HYPOTHESES ON MISPERCEPTIONRobert Jervis

HYPOTHESIS 1:

“Decision-makers tend to fitincoming information into their

existingtheories and images.”

HYPOTHESIS 2:

“There are two ways to make mistakes:

One is to not change your views in the face of conflicting information,the other is to be too willing to do

so.…

Both scholars and decision-makes are more likely to do the first (not

to change their views).”

HYPOTHESIS 3:

“It's easier to integratecontradicting information into your image if it comes bit-by-bit

than if it comes all at once.So deliver it all at once, as a fully-formed competing theorythat must be reckoned with.”

HYPOTHESIS 4:“Misperception is easiest to correct

if an actor is miscategorized (but the category exists in your head)

(e.g. Britain was aware of the category of expansionist states, but it didn't think

Hitler belonged in it); t is hardest to correct if your mind completely lacks a certain category

(e.g. China in the 19th century didn't know what to make of the West).”

HYPOTHESIS 5:

“If the sender (of a message) hassomething different on his mind

(the "evoked set") than the receiver does,

misunderstanding is likely.”

HYPOTHESIS 6:

“The more time I spend drawing up a plan,

the more clear it is to me.So I will assume it is equally clear to

you,making misperception on your part

even more likely.”

HYPOTHESIS 7:

“An action may convey an unintended message if

the action itself doesn‘t turn out

as planned. ”

HYPOTHESIS 8:

“Decision-makers tendto see other states as more

hostilethan they are.”

HYPOTHESIS 9:

“We tend to assume thatthe behavior of others is more

centralized andcoordinated than it is.”

HYPOTHESIS 10:

“Similarly, we tend to takethe foreign ministry's position as

representative of the government

as a whole.”

HYPOTHESIS 11:

“When states do something we like,

we give ourselves too much creditfor getting them to do so; when

states do something we don't like,

we attribute it mostly to internal (domestic) forces.”

HYPOTHESIS 12:

“When I don't try to conceal my intentions,

I assume that youaccurately perceive them”

HYPOTHESIS 13:

“Suggests that if it is hard for an actor

to believe that the other cansee him as a menace,

it is often even harder for himto see that issues important to him

are not important to others.”

HYPOTHESIS 14:

“We tend to forget thata single bit of evidence might support more than one view,including opposing views.”

Source: http://wikisum.com/w/Jervis:_Hypotheses_on_misperception 01/05/09 10:45AM

From WikiSummary, the Free Social Science Summary Database

Prepared by:Edwin B. Estrera

B.A. Political Science 4University of the Philippines Cebu College