how east asians view a rising china: implications for taiwan
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How East Asians View A Rising China: Implications for Taiwan. Yun-han Chu Nottingham, March 11, 2014. Competition over Soft Power. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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How East Asians View A Rising China: Implications for
Taiwan
Yun-han Chu
Nottingham, March 11, 2014
Competition over Soft Power Entering the 21st century more countries are
increasingly placing the emphasis on the projection of benign country images. Such projections are critical not only for building partnerships for strengthening economic cooperation and addressing mutual security concerns but also for gaining access to new markets.
The ancient Chinese thinkers had also long upheld the motto of "making the people near-by satisfied and the people from afar to join you"（近悅遠來） as the guiding principle of engaging other peoples.
However, it is only in the recent decade that the concept of "soft power" -- ability to produce outcomes through persuasion and attraction rather than coercion or payment -- has entered into the lexicons of Chinese policy makers.
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China’s Effort of National Image Management
Over the recent decade, Chinese policy elite has increasingly recognized that for a rising power like China soft power and national image management are essential aspects of its foreign policy agenda.
Hu Jingtao in his official address told the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party that China needed to enhance “the soft power of its culture.”
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China’s Charm Offense Over the last decade Chinese government
has invested billions of dollars to cultivate and upgrade its soft power resources. Confucius Institutes around the worldA 24-hour CCTV Cable News ChannelThe 2008 Beijing OlympicsThe 2010 Shanghai ExpoBoao Forum for Asia
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Growing Popular Awareness There has been growing interest among ordinary
citizens throughout Asia in developments in China.
China-related topics top Asian agendas and fill television programs and newspaper pages.
Most Asian people were tremendously impressed by China's miraculous economic growth and amazed by the fact that China’s GDP has passed Japan in 2010 and now ranks the second largest economy in the world.
In particular, China suddenly emerged as the buyer of the last resort after the 2008-09 sub-prime loans crisis and the ensuing global financial crisis.
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How China Is Perceived By Asians? It is important to look at the story at the
receivers’ side as Joe Nye correctly pointed out that soft power depends on willing interpreters and receivers.
While Asian people have increasingly been reckoned with the China’s political and economic might, they are not necessarily persuaded by its stated foreign policy objectives and strategic intention, and much less attracted by its political system.
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Very Little Empirical Data
Pew Global Attitudes Survey is the only cross-national survey that collects public opinion data on people's image about China on regular basis. However, the Pew Survey has so far covered only a few East Asian countries and in its recent survey of 2012 only Japan and China
A recent BBC Global Scan poll on how the China's influence in the world is viewed by other countries also only covered China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
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Asian Barometer Survey
The Asian Barometer Survey fills up an important void in our understanding of the phenomenon of China’s rise and its implications for policy makers.
It was administered in thirteen East Asian countries and territories on the basis of country-wide probability sampling and face-to-face interview.
It can answer to what extend China’s growing economic influence and international stature might have been translated into greater soft power.
9www.asianbarometer.org
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Asian Barometer Third Wave Survey Schedule
Country Period Sample Size
1 Taiwan January-February 2010 15922 Philippines March 2010 12003 Mongolia April -May 2010 12104 Singapore April-August 2010 10005 Vietnam September-October 2010 11916 Thailand August-December 2010 15127 Korea May 2011 12078 Indonesia May 2011 15509 Mainland China July-October 2011 347310 Malaysia October-November 2011 121411 Japan December 2011 188012 Cambodia February-March 2012 120013 Hong Kong September 2012 1103
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Table 1. Which country has the most influence in Asia now?Country China United StatesVietnam 69% 16%Taiwan 67% 21%
Mongolia 66% 13%Japan 61% 29%
Singapore 60% 28%Korea 56% 32%China 44% 25%
Thailand 42% 44%Malaysia 36% 44%
Cambodia 26% 58%Indonesia 23% 41%
Philippines 17% 66%
Southeast Asia’s Average 39% 42%
East Asia’s Average 47% 35% Data source: ABS Wave III (2010-2012)
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Table 2. Which country will have the most influence in ten years?
