i-tracâ„¢ report

I-TRaC™ REPORT

City of Sampleville • 2011 Q2

WWW.PARCELQUEST.COM

I-TRaC™ REPORT

Prepared For The City of Sampleville • 2011 Q2

ParcelQuest2330 East Bidwell St. Suite 200Folsom, California 95630Phone: (888) 217-8999Fax: (916) [email protected]

The content of this report is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. ©ParcelQuest 2011

WWW.PARCELQUEST.COM

I-TRaC™ REPORT • City of Sampleville • 2011 Q2

CONTENTS

Introduction ................ 2

Second Quarter 2011 Highlights ................ 3

Section I: Trends by Municipality ................ 4

Splits by Municipality ................ 8

Quarterly Trends ............. 10

Section II: Splits and Trends by Use Type ............. 18

Percentage by Use Type ............. 19

Valuation Split by Use Type ............. 21

Parcel Count Split by Use Type ............. 24

2330 East Bidwell St, Ste 200 Folsom, California 95630-3898 P. (888) 217 - 8999 F. (916) 817 - 4110

1

2


The I-TRaC™ Report has been designed as a tool for municipal financemanagers to better estimate the total Assessed Value of their City orDistrict. Financial professionals or those simply tasked with budgeting fortheir district deploy a number of tools to assist in forecasting property taxrevenue; formal or informal numbers from the County Assessor's office,outside consulting firms, connecting with local Realtors along withinternal spreadsheets and data bases. The I-TRaC™ Report supplementsthe existing forecasting process and because it is based on the mostcurrent data available from County Assessors, it provides an extrameasure of insight and detail.

The I-TRaC™ Report has also been designed to provide municipal finance managers with the capability toconsistently demonstrate the estimated trends in Assessed Value to the various publics that may not be familiar withthe nuance of property tax finance. The graphs have been created to be used in formal presentations or simplycopied and distributed to board members or council members.

Occasionally the user of the I-TRaC™ Spreadsheet Report will see numbers that seem anomalous or downrightcrazy. These are outliers. An outlier is an observation that appears to deviate markedly from other members of thesample in which it occurs. The I-TRaC Report in its current form does not systematically remove outliers. We haveremoved errors to the best of our ability. An example of an error is a sales price of tens of millions of dollars in aresidential neighborhood; we would research that and discover it was a data entry error which gets corrected in ournext daily update from the Assessor. However, if a property has a legitimate sales price significantly different fromthe Lien Date Roll (LDR) value, that spread will be included in the trending calculations applied to the whole datapopulation, and if significant enough can distort the Prop 8 and/or Prop 13 trended values reported. This isprecisely why the data is provided by Tax Rate Area (TRA), showing each TRA's Prop 8 trend, Prop 13 trend andTotal trended change. As a result, outliers within individual TRAs are quickly identified and someone with the localknowledge of that particular micro market would best be able to interpret the data and incorporate any appropriateadjustments into your organization's analysis.

For example, the data may show that Prop 13 sales prices relative to Prop 13 LDR values were up 45% in oneparticular tax rate area, but upon closer examination, your local knowledge of that particular neighborhood allowsyou to temper that trend because you know that properties in that neighborhood have been flipped by investors andthat your district total value is really not growing by 45%.

ParcelQuest does not nor do we have plans to interpret any of the data. We welcome your input into how outliersmay be handled in the future.

3


Second Quarter 2011 Highlights

At this time of the year, most agency users of these reports are using the data as part of their analysis to confirm oradjust their estimates of property tax revenues (or tax increment revenues) for the new year and to betterunderstand the new LDR. Because the reports are based on actual Assessor data, the reports provide you with aninside look into the new LDR that no other source provides so easily and timely.

This is a great time to review the change in values and the trends in parcels with Prop 8 valuations and those withProp 13 valuations; and consider how these trends correlate with your understanding of your local real estatemarket(s). In addition, now that the data reflects the new LDR, it may be a great time to review your longer-termperspective and begin considering how activity in the coming year through normal property turnover, development,and due to changes in the local economy would likely effect property tax revenues in the year and years to come.

