500 mm/yr, absolute 3,000-5,200mm/yr, found in areas 1,000-2,000 mm/yrBaseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.5 (High Vulnerable)Prediction: Climate change will significantly increase the vulnerabilityClimate key threats increase in temperature enhances forest fire; forest fires kill seedlings and lowervolume and quality of resin/oil extreme events (storms and high winds) kill seedlings and affect the trees which areimproperly tapped and hole maintained extreme droughts enhance insect attacks (longhorn beetles) and also lower seedgermination rate 35. NTFP collection - loss ofresin trees 36. Jeremy Carew-ReidDirectorICEM International Centre for EnvironmentalManagementjecr@icem.com.auwww.icem.com.au; www.mekong-protected-areas.org