how to predict the future success of marketing messages
TRANSCRIPT
Predicting the success of marketing messages
The first mistake companies make most often is to think solely in terms of product benefit when attempting to grow the market share for their products or services.
This myopic viewpoint has in fact never been a particularly strong approach even in good times when the growth of the last 20 years lulled many manufacturers and service providers into believing it was true.
Simply believing that preference and choice are always a result of either product benefit or price competitiveness is downright delusional. If you need proof of this, just think for a moment: Is the best product in your category the market leader? Is the market leader in your category the lowest cost provider? If the answer to either of these questions is “no” then obviously something else was at play here. At Stealing Share, we have made a science of that kind of human behavior.
We have more than 20 years of experience in developing research-based strategies for companies to grow their market share. As a result of this experience, Stealing Share has developed a predictive model that is useful in directing what a company needs to promise to increase sales and preference, and therefore increase margins. The same model is equally valuable as a predictor of possible success and as a matrix for understanding the past.
How to predict marketing success
For simplicity sake, let’s examine eight of these persuasive human motivators in alphabetical order.
1. Affirmation
2. Change
3. Comfort
4. Community
5. Desires
6. Familiarity
7. Leadership
8. Scope
Affirmation
Human beings, regardless of culture, seek meaning in all of their actions. Knowing this represents a tremendous opportunity for companies and marketers to create preference.
Understanding this human thirst for meaning we also need to recognize that human beings are intellectually lazy. If we do not supply them with the meaning, they will make it up for themselves.
This means the words we choose create important meaning to our messages and brand because everyone who is exposed to your offering (or the communication of that offering) seeks this meaning and in fact will use the words you provide them.
This is a double-edged sword. Meaning is an extremely powerful tool, but can be damaging if not honed and targeted to what matters most to audiences emotionally. If you get the meaning wrong, your prospects and customers will insert meaning that is not important to them, thus losing the opportunity to motivate them to act or inspire them to any great affection to your product.
One of the means by which human beings seek meaning is by looking for affirmation that there are certain outcomes. As a primary human motivator, this sense of affirmation (or certainty) are sought by everyone your brand or marketing messages reach, regardless of culture, product or category. They wish to make sure that all of their actions are somehow affirmed as “being correct.”
Without this value, they gravitate towards inaction, which translates into a refusal to make a choice or they simply fall back into a habit of what “I have always done”. This is a surefire way to assure continued market dominance by the category leader. It means that if we do not provide our customers and our prospects with a sense of affirmation, little or no change will take place in the marketplace and that only helps the market leader, who always benefits from this inaction.
Leadership
This persuasive human motivator is not the leadership that we think of in geopolitical terms. It is about leadership in terms of responsibility — meaning, “who is responsible for action?” This very question places the idea of leadership near the very top of the motivational change. It does this because it is an internal question asked by everyone before they take any action. They ask themselves — “Who should be responsible for this?”
Familiarity
All marketers understand how important familiarity is to any product or service because if someone is unfamiliar with that product or service they are less likely to adopt it as a new behavior. Familiarity is also linked to top-of-mind awareness, but that linkage is not applicable here. It is not who you know but rather, what you know.
Familiarity is a motivational powerhouse because emotionally audiences find familiarity simple, clear and easy to understand. While this means customers must be familiar with the product or service, it also means they must fully understand it for it to be meaningful.
Comfort
Certainly, we all know that human beings seek comfort and this is no great news flash. However, often we overlook how much of a prime motivator the need is for comfort. In addition, we underestimate the dynamic within the need for comfort because there is a gravitational pull toward the known rather than the unknown.
Change
Through years of marketing research, we have come to understand that the desire for control is a prime motivator for humans. It is within the dynamic of change that the need for control becomes most evident. When we think about change as a key persuasive human motivator, we actually think about it more as a barrier than as an attraction. We will divide all of these human motivators into these categories all but two are switching triggers and those two are what we would refer to as barriers to acceptance and change. The need for control and comfort are these two barriers.
Community
When we think of community, let’s refer back to our first human motivator: Affirmation, which represents how the acceptance of the community confirms our existence. It is the desire for almost all human beings to be part of some sort of group. Only a few people in the world are capable of being total individuals. Therefore, for the vast majority of people, the importance of community and the acceptance of that community offers a powerfully emotional motivation.
