hua, min xie, yiqing -...

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

• Hua, Min• Xie, Yiqing

LECTURE 10 EXCHANGE RATES AND THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

• In t roduct ion• Exchange Rate Bas ics• Exchange Rate Reg imes• Fore ign Exchange Market• Two Key Market Mechani sms :

Arb i t rage and Expectat ions

• International macroeconomics is devoted to the study of large-scale economic problems in interdependent economies. (Why is it called “International Macroeconomics?”)

• Unique features of international macroeconomics can be reduced to three key elements: • The world has many monies (not one)• Countries are financially integrated (not isolated)• In this context economic policy choices are made (but not

always very well)

INTRODUCTION

• A complete understanding of how a country’s economy works requires that we study the exchange rate, the price of foreign currency.Ex: on Aug.12, 2011 1 euro=1.4239 $

on Jan. 12, 2011 1 euro=1.2978 $(Data resource: www.federalreserve.gov)

• Because products and investments move across borders, fluctuations in exchange rates have significant effects on the relative prices of home and foreign goods (such as autos and clothing), services (such as insurance and tourism), and assets (such as equities and bonds).

Question: when is the good time to travel to Europe?

INTRODUCTION

How Exchange Rates BehaveINTRODUCTION

Changes in exchange rates affect an economy in two ways:■ Changes in exchange rates cause a change in the

international relative prices of goods. That is, one country’s goods and services become more or less expensive relative to another’s when expressed in a common unit of currency.

■ Changes in exchange rates can cause a change in the international relative prices of assets. These fluctuations in wealth can then affect firms, governments, and individuals.Ex: dollar depreciation vs. U.S. debt

Why Exchange Rates MatterINTRODUCTION

• In an exchange rate crisis a currency experiences a sudden and pronounced loss of value against another currency following a period in which the exchange rate had been fixed or relatively stable.

• Governments in crisis may appeal for external help from international development organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or World Bank, or other countries.

When Exchange Rates Misbehave

INTRODUCTION

Currency Crashes The chart shows that exchange rate crises are common events.

INTRODUCTION

1 EXCHANGE RATE ESSENTIALS• An exchange rate (E) is the price of some foreign

currency expressed in terms of a home (or domestic) currency.

• Because an exchange rate is the relative price of two currencies, it may be quoted in either of two ways:1. The number of home currency units that can be

exchanged for one unit of foreign currency.Ex. 1 euro=1.42 dollar

2. The number of foreign currency units that can be exchanged for one unit of home currency.Ex. 1 dollar=0.70 euro

• Knowing the format in which exchange rates are quoted is essential to avoid confusion, so we now establish a systematic rule, even if it is arbitrary.

• To avoid confusion, we must specify which country is the home country and which is foreign.

• Throughout the remaining lectures, when we refer to a particular country’s exchange rate, we will quote it in terms of units of home currency per units of foreign currency. Ex. 1 euro = 1.42 dollar $/€

Defining the Exchange Rate

1 EXCHANGE RATE ESSENTIALS

Exchange Rate Quotations This table shows major exchange rates as they might appear in the financial media. Columns (1) to (3) show rates on June 30, 2010. For comparison, columns (4) to (6) show rates on June 30, 2009. For example, column (1) shows that on June 30, 2010, one U.S. dollar was worth 1.063 Canadian dollars, 6.081 Danish krone, 0.816 euros, and so on. The euro-dollar rates appear in bold type.

E$/€ = 1.225 = U.S. exchange rate (American terms)

E€/$ = 0.816 = Euro-zone exchange rate (European terms) 1 =€/$

$/€ EE 1.225 =

10.816


• If one currency buys more of another currency, we say it has experienced an appreciation – its value has risen, appreciated or strengthened.

• If a currency buys less of another currency, we say it has experienced a depreciation – its value has fallen, depreciated, or weakened.

