ibbl 2012

14
Analysts: Farjad Siddiqui [email protected] Sajid Huq [email protected] Enduring Remittance Market Share & Loan-Deposit Spread to Drive Record Earnings Growth We forecast YoY IBBL’s 2011 Loan & Advance (L&A) growth rate (GR) of 18% and deposits GR of 23% . We further expect 2011-LDR of 88%, lower than 2010-level of 90%. LDR is expected to fall owing to 2011E multi-year high deposits GR driven by a slowing stock market as well as significant M2 GR contraction. We anticipate 2011 net interest income (NII) GR of 29.6%, NIM of 4.54%, and loan-deposit rate spread of 5.07%. IBBL also has the largest trade finance and remittance operations in the industry, and thus high 2011E non-NII GR. We estimate 2011 commission & fees income GR of 37% YoY, sharp rise from 2010 GR of 16% YoY, and 4-year average of 13% YoY. Its industrial clients are Bangladesh’s largest business groups. IBBL’s pricing power and the non -significant correlation between income GR and Inflation rate are borne out by regression analysis (please see enclosed report). We anticipate IBBL will avoid portfolio losses otherwise expected to cut 2011 earnings of domestic banks. In 2010, it had a minimal market exposure of 0.62% of deposits. This is 6.51 times lower than 4.05% average exposure of the next 7 banks by end-2010 aggregate L&A. Further, Bangladesh’s 2011E remittance GR of 10% (our internal estimates) will lead to IBBL’s FX gains GR of 40% YoY, as it manages 28% of the country’s annual inflow. Last but not least, worth noting that IBBL has lower P/E ratio and higher ROE than leading banks in other frontier markets (e.g., Sri Lanka, and Oman). Comparative price multiples and trading liquidity are illustrated in enclosed report for select frontier market banks via scatter plot. Rating: We estimate EPS of BDT 7.70 and BVPS of BDT 34.60 for the year ending December 2012, and set a target price of BDT 69.00 per share with an OUTPERFORM rating. This implies a 30.00% price return on current share price of BDT 52.60 (as on 8th January 2012). High deposit collection, loan-deposit rate spread, nominal 2010 stock market exposure, and market leadership in trade and remittance operations will cumulatively drive EPS growth. Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd DSE: ISLAMIBANK Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD Rating: Outperform Dec-2012 Fair Value Estimate: BDT 69 per share January 9, 2012 Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research Price performance of IBBL in last 12 months Sources: Dhaka Stock Exchange Revenue BDT MM 2010 2011E 2012E Net Interest Income 10,293 13,343 16,199 Investment Income 405 548 579 Commissions etc 3,997 5,485 6,886 Other income 929 959 1,353 Total revenue 15,624 20,335 25,017 Margin and efficiency (%) 2010 2011E 2012E Operating efficiency 39% 36% 36% Loan/Deposit 90% 88% 88% ROE 20% 23% 24% ROA 1% 2% 2% Other Key Indicators (%) 2010 2011E 2012E Loan-Dep Rate Spread % 4.7% 5.1% 5.1% Net Interest Margin (%) 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% Cost-to-Income 39.0% 36.3% 36.0% NPL 1.8% 1.6% Company Summary Ticker ISLAMIBANK Sector Bank Date of Incorporation 13-Mar-83 Date of Listing 1985 Financial Year End December Number of Shares (mn) 1000 Current Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 53.3 DSE Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 2,632.3 % of DSE Market Capitalization 2.0% 52 Week High (BDT) 78.8 52 Week Low (BDT) 50.5 YTD Return (%) -3.5% Trailing EPS (BDT) 4.4 Trailing P/E ratio (x) 8.8 .0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 Turnover (Million BDT) Price (BDT)

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Page 1: IBBL 2012

Analysts: Farjad Siddiqui

[email protected] Sajid Huq

[email protected]

Enduring Remittance Market Share & Loan-Deposit Spread to Drive

Record Earnings Growth

We forecast YoY IBBL’s 2011 Loan & Advance (L&A) growth rate (GR)

of 18% and deposits GR of 23% . We further expect 2011-LDR of 88%,

lower than 2010-level of 90%. LDR is expected to fall owing to 2011E

multi-year high deposits GR driven by a slowing stock market as well as

significant M2 GR contraction. We anticipate 2011 net interest income

(NII) GR of 29.6%, NIM of 4.54%, and loan-deposit rate spread of 5.07%.

