hype cycle for automotive electronics 2008

ResearchPublication Date: 8 August 2008 ID Number: G00159716

© 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2008 Mike Williams, Adriana Blanco, Joseph Unsworth, Masatsune Yamaji, Jon Erensen, Stan Bruederle

Almost all innovation in the design of motor vehicles stems from developments in electronics. This Hype Cycle identifies key technologies that will affect future automotive electronic applications and examines the issues facing the automotive industry.

Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 of 30

© 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 4 What You Need to Know ...................................................................................................... 4 The Hype Cycle .................................................................................................................... 4 The Priority Matrix ................................................................................................................ 6 On the Rise........................................................................................................................... 6

Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines) ....................................................... 6 Autonomous Vehicle................................................................................................ 7

At the Peak ........................................................................................................................... 8 Autosar .................................................................................................................... 8 Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) ............................................................................................... 8 Lane Departure Warning ......................................................................................... 9 802.11b/g................................................................................................................. 9 802.11p (DSRC) .................................................................................................... 10

Sliding Into the Trough .......................................................................................................10 Biometric Ignition ................................................................................................... 10 Night Vision Enhancement Systems ..................................................................... 11 Head-Up Displays.................................................................................................. 11 Integrated Starter Alternator Damper .................................................................... 12 42-Volt Net............................................................................................................. 12 Local Interconnect Network................................................................................... 13 Safe-by-Wire Plus.................................................................................................. 13 Active Steering ...................................................................................................... 14 Haptics................................................................................................................... 15 FlexRay.................................................................................................................. 15 Removable Solid-State Storage ............................................................................ 16 Adaptive Cruise Control......................................................................................... 16 Brake-by-Wire........................................................................................................ 17 CMOS Image Sensors........................................................................................... 17 Radar Sensors....................................................................................................... 18 Remote Diagnostics .............................................................................................. 19 Rigid Disk Drives ................................................................................................... 19

Climbing the Slope ............................................................................................................. 20 Hybrid Electric Vehicles......................................................................................... 20 Portable Navigation Devices ................................................................................. 20 Bluetooth — Automotive........................................................................................ 21 GPS/Telematics..................................................................................................... 21 Ultrasonic Parking Sensors ................................................................................... 22 Media Oriented Systems Transport....................................................................... 23 Digital Radio .......................................................................................................... 23 ESP/ESC ............................................................................................................... 24

Entering the Plateau ........................................................................................................... 24 CAN/J1850 ............................................................................................................ 24

Appendixes......................................................................................................................... 26 Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels .................................... 28

Recommended Reading.................................................................................................................. 29



LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases ........................................................................................................... 28 Table 2. Benefit Ratings .................................................................................................................. 28 Table 3. Maturity Levels .................................................................................................................. 29

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2008.................................................................... 5 Figure 2. Priority Matrix for Automotive Electronics, 2008 ................................................................ 6 Figure 3. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2007.................................................................. 26



ANALYSIS

What You Need to Know Electronics are a major part of every development program for motor vehicles. By 2018, they will represent more than 30% of the cost of a new car as more networking subsystems are used. Semiconductors will account for a growing share of this figure.

Although automotive OEMs remain extremely competitive and therefore very secretive about their plans for new vehicles, the need to cut costs is forcing them to work with rivals to develop standards and common platforms for next-generation electronics systems.

The Hype Cycle Gartner's Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics covers a range of technologies that will affect electronic applications in motor vehicles. It highlights those we think will have most impact on the key growth areas of safety, infotainment, driver assistance, and alternative fuel and power supplies.



Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2008

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

ExpectationsTrough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

time

visibility

Years to mainstream adoption:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2008

CAN/J1850ESP/ESC

Digital Radio

Media Oriented Systems TransportUltrasonic Parking Sensors

GPS/TelematicsBluetooth — Automotive

Portable Navigation DevicesHybrid Electric Vehicles

Rigid Disk DrivesRemote Diagnostics

CMOS Image Sensors

Brake-by-Wire Radar Sensors

Adaptive Cruise Control

RemovableSolid-State Storage

FlexRay

Active SteeringSafe-by-Wire Plus

LocalInterconnect

Network

42-Volt NetIntegrated Starter Alternator Damper

Head-Up Displays

Haptics

Night Vision Enhancement Systems

Biometric Ignition

802.11p (DSRC)802.11b/g

Lane Departure WarningHydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Autosar

Autonomous Vehicle

Hydrogen Fuel(Internal Combustion

Engines)

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

time

visibility





As of July 2008

CAN/J1850ESP/ESC

Digital Radio


GPS/TelematicsBluetooth — Automotive

Portable Navigation DevicesHybrid Electric Vehicles

Rigid Disk DrivesRemote Diagnostics

CMOS Image Sensors

Brake-by-Wire Radar Sensors


RemovableSolid-State Storage

FlexRay

Active SteeringSafe-by-Wire Plus

LocalInterconnect

Network

42-Volt NetIntegrated Starter Alternator Damper

Head-Up Displays

Haptics


Biometric Ignition

802.11p (DSRC)802.11b/g

Lane Departure WarningHydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Autosar

Autonomous Vehicle

Hydrogen Fuel(Internal Combustion

Engines)

Source: Gartner (July 2008)



The Priority Matrix This section highlights key technologies that we think will significantly affect the development of electronics in motor vehicles, such as GPS, sensors (optical and nonoptical) and advanced fuel solutions. They will lead to the development of vehicles that are more fuel-efficient and intelligent — and ultimately to autonomous vehicles.

