hurricane irene briefing 830 am wed aug 24, 2011 rob molleda national weather service miami/south...
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![Page 1: Hurricane Irene Briefing 830 AM Wed Aug 24, 2011 Rob Molleda National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062804/56649ee55503460f94bf542c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hurricane Irene Briefing830 AM Wed Aug 24, 2011
Rob Molleda
National Weather Service
Miami/South Florida
Forecast Office
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Early AM Satellite Image
Irene over SE Bahamas. Strengthened overnight with max sustained winds now 115 mph (Cat 3). Moving WNW 9 mph.
550 miles SE of South Florida
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5 AM NHC Forecast
Direct South Florida impact continues to become less likely.
Peripheral impacts possible Thursday and Thursday night, mainly coastal areas and offshore.
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Weather Pattern
HH
Gap between the highs
Troughs
Irene likely to follow edge of Atlantic High
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Forecast Pattern Thu PM
HForecast Steering Pattern Thu PM: Trough over Eastern U.S. reinforces steering to the north and northeast away from Florida.
X
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Model Guidance
Models in very good agreement on turn to NW and N
(NOTE: red line is not one of the reliable dynamical models).
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Hurrevac Fcst Wind Swath
Edge of Forecast Sustained TS wind field (assuming perfect forecast).
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Forecast Wind Field
On forecast track, Tropical Storm force winds remain 20-40 miles offshore at worst. However, an unexpected shift back to the west or a larger than forecast storm could bring sustained TS force winds to portions of SE FL coast Thursday afternoon.
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Graphical Cumulative TS Wind Speed
Probabilities
West Palm Beach: 29%Miami: 20%Naples: 8%These are ALL downward trends since last night.
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Forecast Wave Heights
Seas of 10-15 ft in Gulf Stream Thursday and Thursday night.
Rough surf and beach erosion likely, especially Palm Beach County.
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Potential Impacts
• Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Atlantic waters off SE Florida. No watches in effect for land areas.
• Main impacts will be coastal and marine.• Timing of impacts in Thursday to Thursday night
time frame.
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Potential Impacts
• Showers and occasional squalls beginning Thursday morning along SE FL coast and gradually shifting north through day and evening.
• SE Florida: Sustained winds 20-25 mph.
- Palm Beach: A few gusts to 40-45 mph near the coast.
- Broward and Miami-Dade: Gusts to 35 mph except a few gusts could reach 40 mph near the coast.
• Gulf coast will miss most of the rain, Lake Okeechobee area will likely see back edge of the rain with gusts to 30-35 mph possible.
• Rough surf and beach erosion expected, most notably in Palm Beaches.
• Rainfall no more than 1-2 inches through Friday morning. Only minor flood impacts at worst.
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Potential Wind Impact
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Potential Coastal Impact
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Questions?
Thank you for your time!
National Weather Service
Miami/South Florida Forecast Office