how to be a strategic futurist: an evolutionary developmental perspective on accelerating change us...

How to Be a Strategic Futurist:An Evolutionary Developmental Perspective on Accelerating Change

US Army War College Strategic Leadership 2005John Smart, President, ASF

Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

© 2005 Accelerating.org

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

Presentation Outline

1. Introduction

2. Assumptions

3. Two Processes of Change: Evol. and Development

4. Introduction to Accelerating Change

5. Prediction: Expecting the Future

6. Management: Thriving with Change

7. Creation: Making the Future

8. Group Discussion

1. Introduction



Acceleration Studies Foundation

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change.

We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices.

Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.



Brief History of Futures Studies

1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation



Four Types of Futures Studies

– Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)

– Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)

– Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)

– Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and

development studies

It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses

Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.



Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me)Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network

Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is easily wrong.

A multi-biased network gives you a wider and deeper map of the possibility space. This will make you more adaptive, and may make you more foresighted.

Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and present, but very little thinking about personal, organizational, and global futures. Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias.

“You can’t get an unbiased education, so the next best thing is a multi-biased one.” Buckminster Fuller

Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies, have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical. Consult the crowd but make your own decisions.



Graduate Foresight Programs:Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping

Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs) Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs) Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD

under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998).

Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early for foresight specializations.

To date only tech roadmapping is falsifiable, and is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992).

Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Acceleration and Development Studies.



Foresight Development:Future Prediction, Mgmt, and Creation

Prediction– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, the

history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, marketing research

Management– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence,

networking, scenario development, risk analysis, hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems

Creation– personal and entrepreneurial tools for creating

individually preferred futures, research and development, creative thinking, positive psychology, social networking, business plan production



Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development?

Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private

university in Taiwan Like history and

current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.

Why not here?

2. Assumptions



Systems Theory

Systems Theorists Make Things Simple

(sometimes too simple!)

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

— Albert Einstein



The Infopomorphic Paradigm

The universe is a physical-computational system.

We exist for information theoretic reasons.

We’re here to discover, think/emote, and create.



The MESTI Universe

Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information

Increasingly Understood Poorly Known

MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change.



Physics of a “MESTI” Universe

Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density

Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search)

An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = NegentropyUniversal Energy Potential is Conserved.



Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

Free Energy Rate DensitySubstrate (ergs/second/gram)

Galaxies 0.5Stars 2 (counterintuitive)Planets (Early) 75Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)Jets (10^8)

Pentium Chips (10^11)

Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

Ф

time



Strategic/Integral Foresight:Skill Sets and Processes

Greeks

True

What Is

Good

What ‘We’ Want

Beautiful

What ‘I’ Want

Pronouns

It/Its We/He/She/You I/Me

Professional Skill Sets

DiscoveryUniversal

ManagementSocial

CreativityIndividual

Processes

DevelopmentConvergence

Statics/DynamicsLaw/Emergence

EvolutionDivergence



Strategic/Integral Thinking:Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats

It/Its We/He/She/You I/Me

White(Facts)

Yellow(Social Positive)

Red(Intuition)

Blue(Process)

Black(Social Negative)

Green(Creative)



Strategic/Integral Maps:Ken Wilber’s Process/Mgmt Quadrants

Computational Processes

Management/Validity Tests

We need foresight in all quadrants (processes and management tests).

• All drive change.• None can be reduced to the others• There are no others as basic!



Types of Intelligence:Gardner’s ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’

Gardner has developed research and metrics for eight different “frames” or “modules” of human capacity. A great way to look at thinking.



Types of Intelligence:Wilber’s ‘Lines/Vectors’

I It (MEST Mgmt)

Intrapersonal/Self-Identity Body/Kinesthetic/Health Cognitive/Emotional/Needs Creativity/Creative

Visual/Spatial Aural/Musical Spatio-Temporal Material-Energetic

We (Social Mgmt) Its Interpersonal/Social-Identity Linguistic/Social-Narrative Moral/Culture/Social-Relation Intimacy/Social-Care

Nature/Systems Info Logic/Mathematical Info Object Relations/Structure Discovery/Predictive

Meta/Transcendent/Spiritual Attractor

Wilber proposes at least twice as many intelligence lines/dimensions than Gardner. I’ve mapped the ones that I think are justified to his quadrants, above.

Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor that continually seeks to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.



Vectors of Development:Sequential Growth Stages

Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration.



Gilligan’s Stages of Female Moral Development

Stage Sample Question: Is abortion a woman’s right?

Universal Care(integral, weighted, plural)

“Yes, sometimes” (birth defects, etc.)

Care(culture, conformity, code)

“No” (against dominant culture/code/convention)

Selfish (ego, individual)

“Yes” (my body, my choice)

Carol Gilligan

Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional. This is reasonably good research.



Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development

Stage Sample Belief System

Integral “Many things change the world.”

Rational “Science changes the world.”

Mythic “Other’s power changes the world.”

Magic “My wishes change the world.”

Archaic “Nothing/work changes the world.”

Eugene Debser

Some stage conceptions have a lot less evidence at present, but seem good candidates for further research.



Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-NeedsSmart’s Hierarchy of Socioeconomics

Self-Transcendence(Religion & Death)

/ Property

Bio-Transcension?

Digital Twin IT Society

Valuecosm IT Society

Network IT Society

Manufacturing Society

Agricultural Society

Biological Learning Stages Technological Learning Stages

3. Two Processes of Change: Evolution and Development



The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”

Com

plex

Env

iron

men

tal I

nter

actio

n

Selection & Convergence““Convergent Selection”Convergent Selection”Emergence,Global OptimaMEST-Compression Standard Attractors

Development

Replication & Variation ““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Adaptive Radiation Chaos, ContingencyPseudo-Random SearchStrange Attractors

Evolution

Right HandLeft Hand

Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computat’l Phase Space Opening



Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints”

Consider two identical twins:

Thumbprints Brain wiring

Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.Development creates the predictable global patterns.



Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)

The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.



How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?

Evolution tried this experiment.

Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.



How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile?

Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.



Evolution and Development:Two Universal Systems Processes

Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.

The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.

EvolutionChanceRandomnessVariety/ManyPossibilitiesUniquenessUncertaintyAccidentBottom-upDivergentDifferentiation

DevelopmentNecessityDeterminismUnity/OneConstraintsSamenessPredictabilityDesign (self-organized or other)Top-DownConvergentIntegration



Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability

Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).

4. Introduction to Accelerating Change



From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED



From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED

Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977)

Each month is roughly 1 billion years.



A U-Shaped Curve of Change

Big Bang Singularity

100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.

1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth

100,000 yrs: Matter

50 yrs ago: Machina silico50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds

Developmental Singularity?



Eldredge and Gould(Biological Species)

Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)(income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)

80% Equilibrium (Evolution)

Suggested Reading:For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's DilemmaFor the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More

Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…)



Different Kinds of Accelerations: Efficiency vs. Transformation

Business Week’s First Edition, October 1929:

IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”

PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco.

Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would continually transform itself while another would experience accelerating efficiencies but, on the surface, be unchanged?



Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy

While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this:

Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. Build a national culture that rewards refinements.

Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.



A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology

How S Curves Get Old

Resource limits in a niche Material

Energetic

Spatial

Temporal

Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing

No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational

substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition

Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time



The Technological Singularity Hypothesis

Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.”

The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.



Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist”

The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its

possibilities."

Wild speculation or computational reality?

Still too early to tell, at present.



Something Curious Is Going On

Unexplained.(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)



The Developmental Spiral

Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060



Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?

A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020 – 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd

gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.

A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 – CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation,

Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.

A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 – CUI personality capture (weak uploading),

Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.

2050: Era of Strong Autonomy – Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles,

each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.