Desires
Most people who manufacture goods and services believe they take into account the desires of the market. It’s the basis for most marketing for most. However, most generally only perform usage and attitudinal studies to discover what people need or want and create products based on those findings. Desires, though, can also be used as a predictor of success and a tool to understand past successes or failures.
Scope
Scope is probably the most complex of the human motivators. Scope means the range of choices target audiences consider. This represents more than the traditional considered set that marketers deal with everyday. It has more to do with comfort, control and affirmation than with a marketing matrix. What we seek to understand in looking at scope is what gives the target audience permission to include your product or category into their consideration? As such, it is a powerful switching trigger, one that allows us to predict a product success or failure.
Good Times Tough Times
Key Persuasive Human Motivators
Seek Experience Seek Refuge
The Best Thing The Right ThingAffirmation
You MeLeadership
Easy SafeFamiliarity
Accepted SoughtComfort
Uncomfortable FearfulChange
Individual GroupCommunity
Wants NeedsDesires
Choice PrecisionScope
Certainty
Responsibility
Simplicity
Known
Control
Acceptance
Fulfillment
Consideration
The two polarities represents how the main trait (i.e. Affirmation) is defined differently during Good Times (i.e. The Best Thing) and during Tough Times (i.e. The Right Thing).
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
Best ThingRight Thing
In good times, people enjoy the luxury of seeking the “best” in category.
They can accept the “risk” of the uncertain and are willing to accept the possibility of being incorrect. In good times, they can search out the best choice because the possibility of failure has lesser risks.
Best is not valued as much in tough times because you need less (and don’t want to pay more). Best is also less believed in tough times and Right seems more pragmatic. Counterintuitively, in tough times, you can’t afford to make mistakes so the choice of what is Right to do the job is enough.
In tough times, people do not always have the luxury of seeking the “best” in category.
The “risk” of the uncertain is overtaken by the desire to be correct.
As a result, finding the “right choice” takes priority over the best choice in that it elevates the decision to one of risk evaluation and avoidance.
Acceleration of 7.0
Dissonance of 2.0
AffirmationDefined as “the best choice” in good times and “the right choice” in tough times.
Dissonance of 1.0
Dissonance is a measurement of intensity between the measurement
of the attribute in good times vs. tough times. The higher the
dissonance, the lower the margin of error in the scenario. For example,
here incorrectly stressing the trait is twice the mistake in tough times.
Acceleration is a measurement of momentum and importance. The higher the acceleration rate, the more important the attribute is in
times of change.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
MeYou
In good times, people enjoy the luxury of taking greater control. The ability or the skill of decision making carries with it the sense of a safety net for an arial acrobat. They can accept the “risk” of the blame and are willing to accept the possibility of being incorrect.
In tough times, people want to abdicate responsibility to limit the amount of choices. They don’t want to accept the responsibility because “blame” has greater consequences. In good times, they will take more of the responsibility because less is at risk.
In tough times, people fret over making a choice. This risk of being wrong can lead to inaction. Even consensus becomes more difficult as more and more people shy away from the decision-making process.
As a result, there is a very natural gravitational pull towards LEADERSHIP. Certainty becomes a respite in turmoil.
Acceleration of 7.1
Dissonance of 1.0Dissonance of 2.0
LeadershipDefined as “my responsibility” in good times and “your responsibility” in tough times.
In tough times, change elicits an immediate fear response — in that the tolerance for any uncertain outcome overcomes any perceived benefit. It need not have a long event horizon because it is so highly emotionally charged.
In tough times, fear becomes the main filter in life and most everything is seen through the prism of loss. Change as a concept is always akin to a fire drill. In tough times, it takes on the immediacy of encroaching flames.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
UncomfortableFearful
Regardless of the times, change is always a barrier. But in tough times, change is a larger barrier because a general feeling of fear has increased.
Notice that in good times, intolerance for change is dramatically reduced. While it remains uncomfortable, it repels behavior less than in uncertain times.
Acceleration of 6.6
Dissonance of .5
Dissonance of 1.0
ChangeDefined as “uncomfortable” in good times and “fearful” in tough times.