IBBL also has the largest trade finance and remittance operations in the

industry, and thus high 2011E non-NII GR. We estimate 2011

commission & fees income GR of 37% YoY, sharp rise from 2010 GR of

16% YoY, and 4-year average of 13% YoY. Its industrial clients are

Bangladesh’s largest business groups. IBBL’s pricing power and the non

-significant correlation between income GR and Inflation rate are borne

out by regression analysis (please see enclosed report).

We anticipate IBBL will avoid portfolio losses otherwise expected to cut

2011 earnings of domestic banks. In 2010, it had a minimal market

exposure of 0.62% of deposits. This is 6.51 times lower than 4.05%

average exposure of the next 7 banks by end-2010 aggregate L&A.

Further, Bangladesh’s 2011E remittance GR of 10% (our internal

estimates) will lead to IBBL’s FX gains GR of 40% YoY, as it manages

28% of the country’s annual inflow.

Last but not least, worth noting that IBBL has lower P/E ratio and higher

ROE than leading banks in other frontier markets (e.g., Sri Lanka, and

Oman). Comparative price multiples and trading liquidity are illustrated in

enclosed report for select frontier market banks via scatter plot.

Rating: We estimate EPS of BDT 7.70 and BVPS of BDT 34.60 for the

year ending December 2012, and set a target price of BDT 69.00 per

share with an OUTPERFORM rating. This implies a 30.00% price return

on current share price of BDT 52.60 (as on 8th January 2012). High

deposit collection, loan-deposit rate spread, nominal 2010 stock market

exposure, and market leadership in trade and remittance operations will

cumulatively drive EPS growth.

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd DSE: ISLAMIBANK Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD

Rating: Outperform Dec-2012 Fair Value Estimate: BDT 69 per share

January 9, 2012

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Price performance of IBBL in last 12 months

Sources: Dhaka Stock Exchange

Revenue BDT MM 2010 2011E 2012E

Net Interest Income 10,293 13,343 16,199

Investment Income 405 548 579

Commissions etc 3,997 5,485 6,886

Other income 929 959 1,353

Total revenue 15,624 20,335 25,017

Margin and efficiency (%) 2010 2011E 2012E

Operating efficiency 39% 36% 36%

Loan/Deposit 90% 88% 88%

ROE 20% 23% 24%

ROA 1% 2% 2%

Other Key Indicators (%) 2010 2011E 2012E

Loan-Dep Rate Spread % 4.7% 5.1% 5.1%

Net Interest Margin (%) 4.2% 4.5% 4.5%

Cost-to-Income 39.0% 36.3% 36.0%

NPL 1.8% 1.6%

Company Summary

Ticker ISLAMIBANK

Sector Bank

Date of Incorporation 13-Mar-83

Date of Listing 1985

Financial Year End December

Number of Shares (mn) 1000

Current Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 53.3

DSE Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 2,632.3

% of DSE Market Capitalization 2.0%

52 Week High (BDT) 78.8

52 Week Low (BDT) 50.5

YTD Return (%) -3.5%

Trailing EPS (BDT) 4.4

Trailing P/E ratio (x) 8.8

.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

Turnover (Million BDT) Price (BDT)

Page 2: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

2

Growth in Loans and Advances (L&A): We estimate 2011 L&A growth of 21% YoY, lower than 2010 L&A GR of 22%

YoY, and 4-year L&A CAGR of 23%, on 2H11 M2 GR of -5.2% (21.3% to

19.6% June-Nov11) driven by inflationary pressures and FX depreciation. BB

raised repo rates multiple times and allowed large loans very selectively.

Mandate to domestic private banks is to enable large loans to agriculture, SME,

and export-oriented sectors, but restrict them in case of capital markets, real

estate, and retail sectors.

M2 GR fell in March-Sep11 nearing BB’s FY12 year-end target of 18%. We

anticipate an M2 GR lower than BB-target, as BB tries to mitigate the

inflationary effect of a BoP deficit and FX depreciation. Government borrowing

is likely to drop in 1H12 with its impact becoming clearer in 2H12—on upward

revision of energy prices.

Deposit growth and loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR):

We project 2011-deposit GR of 23% YoY, compared to 2010 GR of 19.5%

YoY, and 4-year average of 21.87% YoY. Deposit GR was higher on low stock

market liquidity and retail investor confidence as well as high bank deposit rates

and declining savings certificate sales.