4


Section I: Trends by Municipality

Total Assessed Value • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value by year in the City of Sampleville broken out by currentvaluation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13. Since properties having received reductions under Prop-8 are generallyexpected to reflect changes in market values (both up or down) until such time that their individual values return totheir Prop-13 base values as adjusted for each year's Prop-13 growth factors, this chart provides an indication asto how much of your Agency's assessed value is more subject to changes in your local real estate market. Thegreater the Prop-8 share, the more your jurisdiction's change in assessed value is likely to reflect changes in thereal estate market. Don't forget, though, that the County Assessor can initiate and/or increase a Prop-8 reduction ifthe underlying real estate market suggests that the current assessed value is more than a property's market value.

Total Assessed Value

City of Sampleville

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Prop 8 Prop 13 Prop Total

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Total Assessed Value • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value by year in Sacramento County broken out by current valuationtype, either Prop-8 or Prop-13. This is the same analysis as the previous page, but for the entire County. It isincluded in order to provide some insight into whether your jurisdiction has been experiencing, on average, Prop-8impacts on assessed value greater than, less than, or similar to what is being experienced countywide.

Total Assessed Value

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Total Number of Parcels • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the total parcel count by year in the City of Sampleville broken out by current valuationtype, either Prop-8 or Prop-13. Since properties having received reductions under Prop-8 are generally expected toreflect changes in market values (both up or down) until such time that their individual values return to their Prop-13base values as adjusted for each year's Prop-13 growth factors, this chart provides an indication as to how manyparcels in your jurisdiction have assessed values that are more greatly influenced by changes in your local realestate market. The greater the Prop-8 share, the more your jurisdiction's change in assessed value is likely to reflectchanges in the local real estate market. Don't forget, though, that the County Assessor can initiate and/or increase aProp-8 reduction if the underlying real estate market suggests that the current assessed value is more than aproperty's market value.

Total Number of Parcels

City of Sampleville

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Total Number of Parcels • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the total parcel count by year in Sacramento County broken out by current valuationtype, either Prop-8 or Prop-13. This is the same analysis as the previous page, but for the entire County. It isincluded in order to provide some insight into whether your jurisdiction has been experiencing the effects of Prop-8reductions on more, less, or similar shares of your parcels than those made countywide.

Total Number of Parcels


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Value Split • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the percentage of the Total Assessed Value of each current valuation type in the City ofSampleville. This chart is particularly useful in visualizing the trend your jurisdiction is experiencing related toProp-13 vs. Prop-8 assessed values. Increasing Prop-8 proportions are an indication that future changes are likelyto be influenced more strongly by the strength, or weakness, of the local real estate market. Decreasing Prop-8proportions means that future values are likely to be driven more by Prop-13 type inflation adjustments andreassessments.

Value Split

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Value Split • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the percentage of the Total Assessed Value of each current valuation type inSacramento County. This is the same analysis as the previous page, but for the entire County. It is included in orderto provide some insight into whether your jurisdiction has been experiencing the effects of Prop-8 reductions onmore, less, or similar amounts of the assessed value than those made countywide.

Value Split


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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value ($ Change) • Prop-8 Parcels • City of Sampleville

Note: Beginning with this second quarter report and continuing to the first quarter of next year, the sales activity forthe current year will be compared to the most recent Lien Date Value (LDR) which closed in July. Therefore, thescale of the particular graph may have changed - either smaller or larger - from the first quarter report.

The following graph shows the quarterly trend of Prop-8 parcel sales price relative to that year's January Lien DateRoll value in the City of Sampleville. The most important aspect of this chart is "direction" (is the change in positiveor negative territory) and the number of quarters that direction has prevailed; although the data for the 4th and 1stcalendar quarters are likely to be the most critical.

