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COMMENTS TO SASB:
JULY 25, 2013
Human Capital Valuation and Reporting
Where Petroleum Reserves Reporting was 50 Years Ago
SEC Reporting Rules for PV 10 of Reserves is a Model for
a SASB PV Human Capital Reporting Recommendation
Gerald DeWolf Shaw CFA, President
EXECUTIVE MEMBER
DeWOLF RESEARCH CORPORATION INC. AND/OR THE INDIVIDUALS WHO PREPARED THIS PRESENTATION AND PROPOSAL (HEREAFTER “PRESENTATION”) DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, QUALITY, ADEQUACY, AVAILABILITY OR CONTENT OF ANY INFORMATION HEREIN. THE INFORMATION AND THE CONTENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, AND WITHOUT ANY REPRESENTATIONS, WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AND INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD-PARTY RIGHTS. NEITHER DeWOLF RESEARCH CORPORATION INC. OR ANY OTHER INFORMATION PROVIDER SHALL BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, WHETHER DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES (COLLECTIVELY “DAMAGES”), ARISING OUT OF, OR IN ANY WAY CONNECTED WITH THIS PRESENTATION OR INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OF REVENUE, TRADING LOSSES, POTENTIAL PROFITS, ERRORS, OR ACCURACY OF THE PRESENTATION.
DeWolf RESEARCH CORPORATION INC.
Molson Bank Building,
288 rue St-Jacques Street West, Third Floor,
Montreal, Province of Quebec, H2Y 1N1 CANADA
Telephone: +1 514 937 4184 E-mail: [email protected] m
Web: http://www.dewolfresearch.com
2
Human Capital Valuation today is similar to how oil reserves were valued by analysts in the 1960’s.
Timeline
1960’s Oil and Gas Reserves Reporting Begins in Annual Reports
• “Proven” and “Probable” gross or net barrels reserves by location, not
generally disclosed in annual reports; gross or net production was but the
PV of reserves was never disclosed
• CFO and Street analysts go back and forth to obtain economic life, rates of
production, costs, economic rent by jurisdiction for forecasting cash flows
• Street analysts then estimate the discounted PV of reserves at varying
discount rates and pricing assumptions to create estimated Net Asset
Values (NAV)
• Companies protested the notion of standardized reporting valuations of
reserves, citing competitive reasons.
1990’s SEC Standard: PV @ 10% proven reserves, flat pricing
1997 Canada’s Bre-X Scandal ($6 billion human capital fraud)
2003 Canada creates the National Instrument Standard
Oil and Gas reserves by location reported: PV 10%, Proven , proven
producing plus 50% of probable reserves; NI 51-101 standards
2009 SEC requires the same December 31
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Back to the Future: 1960 - 2012
EXAMPLE: Off balance sheet assets
Natural Resource Reserves Reporting and Valuation 1960-2012
Now a North American Reserves Reporting and Valuation Standard
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Adam Smith (1723-1790)
University of Glasgow
Wealth of Nations, Book II (1776) Four
types of capital: machines, buildings,
improvements to land and human
capital.
Gary Becker
University of Chicago
Nobel Price in Economics, 1992
Human Capital (1964) Investing in
education, training and medical
treatment is a function of the R of R on
human capital that one owns or
controls
James Tobin
Yale University
Nobel Price in Economics, 1981
Tobin’s Q (1969) Equity / Book Value to
measure management’s ability to create
value and higher returns beyond its
physical assets.
Theodore (Ted) Schultz,
University of Chicago
Nobel Price in Economics, 1979
Investment in Human Capital (1971)
The Role of Education and of Research
Why post War West Germany and
Japan thrived while the UK did not.
Claudia Golden
Harvard University
Understanding the Gender Gap (1992)
The new mobility and re-location
options caused “The Human Capital
Century”
History of Human Capital: 237 Years of Economic Thought
Human Capital and its value to an enterprise is the stock of knowledge
and talent embodied in people that effects their ability to perform labor
so as to both produce and in some cases to destroy economic
value of both the tangible and legal intangible assets of the enterprise.
Human Capital has either a positive or negative value depending
upon how well key persons known as Organizational Human Capital
use their talents to deploy the tangible assets of an enterprise to cause
the hard assets either superior or inferior operating, investing and
innovation capabilities.
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Defining Human Capital
Watson Wyatt’s Human Capital Indices (HCI), 2002
Companies with high HCI deliver more shareholder value
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A “trained and assembled workforce” which can be rented,
traded or exchanged is an intangible in an acquisition and
since 2001 is valued as an intangible asset based its on
going fair market value as a unit that produces a profit.