Figure 2. Priority Matrix for Automotive Electronics, 2008

low

years to mainstream adoptionbenefit

moderate

high

transformational

As of July 2008


Remote Diagnostics

802.11b/g

Bluetooth — Automotive

Media Oriented Systems Transport

Removable Solid-State Storage

CAN/J1850

Portable Navigation Devices

Safe-by-Wire Plus

Ultrasonic Parking Sensors

Hybrid Electric VehiclesAutosar

Biometric Ignition

FlexRay

Lane Departure Warning

Brake-by-Wire

Digital Radio

ESP/ESC

Haptics

Integrated Starter Alternator Damper


Local Interconnect Network

42-Volt Net

Autonomous Vehicle

Hydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines)

802.11p (DSRC)

Active Steering

Head-Up Displays

Radar Sensors

CMOS Image Sensors

Rigid Disk Drives

GPS/Telematics

more than 10 years5 to 10 years2 to 5 yearsless than 2 years

low

years to mainstream adoptionbenefit

moderate

high

transformational

As of July 2008


Remote Diagnostics

802.11b/g

Bluetooth — Automotive

Media Oriented Systems Transport


CAN/J1850

Portable Navigation Devices

Safe-by-Wire Plus

Ultrasonic Parking Sensors

Hybrid Electric VehiclesAutosar

Biometric Ignition

FlexRay


Brake-by-Wire

Digital Radio

ESP/ESC

Haptics

Integrated Starter Alternator Damper



42-Volt Net

Autonomous Vehicle

Hydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines)

802.11p (DSRC)

Active Steering

Head-Up Displays

Radar Sensors

CMOS Image Sensors

Rigid Disk Drives

GPS/Telematics

more than 10 years5 to 10 years2 to 5 yearsless than 2 years


On the Rise Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines) Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Auto manufacturers have been developing liquid hydrogen fuel from water using solar power for internal combustion engines.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The quest for alternative, clean fuels is relentless as shortages of fossil fuels loom. Fuel cell technology is being developed, but liquid hydrogen is also being explored as a replacement fuel for internal combustion engines, which will reduce air



pollution and will also be renewable. However, compared with petrol engines, the costs of current hydrogen solutions remain prohibitive.

User Advice: The manufacture, storage and delivery of hydrogen fuel as a mainstream fuel alternative is still many years away because the technology to make the supply chain viable remains a challenge for the industry.

Business Impact: Hydrogen fuel offers a risk-averse and cost-effective solution to alternative fuel technology, without reinventing the entire powertrain system in motor vehicles, as has been proposed for electric or hybrid-fuel-cell vehicles.

Benefit Rating: Transformational

Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience

Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: BMW; Ford; General Motors; Hydrogen Car Company; Mercedes-Benz

Recommended Reading: "Hybrid Electric Vehicles Are a Step Toward 'Greener' Cars"

Autonomous Vehicle Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: An autonomous vehicle is one that can drive itself from a starting point to a predetermined destination in "autopilot" mode using adaptive cruise control, active steering (steer-by-wire), an anti-lock braking system (brake by wire) and GPS navigation technology.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Collision avoidance systems (including adaptive cruise control), electronic throttle, active steering and brake-by-wire technologies promise to deliver a car that can use its navigation and lane-keeping support systems to drive itself from a starting point to a destination without colliding with other road users. The deployment of autonomous vehicles is being developed as a safety application. The two most recent U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenges, held during 2H05 and 2H07, demonstrated the viability of this technology in the desert. In the summer of 2008, another DARPA Grand Challenge will bring a pilot project to U.S. highways.

User Advice: The development of autonomous vehicles largely depends on sensor technologies. Many types of sensor will be deployed in the most effective autonomous vehicles. Sensor data needs high-speed data buses and very high-performance compute processors to provide real-time route guidance, navigation and obstacle detection.

Business Impact: Car manufacturers are developing autopilot technology as a safety system for drivers. It is being presented as a driver-assistance technology, rather than as an autopilot system that will take over the driver's role.



Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: BMW; General Motors; Mercedes-Benz; Toyota; Volkswagen; Volvo

Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"



At the Peak Autosar Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Autosar — automotive open system architecture — is the name of a joint initiative by automotive OEMs, suppliers and tool developers to develop an open, standardized architecture for automotive software and electrical hardware. Specifically, the aim is to provide basic infrastructure for developing software, user interfaces and management functions for all system domains within a vehicle's electronics.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: At present, proprietary products dominate in automotive electronics. This situation prevents automotive OEMs and their suppliers from sharing technologies. As a result, assuming the number of functions performed by automotive electronics continues to grow exponentially, their proliferation will become difficult to control. Autosar is currently in the product prototyping and development phase. When it becomes commercially available it will provide a much improved architectural environment for the management of functions and system domains.

User Advice: Autosar is rapidly gaining attention from automotive OEMs and system designers. Work on prototype products is under way. Autosar is positioned to emerge as the de facto standard for automotive electronics hardware and software platforms.

Business Impact: If Autosar succeeds, car manufacturers will be able to standardize and share components and thereby lower system development costs for future automotive electronics. Many of Autosar's low-level components are based on the OSEK-VDX operating system, which is widely deployed by automotive OEMs in Europe.