In good or bad times “familiarity” helps mollify risk. However, in good times, people enjoy the luxury of seeking the “easiest” in every category. In this way, it is related to choice. But, in the context of familiarity, choosing the easiest has less gravity.
This changes in tough times. In tough times, people do not allow themselves the luxury of settling for the “easiest” because safety become paramount. In familiarity, the luxury of “ease of use” is surpassed by a value assessed to safe and secure.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
Easy SafeAcceleration of 6
Dissonanceof 3.0
Dissonance of 2.0
The reason why they want the familiar in good times is simply because it is easiest. However, they want it in tough times because familiar is the safest. The same customer would not choose based on familiar in good times because in good times there MAY be other things that are best.
Because of the definition of familiar In bad times, anything other than familiar - even new - appears risky.
FamiliarDefined as “the easiest choice” in good times and “the safest choice” in tough times.
In tough times people seek a “port in a storm”.
As comfort increases in scarcity, its value increases exponentially. As a result, it is not taken for granted and is instead sought after.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
AcceptedSought
Comfortable acts more like a barrier than an attraction or switching trigger. In good times, they expect comfort no matter the choice and in tough times the overall malaise in the environment makes feeling comfortable much more difficult. As a result, the comfortable feels safer in risky times. In good times, people enjoy the luxury of comfort. They take it for granted and find it in many venues.This means that while they seek comfort in decision, it is not necessarily top-of-mind or of highest emotional intensity.
Acceleration 8.5
Dissonance of .5
Dissonance of 5.0
ComfortableDefined as “the accepted state” in good times and “the sought after state” in tough times.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10
Need Want
In good times, people have the unbidden luxury of satisfying wants. Often as not, they confuse needs and wants or see little reason to differentiate between the two. They take it for granted and find it in many venues.
In good times, the perceived difference between Needs and Wants is lessened. In tough times, they have no choice but to see the difference — recognize it and therefore base purchase decisions on it.In tough times, “pause” fosters the ability to discern between the two and needs become more important than wants. As a result, there is a tendency to decelerate on the satisfaction of both needs and wants.
Acceleration 7.5
Dissonance of 1.0
Dissonance of 3.5
DesiresDefined as “a want” in good times and “a need” in tough times.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
123456789
10ChoicePrecision
In good times, people gravitate to choice because abundance is a reminder of good times and a celebration of it. In tough times, there is security in focus and the confusion inherent in “choice” seems unsettling and magnifies overall uncertainty. As a result, there is a natural gravitation to greater focus.
Acceleration 7.5
Dissonance of 1.0
Dissonance of 3.0
More choice appears to them as if they are more at risk of making a mistake. The value equation gets stretched with more choices because simple is better. This leaves the responsibility for scope more to the expert which reflects on the leadership principle. In tough times, precision is more comfortable.
ScopeDefined as “safety in choice” in good times and “simplicity of precision” in tough times.
While there is always a perceived safety in numbers, there is an implied security in individual discovery because of a basic and fundamental optimism. In tough times, the overriding pessimism brings on an realization of scarcity. Therefore, if you are not part of “the group” there is the feeling of being “left out” with the very real possibility of not receiving your fair share.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1Good Times Tough Times
0123456789
10
IndividualGroup
Acceleration 8.8
Dissonance of .5
Dissonance of 5.5
As you can see, in good times, the idea of community is not that important — whether it’s the individual or the group. In tough times, the desire for safety in numbers greatly increases because they gain comfort in the group, especially in terms of experts. They would rather be a follower than a leader. (Because they believe consensus has less risks and are usually right more often than not).
CommunityDefined as “power of the individual” in good times and “safety of belonging to a group” in tough times.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
101
2
3
57
4
6
8
9
10 12
3
57
4
6
8
9
101
2
3
57
4
6
8
9
10 12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
AffirmationChange LeadershipComfort FamiliarIn tough times the “risk” of the uncertain speaks to SMART as the desire to be correct. As a result, finding the “right choice” takes priority over knowing the best choice.
Fear becomes the main filter in life and most everything is seen through the prism of loss. In tough times, it takes on great immediacy.
In tough times ,people shy away from the decision making process. As a result, there is a gravitational pull towards Focus ( and leadership). Certainty becomes a respite in turmoil.