If Prop-8 parcels are being sold for less than the roll value, it's an indication of further deterioration of the market asit is likely to affect future assessed values; and you should go back and consider the potential impacts of suchdeterioration on all of the Prop-8 parcels/values in your jurisdiction. In addition, if the market shows continuedweakness during the first calendar quarter of the year, Assessors may include that information to update or initiatenew Prop-8 adjustments in order to avoid the review and processing of anticipated appeals.

Finally, remember that all sales of property trigger Prop-13 reassessments, and establish new base values. If youhave a large proportion of Prop-8 parcels/values, strong positive changes may translate into overall increases inassessed value as those older Prop-8 values are adjusted to reflect the improving underlying market conditions;persistent negative changes may well translate into longer lasting declines in property tax revenues.

Keep in mind that both "direction" and "persistence" are key. The greater the number of sales reflected in thesample, the greater the likelihood the trend information will be reflected in the LDR.

Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value ($ Change) • Prop-8 Parcels

City of Sampleville

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2011201020092008

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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value ($ Change) • Prop-8 Parcels • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the quarterly trend of Prop-8 parcel sales price relative to that year's January Lien DateRoll value in Sacramento County. This is the same analysis as on the previous page, but for the entire County. It isincluded in order to provide some insight into the breadth of the underlying real estate market countywide andenable you to compare that information with what you are experiencing in your jurisdiction. The key to comparingthis graph to the one on the previous page is to determine whether the similarities or differences are expected anddo they make sense? A multitude of factors can affect the individual economies within the county. If you seesomething unexpected in your review, investigation could be crucial to better understand how such differencesmight affect your assessed value projections.



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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value ($ Change) • Prop-13 Parcels • City of Sampleville


The following graph shows the quarterly trend of Prop-13 parcel sales price relative to that year's January Lien Datevalue in the City of Sampleville. As with the Prop-8 graphs on the previous pages, the most important aspect of thischart is "direction" (is the change in positive or negative territory) and the number of quarters that direction hasprevailed; although, again, the data for the 4th and 1st calendar quarters are likely to be the most critical.Remember that new home sales are likely to have a positive influence on this analysis, especially during more"normal" times.

If, as a whole, Prop-13 parcels are being sold for less than the roll value (below the line), it's an indication of furtherdeterioration of the market as it is likely to affect future assessed values. You might also anticipate more Prop-8adjustments are forthcoming, and it might be wise to also consider the potential impacts on all of the current Prop-8parcels/values in your jurisdiction.

The two admonitions provided with the similar Prop-8 graphic above hold true here as well:

• If the market shows continued weakness during the first calendar quarter of the year, Assessors may include thatinformation to update or initiate new Prop-8 adjustments in order to avoid the review and processing of anticipatedappeals.• Remember that all sales of property trigger Prop-13 reassessments, and establish new base values. If you have alarge proportion of Prop-8 parcels/values, strong, persistent positive changes may translate into overall increases inassessed value as older Prop-8 values are adjusted to reflect the improving underlying market conditions; persistentnegative changes may well translate into longer lasting declines in property tax revenues.


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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value ($ Change) • Prop-13 Parcels • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the quarterly trend of Prop-13 parcel sales price relative to that year's January Lien Datevalue in Sacramento County. This is the same analysis as the previous page, but for the entire County. It is includedin order to provide some insight into the breadth of the underlying real estate market countywide and enable you tocompare that information with what you are experiencing in your jurisdiction. The key to comparing this graph to theone above is to determine whether the similarities or differences are expected and do they make sense? A multitudeof factors can affect the individual economies within the county. If you see something unexpected in your review,investigation could be crucial to better understand how such differences might affect your assessed valueprojections.