Benefit Rating: High


Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: BMW; Bosch; Continental; DaimlerChrysler; Ford; PSA Peugeot Citroen; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Volkswagen

Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: A fuel cell works like a battery, but does not run down or need recharging. It will produce electricity and heat as long as fuel (hydrogen) is supplied. A fuel cell consists of two electrodes — a negative electrode (or anode) and a positive electrode (or cathode) — sandwiched between an electrolyte. Hydrogen is fed to the anode, and oxygen is fed to the cathode. Hydrogen atoms, activated by a catalyst, separate into protons and electrons, which take different paths to the cathode. The electrons go through an external circuit, creating a flow of electricity. The protons migrate through the electrolyte to the cathode, where they reunite with oxygen and the electrons to produce water and heat.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Increasing costs of oil-derived fuels have made hybrid electric vehicles a viable option for some drivers. With the shortage of oil reserves worldwide, automotive manufacturers are seeking alternative fuels to power the vehicles of the future.



User Advice: Hydrogen fuel-cell trials are starting in major vehicle test drives as the global economy readies itself for an ongoing oil reserve crisis. Hydrogen fuel cells may be used as replacement fuel for electric vehicles.

Business Impact: This is a more environmentally friendly alternative to electric fuel cell technology.



Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: Ballard Power Systems; General Motors; Mitsubishi; Siemens AG


Lane Departure Warning Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Lane departure warning (LDW) deploys an optical sensor (a complementary metal-oxide semiconductor camera) that reads road lane markers and provides an audible warning to drivers when they involuntarily drift outside their lane.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Fatigue and tiredness can affect drivers' ability to concentrate and stay in their own lanes. LDW provides an early warning to aid driver alertness.

User Advice: Lane departure warning systems are developed for motorway/highway driving and usually switch on when the vehicle speed exceeds a set threshold, such as 50 miles per hour. LDW systems for low-speed thresholds may be a nuisance for drivers in congested city areas.

Business Impact: Lane departure warning enhances vehicle safety and enables the "autopilot" capability of next-generation cars.



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: ADC (Continental Temic); Bosch; Delphi; Siemens VDO Automotive


802.11b/g Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: This refers to access infrastructure that supports 802.11b and 802.11g standards.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11b/g is used more in homes than in offices, but it is starting to attract interest from automotive manufacturers looking to provide Internet access in the car.

User Advice: Although 802.11b/g is widely used in many applications, automotive OEMs should wait for 802.11p, the version specifically designed for automobile applications. However, it is important to understand that the timing of 802.11p is linked to the deployment of the necessary



infrastructure. The 802.11p standard is expected to be released in 2009. Deployment will be three to five years after that.

Business Impact: The effects of 802.11b/g deployment will be mobility, convenience, real-time collaboration and wireline replacement.

Benefit Rating: Moderate


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Nokia; Volkswagen

802.11p (DSRC) Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11p standard, also referred to as Wireless Access in the Vehicular Environment (WAVE), is a standard in the IEEE 802.11 family that defines enhancements required to support Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications. The specification covers communications between vehicles and the roadside infrastructure in the licensed band of 5.9GHz (5.85GHz to 5.925GHz). 802.11p will be used as the blueprint for Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC).

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11p is used in ad hoc wireless network communications for vehicular applications.

User Advice: 802.11p is emerging as a dominant technology for wireless, short-range transaction communications, such as road tolling.

Business Impact: 802.11p significantly enhances traffic flow by increasing the bandwidth of tolling plazas and by improving overall transaction-processing cycles.



Maturity: Emerging

Sliding Into the Trough Biometric Ignition Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Passive entry systems have safety features that disable the push-button engine-start function if the gear selector is not in the neutral position or the clutch or brake is not depressed. However, passive entry systems are based on single-factor authentication, and unauthorized ignition is still possible if the card is in the vehicle's cabin. Auto manufacturers will migrate to biometric technology as a method for two-factor authentication, enhancing confirmation and further safeguarding keyless ignition systems.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Auto manufacturers are migrating from keyless entry systems to passive entry systems with keyless ignition. Biometric authentication adds security and safety to keyless ignition solutions.



User Advice: Biometric ignition system readers need to be made more cost-effective and practicable for automotive OEMs to implement. Current solutions are not suited to frequent use, as fingerprint readers are easily obscured by smears.

Business Impact: Biometric ignition technology enhances security for ignition systems in cars. It also enables highly personalized settings for the driver's seat, mirror, steering and driving mode (sporting or economy, for example).



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Bosch; Delphi; Siemens VDO Automotive

Recommended Reading: "Manufacturers Personalize Car Electronics to Tempt Buyers"

"Automotive Keyless Ignition: Going Biometric"

Night Vision Enhancement Systems Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Night vision enhancement systems (NVESs) use infrared (IR) cameras, radar sensors or thermal imaging sensors to supplement the visibility provided by standard headlamps. They detect IR light waves not visible to the human eye. NVESs work by detecting either near IR (NIR) light waves or far IR (FIR) light waves.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: NVESs increase the range of visibility in the dark.

User Advice: Several options are available for providing night vision awareness. These include illuminated icons on windshields or dashboard instrument clusters, as well as audible warnings.

Business Impact: NVESs improve drivers' vision when traveling in darkness, increasing pedestrians' safety.


Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience

Maturity: Adolescent

Sample Vendors: BMW; General Motors; Lexus; Mercedes-Benz

Head-Up Displays Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Head-up display (HUD) devices use light-emitting diode (LED) or liquid crystal display (LCD) projection technology to display images within a driver's line of vision.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Early warning signals and night vision enhancement systems use HUD technology. With the demography of the global population leading increasingly to an ageing global community, vision aids will enhance driver safety.

