“how to solve urban transportation problems through innovation” j. edward anderson, ph.d., p. e....
TRANSCRIPT
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““How to Solve Urban How to Solve Urban
Transportation Problems Through Transportation Problems Through
Innovation”Innovation”
J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E.J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E.Managing DirectorManaging Director
PRT International, LLCPRT International, LLCFormer Professor of Mechanical EngineeringFormer Professor of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Minnesota & Boston UniversityUniversity of Minnesota & Boston University
www.prtnz.com, advancedtransit.orgwww.prtnz.com, advancedtransit.org
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We call our solution to
Urban Transportation Problems
“An Intelligent Transportation Network System”
“ITNS”generically it has been called Personal Rapid Transit
(PRT)
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Here is what I will discuss:1. Urban Transportation problems
2. Approach to solution
3. The Design Process
4. Criteria for solution
5. How to meet the criteria
6. Some tradeoff issues and conclusions
7. Capacity and Control
8. Safety, Reliability, and Life-Cycle Cost
9. How the system is used
10.Significant activity around the world
11.Cost comparisons with conventional rail
12.Land savings
13.Energy savings
14.Benefits
15.Our next steps
16.Why is PRT being implemented first overseas?
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Problems with Urban Transportation
The high and rising price of oil. 2006: 4.9 each hour killed, 294 each hour injured,
NHSB. People who cannot or should not drive – lack of equity. Excessive congestion. Local, regional, international air pollution.
Effects on the climate. Excessive sprawl. Road rage. Large subsidies for transit.
60% of transportation budget for 3% of trips
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Approach to Solution:
Be aware of prior work on old and new systems.
Begin with no commitment to any existing transit system or to any particular
technology. Determine to design a system
that will address all of the problems listed.
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Design Process Study urban transportation as an interdisciplinary issue. Identify the Problems. Understand all factors that influence ridership. Understand all factors that determine cost. Engage in detailed site-specific planning studies. Conduct courses in transport planning and technology. Clarify concepts, give presentations, and receive
feedback. Conduct conferences, visit work of others. Develop design criteria. Identify technical issues. Analyze and resolve technical issues. Only now engage in detailed design. Practice ”15 Rules of Engineering Design,” www.prtnz.com.
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Criteria for Design
A better system must be
Time competitive with the auto Operational with renewable energy sources Low in energy use Low in air and noise pollution
Safe, secure, reliable, and comfortable
Easy to use Low in land and material use
Available at all times to everyone.
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More Design Criteria
Adequate in capacity Visually acceptable
All weather
Compliant with Americans with Disabilities Act
Expandable in area coverage
Operable at competitive speeds
Designed for minimum cost & maximum ridership
An unattractive target for terrorists.
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Key Transit Concept: Cost per
passenger-mile = Cost/year Passenger-miles/year
Problem: Develop system-significant
equation for cost per passenger-mile to clarify the system characteristics that
minimize it.
“Optimization of Transit System Characteristics,” www.prtnz.com.
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Conclusion:
The characteristics of a system that minimize cost
also maximize ridership and define the systemwe now call
An Intelligent Transportation Network System (ITNS)
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Guideway weight reduction 20:1
Small fully automated vehicles!
Large manually driven vehicles.
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Vehicle Design Capacity
Co
st p
er u
nit
Cap
acit
yCost per unit of Design Capacity of Various Transit Vehicles
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Fleet Cost = Cost/Vehicle Capacity People-Carrying
Capacity
Suppose 15 vehicles each averaging 10 mph provide a given people-carrying capacity.
Then 6 vehicles averaging 25 mph provide same capacity.
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The average speed is highest if there are no
intermediate stops, which are not necessary
if stops are off-line just like on a freeway.
Conclusions:
Guideway cost is minimized by using minimum weight
vehicles.
Vehicle fleet cost is minimized by using off-line stations.
This combination makes a major breakthrough!
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Nonstop trips High average speed Minimum fleet size & cost High throughput Small vehicles Small, low-cost guideway
Now interesting things happen: Vehicles run only on demand, not on a schedule Service is always available, the wait is short to none Close station spacing does not decrease average
speed Stations can be sized to demand You ride with chosen companions or alone
All lead to high ridership and low cost.
Transit Systems Theory, www.advancedtransit.org
Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough!
Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough!
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Consider 3 of 45 Tradeoff Issues
For the whole list see
http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/
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Issue: Suspension
• Air cushion• Magnetic (maglev)• Sled runners• Wheels
“Maglev vs. Wheeled PRT”, www.prtnz.com
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Issue: Propulsion
• Rotary motors– internal combustion, electric, steam
• Air• Cables• Linear electric motors
– induction (LIM), synchronous (LSM)– Issues: Guideway size & cost, control
flexibility, maintenance.
