i ndirect land use change - a view from iea bioenergy
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I ndirect land use change - a view from IEA Bioenergy. Göran Berndes IEA Bioenergy Task 43 Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden (presented by Uwe R. Fritsche, IEA Bioenergy Task 40 National Team Leader, Öko-Institut, Germany). Need to discuss bioenergy/LUC with regard to - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Indirect land use change - a view from IEA Bioenergy
Göran BerndesIEA Bioenergy Task 43
Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
(presented by Uwe R. Fritsche, IEA Bioenergy Task 40 National Team Leader, Öko-Institut, Germany)
• Need to discuss bioenergy/LUC with regard to– longer term perspectives – 2o C target for 2050 (G8 and UNFCCC)– need for radical energy system transformation
• Incentive schemes and regulation mainly concerned with iLUC favor bioenergy systems with low iLUC risks but which are in other respects inferior (e.g. overall CO2 reduction)
• Strict focus on climate benefits from ecosystem protection may lead to increased conversion pressure on valuable ecosystems that have low C density
One critical strategic question is how society should use the ”remaining space” for GHG emissions
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3500
Cum
ulati
ve C
O2
emis
sion
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Fossil fuel use 1750-2006
Land use change 1850-2005
50% probability of staying below 2 °C
75% probability of staying below 2 °C
Remaining emission space up to 2050
Fossil fuel use since mid 1970s
• One critical strategic question is how society should use the ”remaining space” for GHG emissions– Some of the emission space might be required to develop
a biomass industry capable of providing renewable energy & material services for the world in the long-term
Remaining emission
space
Fill it up with fossil
carbon
...or use some space for
developing alternatives to fossil fuels?
LUC for bioenergy
Non-fossil fuel related Non-fossil fuel related
• Forest bioenergy systems are associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other.
• Evaluation systems that rely on narrow accounting and short time horizons fail to detect important features of forest bioenergy systems
• Active forest management can ensure that increased biomass output need not take place at the cost of reduced forest carbon stocks (but biodiversity is an issue)
Forest bioenergy
Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions.
Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator
Business as usual
Scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentrations stabilize somewhat above 450 ppm. Even lower levels needed for high likelihood of staying below 2 degree warming
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Atm
osph
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CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n(p
arts
per
mill
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ppm
)
Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels proposed in relation to the 2-degree target requires drastic changes in the way the global energy system functions.
The BAU scenario reduces deforestation to 10% of 2010 level by 2100. Bending the BAU curve to stay below 450 ppm requires drastic energy system transformation
Business as usual900
800
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500
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3001960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n(p
arts
per
mill
ion,
ppm
)
Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator
900
800
700
600
500
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3001960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n(p
arts
per
mill
ion,
ppm
)
The effect of strongly reduced LUC emissions is relatively small compared to what is required for reaching such stabilization targets. But the lower the target the more important will LUC emissions be
The difference between the two lower graphs is due to different LUC emissions. • The upmost graph corresponds to a
scenario that has constant deforestation rate equal to the 2010 level up to 2100.
• The lowest graph corresponds to a scenario where the deforestation rate is reduced linearly to reach 10% of the 2010 level by 2100 (same as the BAU case).
Source: Chalmers Climate Calculator