Appreciations and Depreciations


In U.S. terms, the following holds true: When the U.S. exchange rate E$/€ rises, more dollars

are needed to buy one euro. The price of one euro goes up in dollar terms, and the U.S. dollar experiences a depreciation.

When the U.S. exchange rate E$/€ falls, fewer dollars are needed to buy one euro. The price of one euro goes down in dollar terms, and the U.S. dollar experiences an appreciation.Ex.: E$/€, t =$1.3, E$/€, t+1 =$1.4change Δ E$/€, t =1.4-1.3=$0.1percentage change Δ E$/€, t / E$/€, t =0.1/1.3=7.69%the euro appreciated against the dollar by 7.69%



Similarly, in European terms, the following holds true: When the Eurozone exchange rate E€/$ rises, the price of

one dollar goes up in euro terms and the euro experiences a depreciation.

When the Eurozone exchange rate E€/$ falls, the price of one dollar goes down in euro terms and the euro experiences an appreciation.Ex.: E€/$ , t = € 0.77, E€/$ , t+1 = € 0.71change Δ E€/$ , t =0.71-0.77= €-0.06percentage change Δ E€/$ , t / E€/$ , t =-0.06/0.77=-7.79%the dollar depreciated against the euro by 7.79%



Example: Using Exchange Rates to Compare Prices in a Common Currency

Changes in the exchange rate cause changes in prices of foreign goods expressed in the home currency.

Changes in the exchange rate cause changes in the relative prices of goods produced in the home and foreign countries.

When the home country’s exchange rate depreciates, home exports become less expensive as imports to foreigners, and foreign exports become more expensive as imports to home residents.

When the home country’s exchange rate appreciates, home export goods become more expensive as imports to foreigners, and foreign export goods become less expensive as imports to home residents.


2 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

Economists group different patterns of exchange rate behavior into categories known as exchange rate regimes.

There are two major regime types –fixed and flexible.

Exchange Rate Regimes: Fixed Versus Floating

Exchange Rate Regimes: Fixed Versus Floating■ Fixed (or pegged) exchange rate regimes are those in which a country’s exchange rate fluctuates in a narrow range (or not at all) against some base currency over a sustained period, usually a year or longer. A country’s exchange rate can remain rigidly fixed for long periods only if the government intervenes in the foreign exchange market in one or both countries.

■ Floating (or flexible) exchange rate regimes are those in which a country’s exchange rate fluctuates in a wider range, and the government makes no attempt to fix it against any base currency. Appreciations and depreciations may occur from year to year, each month, by the day, or every minute.

2 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

APPLICATIONRecent Exchange Rate ExperiencesEvidence from Developed Countries • The U.S. dollar is in a floating relationship with the

yen, the pound, and the Canadian dollar (or loonie).• The U.S. dollar is subject to a great deal of volatility

because it is in a floating regime, or free float.• The Danish krone provides a contrast—an example of

a fixed exchange rate in a developed country. There is only a tiny variation around this rate, no more than plus or minus 2%. This type of fixed regime is known as a band.

APPLICATION

Exchange Rate Behavior: Selected Developed Countries, 1996–2010This figure shows exchange rates of three currencies against the U.S. dollar and three against the euro. The euro rates begin in 1999 when the currency was introduced. The yen, pound, and Canadian dollar all float against the U.S. dollar. The pound and yen float against the euro. The Danish krone is fixed against the euro. The vertical scale ranges by a factor of 2 on all charts.

APPLICATION

Exchange Rate Behavior: Selected Developed Countries, 1996–2010 (continued)This figure shows exchange rates of three currencies against the U.S. dollar and three against the euro. The euro rates begin in 1999 when the currency was introduced. The yen, pound, and Canadian dollar all float against the U.S. dollar. The pound and yen float against the euro. The Danish krone is fixed against the euro. The vertical scale ranges by a factor of 2 on all charts.

APPLICATION

Evidence from Developing Countries Exchange rates in developing countries can be much more volatile than those in developed countries.• India is an example of a middle ground, somewhere

between a fixed rate and a free float, called a managed float (also known as dirty float, or a policy of limited flexibility.