Macrohistorical Singularity Books

The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998

Singularity 2130 ±20 years

Trees of Evolution, 2000




Macrohistorical Singularity Books

Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003


The Singularity is Near, 2005




“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency: Wigner and Mead

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics.

Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.

F=ma E=mc2

F=-(Gm1m2)/r2

W=(1/2mv2)

In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.



Example: Holey Optical Fibers

Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.

This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions.

Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.

Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.



Understanding the Lever of ICT

“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD



Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change

In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II, 1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human-engineered accelerating progress models.

Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.

GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005



Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)



Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth?

Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60th largest country, and the 55th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.

NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

Three minutes for Disney.Twenty minutes for Sony.

Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005



World Economic Performance

GDP Per Capita in Western Europe,1000 – 1999 A.D.

This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.

Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.



Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)

Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.



Understanding Process Automation

Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”).

Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth)“7/8 comes from technical progress.”

Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education

Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).

Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound



Automation and Job Disruption

Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy.

America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist)

“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line.” (Tsvi Bisk)"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003



Back to the Greek Future

Greece built an enviable empire on the back of human slaves.

21C humanity is building an even more enviable one on the back of our robotic servants.

Expect machine emancipation, too.

“The more things change, the more some things stay the same.”



Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change

Technological (dominant since 1950!)

“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)

“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)

“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.

Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.

5. Prediction: Expecting the Future



Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.

(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,

P2P as a proprietary or open source development)

3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).



Humans are Prediction Systems

Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm ComputingFounder, Redwood Neurosciences InstituteAuthor, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004

“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”



The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball

What does hindsight tell us about prediction?

The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operationsresearch/ cybernetics/think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality”era of Futures Studies.

(Kahn & Wiener, 1967).



Classic Predictable Accelerations:Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).



Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law



Transistor Doublings (2 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net



Processor Performance (1.8 years)




DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)




Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process

Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech:

Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960)

Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.

Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.



Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles

There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace…

Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory. (“MEST compression is a rigged game.”)

Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999



IT’s Exponential Economics




Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1

Automation and the Service Society



Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982*

*Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03

Network/Services/KM SocietySociety of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)

Network 1.0“McJobs” & Service65% of Jobs, 2000’s

Network 2.0New Middle Class40% of Jobs, 2030’s

Network 3.0Consolidation Again15% of Jobs, 2060’s

Manufacturing/Information Society Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)

Manufacturing 1.0Exploitive Jobs50% of Jobs, 1900’s

Manufacturing 2.0New Middle Class35% of Jobs, 1950’s

Manufacturing 3.0Offshoring/Globalizing14% of Jobs, 2000’s

Agricultural Society Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)

Agriculture 1.0Subsistence Jobs80% of Jobs, 1820’s

Agriculture 2.0Family Farms50% of Jobs, 1920’s

Agriculture 3.0Corporate Farms2% of Jobs, 1990’s



Network Economy 1.0

Remittances(From Guest Workers in

U.S. and Canada)

Foreign Direct Investment(Corporate)

NGO’s(Nonprofit Contribs)

Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID)

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?



Network Economy 1.0

Remittances(From Guest Workers in

U.S. and Canada)

Foreign Direct Investment(Corporate)

NGO’s(Nonprofit Contribs)

Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID)

Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?

A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, other emigrating (“brain drain”) nations.

Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005



The Voluntary Future

Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040

Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.)

225,900 298,500 321,900

Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900

Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work

43,800 176,100 246,000

Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.

Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)



Many Accelerations are:1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves)

Some Underwhelming Exponentials:

Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)

Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years.

Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).

Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)

BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004



Saturation Example 1: Total World Population

Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.



So What Stopped the Growth?



Saturation Example 2:Total World Energy Use

DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since.

Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new

generation of technological system3. Saturation of human population and

human needs for tech transformation

Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures.

Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand.

Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in ways very few of us currently understand.



Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita

When per capita GDP reaches:• $3,000 – energy demand

explodes as industrialization and mobility take off,

• $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed,

• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met,

• $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy.

Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP.

Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001



Longer Term Example: Solar Energy

Twenty to fifty year development horizon. 5-10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%. Need good, cheap energy storage systems.



Accelerating Ephemeralization and the Increasingly Weightless Economy

In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance”

This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage." (e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.



The Symbiotic Age

Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:

A time when computers “speak our language.”A time when our technologies are very

responsive to our needs and desires.A time when humans and machines are

intimately connected, and always improving each other.

A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”



With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged.

New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization.

“The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent.”

We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems.

The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era

Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998



An ICT Attractor:The Conversational User Interface (CUI)

Google’s cache (2002) As we watch Windows 2004

become Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech



Why Will You Use An “Agent Interface” in 2020?

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Ananova, 2002



Social Software, Lifelogs

Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it). Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.

Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.



The Valuecosm

Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder) Datacosm (Sterling) Valuecosm (Smart) Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding

Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media



Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.



In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture



AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”)

• AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) • Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs

on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)

• Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture



Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence: Automated Trading Comes of Age

As of 2005, automated computer trading models (algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now execute more than half of all U.S. stock trades.

From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC let go of half their human traders, while increasing trading volume 160%.

BusinessWeek, 4.18.2005

All major brokers are spending millions on this technology. Minor brokers coming next.

We are now seeing the beginning of the AI Age in the financial community.



Robo sapiens

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2

(Something very cool about this algorithm…)

“Huey and Louey”

Aibo Soccer



Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and Accelerating Public Transparency

Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency

David Brin’s “Panopticon”The Transparent Society, 1998



Q1: Which apps have been discussed?

a. Border monitoringb. City monitoringc. Urban broadbandd. Early warning radar

Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech?

Inventor: Hokan Colting21stCenturyAirships.com180 feet diameter. Autonomous.60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)Permanent geosynch. location.Onboard solar and navigation.A “quarter sized” receiver dish.

MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It!

Q2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world?

Latency, bandwidth, launch costs.

MEST compression always wins.



Tomorrow’s Fastspace:User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds

Future Salon in Second Life Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)



U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor

The Network of the 1880’s

Built mostly by hard-working immigrants



IT Globalization (2000-2020):Promontory Point Revisited

The more things change, the more some things stay the same.

The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one.

Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.



Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides

Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom

Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*.

Education divide may close next (post-LUI) Power divide likely to close last. Political

change is the slowest of all domains.

*World Bank, 2005



Our Generation’s Theme

First World Saturating

Third World Uplifting



Empire Progression(Note the West-Far East Trajectory)

American

Japan(Temporary: Pop density,Few youth, no resources.

East Asian Tigers(TaiwanHong KongSouth KoreaSingapore)

India

ChinaExpect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources,stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.

BHR-1, 2002



A Prediction:The Sputnik of Networking 2.0 Society

Sputnik Humbot

U.S.-SurpassingSpace/Defense Tech

Human-SurpassingSecurity/Warfighting Tech



MEST Compression/Capacity Metric

How proficient can the Humbot be vs. a human soldier?

Running down a perp, through any terrain, and bringing him in. The Robocop objective.

Network of 1,000 mesh sensors monitoring a square mile for the bot.

Teleoperated or semi-autonomous. “Shock and Awe on a Somalian Streetcorner”



Will the DoD Make the Humbots of 2030?

It won’t be Europe or Japan (Post-Military) Could be Taiwan/China/India/Korea or some

collaboration thereof. Will Japan license IP? When (not if) will soldiering be consolidated to

1/5 the numbers we see today? 2050? 2090? Will the U.S. still be the #1 provider of world

security? Will we partner intelligently or try to go it

alone? The lead is ours to keep or lose.



Strategic Proposal: Innovate, Collaborate, “Fight for 40%”

IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company) laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership.

Is this a true innovation partnership? Can make the deal so independent that it

must be. Technology interdependence leads

corporate interdependence which then leads political interdependence (last) today globally. Not usually the reverse.