Loss of that unit’s key personnel would cause a business
unit loss of future earnings and trigger an impairment
test/loss, write down of goodwill.
But the hiring back of that key personnel/business unit
does not cause a human capital valuation write up.
But financial markets do revalue that Human Capital and
future SASB Disclosure must recommend its valuation.
Human Capital Valuation - FAS 141 142
Wall/Bay Street Analysts do not analyze
potential for human capital impairment risk
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XBRL by 2020: Intellectual Capital Valuation is Coming
A Human Capital Valuation: KPI Gap Needs to be Filled
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A. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT HC SCORECARDS (CANNOT BE STANDARDIZED OR VERIFIED HENCE SHOULD NOT FORM PART OF A NEW SASB STANDARD)
•the quality of leadership and professional talent
•expertise of key employees in deploying R & D and IT expenditures
•unique selling and marketing skill sets
•expertise and rankings within the industry
•professional standards (also misconduct) of key managers
•customer relationships, satisfaction and complaints
•reputation and experience of key managers
•advisory board members and directors’ skills in relation to their oversight
responsibilities
•professional awards or discipline
•prior period citations in professional journals of key employees
•disciplinary procedures
•decisions disclosed by a professional body regarding the chief external
auditor, chief legal counsel
•red flags from an internet search of key employees and managers
•criminal and civil background checks of key non executive employees
•prior period experience of management in success or failed exit strategies
•corporate work ethics, corporate culture
•the value of internal and external dispute resolution by-laws
•health of key employees,
•dealing with health and environmental issues of their core technologies
•anecdotal red flags
Never filed a Prospectus with OSC
But was listed on the TSE
No Gold/ Fraud
Little to No Board Expertise in Derivatives
Multiple Human Capital Failures
2007/8 1996/7
Good Talent Practice, highly regarded
for innovation but Bad /Crooked
Management, Accounting fraud.
2001
Negative Human Capital Value = Extraordinary Human Capital Risk
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B. PERIODIC RED FLAG HUMAN CAPITAL STRESS TESTS
Dr. Baruch Lev, NYU
1971: Present Value of Future Employment Earnings
According to the Lev & Schwartz model, the value of human capital embodied in a
person who is ‘y’ years old, is the present value of his/her future earnings from
employment and can be calculated by using the following formula:
E(Vy) = Σ Py(t+1) Σ I(T)/(I+R)t-y
where E (Vy) = expected value of a ‘y’ year old person’s human capital;T = the person’s
retirement age; Py (t) = probability of the person leaving the organization; I(t) =
expected earnings of the person in period I; R = discount rate
2001: Intangibles: Management, Measurement, and Reporting. Lev is regarded as
a founding father of FAS 141, 142 accounting reforms for Intangibles
2003: Knowledge Capital Scorecard
2004: Organizational Human Capital Valuation
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C. QUANTITATIVE HUMAN CAPITAL VALUATION Lev & Schwartz Human Capital Accounting Model (1971)
Organization First Year Reported Model Used Discount Rate
BHEL 1973 – 74 Lev & Schwartz 12%
SAIL 1983 – 84 Lev & Schwartz
(modified)
14%
MMTC 1982 – 83 Lev & Schwartz 12%
ONGC 1981 – 82 Lev & Schwartz 12.25%
NTPC 1984 – 85 Lev & Schwartz 12%
INFOSYS 1995 Lev & Schwartz 12.96%
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Human Capital Valuation Reporting Began in 1973
Examples of Reporting & Valuing Human Capital in India
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"SPECIMEN" RESOURCES INC.
Human Capital Evaluation
Modified Lev & Schwartz Human Capital Accounting Model (all figures in $C '000)
DCF Assumptions
WACC 12.0%
Growth 2009-2013 3.0%
Free cash flow buildup
Projected Annual Forecast
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
Case A
Compensation $ 1,904 $ 1,700 $ 1,751 $ 1,804 $ 1,858
Present value of Compensation $ 2,132 $ 1,700 $ 1,563 $ 1,438 $ 1,322 $ 8,156
Case B
Compensation $ 1,700 $ 1,751 $ 1,804 $ 1,858 $ 1,913
Present value of Compensation $ 1,700 $ 1,563 $ 1,438 $ 1,322 $ 1,216 $ 7,239
PV - Future Compensation (5 Years)
Case A Case B
WACC of 10.0% $ 8,272 $ 7,485
12.0% $ 8,156 $ 7,239
15.0% $ 7,997 $ 6,902
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Example of a DeWolf Research Human Capital Opinion Letter
HUMAN CAPITAL EVALUATION SERVICE™ Molson's Bank Building,
288 rue St-Jacques Street West, Third Floor,
Montreal, Province of Quebec, H2Y 1N1
CANADA
EAST COAST ENERGY INC.