User Advice: Already deployed by BMW as an option in its 5 Series, HUDs are slowly gaining market penetration. They are especially helpful in countries with high-speed freeways and for night-driving vision enhancement.



Business Impact: HUDs enhance the safety of drivers when traveling in darkness. They enable drivers to keep their eyes on the road while critical information is projected through the windscreen.




Sample Vendors: Delphi Automotive Systems; Microvision; Siemens VDO Automotive


Integrated Starter Alternator Damper Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Integrated starter alternator damper (ISAD) is an energy management platform that unites the functions of the starter, generator and damper to minimize engine vibrations in a single electric device. This device is built into the powertrain, between the engine and transmission, to save space. Therefore, conventionally designed starters and generators become superfluous.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The ISAD system is designed to support combined 12/42-volt systems. It reduces fuel consumption, increases power production, provides rapid engine start capability and eliminates powertrain oscillations. Unlike conventional starters, ISAD assembly starts the combustion engine by triggering the rotation of the crankshaft electromagnetically. Its powerful asynchronous motor revs the combustion engine from stationary to idling speed in a fraction of a second. Through its start-stop functionality and exceptionally high efficiency, ISAD offers unique energy-saving benefits.

User Advice: ISAD is a hybrid electric vehicle system that enables power delivery from the electric drive system, yielding higher fuel economy and an increase in torque of about 10%.

Business Impact: ISAD enhances the fuel and energy efficiency of hybrid cars and electric vehicles.



Maturity: Early mainstream

Sample Vendors: Continental Automotive Systems

42-Volt Net Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Auto makers are increasingly using electronics in innovative ways and to differentiate themselves. The 14-volt electrical system limits the amount of power available for new features, so auto makers and suppliers have proposed a standard 42-volt electrical system. The higher-voltage system has implications for the electronics in vehicles and enables electronic systems that were not previously possible.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Most early 42-volt applications will target the powertrain because it is there that the greatest compliance with environmental regulations can be



achieved. In addition, auto makers are likely to target luxury or high-end vehicles, where higher profit margins will help to justify the cost of change.

User Advice: The development of 42-volt systems has been put on hold until the industry can justify the cost of implementation. However, legislation may bring implementation of 42-volt systems forward.

Business Impact: The development of electric vehicles could result in synergies suitable for the 42-volt system, and reduce costs and risks.



Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: BMW; Delphi; Denso; Johnson Controls; Renault; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Vishay


Local Interconnect Network Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Local interconnect network is an end-to-end solution for in-vehicle communication and networking, with data transmission rates of up to 20 Kbps.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Local interconnect network is suitable for automotive body control applications, including roof, seat position, mirrors, doors, steering wheel, lighting and climate control.

User Advice: Local interconnect network has emerged as the low-cost protocol of choice for automotive body control applications.

Business Impact: Local interconnect network enhances car body network applications and enables individual driver configuration setup.




Sample Vendors: Allegro MicroSystems; Analog Devices; Elmos Semiconductor; Freescale Semiconductor; Fujitsu Microelectronics; Infineon Technologies; Melexis Microelectronic Systems; Microchip Technology; NEC Electronics; ON Semiconductors; Philips Semiconductors; Renesas Technology; STMicroelectronics; TI Automotive; Toshiba Electronics

Safe-by-Wire Plus Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: The Safe-by-Wire Plus consortium was formed in 2004 to create a single and open global standard for an automotive safety bus. By defining a standardized bus interface, designs to ensure occupant safety may be substantially simplified, enabling rapid customization and reduced development costs. By the end of 2005, version 2.0 of the Automotive Safety Restraints Bus



(ASRB) was released. The ASRB 2.0 specification is now a global standard, ISO22896, otherwise known as Safe-by-Wire Plus.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Automotive safety is a key application area for automobile manufacturers because it increases sales of new cars. Reducing costs delivers an opportunity for manufacturers of safety electronics to deliver higher-value application complexities to automotive OEMs.

User Advice: Safe-by-Wire Plus will be implemented by automotive OEMs as an enhancement to car safety systems and as a way to reduce the cost of electronics in auto safety applications. The Safe-by-Wire Plus bus speed can be changed on the fly, but is capable of speeds of 20, 40, 80 or 160 kilobits per second.

Business Impact: Safe-by-Wire Plus will deliver enhancements to future safety systems for vehicle occupants, enabling connectivity between airbag crash sensors, airbag squib inflators and seat-belt pretensioners.



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Analog Devices; Autoliv; Bosch; Continental; Delphi; Key Safety Systems; NXP; Renesas; TRW Automotive

Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Solid Prospects for Airbag Control Module Semiconductors"

Active Steering Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Active steering enables proportional steering ratios to be achieved by a stepper motor. The motor is controlled by a dedicated electronic control unit. It delivers sharper and more direct responses to steering at low speeds, and it makes parking in tight spots effortless. At high speeds, the steering is less direct so the vehicle is unaffected by small accidental steering movements on straight roads.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: A safety feature built into the system countersteers the vehicle to prevent spinning if the driver has to swerve sharply in an emergency maneuver. Safety features such as active steering will appeal to the aging demographic.

User Advice: Active steering is aimed at enhancing vehicle safety and will be a major constituent technology in developing and enabling the autonomous vehicle.

Business Impact: Active steering enhances vehicle safety and enables "autopilot" capability of next-generation cars.




