howard rogers
TRANSCRIPT
Howard RogersHead of Fundamental AnalysisBP Gas Power & Renewables
The Evolution of the European LNG Market
2
Europe: future supplies - Indigenous & Adjacent
Norway
Algeria
Netherlands
UK
Germany
Italy
Denmark
Libya
Supply from Indigenous & Adjacent Sources
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
bcm
a
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Libya
Algeria
Norway
UK
NethelandsIndigenous otherDemand
Source: Industry Estimates
3
Europe: future supplies - Further Afield
Russia
Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan
LNG
Algeria, Qatar, Iran, UAE LNG
LNG
Russia
4th corridor
NB – Relative flows uncertain.
Outcome will be a combination of these supply sources with LNG increasingly in a position to supplement pipeline supply to the European market.
Share of Global Reserves
Rest of World
Algeria, Qatar, Iran, UAE LNG
Russia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
bcm
a
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
us other
Pipeline
(NABUCCO)
Source: Industry Estimates
4
World LNG Trade Flows – 2010 +
Trinidad
S. America
Norway
Sakhalin
S.E. Asia
Australia
Middle East
EgyptAlgeria
West Africa
Angola
Russia
Increased scale, flexibility, scope for global reach and optimisation
5
North America – Atlantic Re-Gas Status
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020
BC
FD
Speculative
Under Consideration
In Development
Existing
Source: FERC & Industry Estimates
6
European Re-Gas Status
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2010 2015 2020
BC
FD
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Portugal
Belgium
France
Spain
UK
Speculative
Under Consideration
In Development
Existing
Source: Industry Estimates
7
LNG trade-flow to grow strongly in Atlantic Basin – subject to timely infrastructure build – but this increasingly likely.
Provides Europe with supply diversity.
Allows prices to reach levels where demand is stimulated and where gas is competitive with coal in power gen.
Creation of deep pool of demand through linkage to N America reduces volume risks of new pipeline projects.
A more positive construct for the future.
Conclusion