Figure 1: IBBL L&A Growth

Figure 2: IBBL L&A Composition

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Sources: Company Annual Report (As on 2010)

28%24%

19%22% 21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

L&

A G

R (Y

oY

)

L&

A (B

DT

MM

)

L&A (BDT MM) L&A GR (YOY)

Industrial43%

Commercial

18%

Real Estate

4%

Agro5%

Trnsport2%

SME28%

Page 3: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

3

Further, our projection for 2011 assumes 88% gross LDR, slightly lower than

2010 LDR of 90%. IBBL’s projected LDR performance is noteworthy in light of

multi-year high deposit GR and contractionary monetary policy.

Net Interest Income (NII) We project 2011 loan-deposit spread to be 5.1%, higher than the 4-year

average of 4.83%. Net Interest Margin (NIM) is projected at 4.54% compared to

a 4-year average of 4.21% and 2010 NIM of 4.19%. NIM grew on higher deposit

GR and high loan-deposit spread. Deposit rate increments can thus be passed

on to borrowers. IBBL’s institutional-clients-dominated portfolio enables easier

re-pricing of outstanding loans. Given above L&A and deposit GR-we project

2011 NII GR of 29.6% YoY—higher than 2010 NII GR of 24.11% YoY, and 4-

year CAGR of 24.81%

Figure 3: IBBL Deposits Composition and GR

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 4: IBBL Loan-Deposit Ratio (LDR)

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

26%

20%22%

20%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Dep

osit

s G

R

Dep

osit

s (B

DT

MM

)Mudaraba Savings Mudaraba Term

Other Mudaraba Current A/C & Others

Deposits GR

87%

90%

88%

90%

88%

85.5%

86.5%

87.5%

88.5%

89.5%

90.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

LD

R

LDR

Page 4: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

4

Loan-deposit spreads over 5 years show positive correlation with Inflation rates

(annual average). This is a strong signal of IBBL’s pricing power and the low

susceptibility of their spread income to inflationary pressures. As discussed

above, IBBL can pass on higher inflationary costs to its borrowers.

Given strong NIM in a particularly difficult year for banks—IBBL’s core earnings

driver is clearly its enduring loan-deposit spread and deposit GR. Spread

income contributed 66% to 2010 operating income. In fact, we think that over

times, NIMs will endure longer for Shariah-compliant banking than for

conventional commercial banks.

Figure 5: IBBL Net Interest Income & NIM

Figure 6: IBBL Loan-Deposit Spread, NIM and Inflation

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

3.60%

3.70%

3.80%

3.90%

4.00%

4.10%

4.20%

4.30%

4.40%

4.50%

4.60%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

NIM

(%

)

Net In

tere

st In

co

me (B

DT

MM

)

Net Interest Income (BDT MM) NIM (%)

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Avg

Infl

ati

on

Rate

Lo

an

-Dep

osit S

pre

ad

& N

IM

Loan-Deposit Spread NIM Average Inflation Rate

Page 5: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

5

Non-Interest Income Non-interest income constitutes 32.17% of IBBL’s 2011E Total Operating

Income. As per 4-year average, its proportion was 35.72% of Total Operating

Income, with investment income at 2.56% and commissions & fees income at

27.00%.

Figure 7: IBBL Operating Earnings Composition

Source: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 8: Comparative Analysis of Operating Income Composition

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

52%62% 61% 67% 66% 66%

41%31% 28%

28% 26% 27%

2% 3%3%

1% 3% 3%

5% 3%8% 4% 6% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011EC

om

po

sit

ion o

f O

pera

ting

Incom

e

Net Interest Income Commission & Fees

Investment Income Other Income

36% 40%29%

43%35%

68%

32% 24% 42%24% 38%

1%

26%

18%

23% 28%22% 28%

6%18%

6% 6% 5% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Prime Bank National Bank Southeast Bank

Eastern Bank NCC Bank Islami Bank Bangladesh

Net interest Income Investment Income Fee Income Other Income

Page 6: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

6

Strong Performance in Commission & Fees Income IBBL has the largest trade finance and remittance operations in the sector. We estimate 2011 commission and fees income GR at 37% YoY, compared to 16% YoY in 2010 and 4-year average of 13%. Trade finance is expected to grow 35% YoY, exchange gain 40% YoY, and ATM operations by 50%. Commission income and exchange gains are driven by import, export, and

remittance GR which we estimate will grow at 40%, 22%, and 10% respectively

by FY12-end.

.