Sample Vendors: ZF Lenksysteme




Haptics Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Haptics refers to the use of tactile interfaces, such as gloves or a joystick, to provide touch or force feedback as part of the user interface.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In cars, multifunction computer systems, such as those for navigation and "infotainment," are using haptic technology to help drivers navigate through menu-driven applications. The use of haptic technology is well established in games and remote controls, but wider adoption will depend on broader acceptance of virtual-reality applications, or on more-seamless inclusion in standard interface components, such as touchpads and mice. Haptic technology is being deployed in high-end automobiles using a joystick-like controller for multifunction systems. BMW first implemented this technology in its 7 Series model with the iDrive controller.

User Advice: Haptic technology in cars needs to be optimally aligned with the user-interface software to enable user-friendly multimedia access and control.

Business Impact: Haptic technology helps provide force-feedback communication to drivers without them having to look away from the road at complex controls.




Sample Vendors: Immersion; SensAble Technologies

FlexRay Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: FlexRay is a new network communications system targeted specifically at the next-generation of automotive, or "by-wire" applications. These applications demand high-speed bus systems that are deterministic, fault-tolerant and capable of supporting distributed control systems.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The need for a network standard that can cope with the data transmission rates of by-wire technology is growing.

User Advice: FlexRay was first targeted at high-speed automotive and industrial-networking applications. It was initially for chassis applications, but semiconductor vendors are now starting to target automotive powertrain and safety electronics applications.

Business Impact: With the increasing amount of data communication between a vehicle's electronic control units, it is important that a high data rate can be achieved. FlexRay is initially aimed at a data rate of approximately 10 Mbps, but the design of the protocol allows for much higher data rates to be achieved.






Sample Vendors: BMW; Bosch; Freescale Semiconductor; NXP

Removable Solid-State Storage Analysis By: Mike Williams; Joseph Unsworth

Definition: Removable solid-state storage (RS3) encompasses portable storage devices that contain no moving parts and use nonvolatile memory. This category primarily consists of, but is not limited to, flash cards and Universal Serial Bus (USB) flash drives. These products are gaining acceptance among consumers and OEMs as the primary means to satisfy the data storage needs of applications, while keeping the cost of in-system storage to a minimum.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Flash cards are becoming ubiquitous in most consumer electronics applications, while USB drives are becoming common as a practical means of storing and transporting digital content between PCs. RS3 suppliers are interested in pursuing nontraditional applications to provide added value for consumers, while maintaining or increasing margins. As a result, there are several models of car stereo that feature flash-card slots or USB ports, and this has extended to a few select models of vehicles.

User Advice: OEM designers should use slots that feature either the secure digital card form factor or USB-based storage products, because of their widespread availability in portable consumer products and PCs.

Business Impact: RS3 can enhance the navigation of GPSs by providing them with preloaded updateable maps that can show different locations. Slots or ports in vehicles can support media playback for "infotainment" while leveraging the advantages of removable media, which is solid state and consumes less power. In addition, RS3 can be used to store telematics information, diagnostic details (including sensor information) and service history.




Sample Vendors: Samsung; SanDisk; Sony; Toshiba

Adaptive Cruise Control Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Adaptive cruise control enables a car to automatically adjust its cruising speed to maintain a set distance from the vehicle ahead.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Current cruise control systems are only able to maintain a set speed. Increasing complexities in traffic and road infrastructure require automatically variable speed cruise control to make these systems more usable.

User Advice: Adaptive cruise control is the next logical advance in cruise control systems and will be a critical component in realizing the autonomous vehicle. It enables the car to automatically reset its speed to that of the vehicle ahead. This offers a superior and more dynamic solution for fully-automatic cruise control systems.

Business Impact: Adaptive cruise control deploys radar sensors that can sense vehicles traveling ahead. The system uses ranging algorithms to slow a car by detecting the speed of the



vehicle ahead and decelerating the engine or, in extreme conditions, applying the braking system. When the road is clear, the system enables the car to accelerate to the set speed.




Sample Vendors: BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Denso; Ford; General Motors; Robert Bosch; Toyota


Brake-by-Wire Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Brake-by-wire systems will eliminate hydraulic braking systems by replacing conventional actuators with electric motor-driven units. This does away with many of the manufacturing, maintenance and environmental concerns associated with hydraulic systems.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Brake-by-wire systems provide a safer and more-precise braking system, with a high degree of efficiency and accuracy.

User Advice: Consumers will need to be convinced that this technology is at least as reliable as established hydraulic and mechanical braking systems.

Business Impact: Brake-by-wire systems enhance vehicle safety and enable "autopilot" capability of next-generation cars.



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: ADC (Continental Temic); Bosch; Continental Automotive Systems; Delphi; Denso; Visteon


CMOS Image Sensors Analysis By: Mike Williams; Masatsune Yamaji

Definition: An image sensor is a device that converts a visual image into an electrical signal. Image sensors are divided into two categories: charge-coupled device sensors and complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors. The electrical signals are sent to an image processor that analyzes the different images and passes that information on to other electronic systems for active intervention in vehicle control.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Image sensor adoption in automobiles has been limited to high-end, luxury vehicles and large SUVs. Image sensors have been typically used for backup cameras, but they are starting to expand into other applications. The problem is that the complete camera system using these sensors is still expensive, and other nonoptical sensor technologies can often be used at a lower cost.