HUMAN CAPITAL VALUATION: SUMMARY &
OPINION LETTER
We have reviewed the information which has been provided to
us by East Coast Energy Inc., (hereafter “East Coast”) in
response to the DeWolf Research Human Capital Valuation
Quantitative and Qualitative Questionnaires and where
possible, we have verified all quantitative information to be true
and correct.
We are of the opinion that the Qualitative Questionnaire
responses provided to us are a reasonable representation of
East Coast’s use of its human capital resources.
We have calculated a present value for East Coast Human
Capital Resources, employing the DeWolf Research Modified
Lev and Schwartz Compensation Model, for the key
employees, advisors and consultants of East Coast, with
assumptions, as provided to the company.
1. It is our opinion, that a correct range of present
values for East Coast’s Human Capital
Resources as at September 30, 2009 is between
$C 1.461 million and $C 1.804, using a range
of weight average cost of capital discount rates
from between 10% and 20%.
2. As a start-up, we assess East Coast’s Human
Capital Risk Assessment (HCRA) to be LOW with
a HCRA outlook being POSTIVE.
3. In our opinion, a fair value of $C 1.461 million is
the appropriate Baseline Human Capital Value for
East Coast, as at September 30, 2009, or an
amount of $C 0.21 per fully diluted common
share of East Coast.
The Baseline Human Capital Value is provided for East Coast’s
use going forward for the analysis of East Coast’s
futureHuman Capital Valuation Key Performance
Indicators(KPIs) and Quarterly Statistical Updates and
Performance Ratios, to be provided as per the
1. DeWolf Research HUMAN CAPITAL
EVALUATION SERVICE™ Services and
Confidentiality Agreement, as agreed to and
established on September 24, 2009.
2. DeWolf Research has conducted seven
ORGANIZATIONAL HUMAN CAPITAL STRESS
TESTS to test for RED, YELLOW and GREEN
flags at East Coast.
3. We conclude that there exists no Organizational
Human Capital RED Flags as defined for as
defined in our report to East Coast as at
September 30, 2009.
DeWolf Research is a Professional Member of the Human
Capital Institute, Washington D.C.
This is to certify and to solemnly declare that this opinion and
attached valuation was prepared by Gerald DeWolf Shaw CFA,
[Charter No. 4944] President, DeWolf Research Corporation
Inc., a Canadian corporation, and independent research and
consulting practice and that the attached Baseline Human
Capital Valuation Report with Organizational Human Capital
Stress Tests fully complies with all aspects of the CFA
Institute’s Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional
Conduct, CFA Institute, Charlottesville, Commonwealth of
Virginia.
Certified at Montreal, in the Province of Quebec on this the
11th day of October 2009.
Gerald DeWolf Shaw CFA
Professional Member
Telephone: +1 514 937 4184
DeWolf Research Corporation Inc.
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.dewolfresearch.com
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Since 2001 FAS 141 142 forces an HCV impairment test for acquisitions
Wall/Bay Street analysts and investors historically value Legal Intangibles yet ignore Human
Intangibles; that is changing, because HCV provides new ways to help finance small knowledge
based companies
Human Capital Valuation Reporting is where oil and gas reserves reporting was 50 years ago;
HCV’s create new KPI ratios for securities’ analysts and investors for valuation
Imagine actual and forecasted: HCV/CF HCV/BV HCV/Debt HCV/Equity HVC/NAV
Imagine your HCV Baseline Value, Quarterly Risk Assessment with Stress Tests Red Flag Screens
In time real time HCV’s will be charted like stock prices to reflect HCV expectations; Human
Capital Funds; Human Capital Rating Agencies
FOR JUNIOR OIL AND GAS COMPANIES WITH NO PROVEN RESERVES, HCV CAN BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THE RAISING OF CAPITAL: AFTER ALL HUMAN CAPITAL IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT ASSET OF A BUSINESS
TAKE AWAY: DOING CAPITALISM BETTER: HCV + NAV = CIV
Human Capital Evaluation (HCV) & Investment Research
Metrics now exist for Periodic, Reliable, Objective and Valid HCV Standards
HCV, HC Risk Assessment and HC Stress Tests have arrived in North America
HCV and HC Key Performance Indicators (KPI) ratios: Future Human Capital
Funds
THANK YOU! MERCI!
DeWolf Research Corporation Inc. Molson Bank Building,
288 rue St-Jacques Street West, Third Floor,
Montreal, Province of Quebec, H2Y 1N1
CANADA
Telephone: +1 514 937 4184
E-mail: [email protected]
www.dewolfresearch.com 22