• Dramatic depreciations, such as those of Thailand and South Korea in 1997, are called exchange rate crisesand they are more common in developing countries than in developed countries.

Recent Exchange Rate Experiences

APPLICATION

Selected Developing Countries, 1996–2010Exchange rates in developing countries show a wide variety of experiences and greater volatility. Pegging is common but is punctuated by periodic crises (you can see the effects of these crises in graphs for Thailand, South Korea, and Argentina). Rates that are unpegged may show some flexibility (India). Some rates crawl gradually (Colombia). Dollarization can occur (Ecuador). The vertical scale ranges by a factor of 3 on these charts.

APPLICATION

Evidence from Developing Countries Exchange rates in Latin American countries are even more volatile.• Colombia presents an example of a different kind of

fixed exchange rate. Here the authorities did not target the level of the Colombian peso but allowed it to steadily depreciate at an almost constant rate for several years from 1996 to 2002.

• This type of fixed arrangement is called a crawl (if the exchange rate follows a simple trend, it is a crawling peg; if some variation about the trend is allowed, it is termed a crawling band).


APPLICATION

Selected Developing Countries, 1996–2010 (continued)Exchange rates in developing countries show a wide variety of experiences and greater volatility. Pegging is common but is punctuated by periodic crises (you can see the effects of these crises in graphs for Thailand, South Korea, and Argentina). Rates that are unpegged may show some flexibility (India). Some rates crawl gradually (Colombia). Dollarization can occur (Ecuador). The vertical scale ranges by a factor of 10 on these charts.

APPLICATION

Currency Unions and DollarizationUnder a currency union (or monetary union), there is some form of transnational structure such as a single central bank or monetary authority that is accountable to the member nations. The most prominent example of a currency union is the Eurozone.Under dollarization one country unilaterally adopts the currency of another country. The reasons for this choice can vary. A small size, poor record of managing monetary affairs, or if people simply stop using the national currency and switch en masse to an alternative.


APPLICATION

Exchange Rate Regimes of the WorldThe following figure shows an IMF classification of exchange rate regimes around the world, which allows us to see the prevalence of different regime types across the whole spectrum from fixed to floating.The classification covers 192 economies for the year 2008, and regimes are ordered from the most rigidly fixed to the most freely floating.Seven countries use an ultra-hard peg called a currency board, a type of fixed regime that has special legal and procedural rules designed to make the peg “harder”—that is, more durable. ■


APPLICATION

A Spectrum of Exchange Rate Regimes The chart shows a recent classification of exchange rate regimes around the world.

APPLICATION

A Spectrum of Exchange Rate Regimes (continued) The chart shows a recent classification of exchange rate regimes around the world.

3 THE MARKET FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Day by day, and minute by minute, exchange rates the world over are set in the foreign exchange market (or forex or FX market), which, like any market, is a collection of private individuals, corporations, and some public institutions that buy and sell.

3 THE MARKET FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE• The forex market is not an organized exchange: trade is

conducted “over the counter.”• The forex market is massive and has grown

dramatically in recent years.• In April 2007, the global forex market traded, $3,210

billion per day in currency.• The three major foreign exchange centers are located in

the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan.• Other important centers for forex trade include Hong

Kong, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and Zurich.• Thanks to time-zone differences, there is not a moment

in the day when foreign exchange is not being traded somewhere in the world.


• The simplest forex transaction is a contract for the immediate exchange of one currency for another between two parties. This is known as a spot contract.

• The exchange rate for this transaction is often called the spot exchange rate.

• In this book, the use of the term “exchange rate” always refers to the spot rate.

• Technology today reduces the risk of one party failing to deliver on its side of the transaction (default risk or settlement risk) is essentially zero.

• The spot contract is the most common type of trade and appears in almost 90% of all forex transactions.