User Advice: Safety is a major driver for the use of image sensors and image analysis systems in automobiles, and these sensors and systems will be used for several different applications. To date, image sensors in cars have been primarily used for backup cameras to detect objects behind a car when in reverse. In the future, image sensors will be used for lane change assistance, night vision, parking assistance, front-seat occupant detection for smart airbag deployment, drowsy driver alert and backseat monitoring. Systems that provide the driver with an accurate picture of the changing environment surrounding them and help them make better decisions in critical situations — or intervene with vehicle control if necessary — will drive this accident-limiting technology.

Business Impact: The combination of rugged image sensors with high dynamic range and high-performance image-processing capabilities in automobiles will deliver several new applications to enhance driver safety and security. As performance increases and the cost of imaging systems decreases, image sensors will penetrate more classes of automobiles.




Sample Vendors: ADC (Continental Temic); Bosch; Delphi; Visteon

Radar Sensors Analysis By: Adriana Blanco

Definition: Radar sensors use Doppler radar systems for measuring the vehicle's linear velocity. Beams are emitted and the reflections from vehicles nearby are used to calculate distance, relative positions and relative speed.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: These type of sensors are good for situations that require effective distance measurements and relative positions of other vehicles. The 24GHz frequency is used for close-range (less than 30 meters) sensing features such as blind spot detection and lane change assistance. The 77GHz frequency is used specifically for adaptive cruise control (ACC) long-range sensing (less than 140 meters).

User Advice: Traditionally, ACC is only activated at speeds of more than 30 kilometers per hour. Consequently, it was not well-suited for city use, but was usually intended instead for motorway use. Currently, better performance sensors are available for short distances and have improved the monitoring of the surroundings of a car in stop-and-go driving conditions typical of city driving. Users should also consider the possibilities of wireless communications such as 802.11p and GPS for collision avoidance systems, such as car-to-car communications and car-to-infrastructure communications.

Business Impact: Overall, sensors are used for monitoring different areas around and inside the car. Radar sensors are used for close-range and long-range sensing, depending on the frequency used. The use of this type of sensor, among others, will enable 360-degree visibility around the car, enabling safety and driving assistance features that will not only warn drivers but also intervene actively in the mechanics of the vehicle to avoid a collision.






Sample Vendors: Continental; Delphi; Hella; Mitsubishi; M/A-COM; Robert Bosch; TRW Automotive

Remote Diagnostics Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Remote diagnostics refers to the wireless transmission of vehicle diagnostics data to an authorized dealer service center for vehicle maintenance purposes. The automatically captured diagnostics information and the automatically delivered service requests to the dealership are sometimes referred to as telematics, but this is actually the same telemetry technology used in Formula 1 motor racing.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Remote diagnostics offers a value-added service for car owners and reduced vehicle downtime when scheduled for routine servicing.

User Advice: Recommendations will depend on widespread infrastructure availability for wireless networking, such as Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM), general packet radio service (GPRS), Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution (EDGE) or 802.11x technologies.

Business Impact: Experience is likely to foster vehicle manufacturer brand loyalty.



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: ATX Group; BMW; Mercedes-Benz; OnStar

Rigid Disk Drives Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Rigid disk drives (RDDs) are the most common storage devices used in many computing and MP3 player systems to store digital data, and audio and video content. In automotive applications, RDDs provide greater suitability for compressed digital video content, digital audio content and digital video game formats.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The emergence of GPS navigation systems, game content, and digital music and video formats is leading OEMs of automotive and consumer electronics products to use RDDs as a storage platform for digital data content.

User Advice: Automotive "infotainment" applications will drive demand for high-capacity storage devices in automotive applications. RDDs will be used to hold compressed digital video and music content as well as, possibly, vehicle operating manuals.

Business Impact: These drives provide portable, high-capacity data storage in a compact form. Additional functionality will be enabled by software and hardware enhancements.



Maturity: Emerging



Climbing the Slope Hybrid Electric Vehicles Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) refer to petrol or diesel powered engines with an electrically driven hybrid power plant that can switch between fuel and electric power.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Increasing costs of oil-derived fuels have made HEVs a viable option for some drivers.

User Advice: HEVs will develop a market of their own as consumers react to environmental pressures and rising fuel costs. However, consumers should be aware of potentially high replacement costs for electronics in HEVs.

Business Impact: Hybrid engines offer the ability to lower fossil fuel consumption.



Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Ford; Honda; Lexus; Nissan; Toyota

Portable Navigation Devices Analysis By: Jon Erensen

Definition: Portable navigation devices (PNDs) are handheld products that receive global positioning system (GPS) signals to determine location. Consumer PNDs are used in cars to provide turn-by-turn directions and location-based services. PNDs typically have 3- to 5-inch screens and include maps of a given region stored on internal hard drives or NAND flash memory.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 2007 was a breakout year for PNDs, with unit production reaching 33.9 million units — up 205% from 11.1 million units in 2006. Competition in this market has been intense, driving lower average selling prices (ASPs) and opening up the products to a larger audience. Some of this price decline can be attributed to falling component prices for LCD screens, NAND flash and other core application-specific standard products (ASSPs) found in PNDs, but competition has also hit the margins for PND vendors and across the entire supply chain for this product category PNDs provide a good out-of-the box experience and are generally straightforward to use.

User Advice: While the market for PNDs is currently strong, we expect competition to increase significantly from smartphones with built-in GPS capability. This class of phones typically has a 2.5-3.5-inch LCD screen which will allow them to be used effectively for turn-by-turn directions. In addition, the inherent wide-area networking (WAN) cellular connection in smartphones will also use local search capability and the ability to use floating car point data for live traffic services. This is a major advantage compared to unconnected PNDs, and vendors of the latter need to be aware of these trends and look to adding WAN capabilities to stay competitive.