In tough times, people seek a “port in a storm”. As comfort increases in scarcity, its value increases exponentially. As a result, it is not taken for granted and is instead sought after.
In tough times, safety becomes paramount. The luxury of “ease of use” is surpassed by a value assessed to safe and secure.
Human MotivationIntensities In Tough Times
Value of Message Change
Best Right012346789
10
3
7
Uncom-fortable
Fearfull012346789
10
1
7
Me You012346789
10
45
Accepted Sought012346789
10
2
9
Easy Safe012346789
10
5
7
77 59 731 42 5
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10 12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Want Need012346789
10
5
7
Individual Group012346789
10
1
7
71 57
DesiresIn good times ,the difference is lessened. In tough times, they need to see the difference and recognize it and they base purchase decisions on it.
CommunityIn tough times, the overriding pessimism brings on an understanding of scarcity and if you are not part of “the group” there is the feeling of being “left out” with the very real possibility of not receiving your fare share.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Choice Precision012346789
10
3
5
ScopeMore choice seems like you are more at risk of making a mistake. The value equation gets stretched with more choices. Simple is better.
53
Difference between intensity in good times vs tough times
Acceleration
Comfort Affirmation Familiar Community Change Desires Scope Leadership0123456789
109.0
7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.5
5.0 5.0
Tough Times
0123456789
10
2.03.0
5.0
1.0 1.5
6.0
3.04.0
Good Times
Actively Sought
Passively Accepted
Fearful
Uncomfortable
Safe
Easy
Right
Best
You
Want
Me
Group Precision
Need
IndividualChoice
As you can see, there is a very real difference in the importance of the motivations when viewing them in relation to good times or tough times. As a general rule, all motivations are felt more intensely in tough times.
Shown in the perspective of tough times, one can compare the motivational intensities during tough times with the corresponding motivation cue during good times.
Desires Familiar Leadership Affirmation Scope Comfort Change Community0123456789
10
6.05.0
4.03.0 3.0
2.0 1.5 1.0
5.0
3.0 3.02.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
Good Times Adverse in Good Times
Passively AcceptedUncomfortable
Easy
Best
Me
Individual
Choice
Want
Sought Fearful
Safe
Right
You
GroupFocus
Need
Here you can see that during good times, the market is dominated by a more hedonistic vantage point. The top motivator is simply a WANT, followed by what’s EASY and then about ME. This accounts for the consumer-driven economics of good times and the proliferation of bad products (as seen by the relative unimportance of BEST).
The corresponding adverse definition of the same values in tough times follows the same trajectory. This means that the margin of error during good times is greater as the rising tide raises all boats, having an imprecise message might still create a successful communication.
Comfort Change Affirmation Familiar Community Desires Leadership Scope0123456789
109.0
7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.5
5.0 5.04.0
6.05.0
4.0
1.0
3.0 3.02.0
Tough Times Adverse in Tough Times
Passively Accepted
Uncomfortable
EasyBest
Me
Individual
Choice
Want
Sought
Fearful SafeRight
You
Group
Focus
Need
However, when we contrast this with the reality of Tough Times, we immediately see vast differences in motivation, intensities and the order of significance. What may have been a successful message in good times can quickly become an anchor in tough times. The margin for error narrows as well and it is more important than ever to be precise in your motivational triggers.
The position of change demonstrates that no matter the definition, it is a barrier to acceptance in tough times and the palette of comfort tints the entire canvas. RIGHT, SAFE and GROUP carry tremendous significance in Tough Times. Wants become Needs and their importance moves much farther down the ladder of adoption and switching triggers.
Leadership
Change Time Line
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
Scope
FamiliarChang
eAffirmation
Comfort
CommunityDesires
Lower Intensity Higher Intensity
Rate (Time) of ImportanceEarlier Later
In Tough Times
Sought
Fearful
Safe
Right
You
Group
Focus
Need
Comfort and Community are the first motivations to change definition in Tough Times but Affirmation, Familiarity and Adversity to Change carry the greatest intensities.
Seeking Comfort
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
ComfortIn tough times, people seek a “port in a storm.” As comfort becomes more scarce, its value increases exponentially. As a result, it is not taken for granted and is instead sought after.