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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value (% Change) • Prop-8 Parcels • City of Sampleville


The following graph shows the quarterly percentage change of Prop-8 parcel sales price relative to that year'sJanuary Lien Date value in the City of Sampleville. As with the Prop-8 Sales Value v. Prior Lien Date Value graph onpage 10, an important aspect of this chart is "direction" (is the change in positive or negative territory) as well as"persistence" (the number of quarters that direction has prevailed); and the data for the 4th and 1st calendarquarters are likely to be the most critical. However, while the chart on page 10 shows the total value change forProp-8 sales, the graph below shows the average percentage change "per sale" of Prop-8 properties. This mayprovide a meaningful way to visualize the likely impact of Prop-8 sales on trended values.

Repeating what has been stated before regarding Prop-8 sales information:

• If Prop-8 parcels are being sold for less than the roll value, it's an indication of further deterioration of the marketas it is likely to affect future assessed values; and you should go back and consider the potential impacts of suchdeterioration on all of the Prop-8 parcels/values in your jurisdiction. In addition, if the market shows continuedweakness during the first calendar quarter of the year, Assessors may include that information to update or initiatenew Prop-8 adjustments in order to avoid the review and processing of anticipated appeals.• Finally, remember that all sales of property trigger Prop-13 reassessments, and establish new base values. If youhave a large proportion of Prop-8 parcels/values, strong positive changes may translate into overall increases inassessed value as those older Prop-8 values are adjusted to reflect the improving underlying market conditions;persistent negative changes may well translate into longer lasting declines in property tax revenues.

And again, both "direction" and "persistence" are key. The greater the number of sales reflected in the sample, thegreater the likelihood the trend information will be reflected in the LDR.

Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value (% Change) • Prop-8 Parcels

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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value (% Change) • Prop-8 Parcels • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the quarterly percentage change of Prop-8 parcel sales price relative to that year'sJanuary Lien Date value in Sacramento County. This is the same average per sale analysis as the previous page, butfor the entire County. It is included in order to provide some insight into the breadth of the impacts underlying thereal estate market countywide and enable you to compare that information with what you are experiencing in yourjurisdiction. The key to comparing this graph to the one on the previous page is to determine whether the similaritiesor differences are expected and do they make sense? A multitude of factors can affect the individual economieswithin the county. If you see something unexpected in your review, investigation could be crucial to betterunderstand how such differences might affect your assessed value projections.



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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value (% Change) • Prop-13 Parcels • City of Sampleville


The following graph shows the quarterly percentage change of Prop-13 parcel sales price relative to that year'sJanuary Lien Date value in the City of Sampleville. As with the Prop-13 sales graph on page 12 above, the mostimportant aspect of this chart is "direction" (is the change in positive or negative territory) and the number ofquarters that direction has prevailed; although, the data for the 4th and 1st calendar quarters are likely to be themost critical. And remember that new home sales are likely to have a positive influence on this analysis, especiallyduring more "normal" times.

In the graph below, the percentage change is an "average per sale". If, on average, Prop-13 parcels are being soldfor less than the roll value, it's an indication of further deterioration of the market and will likely affect future assessedvalues. You might also anticipate more Prop-8 adjustments are forthcoming, and it might be wise to also considerthe potential impacts on all of the current Prop-8 parcels/values in your jurisdiction.

The two admonitions provided with the similar Prop-8 graphic on the previous pages hold true here as well:

• If the market shows continued weakness during the first calendar quarter of the year, County Assessors mayinclude that information to update or initiate new Prop-8 adjustments in order to avoid the review and processing ofanticipated appeals.• Remember that all sales of property trigger Prop-13 reassessments, and establish new base values. If you have alarge proportion of Prop-8 parcels/values, strong positive changes may translate into overall increases in assessedvalue as those older Prop-8 values are adjusted to reflect the improving underlying market conditions; persistentnegative changes may well translate into longer lasting declines in property tax revenues.