Business Impact: GPS capabilities are being adopted in a wide variety of handheld consumer products. In addition to the robust market for the components to support these capabilities, location-based services will become a widespread opportunity for the vendors that supply GPS-enabled products.






Sample Vendors: Garmin; Magellan; TomTom

Bluetooth — Automotive Analysis By: Mike Williams; Stanley Bruederle

Definition: Bluetooth is a short-range wireless communication technology that enables connectivity between electronic devices and peripherals. A collection of Bluetooth profiles exists that permit the connection of a wide variety of peripherals to computers and phones.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: This maturing technology can be effective when used to connect peripherals such as headsets in cars. It also enables connectivity between portable mobile devices such as mobile phones, in-car entertainment systems and GPS navigation devices. Bluetooth technology has enabled cost-effective delivery of hands-free car kits to many car owners and drivers worldwide. Bluetooth technology is now being used for streaming digital music content from cell phones and portable MP3 players inside cars. Microsoft's Sync (Ford) and Blue&Me (Fiat) offer this feature for digital music streaming.

User Advice: Embedding Bluetooth capability during car manufacturing is still an expensive option. Most consumers prefer to install lower-cost Bluetooth car kits or Bluetooth earpieces/headsets available from aftermarket channels as a less expensive solution.

Business Impact: Bluetooth enables cost-effective implementation of wireless peripheral connectivity. In many applications, Bluetooth will compete with wired connectivity solutions such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' 1394/Universal Serial Bus (USB) interface connectivity technology.




Sample Vendors: Acura; Aisin Seiki; Audi; BMW; Continental; Delphi; Fiat Automobiles; Ford; Honda; Hyundai; Johnson Controls; Lexus; Nissan; Nokia; Parrot; Peiker acustic; PSA Peugeot Citroen; Renault; Saab; Toyota; Visteon; Volkswagen

Recommended Reading: "Bluetooth in Automobiles: A Reality Check"

GPS/Telematics Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: The term "GPS/telematics" refers to use of the Global Positioning System to provide navigational assistance and location-based services to vehicles (in emergencies, for example).

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The picture regarding GPS navigation in vehicles is somewhat fragmented, with a range of technological approaches. Also, whereas some GPS products are installed while vehicles are still in the factory, others are fitted later by dealers.



Telematic systems are starting to be used for consumer and fleet transport services. Automatic crash notification (ACN), in which emergency calls are triggered by an airbag system, is also emerging. In future, GPS navigation and telematics will enable fully autonomous vehicles.

User Advice: Sales of GPS navigation units have increased significantly since the introduction of low-cost, portable products. Although this technology is not yet installed in all new cars, it probably will be in the future.

Business Impact: GPS/telematics technology enables navigation and location-based services, and can improve driver and passenger safety through features such as ACN.




Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Delphi Automotive Systems; Denso; Ford; Garmin; General Motors; Nissan; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Volkswagen

Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Automotive GPS Navigation Market to Grow Strongly"

"Forecast: Automotive GPS Navigation Systems, Worldwide, 2000-2010"

Ultrasonic Parking Sensors Analysis By: Adriana Blanco

Definition: Ultrasonic parking sensors transmit ultrasonic pulses using a frequency of approximately 40kHz and measure the time it takes for the echo pulses to be reflected back from any obstacles.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Ultrasonic sensors for parking assistance have been popular with car buyers. These sensors have proved effective at ultra-close range (less than 1.5 meters) and are integrated in the vehicle's bumpers. The driver is given an acoustic or optical warning in the event of the vehicle approaching an obstacle. A typical parking system consists of an electronic control unit, a warning element and the ultrasonic sensors. On average, a vehicle has four sensors for the rear bumper and four to six sensors for the front bumper. Some vehicles have these sensors installed in the factory, but vehicle owners also buy them in the aftermarket.

User Advice: Ultrasonic sensors with an extended range of 2.5 meters enable parking space measurement and more automated parking assistance features, through which the system advises the driver on the steering required to complete the parking maneuver successfully.

Business Impact: Car manufacturers are offering parking systems as a convenience feature for driver assistance, which has been popular with car buyers. Future developments in the ultrasonic sensor range could be used in the implementation of pedestrian-safety systems.




Sample Vendors: Denso; Mitsubishi; Robert Bosch; Valeo



Media Oriented Systems Transport Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Media-Oriented Systems Transport (MOST) is a networking protocol for communicating data over plastic optical fiber and, more recently, extended to enable data communication over metal wire. It enables low-cost, point-to-point networks with low overheads and has been developed for in-car entertainment and "infotainment" applications.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: MOST has seen the use of plastic optical fiber technology in digital media (such as video, CD and DVD), content distribution and management around the car.

User Advice: MOST is now widely deployed in several new high-end European and Japanese cars, as the technology is already being deployed by German and Japanese automotive OEMs.

Business Impact: The effect of MOST has significantly improved the quality of audio and video entertainment in the car.




Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; Ford; General Motors; Honda; Lexus; Mercedes-Benz; Toyota; Volkswagen

Digital Radio Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Digital radio broadcasts via satellite or terrestrial broadcasting systems that deliver CD-quality audio sound and clarity.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Most media content is making a natural progression toward a digital format, so it is inevitable that radio transmission will migrate from analog formats to digital ones. Digital radio offers greater flexibility, quality and availability of service than analog radio systems.