6. Management: Thriving with Change



We Have Two Options:Future Shock or Future Shaping

“We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin



Automation Development Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts

Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today)

Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today)

Automating of service is pushing people into information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry)

Automating of IT will push people into symbiont groups (“personality capture”)

Automating of symbiont groups will push people beyond biology (“transhumanity”)



S-Curves and Creative Destruction

New Old Europe (Network 1.0)Newly Creatively Destructive

Spain’s Recent Creation of Two-Tier Workforce. “McJobs” Under 40). (20 5% Unemployment)Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax)

New Asia (Network 1.0)Very High CD Index

Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, etc.

United States (Network 0.8)50% CD Index

50% of top 25 companies no longer top after 25 years.We are IT-challenged vs. Asia

Japan (Network 1.0)Old Europe (Mfg 3.0)Low/Very Low CD Index

Germany (13% unemployment)Italy (11% unemployment)France (10% unemployment)



Taiwan’s Example

Taiwan requires university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies.

Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction).

Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world.

Taiwan has the highest degree of economic creative destruction in the world.



Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization

“America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate

the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We

have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge

interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our

overarching national interest today and the political party that

understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.”

Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding

Globalization (2000).



Globalization Eras

Globalization I: 1800’s – WWI

Mechanism:

Industrial Revolution, cheap transportation

Backlash Ideologies:

Communism, Socialism, Fascism



Globalization Eras

Globalization II: 1980’s – Present

Mechanism:Information Revolution, cheap communications

Backlash Ideologies: Fundamentalism, civil disobedience, crime, eco-

activism

Examples: Sem Teto, Hugo Chavez



Technological Globalization: Winners

Globalization is less a choice than a statistical inevitability, once we have accelerating, globe-spanning technologies (communication, databases, travel) on a planet of finite surface area (“sphericity”).

There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as:

Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets, Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies(The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum)

Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism)(Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen)

Global Corporations (large and small)(New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman)



Some of the longer term losers:

Non-Network Memes and Traditions like Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism(Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson)

Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven (mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (“Third World War”)

(The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin)(Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin)

Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions SanctioningNetwork-Breaking Violence (“Fourth World War”)

(The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington) Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems (excepting critical systems, like Security)

(The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel)

Technological Globalization: Losers



Technological Globalization: Uncertains

Most elements of modern society are evolutionary, meaning they remain ‘indeterminate’ actors which may or may not become winners. Their fate depends on the paths we choose. Some key examples:

Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity, Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion, Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance (The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks)

The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to Uganda)(A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge)

The Developing World(The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto)



Globalization Management

Backlash forces have to be kept in check by:

• Global tech innovation and diffusion• Global economic growth• Global political

• accountability• transparency• fair policies• minimal government (maximizing tech and

economic development)• security



How can the U.S. Military Globalize?

America’s Army (Promote Foreign Players) Inderdependent Intel Community More Guest Soldiers/Exchanges International & Joint Wargames Global Arms Trade Oversight Develop and Install “Security Franchises” Global R&D Funding for Security Enabling

Factors (Networked Weapons, Sensors, Autonomy/DARPA Grand Challenge)



The Pentagon’s New Map

A New Global Defense Paradigm



Shrinking the Disconnected Gap

The Computational “Ozone Hole”



Interdependency/Development Metrics

Gap Countries– Child and Infant Mortality Rates (Lagging Indicators)

“The primary global currencies by which the “quick and privileged” negotiate change with the “slower and deprived” (Pete Lantz)

– Infrastructure– Information Access (Culturally Appropriate)

Core Countries– Tech, Econ, Cultural Exchange Bandwidth– Guest Worker Programs/Visa Reform



Immunity/Security Metrics

Core and Gap– Degree of Transparency– Sensor Ubiquity– Redundancy/Robustness– Authentication/Secure Public ID– Responsiveness (to catastrophe)

Example: How rapidly can bombsites be cleaned up? Rebuilt? Value in differential responsiveness?