The need to feel comfortable is always one of the most powerful of human motivations. However, its value is elevated to near extreme proportions during times of uncertainty. The difference in intensity between good times and tough times can be summed up in a single word — active.
In good times, the desire for comfort is more passive in that there is a general feeling of “one’s place” in the world. In tough times, the feeling of comfort is actively sought after and, as such, is a major barrier to use and adoption.
Therefore, new brand launches and new marketing initiatives should seek to build bridges between the very active desire for nostalgic values and ideas.
Because of the overall importance of Comfort, think about it as the context upon which all the other messages and values are received. It is the canvas upon which one paints all of the other motivations and intensities when influencing behaviors.
Accepted Sought1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2.0
9.0
92
Avoiding Change
The avoidance of change is a human condition. Change is almost universally seen as uncomfortable. Trying to persuade someone to change a behavior is always challenging.
In good times, it is seen as uncomfortable and, by utilizing other motivational cues as leverage, behavior and preference can be changed. In tough times, the barrier to change is much more intensive. Rather than feeling the change dynamic as uncomfortable, it is seen as fearful. The persuasive message must therefore rely on the exploitation of the other motivator to lower the anti-change threshold.
If the avoidance index is not considered in the persuasive message, it is highly unlikely that behavior will be changed.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Change
Fear becomes the main filter in life and most everything is seen through the prism of loss. In tough times, it takes on great immediacy.
Uncomfortable Fearfull123456789
10
7
9
97
Being Smart
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Smart
In tough times the “risk” of the uncertain speaks to SMART as the desire to be correct. As a result, finding the “right choice” takes priority over knowing the best choice.
Best Right123456789
10
3
7
73
Affirmation.
All human beings wish to regard themselves as smart and affirmation speaks directly to this desire. In good times, the difference between defining your smarts as being able to discern the right choice from the best choice is small. The difference in that intensity (dissonance) is negligible and humans can confuse the importance of each.
However, in times of strain and uncertainty, the desire for affirmation becomes more intense and we wish to be measured that we are correct (right) in our decision making rather than understanding fully what is best. As a result, affirmation becomes more closely linked to comfort in tough times.
Defining The Familiar
Preferring the familiar is similar in structure to the avoidance of change. The difference is that change is a barrier and the familiar is an attraction.
In good times, human beings prefer things that are easy. In tough times, familiarity is seen as a safe haven.
Therefore, new brand launches and new marketing initiatives should build bridges between what is easy and what is safe. Understanding that the motivational cue of the familiar as safe is more powerful in stressful times.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Familiar
In tough times, safety becomes paramount. The luxury of “ease of use” is surpassed by a value assessed to safe and secure.
Easy Safe123456789
10
5
7
75
Defining Communications
Scope.
Persuasive messages are ALWAYS about choice. But the boobytrap of the paralysis of choice is more acute in tougher times. In other words, additional choices are more readily accepted and acted upon in relatively good times.
Control is part of this motivator. In good times, humans feel more in control when they perceive that availability of choices. In tough times, the same plethora of choices can be a barrier to adoption because choice, by definition is uncertain.
As a result of this, in tougher times and times of strain, humans prefer a more focused palette, limiting the myriad of choices.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Communication
In tough times, people shy away from the decision making process. As a result, there is a gravitational pull towards Focus ( and leadership). Certainty becomes a respite in turmoil.
Choice Focus123456789
10
3
5
53
The Role of Leadership
It is a fact that most human beings will act upon information and opinions when presented to them. “Who do I want to be in the lead?” The answer has a great deal to do with the context of the questioner.
In tougher times, humans are much more willing to cede leadership to others. It is more comfortable to accept the leadership of others. Therefore, messages that are more direct and with bolder calls to action are more readily accepted in tougher times.
In better, more optimistic times, humans are more willing and indeed have a greater desire to blaze their own trails.
In tougher times, this motivator can result in a change of behavior all by itself. In more optimistic times, more values need to be brought into play as the target audience is more willing to risk a poor outcome.
12
3
57
4
6
8
9
10
Decision Making
In tough times, peoples shy away from the decision making process. As a result, there is a gravitational pull towards Focus ( and leadership). Certainty becomes a respite in turmoil.
Me You123456789
10
45
54
Precision and accuracy = smarterThe acceleration of a market leader always increases in a retracting market