User Advice: Three leading digital radio technologies in use globally are: WorldSpace satellite radio in western Asia, the Middle East and Africa; digital satellite radio in the United States; and digital audio broadcasting in Europe.

Business Impact: Incremental revenue-generating models could emerge from the availability of digital radio formats.




Sample Vendors: Alpine Electronics; Audiovox; Blaupunkt; Clarion; Continental Automotive Systems; Delphi; Eclipse; Goodmans; Grundig; JVC; Kenwood; Panasonic; Pioneer; Tivoli; US Electronics



ESP/ESC Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Electronic stability program (ESP)/electronic stability control (ESC) is an enhancement to anti-lock braking system (ABS) technology that focuses on dynamic control of vehicles.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: ESP/ESC was developed by OEMs in the automotive electronics industry to control vehicles in cases of oversteer and understeer.

User Advice: ESP/ESC is fitted to vehicles with an ABS. In coming years, the technology will be widely adopted in several kinds of ABS in many different types of vehicle.

Business Impact: ESP/ESC improves vehicle safety, especially by ensuring the best handling in emergency situations.




Sample Vendors: Bosch; Continental Teves; Denso

Entering the Plateau CAN/J1850 Analysis By: Mike Williams

Definition: Control area network (CAN) and J1850 are acclaimed as the de facto industry standard protocols for car electronics networking and multiplexing. CAN is a two-wire interface for data transmission rates of between 10 Kbps and 1 Mbps. The Society of Automotive Engineers' J1850 bus is used for diagnostics and data-sharing applications in vehicles. The J1850 bus has two varieties — a 41.6-Kbps pulse width modulated (PWM) two-wire differential approach, and a 10.4-Kbps variable pulse width (VPW) single-wire approach. The single-wire approach may have a bus length of up to 35 meters (with 32 nodes).

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: CAN and J1850 are well understood networking protocols for the automotive industry. They can be used for electronics applications for body, chassis, engine and driver information. CAN has emerged as the dominant protocol for automotive multiplexing applications. However, J1850 has been embraced more by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the Americas.

User Advice: CAN and J1850 are two platforms that provide industrywide support for in-vehicle networking applications. The benefit of automotive networking is the reduction of wiring harness and complexity, enhancing safety and reliability.

Business Impact: The CAN and J1850 platforms are the backbones for several automotive networking applications, on top of which new network communications platforms can be developed.


Market Penetration: More than 50% of target audience

Maturity: Mature mainstream



Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Ford; General Motors; Toyota; Volkswagen



Appendixes

Figure 3. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2007



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility



As of July 2007

CAN/J1850ESP/ESC


Remote Diagnostics

Hybrid Electric VehiclesBluetooth

Brake-by-Wire

Adaptive CruiseControl

Active Steering

42-Volt Net

HapticsHead-Up Displays

Night Vision Enhancement SystemsIntegrated Starter Alternator Damper

FlexRay

Rigid Disk Drives

Safe-by-Wire Plus


Biometric Ignition802.11p (DSRC)

802.11b/gHydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Autonomous Vehicle


Autosar

Fabric Sensors

Hydrogen Fuel (InternalCombustion Engines)

Radar Sensors

GPS/Telematics

Digital Radio


CMOS ImageSensors

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

time

visibility





As of July 2007

CAN/J1850ESP/ESC


Remote Diagnostics

Hybrid Electric VehiclesBluetooth

Brake-by-Wire

Adaptive CruiseControl

Active Steering

42-Volt Net

HapticsHead-Up Displays

Night Vision Enhancement SystemsIntegrated Starter Alternator Damper

FlexRay

Rigid Disk Drives

Safe-by-Wire Plus


Biometric Ignition802.11p (DSRC)

802.11b/gHydrogen (Fuel Cell)

Autonomous Vehicle


Autosar

Fabric Sensors

Hydrogen Fuel (InternalCombustion Engines)

Radar Sensors

GPS/Telematics

Digital Radio


CMOS ImageSensors




Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases

Phase Definition

Technology Trigger A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest.

Peak of Inflated Expectations During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers.

Trough of Disillusionment Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales.

Slope of Enlightenment Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process.

Plateau of Productivity The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the reduced level of risk; the rapid growth phase of adoption begins. Approximately 20% of the technology's target audience has adopted or is adopting the technology as it enters this phase.

Years to Mainstream Adoption The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity.


Table 2. Benefit Ratings

Benefit Rating Definition

Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics

High Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise

Moderate Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise



Benefit Rating Definition

Low Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings


Table 3. Maturity Levels

Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors

Embryonic • In labs • None

Emerging • Commercialization by vendors

• Pilots and deployments by industry leaders

• First generation • High price • Much customization

Adolescent • Maturing technology capabilities and process understanding

• Uptake beyond early adopters

• Second generation • Less customization

Early mainstream • Proven technology • Vendors, technology and

adoption rapidly evolving

• Third generation • More out of box • Methodologies

Mature mainstream • Robust technology • Not much evolution in

vendors or technology

• Several dominant vendors

Legacy • Not appropriate for new developments

• Cost of migration constrains replacement

• Maintenance revenue focus

Obsolete • Rarely used • Used/resale market only Source: Gartner (July 2008)

RECOMMENDED READING

"Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2008"

"Dataquest Insight: Top Electronic System Functions, 2007"

"Manufacturers Personalize Car Electronics to Tempt Buyers"

"Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"



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