how to improve app business based on data?

TURNING NUMBERS

INTO VALUEMARIUSZ GASIEWSKI MINSK 10.11.2016

Source: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Duis non erat sem

Proprietary + Confidential



http://youtube.com/v/jnTT9hDlX_Q

1USDVALUE

100,000DOWNLOADS

100,000USD

BLACK BOX[ INPUT ] [ OUTPUT ]

THE BLACK BOX METHOD

AVERAGE?...

Source: RadiumOne, January 2016

NOT ALL USERS ARE EQUALLY

15%

85%revenue

83%17%

users

USERVALUE

FOCUS ON CLTV INSTEAD OF CAC

Source: http://blog.soom.la/2016/05/estimating-segment-ltv-segment.html

[INSERT TITLE W/ KEY MESSAGE]


CLTV = ARPU x

1+ (referral

value)Churn

CHURN =

# of customers lost in a given period /

# of customers at start of period


Source: http://mobiledevmemo.com/free-to-play-spreadsheet-revenue-model/


CLTV ● ARPU● Lifetime (retention)● Referral value

CAC● Installs● Uninstalls● Opens● Probability to

spend

USERSEGMENTATION

SEGMENTYOUR USERS

SEGMENTYOUR USERS

WHO ARE YOU?

WHAT DO YOU DO?

SEGMENTING

SEGMENTING > UNDERSTANDING

SEGMENTING > UNDERSTANDING > GOING BEYOND

KEY LEARNINGS

1.LESS THAN 15% OF ALL USERS ARE OVER 45Y BUT THIS GROUP REPRESENTS CLOSE TO 30% MOST VALUABLE USERS.

2.MAJORITY OF ALL USERS ARE WOMEN BUT AMONGST THE MOST VALUABLE THE RATIO IS CLOSE TO 50/50.

MAKING ACTIONABLE

STEP #1 DEFINE LTV AND ITS KEY PREDICTORS

WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’SKEY INDICATOR OF ENGAGED USER?

Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated

WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’SKEY INDICATOR OF ENGAGED USER?

ADDING 7 FRIENDS IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS

Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated

THE ‘AHA’ MOMENTS

FACEBOOK7 FRIENDS IN 10 DAYS

TWITTERFOLLOW 30 USERS

ZYNGACOME BACK AFTER 1

DAY

DROPBOXUPLOAD 1 FILE

STEP #2 ESURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY

2. ENSURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY

In-app events are the minimum

recommendation

Is the range of event/install ratio

these events should cover in the same

user funnel

Hits (≠ conversions) per day for all three events are a great

signal for frequency.

Is the number of events per funnel to

choose for predictive

optimization

3 50-5% 10k 1

INCLUDE ONE INSTAL/FIRST OPEN

1.

2.Go to conversions Check the ‘include

in conversions’ column

Change in the conversion setting directly if not

Needs to say ‘Yes’ for one install/ first open for the

promoted app

1 1.2

2.1.3

NOW EASIER THAN EVER

ESPECIALLY WITH FIREBASE

Now optimizing for in-app events

GAME

join_grouplevel_uppost_scoreselect_contentspend_virtual_currencytutorial_begintutorial_completeunlock_achievement

RETAIL/ECOMMERCE

add_payment_infoview_itemview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead

JOBS

add_payment_infoview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead

EDUCATION


TRAVEL

add_payment_infoecommerce_purchasebegin_checkoutview_itemview_item_listview_search_resultsadd_to_cartsearchadd_to_wishlist

LOCAL DEALS


REAL ESTATE


STEP #3 SEGMENT & PROMOTE IN A SCALABLE

WAY

UNIVERSAL APP CAMPAIGNS

Discovering

Searching

Engaging

Surfing

Watching

SETTING RIGHT BUDGET

Min 50x tCPIIdeally stay budget uncapped

By lowering bids

By smaller regional

targeting/ higher budgets

OR

BIDDING 20% HIGHER FOR IN-APP EVENT

You bid tCPI and not tCPA!