The Spot Contract


• The difference between the “buy at” and “sell for” prices is called the spread. The spread is smaller for larger transactions.

• Spreads are an important example of market frictions or transaction costs. These frictions create a wedge between the price paid by the buyer and the price received by the seller.

• Spreads are potentially important for any microeconomic analysis of the forex market, but for most macroeconomic analyses the assumption is that transaction-cost spreads in markets are low and can be ignored.

Transaction Costs

3 THE MARKET FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGEDerivatives

Spot and Forward Rates The chart shows the U.S. spot and three-month forward exchange rates for the euro in dollars per euro in the year 2008. The spot and forward rates closely track each other.


• In addition to the spot contract there are many other related forex contracts, including forwards, swaps, futures, and options. Collectively, all these related forex contracts are termed derivatives.

• The forex derivatives market is small relative to the entire global forex market.

Derivatives

APPLICATIONForeign Exchange DerivativesThere are many derivative contracts in the foreign exchange market, of which the following are the most common.Forwards A forward contract differs from a spot contract in that the two parties make the contract today, but the settlement date for the delivery of the currencies is in the future, or forward. The time to delivery, or maturity, varies. However, because the price is fixed as of today, the contract carries no risk.Swaps A swap contract combines a spot sale of foreign currency with a forward repurchase of the same currency. This is a common contract for counterparties dealing in the same currency pair over and over again. Combining two transactions reduces transactions costs.

APPLICATIONForeign Exchange DerivativesFutures A futures contract is a promise that the two parties holding the contract will deliver currencies to each other at some future date at a prespecified exchange rate, just like a forward contract. Unlike the forward contract, however, futures contracts are standardized, mature at certain regular dates, and can be traded on an organized futures exchange. Options An option provides one party, the buyer, with the right to buy (call) or sell (put) a currency in exchange for another at a prespecified exchange rate at a future date. The buyer is under no obligation to trade and, in particular, will not exercise the option if the spot price on the expiration date turns out to be more favorable.

APPLICATIONForeign Exchange DerivativesDerivatives allow investors to engage in hedging (risk avoidance) and speculation (risk taking).■ Example 1: Hedging. As chief financial officer of a U.S.

firm, you expect to receive payment of €1 million in 90 days for exports to France. The current spot rate is $1.20 per euro. Your firm will incur losses on the deal if the dollar weakens to less than $1.10 per euro. You advise that the firm buy €1 million in call options on dollars at a rate of $1.15 per euro, ensuring that the firm’s euro receipts will sell for at least this rate. This locks in a minimal profit even if the spot rate falls below $1.15. This is hedging.

APPLICATIONForeign Exchange DerivativesDerivatives allow investors to engage in hedging (risk avoidance) and speculation (risk taking).■ Example 2: Speculation. The market currently prices one-

year euro futures at $1.30, but you think the dollar will weaken to $1.43 in the next 12 months. If you wish to make a bet, you would buy these futures, and if you are proved right, you will realize a 10% profit. Any level above $1.30 will generate a profit. If the euro is at or below $1.30 a year from now, however, your investment in futures will be a total loss. This is speculation. ■


• The key actors in the forex market are the traders. Most forex traders work for commercial banks.

• Interbank trading is highly concentrated: about three-quarters of all forex market transactions globally are handled by just ten banks.

• The vast majority of forex transactions are profit-driven interbank trades, and it is the exchange rates for these trades that underlie quoted market exchange rates.

• Some corporations may trade in the market if they are engaged in extensive transactions either to buy inputs or sell products in foreign markets. Similarly, some nonbank financial institutions such as mutual fund companies may favor setting up their own foreign exchange trading operations.

Private Actors


• A government may try to completely control the market by preventing its free operation, by restricting trading or movement of forex, or by allowing the trading of forex only through government channels. Policies of this kind are a form of capital control, a restriction on cross-border financial transactions.

