hydrology for the environment, life and policy ( help ) goal to deliver social, economic and...

Real peopleReal catchmentsReal answersHELP

Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy

Hydrologyfor the Environment,

Life and Policy ( HELP )GOAL

To deliver social, economic and environmental benefit to stakeholders through sustainable and appropriate use of water by

directing hydrological science towards improved integrated catchment management

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Rising international concernRising international concern, e.g.UN ACC SWR 17th Session, Paris Oct. 1996BHS, Exeter, July 1998: request UNESCO/WMO consider 2nd IHD

UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec. 1998UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec. 1998 new policy-driven hydrological initiative needed

55thth Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb. 1999 Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb. 1999 HELP unanimously endorsed

WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999Terms of Reference for HELP Taskforce defined

First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov. 1999First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov. 199945 participants define the scope and nature of HELP

HELP: Background



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WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT?WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT?

hydrological research which is directly responsive to water-related

policy and development issues.

WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE?WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE?

a global network of experimental hydrological catchments in a range

of bio-climatic zones and socio-economic conditions freely exchanging

data and understanding

HOW WILL IT OPERATE?HOW WILL IT OPERATE? multi-disciplinary, involving mangers, policy makers and scientists “bottom up” selection of the science to be undertaken use existing networks where possible complementary to other water-related international programmes new data and knowledge, and capacity building, if required

HELP: The Essence



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BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”:BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”:

Water related observations will be collected in

large catchments. Not just physical measurements

(e.g. precipitation and river flow) but sociological,

economic, and legal data

BUILD A FRAMEWORK:BUILD A FRAMEWORK:

This will allow water law and policy experts, water

resources managers and water scientists to work

on water-related problems

FOCUS RESULTS:FOCUS RESULTS:

The involvement of stakeholders will produce

results that are directly beneficial to society’s needs

Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders

ideasresearch

understanding implementation

outputdesign

Isolated by lack ofproven utility

Isolated by legal and professional precedence

Acceptedpractices

HELP: Key Objectives

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Water and climateWater and climate

Water and foodWater and food

Water quality and human healthWater quality and human health

Water and the environmentWater and the environment

Water and conflictWater and conflict

HELP: Policy Issues

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0.0

0.1

0.2 DataTheory

Pro

ba

bil

ity

Value of variable

0.0

0.1

0.2

Pro

ba

bil

ity

Value of variable

TimeVa

lue

of

vari

ab

le

1. 1. Obtain observed time seriesObtain observed time series for a variablefor a variable (e.g. runoff) (e.g. runoff)

2. 2. Express data as a frequencyExpress data as a frequency of occurrence spectrumof occurrence spectrum

3. 3. Assume a “theoretical equation” forAssume a “theoretical equation” for spectrum, with unknown parametersspectrum, with unknown parameters

4. 4. Select "best" equation and optimizeSelect "best" equation and optimize the unknown parametersthe unknown parameters

5. 5. Use knowledge of selected "best“Use knowledge of selected "best“ equation to estimateequation to estimate e.g. One in 10-year 7-day-average low flow, Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves, 100-year flood, etc….



HELP: Hydrological Risks

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CURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICALCURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICALMANAGEMENT AND DESIGNMANAGEMENT AND DESIGN

The statistical properties of the hydrological variables:

do not change with time

are adequately sampled over a few decades

are entirely “random” in origin



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……based on outdated knowledge and technology

Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders

ideasresearch

understanding implementation

outputdesign

Isolated by lack of proven utility

Isolated by legal and professional precedence

Acceptedpractices

HELP: The Paradigm Lock



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Flood prediction:Flood prediction:

USAUSA: "Bulletin 17B": "Bulletin 17B" (USGS, Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1976/81/82) "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency“ [recommends use of the "log-Pearson Type 3" Distribution]

UKUK: "Flood Studies Report" : "Flood Studies Report" (National Environment Research Council, (National Environment Research Council, 19751975)) "Volume 1, Hydrological Studies" [recommends the "Generalized Extreme Value" Distribution

Rainfall Frequency SpectraRainfall Frequency Spectra: "TP- 40" : "TP- 40" ((US Weather BureauUS Weather Bureau, , 19611961))

"Rainfall Frequency Atlas for the US for Durations from 0.5- 24 hours and Return Periods of 1 -100 year."

Irrigation NeedsIrrigation Needs: "IDP 24" : "IDP 24" ((UN Food and Agriculture OrganisationUN Food and Agriculture Organisation, , 19771977))

"Crop Water Requirements"

HELP: Examples of Paradigm Lock



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100000

200000

60 90

0

1

2

0

100000

200000

30 60

0

1

2

Inflow(m 3 x 10 5 )

Time (Years)

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100000

200000

0 30 60 900

2

3

Inflow(m 3 x 10 5 )

0

100000

200000

Design Record Application Period

DamFailure

0

100000

200000Dam Full

Dam Empty

HELP: Dam Design/Management



Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998(From BAMS, 1999, 80, 1 - 48)

HELP: ENSO Rainfall Anomalies



Correlation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ differenceCorrelation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ difference(From Servain, J. Geophys. Res. 1991)

HELP: Atlantic SST and Rainfall



Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in10 Warm ENSO Years (1949-92)

Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in10 Cool ENSO Years (1949-92)

HELP: ENSO and Hurricanes



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ENSO Sea Surface Temperature (°C)

Rel

ativ

e S

tren

gth

of

All-

Ind

ia

M

on

soo

n R

ain

fall

(cm

)

0

-2 0 +1 +2-1

-100

-200

+100

HELP: ENSO-Monsoon Linkage



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0.2

0

Strength of Indian Rainfall Variations

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0.2

0

Strength of ENSO Variations

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

Per

cen

tag

e V

aria

nce

or

Co

vari

ance

0.2

0

Strength of Correlation between Indian Rainfall and ENSO

(Torrence and Webster 1997)

HELP: Decadal Variability



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HELP: Accelerating Water Cycle?