NO FREQUENT CHANGES

ForBudget Bids

Also: Don’t change in-app events

STEP #4 LISTEN TO YOUR USER SEGMENTS

DEVELOPERS TESTING FEATURES

OPEN-BETA

Run an open-beta before launching publicly

● Test your app with real users, at scale

● Find product-market fit earlier

● Fine-tune game KPIs

PRIVATE FEEDBACK

Run an open-beta before launching publicly

● Feedback is private

● Doesn’t affect app rating

● Feedback shown in the Play Console

STEP #5 DESIGN FOR ENGAGEMENT AND SHARING

PUSH NOTIFICATIONS

Bingo Stack

Bingo StackPlay now and receive $3 in free credits.

1:58 PM

Bingo StackPlay now and receive $3 in free credits.

INVITES

HAPPNMAKES ITHAPPEN

STARTING POINT

In-app event that matter: Sending a Charm

Shifting to value

“Universal App Campaigns helped us acquire users who got more out of our app. The proportion of these new users sending at least one charm was 18% higher than before the roll out. Universal App Campaigns made it easy to align our growth strategy with the metrics that our business cares about most.”

Estelle Schuster, Growth & Acquisition Specialist - Happn

Increase in registered users sending at least 1 charm

Up to

18%

WHATABOUT YOU?

NOTHING NEW...

I KNOW IT...

Sorry for drastic images ☺

IT’S NOT ABOUTTHE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE

IT’S NOT ABOUTTHE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE

IT’S ABOUT THE LACK OF ACTION

TOMORROW NEXT WEEK NEXT MONTH

Review your cross-device data

from AdWords

Adjust learnings from them to your

strategyTest, analyze,

optimize

QUESTIONS?

APPENDIX


Proprietary + ConfidentialGoing deeper


Proprietary + ConfidentialNot obvious targeting (18-24)


Proprietary + ConfidentialAttribution


Proprietary + ConfidentialWhere is value?

“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve eliminated discrepancies between our internal BI and attribution tool, so we’re more confident in our marketing spend.”

Hitwe meets itsgoal of optimaluser engagement with Firebase

- Ann LavrishevaPPC Manager, Hitwe

Goals•Understand user behavior

across different segments as a way to optimize engagement with target audiences

Approach•Use Firebase to analyze

performance of AdWords campaigns as well as user behavior

•Build audience lists based on data for optimized push-notification campaigns

Results•Successfully running campaigns

across channels based on Firebase data

•Improved, consistent engagement with audience via targeted push-notifications

•Simplified tracking management through Firebase’s single dashboard

“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve eliminated discrepancies between our internal BI and attribution tool, so we’re more confident in our marketing spend.”

- Ann LavrishevaPPC Manager, Hitwe

Improved user engagement Via Targeted

Push-notifications

Simplified tracking

management through

Firebase’s single dashboard

Hitwe meets its goal of optimal user engagement with Firebase Successfully

running all campaigns based on

Firebase data



CLTV●ARPU●Lifetime (retention)●Referral value


Proprietary + ConfidentialSegment or die



2. Segment or die

Segment or die



Google Confidential and Proprietary

Real segmentation

Información confidencial propiedad de Google

Usage of Remote ConfigTake action using cloud platforms to maximise personalisation opportunity


Proprietary + ConfidentialTesting case study



Source: https://splitforce.com/blog/case-study-growing-mobile-ebook-revenue-25-ab-testing/



Confidence level Margin of

Error90% 95% 99%

0.50% 36,995 36,995 62,4101% 6,719 9,513 16,3692% 1,689 2,395 4,1433% 751 1,066 1,8464% 423 600 1,0395% 271 384 665

Statistical significance



Upsell -> Increased revenue by 30%

Upsell



Increased revenue by 20%Personalisation and segmentation

how to improve app business based on data?

Software