• The government may set up an official market for foreign exchange and issue a law requiring people to buy and sell in that market at officially set rates. But illicit dealings can persist “on the street” in black markets or parallel markets where individuals may trade at exchange rates determined by market forces.

Government Actions


• A less drastic action taken by the authorities is to let the private market for foreign exchange function but to fix or control forex prices in the market through intervention, a job typically given to a nation’s central bank.

• To maintain a fixed exchange rate, the central bank must stand ready to buy or sell its own currency, in exchange for the base foreign currency, at a fixed price.

• In practice, keeping some foreign currency reserves may be costly and uncertain, as resources are tied up in foreign currency and reserves may run out.

Government Actions

4 ARBITRAGE AND SPOT EXCHANGE RATES

• The most basic of activities pursued by private actors in any market is arbitrage, a trading strategy that exploits any profit opportunities arising from price differences.

• In the simplest terms, arbitrage means to buy low and sell high. If such profit opportunities exist in a market, then it is considered to be out of equilibrium. If no such profit opportunities exist, there will be no arbitrage; the market is in equilibrium and satisfies a no-arbitrage condition.


Arbitrage and Spot Rates Arbitrage ensures that the trade of currencies in New York along the path AB occurs at the same exchange rate as via London along path ACDB. At B the pounds received must be the same. Regardless of the route taken to get to B, .London

/$ N.Y.

/$ LL EE


• There are 160 distinct currencies in the world at the time of this writing. However, the vast majority of the world’s currencies trade directly with only one or two of the major currencies, such as the dollar, euro, yen, or pound, and perhaps a few other currencies from neighboring countries.

• Many countries do a lot of business in major currencies such as the U.S. dollar, so individuals always have the option to engage in a triangular trade at the cross rate.

• When a third currency, such as the U.S. dollar, is used in these transactions, it is called a vehicle currency because it is not the home currency of either of the parties involved in the trade and is just used for intermediation.

Cross Rates and Vehicle Currencies

5 ARBITRAGE AND INTEREST RATES• An important question for investors is in which currency

they should hold their liquid cash balances.• Would selling euro deposits and buying dollar deposits

make a profit for a banker? Decisions like these drive the demand for dollars versus euros and the exchange rate between the two currencies.

• The Problem of Risk A trader in New York, and her bank care about returns in U.S. dollars. A dollar deposit pays a known return, in dollars. But a euro deposit pays a return in euros, and one year from now we cannot know for sure what the dollar-euro exchange rate will be.

• Riskless arbitrage and risky arbitrage lead to two important implications, called parity conditions.

5 ARBITRAGE AND INTEREST RATES

• Suppose that contracts to exchange euros for dollars in one year’s time carry an exchange rate of F$/ € dollars per euro. This is known as the forward exchange rate.

• If you invest in a dollar deposit, your $1 placed in a U.S. bank account will be worth (1 + i$) dollars in one year’s time. The dollar value of principal and interest for the U.S. dollar bank deposit is called the dollar return.

• If you invest in a euro deposit, you first need to convert the dollar to euros. Using the spot exchange rate, $1 buys 1/E $/ € euros today. These 1/E $/ € euros would be placed in a euro account earning i €, so in a year’s time they would be worth (1 + i €)/E$/ € euros.

Riskless Arbitrage: Covered Interest Parity


• To avoid that risk, you engage in a forward contract today to make the future transaction at a forward rate F$/€. The (1 + i €)/E$/€ euros you will have in one year’s time can then be exchanged for (1 + i €)F$/ €/E$/ € dollars, or the dollar return on the euro bank deposit.

Riskless Arbitrage: Covered Interest Parity

deposits euroon return Dollar

€/$

€/$€

depositsdollar on return Dollar

$ 11EF

ii

• This expression is called covered interest parity (CIP) because all exchange rate risk on the euro side has been “covered” by use of the forward contract. We say that such a trade employs forward cover.