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Pro

bab

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Value of Variable

0.2

0.0Value of Variable

Time

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ue

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Var

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Observations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributionsObservations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributionse.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfalle.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfall

So far, only local and regional observations have beenSo far, only local and regional observations have beenused to sub-group frequency distributionsused to sub-group frequency distributions

But global variability indices could be used




Remotely Sensed Data

Re-analysis Data Sets

Internet-Based Transfer of

Data and Understanding

Aircraft & Shipsof Convenience

Catchment Monitoring

OceanBouys

HydologicalData Rescue

Global-HELP: The Global Interface

OceanBuoys



""How can knowledge, understanding, and predictiveHow can knowledge, understanding, and predictive modelingmodeling of the influence of the influence of global variability and of global variability and

changechange on hydrological variables on hydrological variables andandremotely sensed data be usedremotely sensed data be used to improve to improve

the management and design of water resourcethe management and design of water resource, , agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?" agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?"

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Global-HELP: Overarching Question



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How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data?How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data?

How significant is the relationship between the statistics of hydrological variables and observable global phenomena, and how does this change with location?

How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used?How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used?

How can remote data capture, and advanced information transfer technologies best be applied to improve the management and design of water systems?

Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used?Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used?

How can predictions of seasonal-to-interannual variations be used to improve the management of water?

How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used?How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used?

How significant are multi-decadal fluctuations in climate, and how can knowledge of such fluctuations be used to improve the design of water systems?

How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used?How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used?

What is the hydrological significance of anthropogenic climate change, and how can predictions of such change best be used to improve design of water systems?

Global-HELP: Subsidiary Questions



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HELP is founded on a global network of catchmentsHELP is founded on a global network of catchments

National/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusionNational/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusion

Catchments must:Catchments must: Provide an opportunity to study a water policy or management

issue for which hydrologic process studies are needed Agree to gather and openly share baseline physical and

relevant socio-economic-legal data within the network Commit to providing adequate and sustained local capacity to

further the programme

Benefits of inclusion are:Benefits of inclusion are: Access to new data acquisition and analysis methods Sharing of expertise Access to data from other HELP catchments Opportunities for funding and capacity building

HELP: How does it work?



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United KingdomUnited KingdomLowland Catchment Research (LOWCAR) and Catchment Hydrology and Sustainable Management (CHASM) catchments

JapanJapanYasu River basin (HELP steering committee established and project planning started)

Germany:Germany:Global change of the water cycle (GLOWA) catchment on the Danube with federal government funding

International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka)International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka)Existing water resource management catchments in Turkey, Asia and Africa

Other?Other?

HELP: Initial Activities



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International Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIENDInternational Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIENDExpand river flow understanding to the entire catchment water balance, including studies of water quality and social issues

World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership:World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership:HELP is a deliver mechanism for the “Framework for Action”

WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR)WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR)HELP will provide long-term, global, ground-based measurements to test large scale models and remote sensing techniques

IGBP:IGBP:Interaction through initiatives,“Water Cycle”, “Food and Fiber”:

GTOS/WYCOS:GTOS/WYCOS:Opportunities to interact constructively in global data collection

HELP: Relationships

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Water and Water and Water Quality Water and Water and Climate Food and Health Environment Conflict

HELP : Policy Issues

Global-HELP: Global Science Programs

WCRP IGBPGCTEBAHCGEWEX CLIVAR

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Water and Climate

HELP : Policy Issue

WCRPGEWEX CLIVAR

Global-HELP: WCRP Programs

COLLABORATINGCOLLABORATINGMECHANISMSMECHANISMS

1. JOINT RESEARCH

WCRP Focus: new understanding and

predictive products

HELP Focus:their potential use in catchment systems

3. Exchange of Data

4. Joint Scientific Meetings

4. Capacity Building in Developing Countries

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Global-HELP: WCRP Programs



OCEAN BASIN DYNAMICS (including ENSO)WORLD OCEAN CIRCULATIONSEA & LAND ICECOUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-ICE MODELS

SLOW Climate Processes

CL

IVA

RFAST Climate Processes

RADIATIONCLOUDRAIN & EVAPORATIONLAND SURFACE PROCESSESWEATHER & HYDROLOGIC PREDICTIONG

EW

EX

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Global-HELP: GEWEX Global Data



Radiation Water Vapor

Precipitation

Global-HELP: GEWEX CSEs



Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998“By 2005, to demonstrate

predictability in water resources on time scales

of seasonal to annual”

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ReservoirHELP/GEWEX CatchmentsReservoir HELP Catchments

Global-HELP: Extending Predictability

Global-HELP: GEWEX/CLIVAR Modeling



GEWEX and CLIVAR:Multi-member ensemble runs of high resolution, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models

HELP:Calibration of these mesoscale predictions against catchment-specific climatology

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Global-HELP: CLIVAR Linkage



··CLIVAR-GOALSCLIVAR-GOALS will develop new, predictable, oceanic “indexes”with statistical links to the hydrological variablesin individual HELP catchments that can be usedto benefit water management

CLIVAR-DecCenCLIVAR-DecCenwill provide documentation and understanding oflonger-term climatic variations in individual HELP catchments that can be used to refine the designcriteria for water systems

CLIVAR-ACCCLIVAR-ACCwill provide more credible and accurate predictions oflong-term anthropogenic change in the climate systemin individual HELP catchments that can be used to assess the vulnerability of current or proposed water systems

hydrology for the environment, life and policy ( help ) goal to deliver social, economic and...

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