However, we expect 2H11 RMG export GR to slightly decelerate on US and

Eurozone economic slowdown (accentuated by high base in 2010 which saw

40% GR YoY). IBBL’s large RMG exposure (42.30% industrial loans on

31Dec11) is 16.27% expected to translate in downward pressure in fees &

commission income. That said these are large RMG clients with the advantage

Figure 10: IBBL Commission & Fees Income Growth

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 9: IBBL Non-Interest Income Composition

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

5%

29%

3%

16%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

GR

(Y

oY

)

Co

mm

issio

n &

Fees In

co

me (B

DT

M

M)

Commission & Fees Income (BDT MM) GR (YOY)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

BD

T M

M

Commission Income Exchange Gain Investment Income Other Income

Page 7: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

7

of economies of scale. They can take cut on margins and still be competitive vis-à-vis smaller players. The bank’s remittance flow grew at a compound rate of 34% over the last 4

years. We estimate 12% growth in remittance flow YoY in 2011. Its primary

remittance-generating markets—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—are politically

stable. In fact, 50% of IBBL’s remittance is channeled from the KSA in alliance

with Al-Rajhi Bank, a leading Saudi financial institution. IBBL supplies the

highest FX to the local market, owing to its substantial dollar inflow from

remittance operations. It is expected to profit BDT2470 million from FX gains in

2011.

Meager impact of Government borrowing As a Shariah-compliant non-PD, IBBL is not expected to be substantially

affected by recent government borrowing. Higher government borrowing (BDT

69.3 billion in July-Sept11, a 23x rise YoY) is not expected to directly affect

IBBL’s 2011 treasury investment portfolio. However, increased Statutory

Liquidity Reserve (SLR) requirements since December 2010 are expected to

raise IBBL’s treasury investments by 25% in 2011 compared to 4-year

compounded GR of 15.75%. We project 4.35% investment yield for 2011 and

investment income GR of 23.50% YoY.

Figure 11: Portfolio Investments as % of Deposits (2010)

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 12: IBBL Investment Income

3.6%

2.3%

8.9%

1.6%

5.3% 5.2%

0.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

AB Bank Prime Bank National Bank

Southeast Bank

Eastern Bank City Islami Bank Bangladesh

Po

rtfo

lio

Investm

en

t as %

of D

ep

osit

107%

44%

-72%

326%

24%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

GR

(Y

oY

)

Investm

en

t In

co

me (B

DT M

M)

Investment Income (BDT MM) GR (YOY)

Page 8: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

8

Lower cost-to-income ratio in comparison to historical average

Cost-to-income ratio was 31.25% up to 9M11, lower than 4-year average of

38% and 39% in 2010, on improved employee productivity and business

restructuring. We expect 2011 cost-to-income to be 32%. IBBL’s IT-driven

automation expected to lead to significant overhead cost savings.

.

Persistent growth in EPS in spite of macro shocks The year 2011 has been severe on the bank sector. High inflation and

government borrowing cut spread income whereas a 44%-market correction

eroded portfolio gains from 2010 DGEN appreciation of near-94%. We expect

EPS stream and GR to be as follows.

Figure 13: IBBL Operating Efficiency

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

1.7%

1.7%

1.8%

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Co

st-

to-A

ssets

(%

)

Co

st-

to-I

nco

me (%

)

Cost-to-Income (%) Cost-to-Assets (%)

1.43

2.67

3.40

4.43

6.05

2%

87%

27% 30%37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

GR

(Y

oY

)

EP

S (B

DT

)

EPS (BDT) GR (YoY)

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 14: IBBL EPS Trend

Page 9: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

9

financing GR, high NII GR, lower costs, and steady remittance flows. FX gains

should also be at historical high levels as discussed in earlier sections. We

project 2011 EPS to be BDT6.00, against BDT4.39 in 2010, 36% higher YoY.

EPS 4-Year average GR is 29.14% as of Dec10. EPS grew 32% YoY in 9M11.

Inflation and IBBL’s profit growth EPS growth YoY averaged 29% in 2007-2010. Inflation and net profit growth

rates exhibit very weak correlation. Below graph depicts higher net profit YoY

growth rate despite rising average inflation rate. Below graphs indicate Inflation

to NII GR correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.51. This is unexpected since negative

correlation is more common between Inflation and NII GR. Therefore, graph

below is testimony to IBBL’s considerable pricing power. Meanwhile, inflation to

non-interest income CC is -0.07, which though negative is quite low. We

conclude that IBBL’s profitability is more or less immune to inflationary

pressures.