“Safe Design of PRT,” www.prtnz.com
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Issue: Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles
“Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles”, www.prtnz.com
• Visual Impact• Cost of posts & Foundations• Natural Frequency• Ease of Switching• Rider Security• All-Weather Operation• Torsion in Curves
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• U-Frame• Vertical Chassis• Wheeled support
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Covers shield from• Sun• EM Radiation• Winter night sky• Snow & iceCovers• Minimize Air Drag• Permit maintenance• Permit appearance totto be customized
“An Intelligent Transportation Network System,” www.prtnz.com
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LIM
VFD
VFDBattery
Shear Plate
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The Guideway is a covered steel truss structure
designed for 90-ft spans.
See “Structural Properties of a PRT Guideway,” for calculations of stress, deflection, critical speed, the 32 design criteria, and how they are met.
The foundations, posts, and guideway can be installed in front of a store in a
day or two.Businesses are not disrupted.
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This system won
competitions in Chicago, SeaTac & Cincinnati
www.skyloop.org
• U-shaped door permits easy entry.•The vehicle interior is wide enough to permit wheelchair entry.• Back seat is therefore wide enough to accommodate three adults.• There is room for wheelchair + attendant, or bicycle,
or baby stroller, or luggage, and two fold-down seats in front.
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Renewable Energy can be used!• Solar panels on the guideway covers can produce 400 kW per mile.
• During the peak period the system needs 200 kW per mile.
• Excess solar or wind energy can be stored in– Batteries– Compressed air– Flywheels– Hydrogen– Pump-storage
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Conventional vs. ITNS
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A settlement 20 km west of Stockholm, Sweden.
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How do we keep vehicles from crashing?
”PRT Control,” “Longitudinal Control of a Vehicle,” “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com
Computers routinely land airplanes on aircraft-carrier decks.
Our computers respond to and correct speed and position two hundred times per second.
Instruments used today to measure position and speed are much more accurate than we need.
Wayside zone controllers monitor vehicle motion.
Code has been developed to control any number of vehicles in networks of any size or configuration.
“Some History of PRT Simulation Programs” www.prtnz.com
“Simulation of the Operation of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com
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High Capacity with Small Vehicles?
Surface-level rail: 6 min between trains in rush period
At capacity: 400 people per train or 400×10 = 4000 people per hour
ITNS: 2 sec average between cars in rush period
At capacity: 3 people per car or 3×1800 = 5,400 people per hour
ITNS capacity/Rail capacity = 5,400/4000 = 1.35:1
The common belief that small vehicles mean small capacity is a myth!
“PRT: Matching Capacity to Demand,” www.prtnz.com
“The Capacity of High-Capacity PRT Systems”, www.prtnz.com.
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In 1973 the UMTA (now FTA) Administrator
Frank Herringer told a Congressional Committee:
“High-Capacity PRT can carry as many people
as rapid rail for a quarter the cost.”
The page of the Congressional Record that contains this statement
is reproduced on page 11 of the paper “Intelligent Transportation Network System,”
which can be downloaded from www.prtnz.com.
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Experimental Proof!
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Number of Station Berths
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Maxim
um
Th
rou
gh
pu
t, v
eh
icle
s p
er
ho
ur
0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
THROUGHPUT of an OFF-LINE STATIONfor line headways from 0.5 to 5.0 sec
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System Reliability & Safety ”Safe Design of PRT System,”
“Failure Modes & Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com
Vehicle has few moving parts. Switch has no moving track parts. Motors have no moving parts. Motors, sensors, and power supply are
redundant. The computers are Dual Redundant. Fault-tolerant hardware and software. We use an exclusive guideway.Result:
– Chance of injury is close to zero!
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Measure and Calculate System Dependability
“Dependability as a Measure of On-Time Performance of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com
Dependability = (1 - Person-Hours of Delay due to Failures Person-Hours of Operation)×100
Calculations show > 99.97% independent of system size!
The method permits Dependability to be both calculated in advance and measured in real timeas a basis for contract specification.
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Problem: Find MTBF of each Component that Minimizes System Life Cycle Cost subject to given Dependability.
Solution: Lagrangian constrained minimization problem solved in paper "Life-Cycle Costs and Reliability Allocation in Automated Transit,“ www.prtnz.com
Mean Time Between Failures
Co
st
Component Costs
Acquisition CostSupport CostLife-Cycle Cost
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Using the New System
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Buy a Prepaid Card.Find destination number from Information Kiosk.
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Accessible to wheelchair
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Ride nonstop to destination!
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Personal Security is Excellent
The stations are well lit.
There is no waiting during off-peak hours.
The stations are monitored by closed-circuit video.
The stations & vehicles have two-way communications with central control.
The stations use motion sensors to detect loiterers.
The ride is private.
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Significant Recent PRT Activity following Chicago
City of SeaTac, Washington – 1990’s
Series of studies in Sweden – 1990’s European Union: “PRT contributes significantly to transport
policy and all related policy objectives. “ 2006 Report.www.advancedtransit.org
BAA - Heathrow International Airport To be operating in spring 2009!
Posco Vectus test in Uppsala, Sweden
Santa Cruz, California
State of New Jersey PRT Study released in April
2007 www.advancedtransit.org, www.prtnz.com
MASDAR, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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ULTra
Bristol University, UK
www.atsltd.co.uk
Heathrow
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Vectus PRT by Posco, South
Korea
VectusPosco Steel Co.
www.vectusprt.com Uppsala
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Cost Comparisons
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“Light” rail tranitA transit mode first introduced in 1888.