Iraq provides an opportunity to run the experiment.



Interdependence/Development Metric:Measurable Exponential Value (MEV)

Gap Examples (Iraq): Communications (cellphones) Lighting (digital solid state) Energy (centralized scale, subsidized deflationary

prices; decentralized storage and generation)Example: Donkey cart generators

Food storage, culinary, and women’s needs Sports / Youth Fads Portable CD Players/local music ($10 at Wal-Mart) Security (networked cameras; camera traps)

Culturally-dependent: Britain vs. S. Africa vs. U.S. Public access radio and TV stations



“Planning the Peace” in Iraq:The Say-Do Development Chasm

2,600 Iraqi Development Projects Promised160 under way by mid-2004 (Time, July 2004)

Of all of these, communications may have been our biggest lost MEV opportunity (public forum and exchange).

We wired ourselves superbly (CPOF) but by end of 2004 we still had not wired into the populace, or even helped them to wire themselves, in exponential fashion. Can do one-to- many (low power radio/TV) if one-to-one (cellphones) is too risky for initial deployment.



Immune Recognition vs. Rejection

The phenomenon of immune recognition (and immune tolerance) vs. rejection.

The honeymoon period.

Rejection, if no measurable exponential value within the host network.

We did not pass this test (in fairness, we may never have passed).

Nevertheless, there were many missed opportunities for deploying MEV strategy.



DARPA R&D Ideas

Networked Lethal and Nonlethal Weapons– Converting Offensive to Inherently Defensive

Security Assets

Tele-Operated and Autonomous Control– Security and Logistics

Mesh Sensors/Camera Traps– Border/Interior Security



Interagency Cooperative R&D Ideas

Firefighting (10’s of Billions/year)– Only the DoD has the munitions for firebreaks at

will. Legal and jurisdictional barrier to overcome.

Microwave Military Sats (10’s of Billions/year)– More legal and jurisdictional barriers. Expanding

the concept of National and International Security.



Hurricane Control:New DoD/NASA/NOAA Security Mission?

Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 caused damage in U.S. NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity.

“Controlling Hurricanes,” Scientific American, 10.2004

Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s).In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados.

Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed).23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground.Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.



Underground AHS/TBM :DARPA/Army Corps Project?

May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10X present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+)

“Underground Automated Highway Systems: 2030 Vision,” John Smart, 2005



Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves

Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery What Might This Enable?

80% recharge in 60 seconds

99% duty after 1,000 cycles

Reliable at temp extremes

Cost competitive

New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson



Tools for Networking 1.0:Social Network Analysis

Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks.

“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004



Networking Books

Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003

Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003



Create Your Own Network:Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto

Met every Friday. The group invented: – the first subscription library in North America– the most advanced volunteer fire department– the first public hospital in Pennsylvania, – an insurance company, a constabulary,– improved streetlights, paving – the University of Pennsylvania.

Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks. – Scientist– Inventor– Businessman– Statesman



Social Networking: Implications for Leaders

How to Maximize Adaptation: Find the informal (hidden) structure of the landscape. (Data

Mining)Broad Landscape: Community of Interest (Generalized)Deep Landscape: Community of Practice (Specialized)

How connected are you in these landscapes? (Network Analysis)

How many close neighbors do you have in your small worlds network? Optimized to your personal bandwidth? (Efficiency)

How many of your neighbors are bridging links to the whole system? (Network Analysis)

This will determine how rapidly feed forward and feedback can propagate to you across the entire landscape. (Robustness, Scanning, Ability to Influence Change)

Reorganize your network! Be near the center of the topics you care about. Be broad and selectively deep.



The NBIC Report and Conferences

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive ScienceEdited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report)

www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/



“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development

Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications)

It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field.Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless

It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies.

Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion.

First mover and second mover advantages.



U.S. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration has flagged in recent years

China surpassed the U.S. this year as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment.