Arbitrage and Covered Interest Parity Under CIP, returns to holding dollar deposits accruing interest going along the path AB must equal the returns from investing in euros going along the path ACDB with risk removed by use of a forward contract. Hence, at B, the riskless payoff must be the same on both paths, and

. €€/$

€/$$ 11 i

EF

i


APPLICATIONEvidence on Covered Interest Parity

Financial Liberalization and Covered Interest Parity: Arbitrage between the United Kingdom and Germany After financial liberalization, these profits essentially vanished, and no arbitrage opportunities remained. The CIP condition held, aside from small deviations resulting from transactions costs and measurement errors.


In this case, traders face exchange rate risk and must make a forecast of the future spot rate. We refer to the forecast as

, which we call the expected exchange rate. Based on the forecast, you expect that the euros you will have in one year’s time will be worth when converted into dollars; this is the expected dollar return on euro deposits, that is, the expected dollar value of principal and interest for euro deposits.The expression for uncover interest rate parity (UIP) is:

Risky Arbitrage: Uncovered Interest Parity

eE $/€

$/€€ /)1( Ei$/€ $/€€ //)1( EEi e

deposits euroon returndollar Expected

€/$

€/$€

depositsdollar onreturn Dollar

$ 11EE

iie

Arbitrage and Uncovered Interest Parity Under CIP, returns to holding dollar deposits accruing interest going along the path AB must equal returns from investing in euros going along the risky path ACDB. Hence, at B, the expected payoff must be the same on both paths, and

. €

€/$

€/$$ 11 i

EE

ie



What Determines the Spot Rate?Uncovered interest parity is a no-arbitrage condition that describes a equilibrium in which investors are indifferent between the returns on unhedged interest-bearing bank deposits in two currencies (where forward contracts are not employed).We can rearrange the terms in the uncovered interest parity expression to solve for the spot rate:

Risky Arbitrage: Uncovered Interest Parity

$

€ €/$€/$ 11

ii

EE e

APPLICATIONEvidence on Uncovered Interest Parity• Dividing the UIP by the CIP, we obtain , or

. Thus, we see that although the expected future spot rate and the forward rate are used in two different forms of arbitrage—risky and riskless, in equilibrium they should not differ at all; they should be exactly the same!

• If both covered interest parity and uncovered interest parity hold, the forward must equal the expected future spot rate. Investors have no reason to prefer to avoid risk by using the forward rate, or to embrace risk by awaiting the future spot rate.

€/$€/$ /1 FE e€/$€/$ FE e

APPLICATIONEvidence on Uncovered Interest Parity• If the forward rate equals the expected spot rate, then

the expected rate of depreciation (between today and the future period) equals the forward premium (the proportional difference between the forward and spot rates):

• While the left-hand side is easily observed, the expectations on the right-hand side are typically unobserved.

ondepreciati of rate Expected

€/$

€/$

premium Forward

€/$

€/$ 11 EE

EF e

APPLICATIONEvidence on Uncovered Interest Parity

Evidence on Interest ParityWhen UIP and CIP hold, the

12-month forward premium should equal the 12-month expected rate of depreciation. A scatterplot showing these two variables should be close to the diagonal 45-degree line. Using evidence from surveys of individual forex traders’ expectations over the period 1988 to 1993, UIP finds some support, as the line of best fit is close to the diagonal.


• The UIP approximation equation says that the home interest rate equals the foreign interest rate plus the expected rate of depreciation of the home currency.• For example, suppose the dollar interest rate is 4% per year and

the euro interest rate 3% per year. If UIP is to hold, then the expected rate of dollar depreciation over a year must be 1%. The total dollar return on the euro deposit is approximately equal to the 4% that is offered by dollar deposits.

Uncovered Interest Parity: A Useful Approximation

deposits euroon return of ratedollar Expected

dollar theofondepreciati of rate Expected

€/$

€/$

deposits euroon rateInterest

€

depositsdollar on return of rateDollar

=depositsdollar on

rateInterest

$ EE

iie

hua, min xie, yiqing -...

Documents