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Minneapolis Rail Cost and Trip Data
Data source: www.metrotransit.org
Annualize capital cost:
7% of $715,300,000 = $50,070,000 Annual operating cost: $19,850,000 Total annual cost: $69,920,000 Annual number of trips: 7,267,000 Break-even fare =
$69,920,000/7,267,000 = $9.62 Average fare = $0.99 Subsidy per trip = $8.63 Fares cover 10.3% of the total costs.
See also www.archive.org
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Cost per Daily Trip
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Hiawatha Rail Mpls PRT
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By using off-line stations and small vehicles many more riders can be
attracted! Available anytime of day or night. No need to understand the system. Short walk in a wider service area. Short or zero wait. A seat for everyone. Ride alone or with chosen companions. An enjoyable, nonstop ride. No transfers. Short, predictable trip time. Competitive fare. At 2003 MN State Fair thousands of people lined up to ride 40
ft.
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Land Savings
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Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr
Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr
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Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr
300 ft
15 ft
Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr
300 ft
15 ft
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Enormous Land Savings!
Land required only for posts and stations, only 1/5000th or 0.02% of city land.
Auto system requires
30% of land in residential areas
50% to 70% in downtown
Land savings + high ridership permits safe, zero-pollution, energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, high-density living to an extent not possible with conventional transportation.
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A former parking lot!
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Energy Savings
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Minimum Energy Use Vehicles run only when needed
No in-route stopping
Lower maximum speeds
Each day, one PRT vehicle handles 6-10 auto trips
Minimizing material use minimizes energy use
Very light-weight vehicles
Smooth, stiff tires for low road resistance
Streamlining for low air drag
Efficient propulsion
Adequate insulation
“What determines transit energy use? “, www.prtnz.com
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Benefits
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for Riding Public Everyone can use it including
elderly, disabled, and children.
You need to know only your destination, not what line to take and when a vehicle will leave.
Vehicles wait for people, not people for vehicles.
The trips are short, predictable, and nonstop.
The trip cost is competitive.
There is minimum or no waiting.
Everyone has a seat.
The system is always available.
The vehicles are heated and air conditioned.
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More benefits for Riding Public Safe
Quiet
No transfers
No crowding
Minimum anxiety
Private, pleasant ride
You can make good use of your time while riding
Comfortable, jerk-free motion
Space for luggage, wheelchair or bicycle
There is no need for a driver’s license.
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Benefits for the Community Low energy use Can use renewable energy Less than one millionth accident rate in
autos“Failure Modes & Effects,” www.prtnz.com
Attractive to many auto users Reduced congestion No air pollution Noise barely audible Huge land saving: 0.02% vs. 30-70% Smaller transit subsidies Augments existing rail and bus systems.
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More benefits for the Community
No reason for road rage No significant targets for terrorists More efficient use of land More livable high-density communities More people-attracting parks and gardens Safe, swift movement of mail, goods and waste Easier access to jobs, stores, schools, etc. Faster all-weather, inside-to-inside
transportation Less need for urban expansion
ITNS solves all the problems listed!
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PRT International, LLC After 13 years of intensive activity in PRT, I developed a
new design that won competitions in Chicago, SeaTac, and Cincinnati.
I was a key participant in a $1,500,000
PRT Design Study. I designed and supervised construction and operation of
one automatically controlled, LIM propelled vehicle that ran flawlessly for thousands of rides – I designed a system that worked!
I have developed detailed Requests for Proposal for final design and construction.
I have attracted engineers and engineering companies needed for the next major step:
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A FULL-SCALE TEST PROGRAM
690 ft x 470 ft covering 7.4 acres
Total guideway length 0.49 mi
One Station and 3 vehicles
Max speed: 35 mph
In operation in 15 months from notice to proceed.
The Engineering Program is ready to go!$20,000,000 for engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and planning for the first application. The pilot program will take about as much time as the planning, and will reduce time to
first commercial operation.
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Here is why we need the Pilot Program:
To get the system running as quickly as possible
To verify capital and operating costs
To prove safety, reliability, and ride comfort
To determine the insurance rate
To correct errors before the first application
To develop proven plans and specifications
To train engineers and technicians.
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Why is PRT starting first overseas?
“Devolution of the Federal Role in Urban Transportation” by Edward Weiner, DOT Office of Sec., Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 1984.
He said that Decisions will be guided by the Marketplace. User fees will cover more of the costs.
But Cities were told to consider only proven systems. No means was provided to prove new systems.
Result: Overpowering pressure to get available federal money now. New ideas crushed!
Local leaders need to insist that new systems are included in alternatives analyses.
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Visitwww.prtinternational.com/cms/
www.prtnz.comwww.advancedtransit.orghttp://kinetic.seattle.wa.us
http://gettherefast.orghttp://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/
www.cprt.orgwww.acprt.org
[email protected](763) 586-0877
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