In 2002, US Corporate R&D declined by $8 billion, largest percentage drop since 1950.

Five countries (Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Israel) spend more GDP on R&D than the U.S.

Foreign owned companies and foreign born inventors now count for nearly half of all U.S. patents, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounting for more than one fourth.

Federal R&D funding is now 1/2 of its 1960's peak of 2% of GDP. Total scientific papers by American authors peaked in 1992 and

have been flat ever since. Services are the fastest growing sector of many technology

companies, yet much of our service sector, now more than half the U.S. economy, traditionally does little R&D on business process design, organization, and management.

Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004



National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample)

Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004

Talent Investment PoliticsExpedited, expanded sci-tech immigration

3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel.” grants

Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group

National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors

3% of DoD budget must go back to sci-tech, 20% of this at U’s

New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda

Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships

Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline

National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office.

Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation

Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding

Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law.

Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago.

7. Creation: Making the Future



Some Tools for Making the Future

Education Investment Literacy / Environmental Awareness

– Technological– Business– Political– Social

Foresight Innovation/R&D Competition (fair, creatively destructive) Leadership

– Local Commitment– Global Perspective

Activism



Education Questions

How do we best educate our ourselves, our employees, our community, our children?

How do we learn “on demand” when we need it?

How do we learn when to act locally, and when to act globally?

When to learn individually vs. collectively?



New Business IA/Social Network Idea: 24/7 Affordable Tech Education

From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers

80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India)

+ 140 million U.S. labor force (2000).

+ Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems

+ Commodity communications costs

+ PC transparency software (Gotomypc)

+ Trust (Privacy)

= 24/7 Tech Education

How soon? Watch Dell…



Developmental Windows

In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child?

Zerotothree.org

What will tomorrows for-profit daycare chains be like?



Investment Questions

Are you practicing socially responsible and technologically responsible (acceleration aware) investing?

Supporting companies, products and services that are increasingly:

Global Intelligent Interdependent Immune/Transparent Efficient Innovative



Literacy Questions

Are you computer, web, and communications savvy?

Do you use social network media (blogs, web communities, etc.)?

Do you subsidize online and technological innovation (leading, not bleeding edge)?

Are you reading and interpreting what’s going on in the world?

See ASF Community Directory (accelerating.org/community.html)



Foresight Questions

Do you take time to consider the past, present, and future of your personal and professional life?

Do you use strategic planning, scanning, competitive intelligence, trend extrapolation, forecasting, scenario generation, or other futures tools?

Do you read the opinions of key future thinkers in your areas of professional interest?

Are you supporting the emergence of a professional futures community?



Innovation Questions

Are you thinking about innovation across the spectrum (products and services, offline and online)?

Do you know which of your employees, business partners, and customers is the most innovative, all else equal? Do you reward that in your business model?

Are you working with a global and virtual innovation team?



Innovation:Idea Market/IdeaShare/ShouldExist

A shareware ideas bank Idea Contests/Forums/Blogs “I release this to the public domain.” Reputation and budgetary rewards Unleashing individual ingenuity Improving innovation and entrepreneurship Can you set up one for your org?



Leadership Questions

Are you sharing your future visions or keeping them quiet?

Are you getting critiques and feedback, and is this changing your perspective?

Are you responding respectfully, adequately, yet concisely to your critics?

Are you looking for others who also want to work toward a common vision?

Is this a mutual appreciation society or is your group affecting real change?

Are you tolerant of parallel, pluralist approaches?



Good Leadership Attributes

The best are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice.

Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004

“Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs.”

Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems.



Digital Activism: Skype (Internet Telephony)



Seeing the Extraordinary Present

“There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.”

- Gail Carr Feldman



Carpe Diem

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain

"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer

8. Group Discussion:Promise and Problems

how to be a strategic futurist: an evolutionary developmental perspective on accelerating change us...

Documents

developmental future

development studies

los angeles new york

future shock

common future

introduction slide

world future society

global futures