Country China United StatesKorea 83% 9%
Taiwan 82% 10%Singapore 73% 13%Mongolia 71% 9%Vietnam 70% 16%
Japan 65% 13%China 59% 11%
Thailand 56% 31%Malaysia 44% 26%
Cambodia 43% 34%Indonesia 31% 33%
Philippines 17% 65%
Southeast Asia’s Average 48% 31%
East Asia’s Average 58% 22%
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Figure 3: Positive Imange of China: Comparing Different Surveys
1910 14
26 2634
15
53
33
4841 38
63
5158 59 58
67
97
8695 95 97 95 94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ABS 2010-12
BBC 2012 Pew 2008 Pew 2009 Pew 2010 Pew 2011 Pew 2012
JapanKoreaIndonesiaChina
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Three Competing Explanations Geopolitical and Security Consideration
Military threatTerritorial disputeCompetition over scare resources
Economic Consideration: Opportunity vs. ChallengeCompatible vs. CompetitiveInterdependence vs. Dependency
Ideological and Cultural ConsiderationConvergence vs. divergence over core valuesCultural affinity vs. cultural distance
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Japan
Korea
Taiwan
MongoliaIndonesia
PhilippinesThailand
MalaysiaSingaporeCambodia
China.000
.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
.000 .100 .200 .300 .400 .500 .600 .700 .800 .900Proportion of Positive View of China
Perc
eived
Dem
ocra
ti Dist
ance
Democratic Distance
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Japan
Korea
TaiwanMongolia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
SingaporeCambodiaChina
-.250
-.200
-.150
-.100
-.050
.000
.050
.100
.150
.000 .100 .200 .300 .400 .500 .600 .700 .800 .900Proportion of Positive View of China
Aver
age
Scor
e of
Soc
ial T
radit
ionali
smCultural Distance
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JapanKorea
Taiwan
Mongolia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Cambodia
China
-.100
.000
.100
.200
.300
.400
.500
.600
.700
.800
.000 .100 .200 .300 .400 .500 .600 .700 .800 .900
Positive Perception of China's Influence
Posit
ive E
valua
tion
of E
cono
mic
Cond
ition
Economic Evaluation
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Japan
KoreaTaiwan
Mongolia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Cambodia
Vietnam
China
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
.000 .100 .200 .300 .400 .500 .600 .700 .800Positive Perception of China's Influence on the Region
Supp
ort f
or E
cono
mic
Open
ness
Support for Economic Openness
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Table 3: Correlation Analysis
Viewing China's
Impact on the Region as Positive
Viewing China's Influence on Our
Country as Positive
Rubric of Cultural Explanation 1. Perceived Democratic Distance -.149** -.180**
2. Social Traditionalism .137** .177**
3. Liberal Democratic Values -.106** -.184**
4. Support for Democracy .029** .028**
Rubric of Economic Explanation 1. Support for Economic
Openness .087** .049**
2. Evaluating Country's Economic Condition .238** .305**
3. Subjective Household Income .075** .066**
4. Currently Employed .048** .043**
Social Background 1. Age -.021* -.020*
2. Education -.055** -.117**
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Economic Explanation At the individual level, the most important
variable predicating a respondent’s view on the rise of China is his/her assessment of the overall economic condition.
People who give an upbeat assessment of the overall economy are more likely to view China as a benign superpower and consider its influence as largely positive.
People who are unhappy with the overall economy tend to view China’s rise in a negative way. In a sense, people tend to blame China for their country's economic malaise.
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Political Values Matter As Well East Asians’ view on China’s rise is also driven
by one’s political perception and beliefs. People who think that their country’s level of
democratic level is significantly more advanced than that of China tend to view China’s rise in a negative way.
People who are less conscious of the difference in political system between China and their own country are more likely to consider China as a benign superpower and evaluate China’s influence in a positive way.
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Conclusion: WidespreadRecognition of China’s Rise
The rise of China has been recognized by the great majority of East Asians.
Its growing influence in the region is more intensively felt by countries that are geographically or culturally proximate to China.
At the same time, there is the phenomenon of “too close for comfort”.
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Southeast Asians are more susceptible to China’s charm
offense. Southeast Asians generally speaking hold a more
sanguine view about the rise of China as their attitudes toward China are driven more by economic consideration and less by security concern or ideological distance.
In a sense, At the same time, the risk and benefit brought about by expanding economic ties with China has distributed very unevenly in many East Asian countries and thus created polarized views over the nature of China’s impact especially in the Northeast Asia countries where laborers, farmers and office workers feel the economic squeeze more strongly.
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Policy Implications The empirical findings we presented above are
largely compatible with the long-running policy pursued by a great majority of East Asian countries.
Contrary to the theoretical prediction of the neorealists, most of them avoid pursuing either a balancing or bandwagoning strategy.
In the face of the intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, most of them avoid having to choose one side at the obvious expense of the other.
Whenever possible they opt for maximizing benefits from deepening economic ties with China while maintaining a close security relation with the United States for hedging potential risks.
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Implications for Taiwan
28pan-blue pan-green nonpartisan.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
80.6
70.3 69.2
7.811.3
7.85.711.8
6.15.9 6.6
16.8
Partisanship and Predicting which country will be most influential in Asia in 10 years
1 China2 USA3 Others9 missing
29pan-blue pan-green nonpartisan0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Partisanship and View on How Much In-fluence Does China Have on our Country(Taiwan Asian Barometer Survey, 2010)
A great deal of influenceSome influenceNot much influenceNo influence at all
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pan-blue pan-green nonpartisan.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Partisanship and View on the Nature of Main-land China's Impact on Taiwan
(Source: ABS Taiwan 2010)
Very positivePositiveSomewhat positiveSomewhat negativeNegativeVery negative
31Elementary Secondary College.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Level of Education and View on Mainland China's Impact on Taiwan
Very positivePositiveSomewhat positiveSomewhat negativeNegativeVery negative
3220-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 over 60
.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Age and View on Mainland China's Imapct on Taiwan
(source: ABS Taiwan 2010)
Very positivePositiveSomewhat positiveSomewhat negativeNegativeVery negative
The Challenges Facing Taiwan The island has become increasingly dependent on
mainland China economically and susceptible to its political influence.
A rising China poses both risks and opportunities to Taiwan.
Taiwanese people are still divided over the risks and benefits arising from the cross-Strait economic integration especially along the partisan line.
It is difficult for the Ma Ying-jeou government to fully unlock the peace dividends without a strong popular backing. It is a catch-22 situation.
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The Strategic Rivalry between U.S. and China
Taiwan is trailing way behind its major competitors, in particular South Korea, over expanding its network of free-trade agreements.
China holds the key to Taiwan’s entrance into regional free trade pact (RCEP)
Taipei faces a tougher challenge as Washington's recent "pivot" to Asia heightens the strategic competition between the US and China
It remains to be seen whether Taipei will soon reach a strategic crossroads where it will become increasingly difficult to maintain its close economic and security ties with the US while deepening its cooperative relationship with Beijing.
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