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Sale Value vs. Prior Lien Date Value (% Change) • Prop-13 Parcels • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the quarterly percentage change of Prop-13 parcel sales price relative to that year'sJanuary Lien Date value in Sacramento County. This is the same "average per sale" analysis as the previous page,but for the entire County. It is included in order to provide some insight into the breadth of the impacts underlyingthe real estate market countywide and enable you to compare that information with what you are experiencing inyour jurisdiction. The key to comparing this graph to the one above is to determine whether the similarities ordifferences are expected and do they make sense? A multitude of factors can affect the individual economies withinthe county. If you see something unexpected in your review, investigation could be crucial to better understand howsuch differences might affect your assessed value projections.



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Section II: Splits and Trends by Use Type

This section provides a different view of the data, bringing property types (called "Use Types") into consideration.The primary breakdown is between Residential, Commercial/Industrial, and Other (principally Agricultural). SectionII contains the same types of value and parcel information provided in Section I, but shows the information by UseType, so that you can better see where changes in assessed values are occurring. Some jurisdictions have a largeoverall concentration of one type that dominates their overall jurisdictional valuations; and in some it may be that thecountywide information "by type" provides a better comparison than what is shown in Section I. In addition, therevaluation of property due to turnover, new construction, or by Assessor's initiative in any year could beconcentrated in one Use Type, and having knowledge of that could be beneficial to your efforts in understandingyour market and/or projecting property tax revenues.

A few things to note as you review the Section II information. First, Section II data is displayed graphically as well asin the additional "tax rate area by type" tab within the I-TRaC spreadsheet. The graphs are available to help youunderstand the relationships between the underlying values and presence of each general use category in yourcommunity, and many I-TRaC clients find them helpful. Second, Section II data is prepared using annual data only,therefore this data will repeat each successive quarter until the second quarter of 2011.

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Percentage of Total Value by Use Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value by Use Type in the City of Sampleville

Percentage of Total Value by Use Type

City of Sampleville

Residential

Commercial / Industrial

Other

82.64%, Residential 13.69%, Commercial / Industrial

3.67%, Other

Percentage of Total Value by Use Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value by Use Type in Sacramento County.

Percentage of Total Value by Use Type


Residential


Other71.46%, Residential

23.48%, Commercial / Industrial

5.06%, Other

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Number of Parcels (%) by Use Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the percentage of Total Parcels by Use Type in the City of Sampleville.

Number of Parcels (%) by Use Type

City of Sampleville

Residential


Other

91.35%, Residential1.68%, Commercial / Industrial

6.96%, Other

Number of Parcels (%) by Use Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the percentage of Total Parcels by Use Type in Sacramento County.

Number of Parcels (%) by Use Type


Residential


Other

88.56%, Residential

3.34%, Commercial / Industrial

8.1%, Other

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Total Value of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Residential Parcels by year in the City of Samplevillebroken out by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Value of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Value of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Residential Parcels by year in Sacramento County brokenout by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

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Total Value of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Commercial / Industrial Parcels by year in the City ofSampleville broken out by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Value of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Value of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Commercial / Industrial Parcels by year in SacramentoCounty broken out by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

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Total Value of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Other Use Parcels by year in the City of Sampleville brokenout by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Value of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Value of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the Total Assessed Value of Other Use Parcels by year in Sacramento County brokenout by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Value of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type


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Total Number of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the number of Residential Parcels by year in the City of Sampleville broken out bycurrent valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Number of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the number of Residential Parcels by year in Sacramento County broken out by currentvaluation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Residential Parcels by Valuation Type


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Total Number of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the number of Commercial / Industrial Parcels by year in the City of Sampleville brokenout by current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Number of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the number of Commercial / Industrial Parcels by year in Sacramento County broken outby current valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Commercial/Industrial Parcels by Valuation Type


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Total Number of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type • City of Sampleville

The following graph shows the number of Other Use Parcels by year in the City of Sampleville broken out bycurrent valuation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type

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Total Number of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type • County of Sacramento

The following graph shows the number of Other Use Parcels by year in Sacramento County broken out by currentvaluation type, either Prop-8 or Prop-13.

Total Number of Other Use Parcels by Valuation Type


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