Figure 16: Inflation and IBBL Net Profit Growth Rate

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 15: Correlation Between IBBL Income Components & Inflation

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-20%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

GR

in In

co

mes (%

)

Avera

ge In

flati

on

Rate

Average Inflation Rate GR in Net Interest Income

GR in Non Interest Income

24.5%

2.0%

87.3%

27.2% 30.1%36.6%

7.2%

9.9%

6.7%7.3%

8.8%

10.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Avg

In

flati

on

Rate

Net P

rofi

t G

R

Net Profit GR (YOY) Average Inflation Rate

Page 10: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

10

Comfortable capital adequacy ratio (CAR)

Given that IBBL has been maintaining CAR above regulatory requirement since

2005, we expect the trend to continue. The minimum CAR prescribed by the

Bangladesh Bank is 5% for Tier-I and 10% for total capital. IBBL exceeded

these minimum ratio thresholds with a Tier-I capital ratio of 7.23% and total

capital ratio of 11.06% in 2010. We expect that total CAR will remain around

11.25% in 2011 with Tier-I capital ratio of 8.00%.

Relatively minor improvement in asset quality

We expect 2011 NPL ratio to improve to 1.60% in 2011, lower than 1.77% in

2010 (which was a sharp drop from 2.36% in 2009).

6.54% 6.50% 7.23% 7.23% 8.00%

4.64% 4.22%3.83% 3.83%

3.25%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Tie

r-I &

Tie

r-II C

ap

ital

Tier-I Tier-II

Figure 17: IBBL Regulatory Capital Decomposition

Sources: Company Annual Reports

Asset Quality 2009 2010

NPLs to total loans and advances 2.39% 2.36%

Provision for classified loans,MM 1134.88 125.41

Table 2: Asset Quality

2.93%

2.39% 2.36%

1.77%1.60%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Gro

ss N

PL

Rati

o

Gross NPL Ratio

Figure 18: IBBL Gross NPL Ratio

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Page 11: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

11

Increasing return: ROE and ROA are both increasing We project ROE and ROA for 2011 to be 24.44% and 1.76%, respectively, up

from 20.56% and 1.47% in 2010. Higher profitability ratios are driven by high

earnings growth and ROA by enduring loan-deposit spread.

IBBL in comparison to leading frontier market banks

A quick look at the some of the largest listed banks in frontier markets such as

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Oman indicates how IBBL fares in relation to

its frontier market peers.

With regards to profitability ratios IBBL outperforms most of the leading banks in

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Oman and Romania. Among the 7 tabulated above, IBBL

is carrying the median P/E ratio. Considering its ROE (highest among the above

banks) and ROA, undoubtedly IBBL has further scope to appreciate in market.

13.5%

21.2%19.9% 20.3%

22.8%

0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

RO

E &

RO

A

ROE ROA

Figure 18: ROA and ROE trend

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Frontier Market Banks Country MCAP

P/E P/B ROE ROA (USD

mn)

Bangla-desh 358.5 8.8x 1.9x 20.70% 1.70%

Islami Bank Bangladesh

Habib Bank Pakistan 1,317.10 7.1x 1.3x 19.20% 1.90%

National Bank of Pakistan Pakistan 822.60 4.1x 0.6x 14.60% 1.90%

Commercial Bank of Ceylon Sri Lanka 711.7 14.1x 2.2x 18% 2%

Banca Transilvania Romania 465.4 10.9x 0.8x 13.10% 1.20%

Bank Muscat Oman 3,037.20 10.1x 1.4x 12.60% 1.60%

Access Bank Nigeria 536.30 7.9x 0.5x 7.30% 1.60%

Table 3: Frontier market banks

Sources: CapitalIQ, Bloomberg, BRAC EPL Research

Page 12: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

12

Rating Our rating considered 2012E EPS and BVPS, 2012-outlook for the banking

sector and other related factors. Considering the estimated EPS of BDT 7.70

and BVPS of BDT 34.60 for 2012, we estimate a fair value of BDT 69.00 per

share with an OUTPERFORM rating. This fair value implies a 9.0x potential P/E

and 2.00x potential P/B of the company’s Stock and 30.0% price gain over next

12 months investment horizon.

