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  • Hurricanes Last Season and NextJerry D. JarrellDirector National Hurricane Center

  • OutlineBrief Review of 1998 Season

    Major issues for 1999

    1999 Season

  • 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTERNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

  • SEASON HIGHLIGHTS14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5)10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES) $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE23 DEATHS IN THE U.S. 9684 TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH)

  • SEASON HIGHLIGHTSMITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER

    ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893

  • SEASON HIGHLIGHTSIN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYSFROM 8/19 TO 9/23TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED

    THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF 1995-1998 FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33)

  • Issues for 1999 (and beyond)

    Winds at Elevations

    Inland Flooding

    A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios

    Memory of History

    Disaster Resistant Homes

    Human Impact Scale

    Warning Lead Times

    Climate & Season Forecasts

  • Winds are Stronger Just above the SurfaceImplications forHigh Rise BuildingsHigh Terrain

  • Is the new big Hurricane Killing Agent Inland Flooding?

    Can We Forget about Storm Surge?

  • DeathsDeadliest TCs Since Camille 69US TC Deaths by Cause

  • Can the USA still have a Catastrophic Hurricane Event?Most likely Scenario(s)

  • U.S. Coastline Phase 1: Traffic jamPhase 2: Accident or other incidentPhase 3: The HurricaneCatastrophe Scenario 1.

  • Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys

  • The Key West Problem

    Catastrophe Scenario 2.Phase 1. Adequacy of Escape Routes QuestionedPhase 2. No Action to Fix Escape RoutesPhase 3. Fear Diminishes EvacuationPhase 4. The Hurricane Storm Surge

  • AP Photo

    FLEEING HURRICANE GEORGES IN KEY WEST

  • People Confuse Memory and HistoryWe Act not on History, but on Our Perception of History

  • Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricane Strikes

  • Chatham County, Georgia, 20 Years into Last Century

  • Disaster Resistant HomesWhat is it?Information?Are We Moving in the Right Direction?

  • Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida

  • The Human Impact ModelSaffir- Simpson Scale:A Success Story

  • Human Impact ModelMeteorologyDemographicsGeologyPreparednessInfrastructureBuilding CodesZoningCommunicationsetc.CasualtiesDisplacedHomelessDestroyed/Damaged: Buildings Bridges Hospitals

  • The Emergency Management Community needs Longer Lead Times for Preparation:

    We are Trying to Issue Hurricane Warnings Earlier

  • Hurricane Warnings

  • Is Climate Changing?

    What about 1999?

  • 1999 Forecast:

    Hurricane Season

    1 June to 30 November

    Be Prepared!

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