Islami Bank (Bangladesh)

Habib Bank (Pakistan)Comm. Bank

of Ceylon (Sri

Lanka)NBP

(Pakistan)

Banca Transilvania

(Romania)

Bank Muscat (Oman)

Access Bank (Nigeria)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%

RO

E (%

)

ROA (%)

Figure 18: ROA and ROE trend

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Page 13: IBBL 2012

Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (DSE: ISLAMIBANK; Bloomberg: ISLAMI:BD)

13

Balance Sheet, MM BDT 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Property & Assets:

Cash 31,330 37,486 39,053 49,250 52,649 66,686

Balance with Other Banks & F.I 2,043 834 7,115 10,672 13,340 15,341

Money at call

Investment 7,533 11,161 13,471 17,194 18,986 20,884

Loan & Advance 180,054 214,616 261,725 308,836 379,868 463,439

Fixed Assets 4,407 6,512 6,757 7,298 7,881 8,512

Other Assets 1,932 874 2,664 3,196 3,836 4,603

Total Assets 230,879 278,327 330,784 396,445 476,559 579,465

Liabilities & Equities:

Liabilities:

Borrowing from other banks and F.I 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Deposits 200,343 244,292 291,937 350,325 423,893 517,150

Mudaraba Perpetual Bond 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

Other Liability 13,475 10,929 12,330 14,180 16,307 18,753

Total Liabilities 216,819 258,221 307,268 367,505 443,200 538,903

Shareholder's Equity: 14,060 20,106 23,516 28,941 33,359 40,563

Total Liabilities & Equities 230,879 278,327 330,784 396,445 476,559 579,465

Income Statement, MM BDT 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Interest/Investment Income 19,944 21,371 24,765 31,968 38,651 45,269 Interest/profit paid on deposit and borrowing etc 12,162 13,077 14,472 18,626 22,452 25,879

Net Interest Income 7,782 8,294 10,293 13,343 16,199 19,390 Income from investments in securities/Shares 409 115 405 548 579 455

Commission, Exchange & Brokerage 3,337 3,437 3,997 5,485 6,886 8,390

Other Income 940 480 929 959 1,353 1,471

Total Operating Income 12,467 12,326 15,624 20,335 25,017 29,706

Operating Expense 4,115 4,545 6,107 7,382 9,006 10,100

Profit Before Provision 8,352 7,781 9,517 12,953 16,011 19,606

Provision 1,604 1,263 1,114 1,402 1,464 2,131

Pre-Tax Profit 6,348 6,518 8,403 11,552 14,546 17,474

Tax 3,672 3,113 4,005 5,545 6,910 8,300

Profit After Tax 2,676 3,405 4,398 6,007 7,637 9,174

GR of Key Financial Indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Loan & Advances GR 24.24% 19.20% 21.95% 21.00% 23.00% 22.00%

Deposit GR 20.45% 21.94% 19.50% 23.00% 23.00% 22.00%

Net Interest Income GR 43.01% 12.35% 24.11% 31.37% 21.26% 18.57%

Operating Income GR 45.59% 2.14% 27.02% 31.49% 23.04% 18.04%

Net Profit GR 87.35% 27.21% 30.12% 36.59% 27.05% 19.34%

Page 14: IBBL 2012

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Analyst Certification: Each research analyst and research associate who authored this document and whose name appears herein certifies that the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed therein that are within the coverage universe. Disclaimer: Estimates and projections herein are our own and are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable. Information presented herein, while obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, is not guaranteed either as to accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any security. As it acts for public companies from time to time, BRAC-EPL may have a relationship with the above mentioned company(s). This report is intended for distribution in only those jurisdictions in which BRAC-EPL is registered and any distribution outside those jurisdictions is strictly prohibited. Compensation of Analysts: The compensation of research analysts is intended to reflect the value of the services they provide to the clients of BRAC-EPL. As with most other employees, the compensation of research analysts is impacted by the overall profitability of the firm, which may include revenues from corporate finance activities of the firm's Corporate Finance department. However, Research analysts' compensation is not directly related to specific corporate finance transaction. General Risk Factors: BRAC-EPL will conduct a comprehensive risk assessment for each company under coverage at the time of initiating research coverage and also revisit this assessment when subsequent update reports are published or material company events occur. Following are some general risks that can impact future operational and financial performance: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies alter the prospective valuation; or (4) Interest rates, currency or major segments of the economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects.

BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Capital Markets Group

Sajid Huq Amit Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 01755 541 254

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BRAC EPL Research www.bracepl.com 121/B Gulshan Avenue Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212 Tel: +88 02 881 9421-5 Fax: +88 02 881 9426 E-Mail: [email protected]

Beximco Pharmaceuticals (DSE: BXPHARMA; Bloomberg: BXPHAR:BD)

Institutional Sales and Trading

Delwar Hussain (Del) Head of Institutional Sales and Trading

[email protected] 01755 541 252